Is this winter going to go pear shaped?

[david16]

A 1955/6 repeat?

Weren't the patterns not too dissimilar then during the autumn to what is it now, and there was a La Nina then.

A great battleground in January and February between the Beast from the east and the mild cyclonic atlantic, with the beast from east holding firm and indeed forcing the cyclonic atlantic westwards? :lol:

Edited November 26, 2007 by david16

[ukmoose]

I think it is fair to say that for sustained winter cold the pattern is usually evident by mid-late January. December is often an irrelevance on its own, though I would suggest that a very cold December is unlikely to herald a four month siberian winter.

I would never give up on February nowadays, precisely because of the SST factor you mention, and I still think it offers the best prospects for decent cold in our modern winters.

I very rarely disagree with your observations SF knowing that they are founded on a high degree of expertise, analysis, objectivity and common sense. By my own admission, I adopt a much more lazy and error strewn approach!

I didn't mean to imply that a cold December would be the harbinger of a winter to end all winters! Merely that to my highly inaccurate eye, a cold spell or two lasting several days each is likely to indicate a pattern that has a fair chance of re-setting in later in the winter. No cold spells in December to my untrained eye suggests little chance of any sustained cold later in the winter.

I would define sustained cold as at least one week of sub zero night time temperatures and day time maxima struggling above freezing with perhaps the odd ice day thrown in. I would argue that the chances of getting this now are very slight indeed (just based on the last x winters and factual rises in winter average temperatures) and with no cold spells in either December or January, I feel February is pretty likely to turn out on the mild side as well. February, once such a treacherous month, has, I think, lost its bite.

I do not rule out snow and the odd short cold spell at all. Last February for instance, in that nightmare of a winter, produced a couple of freezing nights down to minus 6 and 7 and some pretty heavy snow for this region. It didn't last though, and that's my point really. It didn't get past the two day toppler phase that winters have become.

As I said, I am very unscientific in my approach and probably deserve the criticism I get for it!

(Younger members of this forum probably wonder what on earth I am on about ' a week long cold spell indeed! What kind of grumpy old sod is this?)

Moose

[david16]

Anything less than +10C (+6C at night) in December, January and February now receives the look/sound of bewilderment from the BBC weather forecasters.

Hope we are not looking at the rare clear night once every several days bringing a 0C frost as the only crumbs of comfort of another dismal British winter.

How can the Met Office and BBC weather team not all that long ago predict that this winter was going to be somewhat colder than last winter. Now all of a sudden they are now tentatively hinting that the mildest winter on record cannot be totally ruled out of the question, then as winter progresses soon thy will hint that it's distinct possibility, followed soon enough predict that it's almost certain with a high degree of confidence 60-40, to finally reaching the point where they'll say it's 90% dead certain with visible grins coming out of the BBC weather forecasters ears. It can't surely get any milder than last winter.

Hope we never get to such crisis point of+11C is the January average daytime maximum temperatures.

Edited November 26, 2007 by david16

[david16]

+11C to +13C (+4C to +6C at night) for days and weeks on end. Tightly packed isobars of fresh to strong west to southwest winds veering south at times accompanied by days and weeks on end of heavy or torrential rain.

Only the occasional brief day or 2's northerly, with any snow there is falling in the far north and clipping the east coast, before everything switches southwest again for another dreadful prolonged zonal spell.

And the MET office they predicted not that long ago it wasn't going to happen this winter to such the same devastating extent it did last winter.

yuck!

Edited November 26, 2007 by david16

[Snooz]

...

As I said, I am very unscientific in my approach and probably deserve the criticism I get for it!

(Younger members of this forum probably wonder what on earth I am on about ' a week long cold spell indeed! What kind of grumpy old sod is this?)

Moose

Nice post, very refreshing and I'd say in answer to the very last question...

One who has a sense of humour :lol:

[Stratos Ferric]

I very rarely disagree with your observations SF knowing that they are founded on a high degree of expertise, analysis, objectivity and common sense. By my own admission, I adopt a much more lazy and error strewn approach!

I didn't mean to imply that a cold December would be the harbinger of a winter to end all winters! Merely that to my highly inaccurate eye, a cold spell or two lasting several days each is likely to indicate a pattern that has a fair chance of re-setting in later in the winter. No cold spells in December to my untrained eye suggests little chance of any sustained cold later in the winter.

I would define sustained cold as at least one week of sub zero night time temperatures and day time maxima struggling above freezing with perhaps the odd ice day thrown in. I would argue that the chances of getting this now are very slight indeed (just based on the last x winters and factual rises in winter average temperatures) and with no cold spells in either December or January, I feel February is pretty likely to turn out on the mild side as well. February, once such a treacherous month, has, I think, lost its bite.

I do not rule out snow and the odd short cold spell at all. Last February for instance, in that nightmare of a winter, produced a couple of freezing nights down to minus 6 and 7 and some pretty heavy snow for this region. It didn't last though, and that's my point really. It didn't get past the two day toppler phase that winters have become.

As I said, I am very unscientific in my approach and probably deserve the criticism I get for it!

(Younger members of this forum probably wonder what on earth I am on about ' a week long cold spell indeed! What kind of grumpy old sod is this?)

Moose

Moose,

I think you're making a good bid for me to dive back into the detailed numbers which I may well do later this week.

Sorry - my point was a clumsy one, being that we have never in this country had winters of enduring cold, and I know that this was not what you were saying but there are others on here who occasionally give the impression that such was ever a realistic expectation. It never has been. To that end a sustained cold December, in my opinion, simply reduces the likelihood of later months being persistently cold: however, I stress, I haven't tested the data.

My other point was that on the rare occasions when we have had a long cold spell, it has not necessarily been signalled at all by December. I'm fairly sure that December 1978, for example, was generally mild until the very end of the month.

I think the one point you make that I would disagree with is re February. I think all winter months seem to have lost their bite but in recent winters mid-late Feb has often provided a shot of sustained cold. The disappointing month in recent years for me has been January. I could add December too, but I think one has to be in the 40+ club to recall times when December produced at least one worthwhile snowfall most years. It is with a wry smile that I read posts on N-W from younger members who are dismissive of any prospect for snow before Christmas as if it has never happened.

+11C to +13C (+4C to +6C at night) for days and weeks on end. Tightly packed isobars of fresh to strong west to southwest winds veering south at times accompanied by days and weeks on end of heavy or torrential rain.

Only the occasional brief day or 2's northerly, with any snow there is falling in the far north and clipping the east coast, before everything switches southwest again for another dreadful prolonged zonal spell.

And the MET office they predicted not that long ago it wasn't going to happen this winter to such the same devastating extent it did last winter.

yuck!

David, forgive me, but you're twittering. What I don't know is whether these are the ruminations of a sane mind, or the madder ramblings of someone fearing the worst, but with no supporting evidence.

I certainly haven't seen anything in the models to suggest unceasing mildness, nor am I aware of the UKMO saying that this winter will be the mildest on record. It's highly unlikely that we would have a record breaker following a near record-breaker.

[The Enforcer]

From my limited recollection, cold Decembers have generally been anticyclonic in nature, so a cold December doesn't necessarily mean a good start to winter that tails off when January and February come in above average. Best example I can give here is comparing 2005/2006 with 2006/2007 - for me the latter was better, because it gave me snow, whereas the former did not, in spite of some encouraging CET values.

Presumably more for the Austrian ski season than for winter in the UK? There are teleconnections, and teleconnections; whilst we might be onto something linking snow in the Tyrol with winter prospects 1000 miles N and W, I wouldn't be hanging too much research on it.

I see the point you are making, but here I am going to refer to my obscure analogy of comparing the Cold vs Mild battle as a football match with Cold = plucky minnow and Mild = premier league giant. If I could "manage" the cold weather, taking account of its limited resources and that a full-on assault would be beaten away by the midfield duo of A Zoreshigh and J Etstream, I'd employ an outflanking strategy of bypassing the UK early in the winter in favour of attacking central Europe, which is more vulnerable to polar incursions. The game plan would involve repeated attacks, trying to get the continent as cold as possible by mid-winter, so that should any synoptics allowing for an Easterly airflow emerge, the source would be sufficiently cold to enable the much vaunted "Battleground" scenario to develop. Certainly not foolproof and more often than not destined to fail, but every now and then...

I'm still going to hold those who say 'yes it will be a cold/severe winter'

You'll need arms like these:

[ukmoose]

Nice post, very refreshing and I'd say in answer to the very last question...

One who has a sense of humour

Well thank you, Snooz. I'm not really that grumpy...I have my lighter moments!

Moose

Moose,

I think you're making a good bid for me to dive back into the detailed numbers which I may well do later this week.

Sorry - my point was a clumsy one, being that we have never in this country had winters of enduring cold, and I know that this was not what you were saying but there are others on here who occasionally give the impression that such was ever a realistic expectation. It never has been. To that end a sustained cold December, in my opinion, simply reduces the likelihood of later months being persistently cold: however, I stress, I haven't tested the data.

My other point was that on the rare occasions when we have had a long cold spell, it has not necessarily been signalled at all by December. I'm fairly sure that December 1978, for example, was generally mild until the very end of the month.

I think the one point you make that I would disagree with is re February. I think all winter months seem to have lost their bite but in recent winters mid-late Feb has often provided a shot of sustained cold. The disappointing month in recent years for me has been January. I could add December too, but I think one has to be in the 40+ club to recall times when December produced at least one worthwhile snowfall most years. It is with a wry smile that I read posts on N-W from younger members who are dismissive of any prospect for snow before Christmas as if it has never happened.

Thanks SF, that would be good. It would be interesting to see how the figures stack up.

You're right of course, all winter months have lost their bite and all are disappointing for me.

Moose

[damianslaw]

I very rarely disagree with your observations SF knowing that they are founded on a high degree of expertise, analysis, objectivity and common sense. By my own admission, I adopt a much more lazy and error strewn approach!

I didn't mean to imply that a cold December would be the harbinger of a winter to end all winters! Merely that to my highly inaccurate eye, a cold spell or two lasting several days each is likely to indicate a pattern that has a fair chance of re-setting in later in the winter. No cold spells in December to my untrained eye suggests little chance of any sustained cold later in the winter.

I would define sustained cold as at least one week of sub zero night time temperatures and day time maxima struggling above freezing with perhaps the odd ice day thrown in. I would argue that the chances of getting this now are very slight indeed (just based on the last x winters and factual rises in winter average temperatures) and with no cold spells in either December or January, I feel February is pretty likely to turn out on the mild side as well. February, once such a treacherous month, has, I think, lost its bite.

I do not rule out snow and the odd short cold spell at all. Last February for instance, in that nightmare of a winter, produced a couple of freezing nights down to minus 6 and 7 and some pretty heavy snow for this region. It didn't last though, and that's my point really. It didn't get past the two day toppler phase that winters have become.

As I said, I am very unscientific in my approach and probably deserve the criticism I get for it!

Oh dear a very pessimistic outlook, I guess last winter has left a disturbing scar on you.

It would be very unusual if we did record a milder winter than last year. I am taking comfort in the fact that we have recorded 2 preety near average seasons taking this into consideration and the fact that winter 05/06 was also near average I don't think we are quite at a point where we can all confidently say that every season will bring exceptionally mild conditions.

(Younger members of this forum probably wonder what on earth I am on about ' a week long cold spell indeed! What kind of grumpy old sod is this?)

Moose

I very rarely disagree with your observations SF knowing that they are founded on a high degree of expertise, analysis, objectivity and common sense. By my own admission, I adopt a much more lazy and error strewn approach!

I didn't mean to imply that a cold December would be the harbinger of a winter to end all winters! Merely that to my highly inaccurate eye, a cold spell or two lasting several days each is likely to indicate a pattern that has a fair chance of re-setting in later in the winter. No cold spells in December to my untrained eye suggests little chance of any sustained cold later in the winter.

I would define sustained cold as at least one week of sub zero night time temperatures and day time maxima struggling above freezing with perhaps the odd ice day thrown in. I would argue that the chances of getting this now are very slight indeed (just based on the last x winters and factual rises in winter average temperatures) and with no cold spells in either December or January, I feel February is pretty likely to turn out on the mild side as well. February, once such a treacherous month, has, I think, lost its bite.

I do not rule out snow and the odd short cold spell at all. Last February for instance, in that nightmare of a winter, produced a couple of freezing nights down to minus 6 and 7 and some pretty heavy snow for this region. It didn't last though, and that's my point really. It didn't get past the two day toppler phase that winters have become.

As I said, I am very unscientific in my approach and probably deserve the criticism I get for it!

(Younger members of this forum probably wonder what on earth I am on about ' a week long cold spell indeed! What kind of grumpy old sod is this?)

Moose

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Thanks SF, that would be good. It would be interesting to see how the figures stack up.

You're right of course, all winter months have lost their bite and all are disappointing for me.

Moose

You're on re the numbers.

RE a little optimism might I suggest the model thread. I imagine in a hundred years' time when the UK is a sub-saharan desert, the winter months will still find the model discussion room full of people discussing, if not exactly the models, at least what the synoptics might evolve to and how we're going to end up knee deep in snow once the cold pooling on Venus takes hold. I swear that if you stay there for more than five minutes you start to get dragged along into believing that every winter really is bitterly cold. They've even got various N-W forecasters joining in now.

[rossco89]

I remember when i was a kid we used to get loads of snow nearly every year and it was at least 1ft deep, now were lucky if we get any. Last year my area only had 3 nights with frost and no snow at all. Winters are becoming very dull and boring indeed. I think it would be nice this year to have a very busy winter with loads of snow that lasts for at least a week. Doubt it`ll happen though.

[summer blizzard]

While its possible that February may redeem this winter, it appears that we are seeing a typical La Nina CET outcome thus far, with a slightly below average December been followed by a high CET value in January and if my forecast is correct, also February.

[North-Easterly Blast]

While its possible that February may redeem this winter, it appears that we are seeing a typical La Nina CET outcome thus far, with a slightly below average December been followed by a high CET value in January and if my forecast is correct, also February.

Looking back at the archives, it appears that strong La Nina winters favour mild winters overall (although not as exceptionally so as 1988-89) with little difference in the CETs from Dec/Jan/Feb, like 1998-99, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1999-2000, 1949-50 etc). There is not a great deal of evidence to suggest that either side of the winter favours cold spells more than any other. Winter 1949-50 saw a very cold second half to Jan, and Winter 1973-74 was virtually mild (but not exceptionally so) throughout with few cold spells at all, and Winter 1975-76 saw cold periods in late Jan / early Feb and March colder than January. Winter 1998-99 had all three winter months similar, and a cold spell in the second week of Feb.

There is actually evidence to suggest that Weak to Moderate La Nina winters favour spells of northern blocking and cold spells in the UK (1955, 1956, 1985, 1986, 1995-96).

[Stockaree]

One day in the future, the headlines will be 'Britain has its coldest winter in 50 years' :lol: and not other parts of the world. Maybe 8P or maybe not.

[Snowmad79]

One day in the future, the headlines will be 'Britain has its coldest winter in 50 years' :lol: and not other parts of the world. Maybe 8P or maybe not.

Yes John, may just happen within the next 10 yrs if the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Shuts down , Not saying it will mind but you never know with the continual melting of Ice Sheets and Glaciers

[Storm Animal]

Well after doing a bit of research this is supposed to be a "Hale Winter", where a bad winter is experienced every 22/23 years, and this is the 23rd year, it sounds ridiculous, which is why I think its great!! .......so yes, things are going to go pear-shaped!! hehe

EDIT: I'm having second thoughts already, thinks its going to be distinctively average!!

Edited February 3, 2008 by Storm Animal

[blitzen]

I wonder why it is though that you can almost stick a drawing pin in the middle of Britain on a map and it appears to be that everywhere within the northern hemisphere can and does at times suffer from all of the extremes, including cold except us. Canada, North America, Russia, China, Central/Western Europe, even Greece and Turkey at times can all suffer from extreme cold/snowy conditions. To be fair, Britain does suffer the extremes at times of heat (south east) rain (flooding) wind (tornadoes) etc

practically every other weather phenomenon other than cold/snow. I suppose it is to do with the fact that we are an Island but when you come to think of it, so is every other landmass! Probably utter tosh - but still confusing to me and very frustrating!

[Stratos Ferric]

One day in the future, the headlines will be 'Britain has its coldest winter in 50 years' :lol: and not other parts of the world. Maybe 8P or maybe not.

It will happen, staistically it MUST. However, I suspect that you're confusing a RELATIVE assessment with an absoute one. In a little over a decade's time our coldest winter in fifty years wouldn't really be much to write home about in ABSOLUTE terms. The longer we wait, with a backdrop of warming, the less absolutely wintry our coldest in fifty years will be.

[BARRY]

I wonder why it is though that you can almost stick a drawing pin in the middle of Britain on a map and it appears to be that everywhere within the northern hemisphere can and does at times suffer from all of the extremes, including cold except us. Canada, North America, Russia, China, Central/Western Europe, even Greece and Turkey at times can all suffer from extreme cold/snowy conditions. To be fair, Britain does suffer the extremes at times of heat (south east) rain (flooding) wind (tornadoes) etc

practically every other weather phenomenon other than cold/snow. I suppose it is to do with the fact that we are an Island but when you come to think of it, so is every other landmass! Probably utter tosh - but still confusing to me and very frustrating!

i think it's called the gulf stream

[blitzen]

i think it's called the gulf stream

I know DB, but this is what makes it all the more confusing! ie: the Gulf Stream has always been there but in the past we still managed to suffer the odd severe cold/snowy spell. Look at our latitude, you would think that this at least would put us in the firing line occasionally, no? I mean it is virtually every other country except ours,

[PersianPaladin]

Nick I haven't even begun yet!

I think we're going to see some very potent spells of penetrating cold, with widespread and heavy snowfalls pretty much throughout the UK at times.

Oh how wrong u were.

[BARRY]

I know DB, but this is what makes it all the more confusing! ie: the Gulf Stream has always been there but in the past we still managed to suffer the odd severe cold/snowy spell. Look at our latitude, you would think that this at least would put us in the firing line occasionally, no? I mean it is virtually every other country except ours,

but it might be something to do with the speed and temp of the stream, IE the little ice age in the middle ages, may have had somthing to do with the stream slowing down, so there DB

[Bobby]

Oh how wrong u were.

I also remember the prediction of the "mother of all cold spells" during January...

Edited February 3, 2008 by Magpie

[BARRY]

I suppose the simple fact is that we don't know. Met Office seem to point to a mild winter though and considering our warming climate and decreasing amounts of cold winters then it looks even more likely. Or we could have another 1947. Let's dream.

I still think that we'll have another really cold winter, like in the 80's or even 63. Maybe even 47, have to get lucky though.

still waiting

[Bobby]

I still think that we'll have another really cold winter, like in the 80's or even 63. Maybe even 47, have to get lucky though.

I mean there that we could have one one day. Didn't mean it for this winter.

Edited February 3, 2008 by Magpie