December C.E.T

[damianslaw]

Looking like another CET ending up in the near average category but this time below average, all following on from the trend set since July of CET values being close or very close to the average with no extremes.

[reef]

The Manley average has now risen to 4.8C unrounded:

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Many places were still in double figures at midnight tonight, so we'll probably see another increase tomorrow despite cooler temperatures during the day.

4.8C or 4.9C now looking most likely, very little change after tomorrow with close to average temperatures progged for the remainder of the month.

[The PIT]

Looking like another CET ending up in the near average category but this time below average, all following on from the trend set since July of CET values being close or very close to the average with no extremes.

The extremes are there but within the month cancelling each other out. Should have stuck to my original CET guess. At least I wouldn't have been a degree or more out.

[J10]

Just to let everyone know, the scores for the December 07 contest, will be posted up here on Wed 2 Jan.

The spreadsheet is ready pending the final CET results, but I'm not going have a chance to update it on the 1st Jan.

[The PIT]

Up to 4.8C no rounding for the 28th. Should be another rise Yesterday and Today. I think about 5C will be the final outcome. Hadley above 5.1C. Basically an average month with extremes hidden away within the final figure.

[West is Best]

Up to 4.8C no rounding for the 28th. Should be another rise Yesterday and Today. I think about 5C will be the final outcome. Hadley above 5.1C. Basically an average month with extremes hidden away within the final figure.

Manley on 4.9C with no rounding so another below average month is now certain. A good start to winter!

I wouldn't bank on that Hadley figure. They usually take some off the Hadobs figure.

This continues the trend begun last summer.

[Optimus Prime]

Manley on 4.9C with no rounding so another below average month is now certain. A good start to winter!

As I've always said before, an average/slightly below December doesn't bode well for a hood cold January and February. 2005 had a pretty cold December and was followed by quite a seasonal January and February. December 2003 was slightly cold yet was followed by a mild January/Cool February.

December 2001 was cold and followed a mild January and February but at the time did show great potential.

It may sound a little harsh but unless we get a decent cold December the following two months will never be cold. I'm talking about a December CET 3.0c or below.

So by going by this rule this coming January and February will be average at best.

[Kentish Man]

I presume you are talking "christmas pudding" here OP. Dec 84 recorded a near to average 5.2C followed by a severe 0.8C in Jan, a very cold 2.1C in Feb and a decidedly chilly 4.7C in March.

My own guess for Dec of 6.6C is going to be way out. The models on 30 Nov indicated a very mild first 15 days then we all know what happened. Just shows how you can be caught out particularly in the winter months.

Edited December 31, 2007 by Kentish Man

[West is Best]

As I've always said before, an average/slightly below December doesn't bode well for a hood cold January and February. 2005 had a pretty cold December and was followed by quite a seasonal January and February. December 2003 was slightly cold yet was followed by a mild January/Cool February.

December 2001 was cold and followed a mild January and February but at the time did show great potential.

It may sound a little harsh but unless we get a decent cold December the following two months will never be cold. I'm talking about a December CET 3.0c or below.

So by going by this rule this coming January and February will be average at best.

There is no such rule, and I think (at least I hope) you know that. All you are advising is a statistical analysis, but that's not metereology ... with respect.

However, I do agree that this will be a very very interesting test. We've seen synoptics completely out of kilter with the old even larger teapot the past 6 months. The jet in particular has been much more amplified, and meridional, with considerable buckling south of the UK ... as shown on the latest 6z run for instance. This has manifested in a six month spell that has bucked the warm up trend, and is more akin in both temperature and synoptics to the 1980's. That being the case, many of us will be looking for a repeat of something akin to 1984/5 which had a 5.2C December followed by a 0.8C and 2.1C Jan / Feb or 1985/6 which had a 6.3C December followed by a 3.5C and -1.1C Jan / Feb ... rather going to show that the notion of an average December followed by mild Jan / Feb is, well, bunkam. KM - snap!

Edited December 31, 2007 by La Nina

[Optimus Prime]

We all have differing views WIB I know as well as you do the last 6 months has been nothing like the 80s, it's been cooler then what we're used to but relative to the norm it's nothing special. No areas of the globe has had excessive cold, parts of Europe had a cold Autumn, indeed it was 2c below in some parts of Europe this Autumn which unsurprisingly are the same places that recorded a cold Winter 2005/2006.

However this is greatly offset by the extremely warm Autumn all of Russia and Asia has been experiencing. If things are changing back to the olden' days you would expect a large area of cold rather then a relatively small area of Europe. But it's an interesting concept that the globe has perhaps cooled very slightly since the La Nina event. And it's a big IF whether it's cooled at all. Current data shows it's still warming, just look at the arctic! South America (as you would expect being next door to Nina) has cooled rapidly but it's never been a country that has warmed like the rest of us so much.

Back to the discussion in hand I do firmly believe a cold December has a tendancy to lead into a cold winter, perhaps unsurprisingly considering most of Decembers severe cold occurs towards the end with blocking to the east. A few examples;

1906/1907 (first cold winter of the 20th century;

Dec 3.0c

Jan 3.6c

Feb 2.8c

1916/1917

1.9c

1.6c

0.9c

1935/1936

2.8c

3.7c

2.6c

1939/1940

3.2c

-1.4c

2.6c

1940/1941

3.8c

0.5c

3.5c

1944

3.6c

0.4c

7.1c

1946/1947

3.1c

2.2c

-1.9c

1950/1951

1.2c

3.9c

3.7c

1952/1953

2.8c

3.3c

4.3c

1962/1963

1.8c

-2.1c

-0.7c

1968/1969

3.0c

5.5c

1.0c

1969/1970

3.3c

3.7c

2.9c

1976/1977

2.0c

2.8c

5.2c

1978/1979

3.9c

-0.4c

1.2c

1981/1982

0.3c

2.6c

4.8c

1990/1991

4.3c

3.3c

1.5c

1995/1996

2.3c

4.3c

2.5c

Ok these are a few biased examples, in some cases in doesn't work but in many, if you get a cold December you can be pretty sure the following 2 months won't be mild.

[West is Best]

Current data shows it's still warming, just look at the arctic! South America (as you would expect being next door to Nina) has cooled rapidly but it's never been a country that has warmed like the rest of us so much.

I don't agree with this. The US is currently experiencing a snowy, cold, winter as is parts of Canada. The antarctic which contains 90% of the earth's ice and is therefore it could be argued 9 times more important has a huge +ve ice anomaly at the moment compared to the 1971-2000 mean. Ice levels are way up on the norm there.

I do firmly believe a cold December has a tendancy to lead into a cold winter [...] Ok these are a few biased examples, in some cases in doesn't work but in many, if you get a cold December you can be pretty sure the following 2 months won't be mild.

Yes, as you say both biased and selective and therefore of little relevance.

You did also say a mild December leads to a mild January, which isn't true historically nor metereologically ... and anyway at around about 4.9C this is a below average month rather leaving the whole argument in tatters, if you don't mind my saying so.

[Optimus Prime]

I think we can disregard Antarctica as being a bit of a quirk, being well away from all the human affects in the Northern Hemisphere it's bound to fair better then the Arctic.

Anyway, my statistics are in for this month;

Review;

Quite sunny, Cold and dry overall with a long frosty period. Very mild start and end but a long dry and cold middle more then compensating for the mild

Extremely warm upto the 10th with maxima generally into double figures. It reached 13.7c on the 6th and dropping no lower then 11.4c on the 5th. It was also unsettled during this period.

From the 11th-23rd it was always cold, frosty and settled. During this period the average temperature was just 1.1c. The maximum temperature on the 20th was just 2.1c after a minimum of -6.1c, the lowest December reading since at least 2003. It was very frosty with 13 frosts recorded.

The remaining week was milder and slightly more unsettled.

Highest Temperature; 13.7c (6th)

Lowest Temperature; -6.1c (20th)

Mean minimum; 2.6c (-1.4c)

Mean Maximum; 7.4c (+0.4c)

Average 5.0c (-0.5c)

[The PIT]

Manley on 4.9C with no rounding so another below average month is now certain. A good start to winter!

I wouldn't bank on that Hadley figure. They usually take some off the Hadobs figure.

This continues the trend begun last summer.

Only just. Another rise today likely although it shouldn't make any real difference. Basically would be described as an close to average month, below average rainfall and above average sunshine. Pity we had those warm spells otherwise a very below average month would have been the likely outcome.

[Optimus Prime]

Pit;

What are your stats for the month?

[West is Best]

I think we can disregard Antarctica as being a bit of a quirk, being well away from all the human affects in the Northern Hemisphere it's bound to fair better then the Arctic.

That's a new one to me. I wonder why up until this year the Antarctic has been the focus of so many news reports then? Odd that now the ice is doing really well it's suddenly not important to the AGW brigade (not popping at you of course).

As far as I understand it the poles take the effects of alleged AGW far more than the equatorial zones because of the way the heat is forced into them so I don't think your argument works. Indeed, what you seem to be suggesting is more akin to urbanisation than global warming it seems to me ...

Hadobs is in on 5.2C. If the previous months are anything to go by we can expect a proper Hadley figure something like 0.2C to 0.3C below this.

Edited December 31, 2007 by La Nina

[The PIT]

Pit;

What are your stats for the month?

Max 7.1C bang on average should go up a little.

Min 1.6C -0.8C again should rise again more so than the max.

At present 4.4C -0.5C from average rounding up. Possibly it could go to around 4.5C.

Rainfall 67.4mm 75.1% of average.

[West is Best]

Manley CET for December finished on 4.9C

Another below average month, 0.2C below the 1971-2000 mean, and 0.35C below the 10 year rolling mean.

Anyway sub five won't happen

Edited January 1, 2008 by La Nina

[North-Easterly Blast]

Optimus Prime;

That is not entirely true that a cold December often leads to a cold winter. It certainly wasn't in 2001-02, and Feb & Mar 1997 were very mild after a cold December, and the same applied in Feb/Mar 1945. Dec 1992 was also quite cold but Jan and Feb were not. Feb 1982 was also above average after the very cold Dec, and so was Feb 1977. Even after the very cold December of 1950 both the Jan & Feb 1951 were not particularly cold.

I will also point out to you that 1968-69 was also a very unusual winter, in that Feb was so cold after a mild Jan (4.5*C colder). Looking at the records it is very rare for a cold February to occur after a January that is much above average and the drop in CET from Jan/Feb 1969 is among the top five biggest drops on record. Only 1969 and 1983 are examples of where a mild January has been followed by a very cold February. Many of the other big drops in CET from Jan to Feb (4*C+) have occurred when a very severe February has followed a cold January, like 1947.

[Weather-history]

Once again the second half of the month was below average

Second Half 3.7 -1.1

Since May, the most the second half of a month has been above average for Manley is 0.1C

[The PIT]

Final figures for the month.

Max temp 7.2C 0.1C above normal.

Min temp 1.7C -0.7C below normal.

4.5C overall for the month for us.

Rainfall 70.1mm just 78.1% of average and another in a series of dry months.

I see the month in the old CET region has managed to sneak just under at 4.9C so I was one degree off in my original guess. Booo.

Manley CET for December finished on 4.9C

Another below average month, 0.2C below the 1971-2000 mean, and 0.35C below the 10 year rolling mean.

LOL. And sir what were some your earlier punts like. Certainly closer than you old chap and just off by 0.1C.

Mathematically I'm correct since if it's rounded up it's 5C

Edited January 1, 2008 by The PIT

[cheeky_monkey]

Optimus Prime;

That is not entirely true that a cold December often leads to a cold winter. It certainly wasn't in 2001-02, and Feb & Mar 1997 were very mild after a cold December, and the same applied in Feb/Mar 1945. Dec 1992 was also quite cold but Jan and Feb were not. Feb 1982 was also above average after the very cold Dec, and so was Feb 1977. Even after the very cold December of 1950 both the Jan & Feb 1951 were not particularly cold.

I will also point out to you that 1968-69 was also a very unusual winter, in that Feb was so cold after a mild Jan (4.5*C colder). Looking at the records it is very rare for a cold February to occur after a January that is much above average and the drop in CET from Jan/Feb 1969 is among the top five biggest drops on record. Only 1969 and 1983 are examples of where a mild January has been followed by a very cold February. Many of the other big drops in CET from Jan to Feb (4*C+) have occurred when a very severe February has followed a cold January, like 1947.

you cant quote 1945 simply because janaury 45 was very cold and snowy..and mar is a spring month..so essentially 2 out of 3 months were well below normal.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Here on the Essex coast we had:

Max Daily Ave: 7.8C

Min Nightly Ave: 3.6C

Monthly average of = 5.7c which is about 0.4c above the average.

[Snowyowl9]

Manley CET for December finished on 4.9C

Another below average month, 0.2C below the 1971-2000 mean, and 0.35C below the 10 year rolling mean.

I`m very happy with that, 2nd month I`ve got bang on this year .... that makes 5 years now since 1900 that 4.9 cet was made.

1905/1945/1973 and 1989.

[Stratos Ferric]

...This has manifested in a six month spell that has bucked the warm up trend, and is more akin in both temperature and synoptics to the 1980's. That being the case, many of us will be looking for a repeat of something akin to 1984/5 which had a 5.2C December followed by a 0.8C and 2.1C Jan / Feb or 1985/6 which had a 6.3C December followed by a 3.5C and -1.1C Jan / Feb ... rather going to show that the notion of an average December followed by mild Jan / Feb is, well, bunkam. KM - snap!

I certainly agree with the point that patterns in months simply are not there, certaily not with any robustness, however to suggest that we are on the cusp of winter months anything like as cold as the ones your citing there is an extreme flight of fantasy. I know you're heavily invested in your new zeal for cold, but I think it does tend to be clouding your better judgement.

[Nick F]

I agree SF, citing a pattern match of this winter with the mid-80s winters is rather like chalk and cheese. For a start, we still have a strong La Nina (not present mid 80s) which shows no signs of weakening yet - the all to familiar Nina forced pattern (+NAO/+AO) is all there to be seen with deep upper cold pooling to our NW and N and strong ridge near the azores and next week over Europe. The only salvation from a continued default of mild so far has been the appearance of blocking near or east of the UK - IMO forced downstream by the warm SSTAs in the Atlantic when the jet has become more convoluted and fragmented - also a reason for continued occurence of cut-off lows over Europe/Atlantic.

In the great scheme of things, a continuation of close to average months means very little, certainly not putting us on the cusp of a 'new wave' of the cold and snowmantic winters of the past. If the Jan and/or Feb CETs come in well below par, then I may raise an eyebrow ...