Virtual Storm Chase 3

[kold weather]

Yeah its a risk Nick though I think it would be worth chasing it still esp given its already given a couple of tornadoes as it heads into the higher area of helicity rotation should hopefully continue and maybe even become better defined, though of course if it does become elevated the tornado chances will decrease alot.

Cell to the SW seems to be weakening somewhat right now though so not sure whether that one would be worth chasing unless you think it will strengthen as it moves into the higher helicity.

It was great watching a 2hr loop of the cell developing, its the first time I've really seen the right movement that I hear so much about, the flow was NE yet the cell was moving nearly due east and then just ate the nearby cell up!

Edited April 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Paul Sherman]

Have been watching that Cell merger NE of Abilene myself Nick, Cell mergers usually mean Tornadoes Form quite quickly, the Northern most Supercell scooped that Southern Storm Up.

Me and Ian Cameron are drinking Wife Beaters tonight Virtual Chasing while the Girls are Yakking away :o

[kold weather]

Paul a quick question, would a merger storm become messy in terms of structula organisation or would it keep seperate cores?

[Paul Sherman]

If you were to the east you would see the Core of the Northern Storm then a Clear slot and then the Southern Cells FFD, The merger from a stronger Storm to the North is pretty painless with clear air around you and the whole Structure usually becomes one inside half and hour.

Paul S

[kold weather]

Ok thanks Paul doesn't sound bad hope you and Ian are having a good time chasing this sett-up in the virtual world!

Anyway the cell we've all been tracking looks real good now, developing quite an impressive hook on that southern side with the radars really showing the feature now. I think this is going to be a tornado producer again very soon indeed if not already!

Cloud tops now a little above 45k...

David Drummond now finally in a better place to get good images, looks like he is on the southern side of a cell ,not sure what one though.

Edited April 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Nick F]

That large cell that merged NE of Abilene earlier and is now near Albany - looks like it is right moving along the warm front now compared to the general NEward storm motions - so perhaps better prospects of it keeping the warm moist sfc inflow as it rides the lift of the frontal boundary - and may well produce the goods ... certainly the only cell worth follwing atm.

here we go ... TVS and nice hook now near Breckenridge:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

447 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

STEPHENS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 447 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

DEVELOPING TORNADO 17 MILES WEST OF BRECKENRIDGE..MOVING EAST AT 46

MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

BRECKENRIDGE BY 505 PM CDT...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN

INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY

WITH THIS STORM. ALSO...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING

ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys,

There have been 2 Tornado Reports Today* | Yesterday | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) 	Strength 	Location 	County 	State 	Lat 	Lon 	Comments
2035 	UNK 	2 NE TYE 	TAYLOR 	TX 	32.47 	-99.85 	BELOW
REPORT OF A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF TYE...ABOUT 3/4 MI NORTH OF I-20. (SJT)
2030 	UNK 	4 NW TYE 	TAYLOR 	TX 	32.49 	-99.92 	BELOW
REPORT OF A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON I-20 WEST OF TYE (SJT)

http://www.weathermatrix.net/stormmatrix/tornado/

[Paul Sherman]

Textbook looking Radar Signature that Nick, Nice Notch, with the Inflow and Outflow seperation clearly shown on that Scan.

Paul S

[Nick F]

Quite a beast of a supercell now near Breckenridge, be suprised if this doesn't produce a tornado now:

I'd be on it right now if we'd arrived three weeks early :o

[kold weather]

Yep very impressive looking indeed, certainly is the only cell worth chasing no doubt all the storm chasers are on the same cell right now, sticks out like a sore thumb.

By the way just heard from someone that there is a report of twin tornadoes on the ground now from the supercell but I don't know how true that is...but I wouldn't be surprised given the hook present, radar velocity showed the hook so well in the last 45 mins with a couplet now present on the velocity.

edit---apperently according to someone on easternuswx its a 1/2 mile wedge with a rope tornado nearby!

Edited April 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Looks like a tornado touchdown just SW of Breckenridge ... interesting to the see the pics Kold if it is a wedge ... not suprised given the hook reflectivity and helicity values the storm is moving into, looks a biggy.

Interesting MD issued recently too:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0512 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 178...

VALID 092212Z - 092315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 178 CONTINUES.

THROUGH 23Z...THE GREATEST SUPERCELL AND INHERENT HAIL AND TORNADO

THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS STEPHENS AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES TX.

ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2

HOURS ALONG DRYLINE FROM NEAR MAF SWD TO 6R6.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO LIFT NWD

THROUGH N-CNTRL TX WITH THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING NEAR

AND NW OF THE MWL AREA. AS OF 2145Z...THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING OVER SHACKELFORD COUNTY WHERE A RECENT

STORM MERGER HAS OCCURRED...RESULTING IN AN INTENSE SUPERCELL. THIS

STORM IS SITUATED ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH A MOTION OF 255/35 KT.

EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION TAKES THIS STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF

STEPHENS AND PALO PINTO COUNTIES...NEAR OR N OF MWL BETWEEN

2300-2330Z.

RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE

FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF THIS STORM WITH THE INFLUX OF A MOIST BOUNDARY

LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500

J/KG. MOREOVER...BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAIN QUITE STRONG

AND SUPPORT OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO

VERY LARGE HAIL...THIS STORM WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED

TORNADOES.

FARTHER TO THE SW...ADDITIONAL STORM OVER MITCHELL AND STERLING

COUNTIES HAS RECENTLY SPLIT AND APPEARS STILL TO BE TRYING TO

ORGANIZE. THIS STORM TOO IS SITUATED ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC

ZONE...BUT MORE NLY WIND COMPONENT AT SWEETWATER TX SUGGESTS THAT

BOUNDARY MAY SAG SWD...TEMPORARILY UNDERCUTTING ONGOING TSTM

DEVELOPMENT.

FINALLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS

DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE FROM S OF MAF TO 6R6 WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER

HAS BECOME HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED. TSTMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT

1 TO 2 HOURS WITH AN INITIAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS. ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN PERSIST EWD/NEWD INTO THE

RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF

ISOLATED TORNADOES.

[kold weather]

Looks like its just missed Beckenridge to the south which is good news as you say Nick it does seem to be a biggie, I heard that radar showed windspeed estimates of 190kts and even if though that may be a little on the high side it does show this is a strong tornado...still on the ground according to reports and still just as big.

[Nick F]

:o

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR STEPHENS COUNTY AND THE CITY OF

BRECKENRIDGE...

AT 520 PM CDT...A LARGE...VIOLENT TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND JUST

SOUTH OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 31 MPH.

PEOPLE IN AND JUST SOUTH OF BRECKENRIDGE SHOULD BE IN SHELTER

IMMEDIATELY! THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

529 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

EASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 529 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO

6 MILES EAST OF BRECKENRIDGE..MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

POSSUM KINGDOM STATE PARK BY 555 PM CDT...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN

INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A REINFORCED BUILDING. AS

A LAST RESORT...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU

ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO...TAKE COVER

IMMEDIATELY.

[Cookie]

:o

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR STEPHENS COUNTY AND THE CITY OF

BRECKENRIDGE...

AT 520 PM CDT...A LARGE...VIOLENT TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND JUST

SOUTH OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 31 MPH.

PEOPLE IN AND JUST SOUTH OF BRECKENRIDGE SHOULD BE IN SHELTER

IMMEDIATELY! THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION

gee wizz thats bit worrying :o

[kold weather]

Scrap that does look like the southern side of the town has been hit by the tornado, damage is being reported from what I've heard just hope those 190kts velocities as it came through are incorrect!

Still heading ENE, appears to be another area of rotation developing as well....

[Paul Sherman]

The radar sigs for this Supercell are incredible, looks to be trying to Tornado again, current ENE Track takes it close to Denton and NW Dallas near I35, And if it keeps it together it could be on the ground for quite a while, Have been through Brekenridge before and one good thing is it is relatively small in comparison to some towns around there.

Paul S

[Nick F]

Looks like it will track NW of DFW Metro area, could be a long track cyclic supercell which occludes only to form a new meso an perhaps drop more tornadoes in its path.

Just hope it spares Cow Camp Steak House in Decatur, otherwise Paul, Ian and I won't be happy bunnies :o

[kold weather]

Well this is turning out be a very good first time to actually watch a supercell event in a virtual way.

Anyway looks like another meso has formed near Caddo would watch for another tornado to form there soon as well.

Good job this cell wasn't 30 miles further south otherwise DFW would be in serious trouble-Denton could be in the path though will have to wait and see.

Edited April 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Cookie]

http://www.beloblog.com/wfaaweather/2008/0...ornado_war.html

New Tornado Warning for Eastern Stephens and Western Palo Pinto Counties

5:30 PM Wed, Apr 09, 2008 | Permalink

Meghan Danahey

E-mail

A large and violent tornado is on the ground just west of Caddo. A new tornado warning has been issued for Eastern Stephens and Western Palo Pinto Counties until 6:15. Reports indicate that the south side of Breckenridge has been hit. Damage reports are just starting to come in. Storm spotters say this tornado may be rain-wrapped and very hard to see. It is moving east at 34 mph and this storm will be near the Possum Kingdom State Park by 5:55pm. This is a life-threatening situation.

[Nick F]

Some pretty impressive SR helicity values from the hourly mesoanalysis over north central/NW TX, not surprising a large damaging tornado has developed ...

... just hope the supercell doesn't take a more easterly trajectory towards DFW ... cos it don't look like dissapating anytime soon.

[Cookie]

thanks for the great updates guys, wouldn't be the same with out you're input :o

[kold weather]

Just moved a little more to the east, I'm quite worried for Denton myself, a little to the north of Dfw and got a greater chance of being hit by this tornado if it carries on. Certainly is a biggie though at 1/2 mile they tend to be the ones that can go on for hours and as you say Nick they are pretty mental Helicity values!

Would have to track nearly due east now to hit DFW head-on.

Edited April 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Looks like Reed Timmer was close to where the tornado formed near Breckenbridge, those who don't no him - he loves to get right in close to nados - dangerously so - just type his name into YouTube and watch his videos and you'll see what I mean! Good to see if he puts a video out of the tornado.

Good livestreaming on this site: http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/livevide...22&live=yes

... they've got a chopper up in the air looking out for a wall cloud in the storm in Palo Pinto County - reckoning a tornado will form anytime soon!

Report of tornado touchdown in Abilene earlier aswell as Breckenridge.

[kold weather]

Yeah this system looks completly ready to another tornado to develop...wow what a baptism of fire this being my first proper late night watch of these systems, madness!

Is that another hook developing to the east of the main stronger one that is currently outting down that tornado?

Edited April 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Roger J Smith]

Meanwhile, the "plan B" chase is waiting about 10 miles south of Morton TX with a good view to west, skies here have cleared with lower cloud eroding slowly to northeast, and towering cumulus with patches of ACC visible to southwest. Current analysis suggests wave formation about 30-50 miles to my west, rapid pressure falls and a second area of helicity shown on the excellent map in a previous post, all creating some optimism that rapid thunderstorm development is imminent in this zone. With two hours of daylight left, this will have to go fairly quickly. I expect there will be some TRW+ activity in this area by 02z and then into the Lubbock-Amarillo region after dark. These are the storms that are likely to become the main players tomorrow in central OK.

Bear in mind that much stronger winds above 700 mbs are about to plough into this complex so a rather explosive situation awaits northwest Texas tonight and western Oklahoma early tomorrow. These storms, once developed, could remain severe all night.

I think the storm that passed Breckenridge may hold together until about 02z then that complex will probably weaken and it is quite possible that another tornadic storm could develop further west (north of San Angelo) before dark, but I doubt that anyone chasing this first storm would have the time or energy to go back for that, especially as all eyes turn north for tomorrow and chasers will be considering where to go before calling it a day.

Anyway, I shall continue to watch (virtually) here and will update whether it's a hit or a miss.