Virtual Storm Chase 3

[Paul Sherman]

Dont forget the live Streaming links below for what could be the last Chase for a few weeks in the TX/OK Chaseable Areas, I am sure all the regulars will be out and about from about 20z

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

Paul S

[NL]

Seems like i got back from Northumberland just in time to see a moderate risk.

Havent had time to look at charts so no target for me. Threat of some embedded

tornadoes, messy affair, hope i can keep my eyes open to follow tonight..!!

[Paul Sherman]

New MD Issued - TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1246 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091746Z - 091845Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL AND N

TX.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO

SPREAD NWD...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDED ENEWD FROM THE MAF AREA TO THE

ERN PART OF THE DAL/FTW METROPLEX INTO SERN OK AND SRN AR. VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ALONG AND S OF WRN

EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND INCREASING

CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGESTS NEW

TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BETWEEN 18-20Z AS SURFACE BASED

INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG

DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC

SUPERCELLS.

[kold weather]

Yep Paul those live streams are bound to catch a few tornadoes in the next 3 days.

Dallas now got dew points of 64F and now that low cloud is moving out of the way to the north with the warm front pushing on through the area (temps rising pretty sharply as the warm front moved on to the north according to obs further south) I'd imagine surface temps will repsond upwards soon...I imagine there will be some pretty impressive cape present in the next couple of hours everyhwere to the south of the warm front...I just hope that the cells don't fire up as soon as the cloud cover lifts and that the surface can warm for a couple of hours to maximise instablity.

Paul-If it does go queit then that may be a good thing in terms of timing for yyou guys, should pump back up for early May?

Edited April 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Paul Sherman]

Darren

I would rather have a 2 week Death Ridge now and not the 1st 2 weeks of May thats for sure, these episodes have a habit of re-setting themselves, last year was 2 weeks on then 2 weeks off

Seeing as I am Virtual Chasing I have had me lunch in Abilene and now just sitting at a Wifi Spot before making a decision, originally liked Brownwood but may just hang out here on the I20 For now.

Paul S

[kold weather]

Well hopefully its a little more spread out then this time Paul so everyone gets something good.

I'd also hang around in Abilene for a little while as its bang in the middle of the latest tornado watch, though i think eventually I would head eastwards in the direction of Dallas, would quite fancy seeing a powerful cell going through there.

Anyway now a cumulus field developing in a clearence behind this mornings cells, would quite fancy a few cells kicking off there in the next 2hrs thats where to watch IMO so we would be nicely placed Paul.

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

And here is the Text PDS Tornado Watch Box

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 178

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL

800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS

TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED

WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Keep Watching those Live Streams from SevereStudios Tonight, and set your Weather Radio to San Angelo

So far only 2 Live Streams, Verne and Tony Laubauch in Sweetwater (Tx) and Die hard David Drummond heading South East from Lubbock towards the Abilene Area.

Paul S

[kold weather]

Yep David is still in the messy elevated stuff, lots of low cloud though with those cells as well definatly weren't worth chasing that.

Couple of cells now kicking off close to the I20 highway just on the southern side, gone up in the last 10-15 mins so looks like its all starting to kick off now, will be worth watching these cells to see how rapidly develop, I'd imagine given the high helicity present and also the high levels of CAPE these cells will beocme severe within the next 30-45 mins.

Edited April 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Yes Kold, watching those cells near the I-20 between Big Springs and Abilene too, one cell heading for may target area other further west along I-20 - which one?:

Storms, if they keep going, will move into an area of very favourable LL wind shear and helicity, looking at the hourly mesoscale data, for possible tornado development:

Just need the moisture to improve a bit more from the south.

[Rob]

american weather is so interesting, some much happens. Wish we had weather like they do

[Cookie]

american weather is so interesting, some much happens. Wish we had weather like they do

I like to watch it from a safe distance over the Atlantic

[Paul Sherman]

Just heard a TAF Report of 81f Temp and 70f Dewpoint at Brownwood :o

Paul S

[Cookie]

Just heard a TAF Report of 81f Temp and 70f Dewpoint at Brownwood :o

Paul S

blimey :o

[kold weather]

Oh well those dew points are impressive if thats true, if those temps keep rising thats going to give some explosive convection later on I'd have thought. Anyway yeah convection kicking off nicely with some nice cells forming at the moment and developing fairly rapidly as well, think they will go tornadic in the next 1hr or so IMO.

In virtual world I'd have been heading westward as soon as the radar hinted of cells going up, then after this cell has gone through think I'd go back west along the I20 and see what else comes up.

Verne Carlson got some nice images of the cells at the moment whereas David is still in the horrible mess!

[Roger J Smith]

I believe there would be two good outcomes today, if one team was chasing near Abilene and another waiting around Clovis NM, both would probably intercept some severe storms.

Set-up at present, low developing north central NM, dynamic cold front from there southwest, showing expected weak but likely explosive after 21z development. Tropical air has oozed north to a point just north of Midland TX with occlusion west of Lubbock into low centre. Southwest of this feature hot, dry air flowing in from SW to reach a weak and slowly developing cold front dangling SSW to near Dryden TX. In the main wam sector, conditions increasingly favourable to support tornadic development along q.s. front seen on radar running northeast towards Mineral Wells. Tornadic storms likely to form along this front as well as parts of developing cold front. Could consider staying south of Big Spring around Sterling City to San Angelo as eventually there may be strong convection here.

East of the occlusion trapped low-level cloud and cool outflow should hold rather constant as it is shoved slowly northeast, but with approach of cold front later, this occlusion turns into dry line when inversion breaks to east. This should initiate two lines of convection, either may produce severe storms, the occlusion near Lubbock towards Childress later, and north through eastern TX panhandle. Severe storms on cold front parallel to TX-NM border by 01z could rapidly become tornadic. The main problem would be timing, sunset in this area about 02z so possibly only 1-2 hours of activity during daylight.

The advantage of waiting in the Clovis area would be several hours of warm sunshine and much better visibility to west, but with the disadvantage that outcome is not certain; the advantage of chasing near I-20 is higher certainty but as you're discussing, which part of that zone?

Whatever develops likely to stay at severe levels well into the overnight with an early start to chasing Thursday, probably north to northeast of OKC.

[kold weather]

Here's another webcam to watch did have some rotation just now:

http://streamwebtown.com/tvnstream1

Looks like those cells are getting good rotation now, wlel on the way to becoming supercells if they aren't already. Tornado on the western most cell, going to come close to Abilene so given all the factors in place wouldn't be that surprising to see tornados soon.

EDIT- first tornado been reported:

AT 315 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES

SOUTH OF MERKEL...OR 18 MILES WEST OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

31 MPH.

Edited April 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Yep, here was the tornado warning about 15 mins ago:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

315 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 311 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES WEST OF

MERKEL...OR ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 31

MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

MERKEL BY 315 PM CDT...

STITH AND NOODLE BY 330 PM CDT...

TRUBY AND HODGES BY 340 PM CDT...

HAWLEY BY 345 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO

BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE

BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. IF IN

MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL

SHELTER.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING

FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3268 10014 3270 9967 3235 10003 3239 10016

TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 216DEG 27KT 3248 10005

Another one for the storm further west towards Sweetwater:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

323 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN NOLAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

SOUTHEASTERN FISHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 319 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 4 MILES EAST OF

ROSCOE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

SWEETWATER AND GANNON BY 330 PM CDT...

LAKE SWEETWATER BY 335 PM CDT...

BUSBY BY 345 PM CDT...

LONGWORTH BY 355 PM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO

BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE

BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. IF IN

MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL

SHELTER.

LAT...LON 3237 10026 3243 10060 3274 10043 3268 10015

3266 10015 3265 10015

TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 232DEG 19KT 3246 10045

$$

Think right now I'd be heading NW up the Hwy 277 towards Anson to follow this storm.

[kold weather]

Looks like this system is a multiple developer:

AT 324 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STITH...OR 13 MILES WEST OF ABILENE...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 33 MPH.

[Nick F]

Problem with these storms just north of the I-20, is that they are on or crossing the slow moving warm front and look like crapping-out once getting on the 'cold' and dry side to the north. Not particularly great structure either looking at the live streaming from Dave Drummond, low grey cloud like when we chased the Cap Rock Escarpment last May.

May have to look at further cells developing to the SW in the warm sector ahead of the dryline for more tornado potential. Still worth following these storms for a while before stopping chase, then perhaps heading south or SW.

[kold weather]

Yeah there is a cell Nick to the Sw that isn't looking bad and I'd imagine it will continue to develop as it heads NE, may be an idea of getting back onto the I20 and heading westwards a touch to try and intercept that cell.

[Nick F]

Well, having said the structure looks crap, Verne Carlson's live streaming shows a very nice looking supercell from his drivers window with disticnt 'beavers tail' inflow. Not sure which cell he's on, but he's west of Abilene I think.

[kold weather]

I think David is looking at it from the northern side which may explain why there is a lot of messy low cloud whilst Verne came up from another direction which obviously has less in the way of cloud cover, as you say I can see a nice looking beavers tail (thats where the inflow would be coming in right?)

[Nick F]

Yep, that's right Kold.

Although the moisture may not be so rich to the north where the storms are moving - the merged cells NE of Abilene, which is showing signs of a hook on the Sern end, are moving into an area with much stronger SR helicity looking at hourly mesoanalysis:

... just worried that the drier sfc air to the north will mean the storms will become elevated.

[pottyprof]

If it does elevate the storms Nick.. always the pretty lightning photos to go for if they can keep going...

[Roger J Smith]

My virtual chase near Clovis NM is now on the road southeast 30 miles to Sudan TX then checking road grid for routes south towards Morton TX, looking at current set-up, the occlusion about to transform to dry-line feature, cold front now activating to west of Clovis, expecting some strong thunderstorms to develop in north-south line parallel to TX-NM border in about 2 hours. Would want to be near south end of this line for best intercept potential. Expecting this around 2330z to 01z.