October 2007 CET

[eddie]

:lol:

Go on - explain Eddie. I'm going to learn something about my flawed logic here!!

You are forgetting about the years prior 1993 that, although warmer than 1993, were colder than the current Jul-Oct period.

[The PIT]

I'm surprised just looking at our figures and I know we're out of the CET zone but not by much and there maybe some regional variations. This is why I'm surprised that it's the coolest period for 107 years. Certainly the coolest since 1993 here though.

A quick look shows the following. Remember this is from our station and not from the CET region.

1956 15.6C 13.3C 13.3C 9.4C = 12.9C

1960 14.9C 14.9C 12.8C 9.7C = 13.1C

1974 14.7C 15.0C 11.5C 7.4C = 12.2C

2007 14.7C 15.2C 13.5C 10.5C* = 13.5C

Anyway off to take Davis ISS to bits since it's dry and staying dry.

[shuggee]

You are forgetting about the years prior 1993 that, although warmer than 1993, were colder than the current Jul-Oct period.

Yep - I can see that now Eddie. My choice of doing A level Pure Maths & Mechanics as opposed to Pure Maths & Statistics is a choice I have often rued~!

So it's only the 56th coldest?

[eddie]

Yep - I can see that now Eddie. My choice of doing A level Pure Maths & Mechanics as opposed to Pure Maths & Statistics is a choice I have often rued~!

So it's only the 56th coldest?

It will end up somewhere around that mark depending upon where October lands. That's since 1900 too. It will rank lower over the entire CET series.

[Weather-history]

People seem to forget just how cold July-December 1993 was

For instance, July to November 1993 was the coldest such period for the CET since 1922 and that it was the 5th coldest such period of the 20th century.

The second half of 1993 was the coldest 2nd half to a year since 1962 and 7th coldest of the 20th century despite December being above average for the CET.

Edited October 27, 2007 by Mr_Data

[The PIT]

Yep - I can see that now Eddie. My choice of doing A level Pure Maths & Mechanics as opposed to Pure Maths & Statistics is a choice I have often rued~!

So it's only the 56th coldest?

Never mind I guess you need to pop out and buy a cheap calculator.

[shuggee]

lol - my abacus has done me fine for years Mr P.

[ukmoose]

Meanwhile...

As for the October CET, unless anything startling happens it looks to me like we're converging on close to 10.9.

I'm not sure about that. Hadley has the current CET at 11.1 and I can't see a cool down from here to the month's end. If anything, there will be a slight rise now, maybe to 11.2 and getting warmer still in to the first part of November.

Moose

[Snowly does it]

I'm not sure about that. Hadley has the current CET at 11.1 and I can't see a cool down from here to the month's end. If anything, there will be a slight rise now, maybe to 11.2 and getting warmer still in to the first part of November.

Moose

There will be a rise today tomorrow but the 29th and 30th look like net downwards with much cooler overnights and relatively unimpressive daytimes. Manley is at 11 and Hadley has in the last 4 months or so mysteriously lost about 0.2 at the end of the month. My money is on the 'official' figure ending up at 11 or possibly 10.9 depending on exactly how mild we are for Sunday.

[Don]

People seem to forget just how cold July-December 1993 was

For instance, July to November 1993 was the coldest such period for the CET since 1922 and that it was the 5th coldest such period of the 20th century.

The second half of 1993 was the coldest 2nd half to a year since 1962 and 7th coldest of the 20th century despite December being above average for the CET.

I certainly remember October and November 1993 being very cold. I think it was around the 20th November where a large group of us did an overnight hike and we were in the middle of that cold north easterly blast and it was very icy and snowing on and off too. We had to camp afterwards and I tell you it was flippin cold!

[SP1986]

To be honest the night time minimums tomorrow looks pretty much average - if we look at the average minimum temperatures for this time of year, they are about 7C which will be pretty much what the next two days will be like, I think more an average outlook in the next two days than below average. Remember the average mean starts cooling rather fast at this time of year. Overall the next couple of days up a little cumulatively, but not much, maybe 0.05C to 0.1C of a degree

[ukmoose]

There will be a rise today tomorrow but the 29th and 30th look like net downwards with much cooler overnights and relatively unimpressive daytimes. Manley is at 11 and Hadley has in the last 4 months or so mysteriously lost about 0.2 at the end of the month. My money is on the 'official' figure ending up at 11 or possibly 10.9 depending on exactly how mild we are for Sunday.

I don't think there will be a downwards movement SM. Daytime temperatures look above average for the rest of the month and night time temperatures around average, not below. My 11.4 punt is clearly too high but it looks like a two horse race between 11.1 and 11.2 to me. We'll see.

Moose

[Snowly does it]

I don't think there will be a downwards movement SM. Daytime temperatures look above average for the rest of the month and night time temperatures around average, not below. My 11.4 punt is clearly too high but it looks like a two horse race between 11.1 and 11.2 to me. We'll see.

Moose

Well, we'll have to differ there - I'd say the overnights look about 5-6 for those two days and the maxima perhaps 12-13, thats an average of about 9-10 which would be a downward movement for those two days, probably offset by today, tomorrow and Wednesday and with Hadley's end of month 'correction' still possible... but yes, we will indeed see.

[Stratos Ferric]

People seem to forget just how cold July-December 1993 was

For instance, July to November 1993 was the coldest such period for the CET since 1922 and that it was the 5th coldest such period of the 20th century.

The second half of 1993 was the coldest 2nd half to a year since 1962 and 7th coldest of the 20th century despite December being above average for the CET.

I haven't checked the numbers myself, but on the basis of your assessment Mr D it may be a long long time before we set a new mark for 6th coldest such period - or colder.

There will be a rise today tomorrow but the 29th and 30th look like net downwards with much cooler overnights and relatively unimpressive daytimes. Manley is at 11 and Hadley has in the last 4 months or so mysteriously lost about 0.2 at the end of the month. My money is on the 'official' figure ending up at 11 or possibly 10.9 depending on exactly how mild we are for Sunday.

I think that's right. I suspect we were within a rounding of 10.9 on Friday, and today's warmth probably therefore won't change the bottom line. Sunday should comfortably nudge the mean past 11.1 though. Much still hinges on the duration of the cold sector Monday - Tuesday, and whether we get two cold nights. Even so, the mean over the final three days should be slightly down. My best reckoning at present actually puts us around 10.97, so it's likely to be 11.0 on rounding on that basis.

I don't think there will be a downwards movement SM. Daytime temperatures look above average for the rest of the month and night time temperatures around average, not below. My 11.4 punt is clearly too high but it looks like a two horse race between 11.1 and 11.2 to me. We'll see.

Moose

I think you're overplaying the minima Moose: clear N-W ly polar airmass Monday / Tuesday mornings; I'd expect lowish single figures, and a cool day between. I think the BBC numbers I've seen today are to high.

[West is Best]

11.0C still on Manley, and that's not rounded.

11.1C after today, and then 3 days which if the 18z GFS is right would come in around 10, 8 and 9.5 giving a final Manley figure of 10.9C. As SF points out, the minima over those three nights will be dictate terms.

[West is Best]

11.0C still on Manley, and that's not rounded.

11.1C after today, and then 3 days which if the 18z GFS is right would come in around 10, 8 and 9.5 giving a final Manley figure of 10.9C. As SF points out, the minima over those three nights will be dictate terms.

Going by the 0z the triumvirate may be cooler: means of 8.5, 8 and 9. If so that would give a final Manley figure of 10.8C rounded down. We shall see!

10.8C would be interesting as within the statistical margin of error for the month to be average against the old 1961-1990 mean (+-0.2C is the statistical margin of error)

Edited October 28, 2007 by West is Best

[kold weather]

Yeah one more very mild day for the time of year followed by a few cooler days as the NW come sin. it strikes me as the type of set-up on Monday and Tuesday that would give mins around 3-6C and maxes between 10-12C. You'd get a drop but probably only by 0.1C given the time of year. Wednesday sees us enter back into the milder days but cooler nights type set-up and exactly how cool depends on how fast the milder air from the Atlantic has got into the UK and how far its got into the eastern side.

Mins overnight were generally between 13-14C. Maxes probably won't be much higher I suspect, wouldn't be surrpsied to see an isolated 16C in the CET zone mind you.

[snowsure]

Is it possible to see real time weather observation data for the CET zone weather stations?

[ukmoose]

I haven't checked the numbers myself, but on the basis of your assessment Mr D it may be a long long time before we set a new mark for 6th coldest such period - or colder.

I think that's right. I suspect we were within a rounding of 10.9 on Friday, and today's warmth probably therefore won't change the bottom line. Sunday should comfortably nudge the mean past 11.1 though. Much still hinges on the duration of the cold sector Monday - Tuesday, and whether we get two cold nights. Even so, the mean over the final three days should be slightly down. My best reckoning at present actually puts us around 10.97, so it's likely to be 11.0 on rounding on that basis.

I think you're overplaying the minima Moose: clear N-W ly polar airmass Monday / Tuesday mornings; I'd expect lowish single figures, and a cool day between. I think the BBC numbers I've seen today are to high.

Possibly, SF, but if it stays breezy for a few days and there's some cloud around too, I think higher minima are quite possible. I will be surprised to see lower single figures and would expect an average around 7 or 8 Monday to Wednesday with day time maxima around 13 or 14 in some CET spots that get some sunshine. The next 24 hours should prop the values up a bit too.

Moose

[West is Best]

Possibly, SF, but if it stays breezy for a few days and there's some cloud around too, I think higher minima are quite possible. I will be surprised to see lower single figures and would expect an average around 7 or 8 Monday to Wednesday with day time maxima around 13 or 14 in some CET spots that get some sunshine. The next 24 hours should prop the values up a bit too.

Moose

Countryfile confirms my earlier assessment. That comes over as clumsily arrogant: but the gist is that after today much fresher for a few days then higher max towards the end of the week. Maxes tomorrow in the 11C to 12C range, after a cool night. Another cool night on Monday, and even again on Tuesday. We're looking at countryside CET lows of 4C in places (possibly even lower).

The CET will be below 11C now. 11.1C after today, then falling. It's a battle between 10.9C and 10.8C for the final figure.

Edited October 28, 2007 by West is Best

[ukmoose]

Countryfile confirms my earlier assessment. That comes over as clumsily arrogant: but the gist is that after today much fresher for a few days then higher max towards the end of the week. Maxes tomorrow in the 11C to 12C range, after a cool night. Another cool night on Monday, and even again on Tuesday. We're looking at countryside CET lows of 4C in places (possibly even lower).

The CET will be below 11C now. 11.1C after today, then falling. It's a battle between 10.9C and 10.8C for the final figure.

Just a question of poor timing then eh WIB? A few days swapped around and 11 plus it would be. Warm start to November though...

Moose

[Stratos Ferric]

Possibly, SF, but if it stays breezy for a few days and there's some cloud around too, I think higher minima are quite possible. I will be surprised to see lower single figures and would expect an average around 7 or 8 Monday to Wednesday with day time maxima around 13 or 14 in some CET spots that get some sunshine. The next 24 hours should prop the values up a bit too.

Moose

We'll definitely be up above 11.1 after today; the average is likely to come in around 13.5. I agree that breeze over the next few days may be rather more of a factor than GFS allows for, but on the other hand, since yesterday, Wednesday is nor progged to be cooler. AS I've been mentioning for the last few days, the location and timing of passing fronts will be vital in the end, and it may yet change further. Even so, the window now looks like 10.9-11. Looks as if the cool run of months has finished for now.

Yeah one more very mild day for the time of year followed by a few cooler days as the NW come sin. it strikes me as the type of set-up on Monday and Tuesday that would give mins around 3-6C and maxes between 10-12C. You'd get a drop but probably only by 0.1C given the time of year. Wednesday sees us enter back into the milder days but cooler nights type set-up and exactly how cool depends on how fast the milder air from the Atlantic has got into the UK and how far its got into the eastern side.

Mins overnight were generally between 13-14C. Maxes probably won't be much higher I suspect, wouldn't be surrpsied to see an isolated 16C in the CET zone mind you.

It's up at 17C perilously close to Malvern.

Edited October 28, 2007 by Stratos Ferric

[Stu_London]

Even so, the window now looks like 10.9-11. Looks as if the cool run of months has finished for now.

Another month likely to be below the 10 year running mean however. Is that significant?

[jemtom]

I'm still pretty comfy with my call of 11.0c

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'm still pretty comfy with my call of 11.0c

Thats going to be extremely close. However, it wouldn't have if the significant warmth you called for earlier in the month came off

BFTP