December C.E.T

[West is Best]

In the Novemeber thread there was a massive slanging match between Sf and WiB, so that may account for it. If the Admins hadnt stepeed in this thread could be a 60-pager.

No it's because I knew the weather would do all the talking necessary this month

Below average. No need to say more.

Edited January 1, 2008 by La Nina

[kippure]

What is the final figure for the december cet?

[West is Best]

What is the final figure for the december cet?

4.9C official http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

[Mondy]

Snowsure, do you know ANYTHING about psychology, other than what can be divined from quizzes in "the Sun"? Just checking...

Is there any need for that SF?

To an outsider (me) it smacks of desperation; of a person losing his grip on reality. Capital letters construe shouting. For one so vocal on many a thread, i'd hate to think you're irked at the fact below average occured?

May i suggest re-charging your half empty glass and pipe down a little?

[snowsure]

Is there any need for that SF?

To an outsider (me) it smacks of desperation; of a person losing his grip on reality. Capital letters construe shouting. For one so vocal on many a thread, i'd hate to think you're irked at the fact below average occured?

May i suggest re-charging your half empty glass and pipe down a little?

I forgive SF his little tirade as I feel that I must have hit a raw nerve. I will drop a plaster off next time I am snowed up in Hawes!

Perhaps his glass is half-full? Pipe on SF! I don't mind one bit.

[Roger J Smith]

I noticed the NW tracker fell to about 4.6 before Christmas and recovered to 5.3 at the end of the month, so I'm just wondering, what is the official final number or do we know yet? I realize it's Manley (very manly, indeed).

As for the various ongoing six blind men and the elephant discussions, surely the matter of whether it is above or below 4.950000000000000000001 and can be rounded up or down is not sufficient cause to get too worked up, especially on this planet at this stage in its overall condition. My motto is this -- if you're taking flak, then you're over the target, or just in the wrong air space.

I don't know what that means, and at this point of Hogmanay, I don't much care. :o :o

[West is Best]

I noticed the NW tracker fell to about 4.6 before Christmas and recovered to 5.3 at the end of the month, so I'm just wondering, what is the official final number or do we know yet? I realize it's Manley (very manly, indeed).

The official final figure on both Manley and Hadley is 4.9C Roger, or did you mean the tracker?

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks, LN ... No, I understand how they come up with the NW CET number, I meant the Manley, I didn't hear that it had been finalized. About the only days that were really close to the average were the last three, everything else was either well above or well below, it does make you think, if it's that relatively easy to have two weeks of cold weather, why not a whole month? We already know how easy it is to have a whole month of warmth.

I suppose 27 February to 23 March is almost a whole month, in February terms at least, so 2006 almost had an entirely cold "month" but the wait continues for a return to winter months proper with means significantly below normal.

In terms of the structure of the monthly temperature profile, I am fairly happy with my research-driven result, especially in its verbal rather than numerical form, the main problem for my estimate was that the mid-month high was probably a little colder and longer-lasting than I had expected and this also fed into the post-Christmas warmup being a tad less dramatic, although that was minor. It makes me feel like I may be on the right trail up the mountain, realizing that I am still in the rainforest and the peak is Himalayan.

[J10]

Results are in and Thanks for your patience.

Snowyowl9 (1st) , noggin (2nd) and Summer of 95 (3rd) all got the CET of 4.9c correct, but are split by the timings of their entries.

[The PIT]

Oh dear Oh dear why did I go for 5.9C should have stuck at 5.1C. Grrr.

[noggin]

I can't see the files with the results in........this silly computer and even sillier operator don't have what it takes to open files! I don't suppose I figure anywhere, do I?

I only ask because I've got it right twice in the latter part of the year and a close call once. I don't know if that's enough to give me any sort of position in the top 50 or anything....

[The PIT]

I can't see the files with the results in........this silly computer and even sillier operator don't have what it takes to open files! I don't suppose I figure anywhere, do I?

I only ask because I've got it right twice in the latter part of the year and a close call once. I don't know if that's enough to give me any sort of position in the top 50 or anything....

Tried right click and save as???

[J10]

I can't see the files with the results in........this silly computer and even sillier operator don't have what it takes to open files! I don't suppose I figure anywhere, do I?

I only ask because I've got it right twice in the latter part of the year and a close call once. I don't know if that's enough to give me any sort of position in the top 50 or anything....

You are in 2nd place.

[noggin]

You are in 2nd place.

WHAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAYYYYYY ..........blimey o'reilly :lol: :lol: :lol: Cheers, JACKONE.

[Stu_London]

WHAAAAAHHHHHHAAAAAAYYYYYY ..........blimey o'reilly :lol: :lol: :lol: Cheers, JACKONE.

Remember that the competition is only one month old - it runs December to November

[noggin]

Tried right click and save as???

Cheers, PIT, I'm embarassed to admit that I haven't got "Word" to save it into.

Technology and I are not good bedfellows. :lol:

Remember that the competition is only one month old - it runs December to November

Oh.......I've just deflated.

Well, it was nice whilst it lasted. :lol: :lol:

[snowsure]

Cheers, PIT, I'm embarassed to admit that I haven't got "Word" to save it into.

http://support.microsoft.com/kb/891090

Try the above link for a Microsoft Word viewer.

[noggin]

Cheers, snowsure!

That looks just the job! But I'd better wait until one of my daughters turns up before I do anything beyond reading the link. I will probably end up blowing this thing up if I try to do it myself.

Edited January 2, 2008 by noggin

[Stratos Ferric]

Oh dear Oh dear why did I go for 5.9C should have stuck at 5.1C. Grrr.

OOoh, I don't know, it could have been worse!!!

[ukmoose]

Results are in and Thanks for your patience.

Snowyowl9 (1st) , noggin (2nd) and Summer of 95 (3rd) all got the CET of 4.9c correct, but are split by the timings of their entries.

Thanks for all the input there Jackone - it is much appreciated.

105th place for me - not bad then!

Moose

[Stratos Ferric]

Thanks for all the input there Jackone - it is much appreciated.

105th place for me - not bad then!

Moose

Thank heavens for you and I both that there's still eleven months to run - and remember that last year only one person the entire year without being more than 2.0C out on at least one occasion - and not the eventual winner either.

The golf adage about losing the tournament in the first round perhaps doesn't apply to the CET comp, I hope!

Thanks for all the input there Jackone - it is much appreciated.

Moose

Hear hear: Jacko does a cracking job, as do the often unheralded compilers of the starting line list too. What always impresses me is that now it just seems to happen without any prompting being necessary, an excellent example of a community at work.

[J10]

JPG version of scores, if anyone wants the figures in a different version please let me know.

http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/read...l?promoid=BONRM is the latest Abode Reader for the PDF file, this is free software.

[reef]

An interesting twist, Phillip Eden's Manley CET final figure has come in at 5.06C for the month.

http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

Hadley of course has come in at 4.9C.

Perhaps we should use the Hadley average for the competition (we technically have already). It is updated frequently now and often released just a few days after the end of the month. Plus, as we can see, the Manley figure is subject to changes when the month is over, just like some were worried that the Hadley value might.

[osmposm]

Presumably the whole scoreboard will now need to be changed? Or do we work to the provisional Manley figure as shown immediately.....except that it's not always immediate, as Philip Eden sometimes doesn't update for several days when he's away or too busy? And besides, we must (I imagine) accept that a final, adjusted figure is "truer" than a provisional one?

All very confusing, not to mention exasperating for Jackone. Personally, I don't mind which figure we take as long as it is clear from the outset of each year's competition (and if both are now subject to revision then there seems little to choose between them). But to change it at any other time seems unfair. In last year's comp I was several times closer to Hadley than Manley, and thus "lost" points. But for this first month of the new Dec-Jan year the adjusted Manley figure will favour me over the adjusted Hadley. I might feel a little miffed if I lose out in both departments!?

Ossie

Edited January 4, 2008 by osmposm

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

JPG version of scores, if anyone wants the figures in a different version please let me know.

http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/read...l?promoid=BONRM is the latest Abode Reader for the PDF file, this is free software.

Great work JACK, shame my guess wasnt as good

:smiliz34:omg

Edited January 4, 2008 by RAIN RAIN RAIN