Virtual Storm Chase 3

[kold weather]

looks like thingss are starting to destablise to the north and east of Dallas as well now with some cells going up.

By the way I heard on that WFAA that there is a tornado on the ground, the radar veolicities still show its a strong tornado, looks like this one has been a long tracker and still looks like a possible threat to Denton IMO.

Also radar veolicity showing rotation in a cell over OK as well now...

Edited April 9, 2008 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Meanwhile, the "plan B" chase is waiting about 10 miles south of Morton TX with a good view to west, skies here have cleared with lower cloud eroding slowly to northeast, and towering cumulus with patches of ACC visible to southwest. Current analysis suggests wave formation about 30-50 miles to my west, rapid pressure falls and a second area of helicity shown on the excellent map in a previous post, all creating some optimism that rapid thunderstorm development is imminent in this zone. With two hours of daylight left, this will have to go fairly quickly. I expect there will be some TRW+ activity in this area by 02z and then into the Lubbock-Amarillo region after dark. These are the storms that are likely to become the main players tomorrow in central OK.

SPC have issued a MD for your chase area Roger, bring some much needed rain there too:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0606.html

Storm we've been following from Breckenridge seems to be cycling atm ... it looks to have occluded for now north of Mineral Springs and waiting to reform a meso perhaps ... please spare Cow Camp, Decatur :o

[Paul Sherman]

SPC have issued a MD for your chase area Roger, bring some much needed rain there too:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0606.html

Storm we've been following from Breckenridge seems to be cycling atm ... it looks to have occluded for now north of Mineral Springs and waiting to reform a meso perhaps ... please spare Cow Camp, Decatur :o

that was our sentamence exactly we gave it a little prayer as well long live the cow camp!!

Paul and Ian

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Good livestreaming on this site: http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/livevide...22&live=yes

Just a black screen and shows read on this? After the introduction 10 second advert.

[Roger J Smith]

On radar it looks a bit weaker now and the cell further west (east of Big Spring) looks stronger than before, could go tornadic soon. A chaser with any energy left might want to head west on a hunch that this one could drop a tornado soon.

In my virtual position I am driving slowly south because radar is looking like I could be 10-15 miles too far north to witness anything developing. Could be heading as far south as Seminole before darkness, but probably stopping closer to Plains TX, in fact, just had a virtual need for a cold one. Whoops, missed it, gotta go back. Oh no there's a Texas ranger.

If you're just joining the thread, don't forget, it is almost sunset now in the DFW area, about an hour and a half of daylight left further west where I am (not) located.

Edited April 9, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[kold weather]

Cell near Big Springs seems to have strengthened quite a lot in the last hour and looks like its heading into the same area as our present supercell went into, so I think its got a very good chance of also becoming a pwoerful tornado producing supercell. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see tornado reports soon from that cell...as well as the one in OK.

Also the supercell near mineral Wells appears to be developing a second meso according to the veolicity on the radar to the east of the present one.

[Nick F]

Is that you Ian typing in Paul's name :o

That storm area just SW of Snyder does look interesting and may develop a hook ... while the Breckenridge tornado producer storm seems to have crapped-out now.

Anyway ... think I'm going to call it a night.

[kold weather]

One last post from me tonight, looks like the hook is beocming a little better defined again and the system is now starting to lift more to the NE compared to the ENE earlier which moves the main risk towards Deactur but it may yet end up skirting just to the south I'm not sure just yet.

Sure when i get up tomorrow morning there will still be some supercell activity about that I can get right onto!

Also tornado over OK now latest warnings state its heading towards Kent...USA not the Uk hehe!

Edited April 10, 2008 by kold weather

[Hilton]

Fun day! We got to Breckenridge at about 4.30 and sat just south of the town with a good view to the west and listened to the warnings. Had to move a bit south as it came a bit closer than expected. Had a good view of the tornado as it was approaching the town, though it was pretty much totally covered in rain (could really see that rotating though). Tried to get back into town but the road was blocked by an overturned lorry. Then followed the storm all the way back to Gainsville, could see odd bits of rotation at times but it had lost a lot of the structure by then.

I'll post a couple of pictures in the morning (need sleep now ready for a possible early start!).

[Roger J Smith]

Well, this will be a very interesting day, I think. Update from my earlier posts where I was watching hopefully around the TX-NM border.

The dryline pushed gradually into the mess over the TX panhandle, but convection was only strong through that section after 02z and east of Lubbock as elevated thunderstorms, probably quite intense but not exactly severe. That complex has now moved into southwest OK. The real action after 03z was along the cold front south of Midland, and this developed at least a weak tornado in the San Angelo region around 06z, damage reports are coming in now. This strong cluster of storms is heading northeast towards Wichita Falls. There is still some risk to the DFW metroplex as this line passes close around 09z.

Forecast for severe storms is not very straight-forward now. The best upper dynamics reach central OK after 12z, but the surface situation there may be a large complex of moderate TRW with the surface winds still from a relatively cool ESE direction. The best surface conditions for severe weather may get pushed around the base of the frontal zone into Arkansas and up into Missouri. However, if there is enough clearing and linear development in western OK before about 15z then I could see how tornadic supercells might fire up rapidly near OKC, then extend northeast towards Wichita.

I think I would take that chance, and take the virtual drive to OKC (arriving soon), check into a campground and grab a few hours of sleep in the van, then assess the chances at about 15z. Might not get much sleep with the chances of loud thunder being fairly high.

Looking like the Friday severe weather risk would be highest in IL and IN then western OH. I don't think too many storm chasers go that far east, although the tornadoes don't make that distinction. From what I remember of the epic 1974 outbreak (3-4 April) this looks rather similar although probably not quite as intense.

[Nick F]

Quite a potent squall line along the waving cold/warm front stretching through west central TX in the early hours there ... tornado warned storm near Santa Ana headed towards Brownwood currently:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

129 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EAST CENTRAL COLEMAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

BROWN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 128 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES

NORTHEAST OF TRICKHAM...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANTA

ANNA...MOVING VERY RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AT 68 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

US-67 NEAR THE COLEMAN-BROWN COUNTY LINE BY 130 AM CDT...

BANGS...LAKE BROWNWOOD AND THRIFTY BY 135 AM CDT...

EARLY AND BROWNWOOD BY 140 AM CDT...

OWENS BY 145 AM CDT...

MD for west central TX:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0136 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL TX...SCNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 182...184...

VALID 100636Z - 100730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 182...184...CONTINUES.

LARGE SCALE FORCING IS RESULTING IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL RESPONSE

ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN JUST SOUTH OF ABI

OVER COLEMAN COUNTY. CONTINUED DEEPENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE

EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOW TRACKS NEWD INTO SCNTRL OK...ALONG

EXISTING QUASI-STATIONARY PORTION OF WARM FRONT. AN EXPANSIVE AND

INTENSE SQUALL LINE...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...IS

PROGRESSING EWD AT ROUGHLY 45-50KT ACROSS TX AND THIS WILL QUICKLY

SURGE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW184. DAMAGING WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR

POSSIBLE WITH THIS FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE...THOUGH ISOLATED

TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY

ACTUALLY SHIFT INTO EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL OK/NCNTRL TX NEAR THE RED

RIVER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RETREATING WARM FRONT.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2008

[NL]

Squall line now heading east at 50mph, tornado warning issued for Somervell C/TexasTornadoWarning -

10/0815Z

WFUS54 KFWD 100800

TORFWD

TXC425-100815-

/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0022.080410T0800Z-080410T0815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

300 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOMERVELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 AM CDT

* AT 300 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR GLEN ROSE..MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

RURAL NORTHEASTERN SOMERVELL COUNTY AT 310 AM CDT

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN

INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES FOR A STORM SHELTER OR PERMANENT BUILDING. IF

NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH AND COVER

YOUR HEAD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING

FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3223 9787 3232 9779 3232 9761 3226 9761

TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 250DEG 44KT 3225 9775

[NL]

Live coverage here for Dallas Fort Worth area

http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/livevide...e=yes&shu=1

[kold weather]

Looks like we've had just had some extreme stright winds hit about an hour ago, collasped buildings and cars on roofs is what I've heard...should be also saids given the strength of the jet streak we are looking at straight wind gusts probably upto 80-90kts in the downbursts, thats pretty extreme on its own and can cause a heck of a lot of damage, thats borderline cat-2 hurricane strength at the higher end!

Expect embedded supercells in what seems to be the derecho so tornadoes remain a very large risk as does the large hail and the extreme gusts.

Will be interesting to see if any supes form in front of the line of thunderstorms, if they do they will become very severe and dangerous quickly.

Edit-also a hotel has gone down spotters say there was a rain wrapped tornado in the region.

Edited April 10, 2008 by kold weather

[Nick F]

Yes, lots of reports of damaging straight-line winds from the squall line crossing east OK and NE TX now into Wern MO and AR.

If I was going to chase today, I'd probably head for somewhere in NE Arkansas up into the Missouri Bootheel, don't want to be chasing around Nern AR in the Ozark mountains or chasing the hills/lakes/forests of Sern MO! Maybe be too much of a haul from yesterday's target of Abilene to Ern AR/SEern MO by road +plus would need to punch squall line, but I have hired a virtual Lear Jet

Temps hitting 70F already in Memphis and Little Rock - with Tds of 63-64F over central AR - and its only the early morning. If storms can initiate in this area before the squall line arrives - they're going to be pretty severe!

[pottyprof]

Just been watching the news from Fort Worth.. Cant make me mind up if it was a tornado or straight line winds...

[Paul Sherman]

If we were out there I would not really be Interested in This At all TBH!!

But for the fun og it I am going to pick Monroe (LA) As a starting point for today, once the Linear Squall clears off there should be a good chance of Surface Based Supercells later today and then Chase them North East into Arkansas.

But as I said, having Chased this area in 2006 and nearly came a cropper twice I would not entertain this Chase if this occured in 2-3 weeks time.

Paul S

[kold weather]

Just goes to show how powerful those straight winds are though doesn't it Potty, As I said before I'm willing to bet they are 80-90kts though some of the damage done seemsto be a little too extreme for those sorts of winds.

Nick, yeah if things can kick off behind the squall then the atmosphere is there for some explosive development, also a little ahead of the line there is always a chance of supercells kicking off, though once again cloud cover could limit instablity I'd guess.

[pottyprof]

The footage they keep showing as the storm passed through is stunning.. Very much like you see during a hurricane..

Nice to see you're becoming a bit of an addict Kold.. We'll soon see you up at 4am..

Current state of play from the radar, satellite and the SPC

[Nick F]

I'm not sure much of Ern AR, Ern MO and LA will get behind the squall line, rather these areas stay in the warm moist air hence the MDT risk here - looks like the cold front will stall over Wern AR/MO as a low over SE OK moves north into KS, looking at sfc progs:

Cold front finally reaches Ern AR/LA/MO at 0600 UTC (midnight there time):

[Gorky]

I guess I'd be looking over towards eastern MO / western TN as a start location. I know I've picked the bootheel many times before but it's nice and flat and has the best chance of some decent clearing and heating causing storms to form ahead of the line I think.

Caruthersville will be my starting location today!

[Muffelchen]

Been holding-off on start point as difficult day to guess. Have finally decided: was going to head for Shreveport but will now go further East, Monroe seems a fair bet.

Not all that confident though and today is probably going to be a bust.

Last night was a stoater though!

Muffel

[kold weather]

Looks like there are three main areas of risk today, one certainty is going to be along the squall line, I fully expeect some more damaging straight wind reports, the next is probably going to be behind the line but there probably be quite the same extreme instablity as in front but there is still plenty of instablity present and the big unknown is ahead of the line and whether any clear slots form. IR does show a little slot ahead of the line that could well become very unstable and if storms do break out like last night they are going to become rapidly severe and become supercells, indeed if anything the set-up today is better then yesterday. IF the cloud cover does decay ahead of the line then expect a high risk warning to be issued.

Potty- yeah anything exterme and I can't help myself and since I follow hurricanes I thought it'd be nice in the build up period to look at the tornado season, then once thats coming towards an end all the tropical waves and systems should be kicking off!

Tornado on the squall line it seems:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

809 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

NORTHWESTERN HOWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT.

* AT 807 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WILLOW SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

WILLOW SPRINGS BY 820 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF CLEAR SPRINGS...ARROLL...EUNICE AND HARTSHORN ARE ALSO

IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

Edited April 10, 2008 by kold weather

[pottyprof]

TornadoWarning - 10/1445Z

WFUS54 KSHV 101410

TORSHV

ARC027-057-073-091-099-101445-

/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0037.080410T1409Z-080410T1445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

909 AM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SOUTHEASTERN HEMPSTEAD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

NORTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...STAMPS...LEWISVILLE...

EAST CENTRAL MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SOUTHWESTERN NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 909 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR GARLAND...

OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF LEWISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEWISVILLE BY 915 AM CDT...

9 MILES NORTHWEST OF STAMPS BY 920 AM CDT...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT THURSDAY FOR

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A

TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT THURSDAY

AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3365 9348 3338 9329 3325 9375 3339 9388

TIME...MOT...LOC 1409Z 234DEG 42KT 3338 9372

$$

Rotation tracks for the last 1hr 20

[kold weather]

A new watch now for the southern part of the squall line:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0189_radar_big.gif

It doesn't look as organised as it did overnight and there are gaps starting to show in the rainfall on the radar so maybe the squall line is weakening a little, which is good news for those further east as it should mean reduced cloud cover.