Arctic ice

[Iceberg]

Bluecon you've shown be 5 times(without an ice breaker, because that obviously doesn't count), over 50 years equates to around 10% hence my 10% figure for the shallower passage.

[Iceberg]

A large plume due to enter the arctic from the N American side with 850's upto 15C on Monday.

Later on in the week surface temps are forecasted to hit 15C or above in the far north of Canada. Maybe that's exception but I rather think it happens most years. Still an increase in Melting seems likely.

[bluecon]

Bluecon you've shown be 5 times(without an ice breaker, because that obviously doesn't count), over 50 years equates to around 10% hence my 10% figure for the shallower passage.

Well over a hundred boats through the NW Passage.

"The Coast Guard told us we were the 101st ship ever to go through the Northwest Passage. "Dagmar Aaen" continued on to Greenland, Iceland ans Scotland, returning to a hero's welcome in Germany on November 11. She had been away two-and-a-half-years."

http://www.arved-fuchs.de/hotspot/news_diary_frame.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7461707.stm

Thanks to Shuggee up on Corrinths thread.

high temps forcast around the NW passage next week.

[Iceberg]

Bluecon, there might be a misunderstanding of what the "opening of the NW passage" is. Ships can go through there most summers, but they have to a) break ice or B) hug the coast or c) wait out ice movement. It's generally quite dangerous.

The opening of the NW passage refers to the the NW passage being ice free. I.e a clear and persistant navigatable path.

Since 1998 the NW passage has been open more often but I didn't want to mention this as this refers to GW. Before then it was around the 10% mark. and the deeper passage even less.

If you look at the sites such as NISC etc

As you can see below the NW passage has been monitored for the last 35 years and was frequently monitored before that by the people that actually lived there.

"Analysts confirm that the passage is almost completely clear and that the region is more open than it has ever been since the advent of routine monitoring in 1972," they said in research conclusions published on the centre's website.

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks iceberg!

The major difference last year was the complete opening of the deep water channel through the archipelago and, as I've said, with the Canadian coastguards forcasting it (the deep channel) open again this year will comp.s be planning 6 weeks of shipping through it in favour of paying to use Panama?

[bluecon]

Bluecon, there might be a misunderstanding of what the "opening of the NW passage" is. Ships can go through there most summers, but they have to a) break ice or hug the coast or c) wait out ice movement. It's generally quite dangerous.

The opening of the NW passage refers to the the NW passage being ice free. I.e a clear and persistant navigatable path.

Since 1998 the NW passage has been open more often but I didn't want to mention this as this refers to GW. Before then it was around the 10% mark. and the deeper passage even less.

If you look at the sites such as NISC etc

As you can see below the NW passage has been monitored for the last 35 years and was frequently monitored before that by the people that actually lived there.

"Analysts confirm that the passage is almost completely clear and that the region is more open than it has ever been since the advent of routine monitoring in 1972," they said in research conclusions published on the centre's website.

I already posted this. Up till the last couple years ice increased in the area of the Northern passage since 1998. It will again.

Unfortunate the graphs are not up to date.

Canadian Archipelego Ice extents(area of the NW Passage) have increased greatly since 1999.

Another fallacy put to rest?

This explains why it was so easy for the St. Roch ll to traverse the passage.

http://www.socc.ca/images/seaice/islands_two.jpg

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7461707.stm

Thanks to Shuggee up on Corrinths thread.

high temps forcast around the NW passage next week.

Looking at the actual evidence it appears the ice is behind last years pace.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=19&sy=2008

Still freezing in the Arctic with a warm front on the way.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/jet_stream/index_e.html

Edited June 20, 2008 by bluecon

[Gray-Wolf]

bluecon, though a novice don't you think you are setting yourself up for a BIG fall here????????

There are folk on here who WILL constantly remimnd you of your optimism........probably until you decide leaving is preferable to putting up with the snipes.

Just a thought.

Ian.

[bluecon]

bluecon, though a novice don't you think you are setting yourself up for a BIG fall here????????

There are folk on here who WILL constantly remimnd you of your optimism........probably until you decide leaving is preferable to putting up with the snipes.

Just a thought.

Ian.

I was raised by socialist politicians.

Two of my uncles were socialist cabinet ministers in the government and so was my cousin.

The easy route would be to go for socialism.

I just look at the facts. Am a self made man and don't fear much.

[Gray-Wolf]

We now seem to be seeing the precipitous drop off of ice in the Canadian Archipelago (in line with the predicted reopening of the deep water channel in Aug). One to watch?

[bluecon]

We now seem to be seeing the precipitous drop off of ice in the Canadian Archipelago (in line with the predicted reopening of the deep water channel in Aug). One to watch?

Well if you look at this the melt seems far behind the last year.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=23&sy=2008

And if you look at this the temps are cooler or normal.

I believe unless there is a freak warm spell like last year the ice will have a large increase in the minimum.

Then again i have a bunch of friends over from England and we had a little party yesterday. All that CO2 could increase the temp in Canada.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/ca...ex_e.html?id=NU

Edited June 24, 2008 by bluecon

[Iceberg]

We've only got a couple of weeks to go so let's wait and see, I think my view and probably GW is that Arctic ice will go down to around the -2 Anom according to CT by say the 7th of July.(the same as last year) and that the melting will then continue at a probably greater rate than last year.

I take it you don't agree Bluecon but it's going to be easy enough to see. I would really like to see Arctic ice recover a bit this year so tbh I am happy for you to be right..

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7461707.stm

I thought I'd seen this last week. You can trawl through the article and see that NSIDC is calling for a similar 'type' of melt season as we are outlining bluecon.

It's all that 'thin ice', you need dead calm and -4c temps for the rest of the melt season to hold onto it and even then the slightest current would drift it around (now that it's all in teeny bits) into warmer patches of ocean.

We all want your scenario bluecon.

We none of us want an ice free pole and all that entails.

We just can't help but call it as we see it and I ,for one, am deeply worried as to the implications of what we have been seeing over the past 5 years.

Edited June 24, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Richie V]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7461707.stm

I thought I'd seen this last week. You can trawl through the article and see that NSIDC is calling for a similar 'type' of melt season as we are outlining bluecon.

It's all that 'thin ice', you need dead calm and -4c temps for the rest of the melt season to hold onto it and even then the slightest current would drift it around (now that it's all in teeny bits) into warmer patches of ocean.

We all want your scenario bluecon.

We none of us want an ice free pole and all that entails.

We just can't help but call it as we see it and I ,for one, am deeply worried as to the implications of what we have been seeing over the past 5 years.

I hope your so wrong about a possible big melt like last year. If you are wrong and we hold on to loads more ice than last year, I for one won't be a smart ass about it, I'll buy you a pint!

[Gray-Wolf]

I hope your so wrong about a possible big melt like last year. If you are wrong and we hold on to loads more ice than last year, I for one won't be a smart ass about it, I'll buy you a pint!

I'll drink to that!!!

I've not found any scientist being in any way 'glad' about the current prospects for the arctic nor any poster. Maybe the odd oil company/shipping company can see a little 'profit' in it but that is about it!!

[bluecon]

Looking bad for the alarmist.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=24&sy=2008

[Iceberg]

It does at first glance bluecon but if you dig a little deeper and look at the higher resolution images, then ignore hudson and Chukchi which melt every year then the situation looks pretty bad.

Pockets of thin ice are floating all over the place, the deeper passage of the NW only has one chunk of sheet ice left, the rest is broken up first year ice. As GW has already mentioned as soon as the ice starts breaking up like this it's had it until September or October the water reflects alot less of the sun's energy and more ice movement occurs. So far during the spring conditions for the arctic particularly away from the Canadian coast really helping the ice to hold on, lots of cloud, cooler temps, less heat from the sun etc but even under these favourable conditions the first year ice is struggling to hold on.

Conditions in the next two weeks are set to reverse to an environment more favourable to melting with Temps in the Arctic Canadian Islands already hitting 15-20C this month the highest possibility still favours rapid ice melt.

[Gray-Wolf]

Click the image for a high-resolution version.

I think this shows an easier to interpret view of how ragged things are up there. The blue areas will literally take hours/days to melt so even at 2 days old the image is well out of date! You can see the 'concentrations' through the deep water channel of the NW Passage and it looks that the early Aug 'opening date may have been a very conservative figure.

Edited June 25, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[jethro]

http://www.thelocal.se/12580/20080621/

[bluecon]

It does at first glance bluecon but if you dig a little deeper and look at the higher resolution images, then ignore hudson and Chukchi which melt every year then the situation looks pretty bad.

Pockets of thin ice are floating all over the place, the deeper passage of the NW only has one chunk of sheet ice left, the rest is broken up first year ice. As GW has already mentioned as soon as the ice starts breaking up like this it's had it until September or October the water reflects alot less of the sun's energy and more ice movement occurs. So far during the spring conditions for the arctic particularly away from the Canadian coast really helping the ice to hold on, lots of cloud, cooler temps, less heat from the sun etc but even under these favourable conditions the first year ice is struggling to hold on.

Conditions in the next two weeks are set to reverse to an environment more favourable to melting with Temps in the Arctic Canadian Islands already hitting 15-20C this month the highest possibility still favours rapid ice melt.

July is the warmest month in the Arctic.

So far no real warm temps in the 15 to 20C this year in Arctic Canada.

What do you base these statements on?

Still lots of cold weather.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/ca...ex_e.html?id=NU

Edited June 25, 2008 by bluecon

[Gray-Wolf]

June may be the period of max day length but the temps ,like here, have another 6 weeks of high temps to go! In the meantimes lots more dark water is emerging (as the 'ice concentration' map shows) so like last year, and every other year before, ice melt goes on until mid sept/early Oct. I wish I had your optimism but day on day things start to look direr than last year and surely that was bad beyond belief?

Edited June 25, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[jethro]

More evidence of volcanic activity beneath the Arctic ice:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80625140649.htm

[Iceberg]

July is the warmest month in the Arctic.

So far no real warm temps in the 15 to 20C this year in Arctic Canada.

What do you base these statements on?

Still lots of cold weather.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/ca...ex_e.html?id=NU

All the below are taken from the Northern Canadian Islands from the link you gave.

These positive anoms in this country would lead to 30+C so a rather intense heat wave.

As you can see from the forecasts plenty of warm weather to come.(To be honest there are people in this country who would be happy with 20C

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/...urlydata_e.html

Top temp of 18.6C at Sachs Harbour on the 23rd of June Average June temp of 5C

10:00 10.1 4.9 70 23 6 25.0 100.59 Mainly Clear

11:00 10.4 4.8 68 35 9 25.0 100.57 Mainly Clear

12:00 10.8 4.8 66 5 9 25.0 100.55 Mainly Clear

13:00 17.4 5.6 46 0 25.0 100.54 Mainly Clear

14:00 18.1 5.4 43 3 9 25.0 100.53 Mainly Clear

15:00 18.6 7.0 47 2 19 25.0 100.50 Mainly Clear

16:00 18.5 6.9 47 36 9 25.0 100.49 Mainly Clear

Ulukhaktok on the 24th of June max temp of 15.6C

07:00 14.3 8.3 67 8 13 25.0 100.80 Clear

08:00 14.6 7.7 63 8 17 25.0 100.77 Clear

09:00 13.8 8.0 68 0 25.0 100.77 Clear

10:00 14.5 8.0 65 10 19 25.0 100.74 Clear

11:00 15.1 7.6 61 12 17 25.0 100.74 Clear

12:00 15.6 8.7 63 11 15 25.0 100.75 Clear

13:00 15.0 8.4 65 10 26 25.0 100.77 Clear

14:00 14.4 8.0 65 11 28 25.0 100.79 Clear

15:00 13.9 7.5 65 9 28 25.0 100.81 Clear

Forcast for Cape Dorset

Fri

10°C

5°C

Sat

14°C

5°C

Sun

17°C

8°C

Forecast for Kimmirut

Fri

12°C

2°C

Sat

18°C

5°C

Sun

20°C

8°C

More evidence of volcanic activity beneath the Arctic ice:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/...80625140649.htm

Interesting, it doesn't say it's happened recently, but the fact that it can happen at all is nice to know, certainly not the slow controlled process described in some text books.

[bluecon]

One day of warm temps slightly above fifteen in a tiny area and nothing in the twenties.

Mostly the temps have been normal or colder than normal.

But you are right if there is an extended warm spell and strong winds the ice will go.

Wind is very important according to Henry Larsen. I am still of the opinion without the extreme heat of last year the ice will not end up at nearly such a low level as last year. Gotta believe the unusual heat caused above normal winds.

Don't take it so personal, it is just a difference of opinion.

June may be the period of max day length but the temps ,like here, have another 6 weeks of high temps to go! In the meantimes lots more dark water is emerging (as the 'ice concentration' map shows) so like last year, and every other year before, ice melt goes on until mid sept/early Oct. I wish I had your optimism but day on day things start to look direr than last year and surely that was bad beyond belief?

July is normally the warmest month in the Arctic and last years warm temps through August and September are anomoluos. Without the unusual warm weather and the extension into September the melt will be much smaller.

Of course your right that time will tell.

In Canada we call them Gray Wolfes , Timber Wolfes and they like to eat people.

Of course nothing like the Polar Bears appetite for people.

Edited June 26, 2008 by bluecon

[Iceberg]

Nothing's being taken personally. It's rather nice to force myself to take the time to examine the temps in that region more throughly.

A few more temperature profiles from the islands then, which indicate that it hasn't been cold there recently and that May and June where rather above average.I would almost certainly call it a warm spell. Also as they are 365 days they show the warmth which happened in July and August which isn't too far away from the warm anoms reached in May and June.

BTW I thought I said that temps had reached 15-20 not above 20. If I were to say that temperatures in the UK in May reached 25C it doesn't mean the whole month was 25C, nor that the whole country reached 25C at the same time, but that strangely 25C had been reached.