December C.E.T

[The PIT]

I hope you didn't use the BBC 5-Day forecast for bristol? It's notoriously inaccurate, if you're using the GFS 2M then it's also inaccurate when usijng it for precise locations.

If the CET drops to 4.4c today then it would take 2 days averaging 9.0c to raise it upto 4.7c. If maxima averages around 8.0c and minima 4.0c that's an overall average of just 6.0c. It would take 2 days of this to raise the CET by 0.1c!

I think you can forget any 24 hour periods averaging close to 8.5c. By the 25th it won't be any higher then 4.6c on climate-uk.

Much better than people think normally right for our place. Classic case of once it's get a bad rep no one bothers looking. In this case it's better than the week ahead forecast which predicted temps of 9C to 11C North to South in the CET region. Like you point out time is running out but there's eight days left. Today the Max's will come overnight as the wind freshens. I'm pretty sure it'll heading towards 5c by the end of the week.

[Mark Bayley]

I think i will change mine from 4.9c to 5.8c please

Thanks

Mark

I should have stuck with 4.9c insted of changing :lol:

Edited December 23, 2007 by mark bayley

[Snowly does it]

4.5C on Manley, with no rounding.

How do you want to post my virtual steak Charlotte?

Another hard frost in CET land this last night, so a further fall coming up too ...

Hands up, its a fair cop!!!!!!

Just drove 200 miles home through some sort of soup to find I am losing virtual steaks too, merry crimblies!

[kold weather]

I'll be shocked if maxes get widely upto 9-11C on more then 2 days in this upcoming week and Boxing day looks pretty close to average as does Friday, Monday will probably also come close to average thanks to the mins...

However firstly we have today where the CET will very likely drop as we have quite a stagnant fog present across the CET land, maxes have been only between 0-3C in that region with some areas on the way to an ice day...the CEt may well have also averaged below 0C today which will further drag the CET downwards.

[Stu_London]

4.7C to 4.9C is the most likely range now (85% confidence)

which would put the following in the frame for this month:-

04.7c chionomaniac

04.8c Potent Gust

04.8c Optimus Prime

04.8c Snooz

04.8c snowsure

04.9c Snowyowl9

04.9c noggin

04.9c Summer of

[Polar Continental]

Looks above average for the first week, but looking for a switch around afterwards, 3.5c :w00t: for me please.

Paul

Well looks as though I will be quite a bit out with my CET punt, but wasn’t very far out with the temperature round here, current mean here in Burton only 3.7c.

Only made 3c here today and many areas below that in the CET zone.

The temperature is on the way down again fairly widely, currently below freezing for many areas in the zone, but this will rise though before the morning I think, so possibly the maximum for the day during the hours of darkness.

So the last real cold weather for the rest of the month and a slow rise in the CET setting in from tomorrow onwards.

Paul

[ukmoose]

Well looks as though I will be quite a bit out with my CET punt, but wasn’t very far out with the temperature round here, current mean here in Burton only 3.7c.

Only made 3c here today and many areas below that in the CET zone.

The temperature is on the way down again fairly widely, currently below freezing for many areas in the zone, but this will rise though before the morning I think, so possibly the maximum for the day during the hours of darkness.

So the last real cold weather for the rest of the month and a slow rise in the CET setting in from tomorrow onwards.

Paul

Well, the fog didn't clear here today nor did the frost so pretty much an 'ice day' due to the fog. Really icy out there still at the moment - but for how long?

Have to agree with your assessment of rising temperatures from here on in though to the end of the month. Difficult to say how much of a dent it will put in the current CET, perhaps not that much. Disappointing to see temperatures rising, but, c'est la vie.

Moose

[West is Best]

From Monday onwards so you can forget about 4.5C by the looks of it.

According to the 18z the final CET would pan out around 4.6C. You did say there was no chance at all of something sub-5C, but I think that looks a possibility, although it's hard to tell sometimes with milder spells.

[Stratos Ferric]

4.7C to 4.9C is the most likely range now (85% confidence)

which would put the following in the frame for this month:-

04.7c chionomaniac

04.8c Potent Gust

04.8c Optimus Prime

04.8c Snooz

04.8c snowsure

04.9c Snowyowl9

04.9c noggin

04.9c Summer of

If you can see 4.7 then I'd suggest 5.0 is in bounds as well, however on the latest run 4.8-4.9 looks likeliest: it all rather hinges on just where the polar front sits so there's still some potential movement either way.

[West is Best]

Hands up, its a fair cop!!!!!!

Just drove 200 miles home through some sort of soup to find I am losing virtual steaks too, merry crimblies!

Down to 4.3C now Charlotte and without rounding too!

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0712.htm

I think that's probably the low point of the month though now!

[Snowly does it]

Down to 4.3C now Charlotte and without rounding too!

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0712.htm

I think that's probably the low point of the month though now!

No, my writing off sub-par in the PM of the 1st December and then losing the bet to you are the 'low points'!

[snowsure]

Ah but WiB, we've had this discussion more than once already this autumn. The argument hinges on continuing cold. Yes, we're due a big drop to the 20th, say, but in the christmas pudding cold that persists more than 10 days is rare indeed. The suggestion is that we would have spent most of this month's allowance by the 20th and continuing cold would be very unlikely. I grant you it's not impossible, but equally, it's also not impossible that the pattern will break before then, and that the surface won't be quite so cold as GFE has been suggesting.

It's a fair point to say extrapolate from the 20th, but it presupposes we get there on 4.5C. I must admit that on the basis of charts I've been looking at that seems a tad low, surprising though this must be to everyone given your recent record of impartial assessment.

Eddie, good chart. How's about reverse engineering as well. Of the months that did finish 4.7 or below, where were they on the 10th. The fact that it might not have happened before doesn't rule it out absolutely of course, but it would, in the even larger teapot, make any such occurrence this time all the more notable.

How do you feel now about your comments SF?

Has this December been rare and notable?

[Stu_London]

How do you feel now about your comments SF?

Pretty Sheepish I imagine.

Yesterday came in colder than i thought, so any thoughts of 5.0 are now in the unlikely range rather than marginal range that could be argued for yesterday.

If you can see 4.7 then I'd suggest 5.0 is in bounds as well, however on the latest run 4.8-4.9 looks likeliest: it all rather hinges on just where the polar front sits so there's still some potential movement either way.

I actually thought 4.7 to 4.8 were likely and 4.9 a bit marginal

I included 4.9 because of the UK climate ability to throw up a very mild night and day from nowhere

[The PIT]

Well when you get the final figures in December won't be that remarkable presuming the rise in CET does happen. Just going to be slightly below normal. For us it'll be the coldest December since 2001 if it stays at it's present value. Got away with no change yesterday but I don't think we will today.

[kold weather]

Down to 4.3C now Charlotte and without rounding too!

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0712.htm

I think that's probably the low point of the month though now!

Yeah thats going to be the low point, not surprise dit went so low as some places got an ice day (even using Mr.Data's classification) and in general the CET must have averaged close to 0C...one hell of a turnaround compared to the start of the month...the period from the 8-22nd must be one of the colder ones we've had recently.

[Duncan McAlister]

Looks like the CET zone will see average temps of 10-20C, whilst NW Scotland and many areas of Scandinavia and Siberia melt in unseasonably warm temperatures of 30C+ B)

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

S Scotland and N England looking positively Arctic next week. Think WX Maps has been on the pre-Christmas 'swally'!

Merry Christmas folks! B) :smiliz39:

Edited December 24, 2007 by Duncan McAlister

[The PIT]

Looks like the CET zone will see average temps of 10-20C, whilst NW Scotland and many areas of Scandinavia and Siberia melt in unseasonably warm temperatures of 30C+ B)

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

S Scotland and N England looking positively Arctic next week. Think WX Maps has been on the pre-Christmas 'swally'!

Merry Christmas folks! B) :smiliz39:

La Nina will go into melt down when he sees that.

Well we've got close to 9C today so I guess it's coming.

[PersianPaladin]

La Nina will go into melt down when he sees that.

Well we've got close to 9C today so I guess it's coming.

10C+ above the 1900-2000 rolling mean?

I'm sorry but that is pretty suspicious in my eyes.

[The PIT]

10C+ above the 1900-2000 rolling mean?

I'm sorry but that is pretty suspicious in my eyes.

Total nonsense really isn't it.

[Stratos Ferric]

Pretty Sheepish I imagine.

Yesterday came in colder than i thought, so any thoughts of 5.0 are now in the unlikely range rather than marginal range that could be argued for yesterday.

I actually thought 4.7 to 4.8 were likely and 4.9 a bit marginal

I included 4.9 because of the UK climate ability to throw up a very mild night and day from nowhere

Much may hinge on subtleties of timing - as we've seen once or twice recently maxima have been set overnight at times ahead of an incoming change in airmass, and compared to yesterday the 28th threatens another such spanner. The latest run I'm looking at suggests 4.9 or 4.8, particulary as GFS appears to have Boxing Day far too cold on the max-min charts.

[The PIT]

A 0.2C degree increase yesterday for us. Should be less today however more mild stuff to come. Prog tempos from Breakfast tele forecast 6C to 10C in CET zone during the day didn't see overnight temps.

[West is Best]

Morning all.

The CET headline figure remains unchanged on 4.3C (Manley), although the rounding now has it on 4.35C.

To get to 5C from here the mean over the remaining seven days would need to be 7.23C. Today and tomorrow will be fairly neutral, so you can effectively say that from Thursday onwards the remaining five days need to average 10.12C. The GFS projects the actual figure to be closer to 7C, giving a final CET of around 4.8C.

That would be below the 1971-2000 mean (5.1C) and the 10 year mean (5.3C). I don't want to count chickens but it's a remarkable turnaround. I think in the history of the CET it's unprecedented from the position after the first 10 days

[kold weather]

The problem is the GFS will almost certainly be too low this week in regards to its temps, it normally is in these sorts of westerlies and whilst not that much milder I think the beeb is probably going to be closer to the turth...

The mins so far have come out at between 4-6C generally in the CET zone though its higher still south of the M4 between 6-9C. However given the rainfall that is present I doubt temps will rise much today and so maxes will probably end up between 6-8C I'd imagine, higher where the mins didnt fall very far.

[West is Best]

Maybe Kold, but the GFS has been remarkably accurate the past two months, and actually has several times had minima too high.

[kold weather]

Either way the CET is going to end up close to average which considering the very mild start is pretty impressive, esp to get down to 4.3C as the low point of the month is a drop of nearly 5C in about 16-18 days!

I think anyone who doesn't call what we've just a cold spell is not really looking at the facts IMO!

Indeed the stats show that the period between the 9-22nd was the joint (tohugh this may change as the offical stats come in the future as Jan 01 also came close) coldest spell since late Dec/early Jan 97...with December 2001.

Edited December 25, 2007 by kold weather