December C.E.T

[The PIT]

I went for 5.9C adjusting before the start of the month which seems to have got lost.

Anyway sub five won't happen so I'm going between 5C and 5.5C. Being bold and if I'm wrong I' say Yeh I'm wrong. No mods req if anyone rubs it in. Just give Give abuse without swearing. B)

[West is Best]

Anyway sub five won't happen

Right that's sorted then B)

We're heading way down into the 4's by the end of the weekend, so any lift next week will need to be very marked this late in the month. Not impossible to get it back into the 5's by any means, but it's not really showing up on the models sufficiently until later.

Edited December 20, 2007 by La Nina

[Snowly does it]

Right that's sorted then B)

We're heading way down into the 4's by the end of the weekend, so any lift next week will need to be very marked this late in the month. Not impossible to get it back into the 5's by any means, but it's not really showing up on the models sufficiently until later.

Quite

Although we are not going to be THAT far into the fours Richard!

[West is Best]

Quite

Although we are not going to be THAT far into the fours Richard!

It's currently 5.25C and should be around 4.8C after today.

Should be 4.3C after Sunday's update I reckon, or possibly 4.4C.

[Snowly does it]

It's currently 5.25C and should be around 4.8C after today.

Should be 4.3C after Sunday's update I reckon, or possibly 4.4C.

No chance

4.6 the lowest point for the month

A virtual steak on it?

[West is Best]

No chance

4.6 the lowest point for the month

A virtual steak on it?

OK absolutely! B)

[Snowly does it]

OK absolutely!

remind me again, how far ahead am I in these bets? An entire herd, the shirt off your back and some baubles from your Xmas tree that took my eye I believe? B)

Edited December 20, 2007 by snowmaiden

[West is Best]

remind me again, how far ahead am I in these bets? An entire herd, the shirt off your back and some baubles from your Xmas tree that took my eye I believe? B)

I think I'm in the lead Charlotte!

[Snowly does it]

I think I'm in the lead Charlotte!

Its quite possible that I let you think that.

Anyway, you're going to lose this one.

My 5.1 looks awesomely spot on B)

[West is Best]

Its quite possible that I let you think that.

Anyway, you're going to lose this one.

My 5.1 looks awesomely spot on B)

As I just PM'd The Pit, I actually think it could be around that 5C figure, below or above. What I don't think one can say is definitely that it won't be below 5C. As we'll get down to 4.5C or thereabouts it'll take a big haul next week to raise it, and if hp is close by we can forget it. Cold nights will put paid to any rise.

p.s. really shocked about the balance of payments out today ...

Edited December 20, 2007 by La Nina

[Snowly does it]

As I just PM'd The Pit, I actually think it could be around that 5C figure, below or above. What I don't think one can say is definitely that it won't be below 5C. As we'll get down to 4.5C or thereabouts it'll take a big haul next week to raise it, and if hp is close by we can forget it. Cold nights will put paid to any rise.

p.s. really shocked about the balance of payments out today ...

Watching chickens come home to roost is always a shocker.

'4.5 or thereabouts' - so 4.6 then? B)

[West is Best]

Watching chickens come home to roost is always a shocker.

'4.5 or thereabouts' - so 4.6 then? B)

lol!!!!

I've bet you it'll go below 4.5C before any rise ... and I'm confident.

[Snowly does it]

lol!!!!

I've bet you it'll go below 4.5C before any rise ... and I'm confident.

So am I B)

[The PIT]

Put it this way I think my 5.9C is somewhere on mars.

[reef]

A suprisingly large drop in the Manley CET today to 4.95C (4.9C rounded down), a result of an average minima of -5C in the zone. Maxima meanwhile were around 2.7C, so a mean temperature well below freezing.

[West is Best]

There are some low low maxima followed by low low minima in the offing. So sub-5C after 20th is looking very likely.

That was a week ago: the GFS are getting temps pretty spot on at the moment for up to around a week ahead. The current CET (Manley) is 4.9C

So, running through the current projections the CET will dip to 4.5C after Sunday (probably just losing me my bet with Charlotte!) before slowly rising. If the 6z is right it would be on 4.9C by 30th, and then just nipping up to 5C on 31st.

A lot to play for here, especially with height rise showing on the 6z. We may be in for some cold upgrades to keep it pegged below 5C ... and then again we might not!

[Duncan McAlister]

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

It's been a good inversion for bringing temperatures to average or just below, across all regions of the UK (except Ireland and Northern Scotland). For example on the 15th, W Scotland was a +1C anomaly, it is now bang on average. I feared it might just be the usual frosts in central and southern England and cloudy mildness in Scotland. Instead there have been double figure minima in the Highlands and we've had good sharp frosts in the SW too.

[memories of 63]

...... and then just nipping up to 5C on 31st.

A lot to play for here, especially with height rise showing on the 6z. We may be in for some cold upgrades to keep it pegged below 5C ... and then again we might not!

Hope it's 5.0 as that was my punt about this time last month!!

[Weather-history]

An amazing split

1st-10th: 8.1 (+2.6)

11th-20th: 1.7 (-3.4)

[eddie]

It seems almost certain that we will get below 4.5C by the end of the 24th and that means we would need the final part of December to record a CET > 7.2 to finish above average.

I'm guessing that a below average finish has to be favorite now.

[The PIT]

Unexpected very cold day today with temps are just getting above freezing. Just dull and cloudy and we weren't in any fog at all. It was also one of those strange days despite being below zero no frost and the grass min being higher than the air temp. Presuming that the temps won't rise overnight it's going to make a another dint in our average which is now down to 3.9C. Well below CET of 5C when correctly rounded. I'm presuming that the CET zone was equally cold today.

[Nick H]

So, to keep things in perspective, this month is certain to be considerably warmer than 2001, highly likely to be warmer than 2005 and maybe on a par - or even slightly warmer - than 2003.

Meaning there will have been as many Decembers colder than this one since 2000 than there have been warmer. Overall, a very average month in terms of rainfall (which will rise next week), sunshine totals (which will fall next week) and temperature (which will rise slightly in the next week).

My hunch is for the coldest December since 2005 - a fact remarkable in its unremarkability.

Edited December 21, 2007 by Nick H

[West is Best]

Barring something unexpected it will probably be less cold than all of those three Nick.

However ... the 10 year mean is 5.25C, and the 1971-2000 mean is 5.1C. The key thing here is probably the context of the preceding 5 months that mark this out as a potentially significant 6 month cooldown. There's no real doubt about this latter now. What matters is whether it continues, or whether we revert back to the warming we were in. For that reason January and February, which have in recent years been generally very mild, are important months.

[West is Best]

No chance

4.6 the lowest point for the month

A virtual steak on it?

4.6C already Charlotte on Manley. I'm going to win my steak!!!

[West is Best]

4.6C already Charlotte on Manley. I'm going to win my steak!!!

If, and it remains a big if, the 0z verifies the final CET will be around 4.5C ... that's considerably below recent projections.