Arctic ice

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, if Gray-Wolf has to "wait and see", surely the same should be levelled at Bluecon who is making out that ice "will" recover, despite significant evidence on the contrary.

We can speculate, but we can't state with certainty what will happen this year based on current evidence, whether arguing for pro or anti AGW or pro or anti ice melt.

[millennia]

Well, if Gray-Wolf has to "wait and see", surely the same should be levelled at Bluecon who is making out that ice "will" recover, despite significant evidence on the contrary.

We can speculate, but we can't state with certainty what will happen this year based on current evidence, whether arguing for pro or anti AGW or pro or anti ice melt.

Global warming appears to be affecting the temperature of these boards again , I think I'll duck out for a few days - maybe go skiing in Aspen!

[bluecon]

As the ice forcast reports make plain an open Northwest passage has been an infrequent visitor up north but never, to our historical knowledge, in two consecutive years.

But of course the MSM makes it seem as though it has never been possible to traverse the North West passage in 80 some days in the past. I met Larsen when I was a young kid. To bad I was to young to question him.

[SnowBear]

So do we all agree on one thing, to leave the in depth analysis of the ice for 2008 until the appropriate time? Thats all of us both pro and anti and those getting a sore derrière on the fence?

Edited June 14, 2008 by SnowBear

[jethro]

Just seen this....

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=impure...the-driven-snow

[Gray-Wolf]

We'd already done this in Jan of Feb regarding the Greenland ice sheet. Of course we had the green/yellow snow in Siberia 2 winters ago.....Chinese lignite is not the cleanest burning of fuels, as many living under the yellow smog of it's output will attest to......if they live long enough/are allowed to speak out......

[biffvernon]

Whoops, the blue line seems to have crossed the green dotty line.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Whoops, the blue line seems to have crossed the green dotty line.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png

Oh yes its heading back above last year again...good spot.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for your synopsis you guys :lol:

We must be mindful that last years melt included the perennial ice which is now thin, single year ice so we'd expect this years melt to advance beyond last years rate in its 'mid-phase' of melt. The real crunch is whether more perennial ice fails this year and ,to get to that point, we must be clear of the single year. Maybe by mid-July We'll have a better idea how things are going.

[bluecon]

Quite interesting the press is reporting that last years voyages through the NorthWest passage were a first when nothing of the sort is true.

"The problem is that ships have sailed through the Northwest Passage before today and long before a police patrol did it in 2000. It has happened several times. The historically impassable route has been passed through numerous times for over a century now.

Here is a photo of the St. Roch. It’s a wooden ship, not some massive, metallic icebreaker. According to the Vancouver Maritime Museum web site, this 104 foot wooden ship sailed through the Northwest Passage from 1940 to 1942, that was from west to east. In 1944 it did it again from from east to west. King George VI awarded Captain Henry Larsen, and the crew, the Polar Medal for making the 1944 voyage.

The Maritime Museum also includes a little information about the Northwest Passage as well. And they specifically mention that the famed Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen “became the first person to sail the entire Passage from east to west” and that was in 1906.

Remember that police patrol boat that went through the Passage on the other “first” time in 2000? It was actually named the St. Roch II. It sailed the same route as the first St. Roch as a fund raiser to help preserve the original ship. They were re-enacting the previous voyage from 60 years earlier.

The USS Storis made the journey in 1957 as this US Coast Guard history of the ship mentions. They do claim, falsely, that this trip “ended a 450-year search for the Northwest Passage” neglecting to mention the St. Roch did it twice before them and Amundsen did so as well. Here is a photo of the Storis during its 1957 trip through the Northwest Passage.

A Dutch businessman, Willy de Roos, 56, made a solo voyage through the Northwest Passage in 1977 and you can see a Canadian Broadcasting Network clip on the journey here. They have another report on the S.S. Manhattan making the trip through the Passage in 1969

I shouldn’t neglect to mention that a couple of Canadians, Mike Beedell and Jeffrey MacInnis, sailed through the Northwest Passage using a catamaran with wind power only. That was in 1988. And in 1985 there was a diplomatic row between the US and Canada because the ship, the Polar Sea, was setting sail through the Northwest Passage and hadn’t asked Canadian permission. The US argued it was international waters and Canada said it wasn’t.

Even tourists on the M.V. Lindblad, a Swedish ship, have traveled through the Northwest Passage. They did it with luxurious food and in comfort. The trip was a 40 day trip from Newfoundland to Japan via the Passage and cost the tourists $16,000 to $22,000 in 1984! You can even hear the captain being interviewed by Canadian radio saying that the ice is in retreat and the water is open. That was back during the time when the panic mongers were pushing the global cooling theory. The Lindblad made a second trip through the Passage in 1988.

In 1977 another Canadian ship, with four Canadians, made the trip through the Passage as well. At one point of their trip they sailed together with the Dutch businessman who was making the solo trip. So you had two different ships traveling through the “historically impassable” Passage at the same time. I guess that is the Passage’s equivalent of a rush hour."

http://freestudents.blogspot.com/2007/09/b...st-passage.html

[The PIT]

Thanks Bluecon. Does show how bad the memory can be for the pro AGW brigade at times doesn't it. I guess the story will run again sometime in the future as well.

[Devonian]

Thanks Bluecon. Does show how bad the memory can be for the pro AGW brigade at times doesn't it. I guess the story will run again sometime in the future as well.

I've checked a few of those report. At least two of them took YEARS to complete, another was a vast icebreaker, another was a specially strengthened yacht. The blog author does not mention this...

Last year the passage was ice free. In none of the reports was it so, the people fought their way through it.

People can believe whatever they want, but I think the blog report is, how shall I put it, ever so slightly spun... But, I urge people to listen to or watch the reports the blogger mentions and draw their own conclusions - for me they undermine his case..

[bluecon]

I've checked a few of those report. At least two of them took YEARS to complete, another was a vast icebreaker, another was a specially strengthened yacht. The blog author does not mention this...

Last year the passage was ice free. In none of the reports was it so, the people fought their way through it.

People can believe whatever they want, but I think the blog report is, how shall I put it, ever so slightly spun... But, I urge people to listen to or watch the reports the blogger mentions and draw their own conclusions - for me they undermine his case..

Your post is not based on fact. The little St. Roch operated in the Arctic for years and Larsen thought he could cross through the NW passage many times.

In 1944 the little St. Roch with a small diesel for power crossed from Halifax to Vancouver through the NW Passage in 86 days for the whole trip. 7,500 miles in 86 days with a 130hp diesel and sail power.

"Larsen made several requests to proceed through the North West passage during years when ice conditions appeared conducive to success. For example in 1936-37 when Sir James MacBrien toured the North he asked if he could proceed through, only to be reminded they were RCMP officers and not explorers."

http://lit.lib.ru/t/tatarin_l_s/msword-29.shtml

And in 2,000 the little St. Roch II easily made it through with little ice to contend with.

http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/federal_po...cs/clips/13660/

Edited June 16, 2008 by bluecon

[Gray-Wolf]

As Dev. has pointed out sections of the NW Passage open every year (it running through the archipelago of course) and, with time, you could slowly pick your way through the shallow,coastal Polynya's that tide/wind rip open in the fast ice.

Last year, as you know, the "Deep Water Channel" open for the first time which, in theory, would have allowed the largest ocean going vessels (supertankers) to sail around the passage.

Can you perceive the difference here?

The worse thing that the opening of the NW and Eastern passage brings is the prospect of ships actually using them. Ships are one of the dirtiest modes of transport available to man (discounting the shuttle etc.). The soot from the smoke stacks raises real concern about contamination of both sea ice and snow in the high arctic lowering it's albedo and enabling melt to occur at much lower temps.

If you check out the archive images from MODIS I think you'll find some sat images of the North Atlantic showing both the density of vapour trails when condition allow but also the 'trails' of smoke left by cargo ships crossing the pond.

Not good, not good at all.

Jethro posted an article above concerning the 'soot' problem which mooted a summer close down of the worst polluters with them working overwinter when the 'soot' layer could be buried by fresh snow and so not affect the albedo......sailing ships in the high arctic from mid-summer onwards is the worst possible time to do it!

Edited June 16, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Mr Sleet]

I've checked a few of those report. At least two of them took YEARS to complete, another was a vast icebreaker, another was a specially strengthened yacht. The blog author does not mention this...

Last year the passage was ice free. In none of the reports was it so, the people fought their way through it.

People can believe whatever they want, but I think the blog report is, how shall I put it, ever so slightly spun... But, I urge people to listen to or watch the reports the blogger mentions and draw their own conclusions - for me they undermine his case..

This seems quite a key post in this debate. Could you post up your evidence ? Save us guys spending hours trying to find it B)

[Devonian]

This seems quite a key post in this debate. Could you post up your evidence ? Save us guys spending hours trying to find it

You mean you want me to wade though all those media clips (again...) post what they say (again) and then you'll perhaps do a bluecon etc on me and claim either I'm wrong, not basing what I say on fact, misleading or some such

Ok, I'll do it - later, If I've time

Actually, it's quite simple. It's been possible to get through the NW passage at times in the past (on another tack the St Roch was also specially built for ice condition - read the link). That's possible to get through. Last year it was open water - you could get through in a balsawood dingy . Now, some people might not see, of choose to see, the difference, and tbh I can't help them much if that's the case, but I can see it.

It's like the difference between an open road and a packed road - which on is passable, which one open?

[bluecon]

Definately not true. Larsen's voyage in 1944 is well documented and I sure would like to see the photographs. Obviously if you go 7500miles in 86 days with a small diesel you are not slowly picking your way through ice. The St. Roch was built to survive being trapped in the ice and was no ice breaker. It travelled all over the Arctic for many years and was routinely frozen in the ice for the winter. He actually picked up and delivered an Inuit family during the voyage and of course there is a book written by Larsen about the St. Roch in the Artic.

From the summer of 2,000.

"A Canadian police patrol boat has completed a voyage through the fabled Northwest Passage without encountering any pack ice.

It opens up the possibility of commercial shipping using a route which would shorten the journey between Europe and Asia by about eight-thousand kilometres (5,000 miles). Most of the passage along the coast of Alaska and Canada lies north of the Arctic Circle and scientists say that the absence of ice may be further evidence of global warming.

But conservationists are concerned that commercial exploitation could irreversibly damage the pristine environment, particularly if the route is used by oil tankers. The Canadian patrol boat the St Roch II - renamed after an earlier Canadian expedition in 1944 - made the journey in nine weeks, less than half the time expected."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/918448.stm

[Mr Sleet]

You mean you want me to wade though all those media clips (again...) post what they say (again) and then you'll perhaps do a bluecon etc on me and claim either I'm wrong, not basing what I say on fact, misleading or some such

Ok, I'll do it - later, If I've time

Actually, it's quite simple. It's been possible to get through the NW passage at times in the past (on another tack the St Roch was also specially built for ice condition - read the link). That's possible to get through. Last year it was open water - you could get through in a balsawood dingy . Now, some people might not see, of choose to see, the difference, and tbh I can't help them much if that's the case, but I can see it.

It's like the difference between an open road and a packed road - which on is passable, which one open?

I need evidence. Save what you find as you go, then post it up !

[Gray-Wolf]

Dev. Please don't allow yourself to be wound by the likes of Mr S. The reports/data he seeks are out there for those who wish to find them, like the latest reports on the underestimation of the Greenland ice sheet melt, so ,if they truely wish to be current with the northern Cryosphere then let them break a sweat for once as surely they must do when cobbling together their disingenuous 'facts'.

Not long now before we have total confirmation of just how drastic our northern ice is faring, let's not forget, nor become hardened to, just how dramatic last years losses were. To even come close to equalling them will be appalling, to surpass the losses??

[Admiral_Bobski]

Dev. Please don't allow yourself to be wound by the likes of Mr S. The reports/data he seeks are out there for those who wish to find them, like the latest reports on the underestimation of the Greenland ice sheet melt, so ,if they truely wish to be current with the northern Cryosphere then let them break a sweat for once as surely they must do when cobbling together their disingenuous 'facts'.

Not long now before we have total confirmation of just how drastic our northern ice is faring, let's not forget, nor become hardened to, just how dramatic last years losses were. To even come close to equalling them will be appalling, to surpass the losses??

Gray-Wolf,

I, and I'm sure others, don't appreciate that tone ("the likes of Mr S," "cobbling together their disingenuous 'facts'"). Is it unfair to request information sources (which would seem somewhat two-faced considering the frequent calls for skeptics to produce their evidence)?

As for the "dramatic" ice losses last year, it is worth noting that the summer losses were following on from a low winter maximum. This is not a comparison with this year's ice extent - I accept that the multiyear ice levels are probably lower this year than last year despite the overall ice level being higher. If we look back at the ice extent graph posted previously then we can see that although the minimum in 2007 was quite a bit lower than the 1979-2000 average, as was the maximum, the actual rate of decline was not significantly faster (though I will grant that it was a little faster than average).

So although the actual ice extent was particularly low at minimum (as it was at maximum as well), the actual rate of ice loss was not catastrophic.

Back to this year though, who knows what the future holds in store? So far the rate of decline has exceeded last year's from time to time, but right now we don't seem to be any worse off, in terms of ice extent, than we were last year (and it's already mid-June). How the arctic sea ice will fare over the remainder of the summer is anyone's guess right now and, as has been said oh-so-many times already, only time will tell.

CB

[jethro]

Dev. Please don't allow yourself to be wound by the likes of Mr S. The reports/data he seeks are out there for those who wish to find them, like the latest reports on the underestimation of the Greenland ice sheet melt, so ,if they truely wish to be current with the northern Cryosphere then let them break a sweat for once as surely they must do when cobbling together their disingenuous 'facts'.

Not long now before we have total confirmation of just how drastic our northern ice is faring, let's not forget, nor become hardened to, just how dramatic last years losses were. To even come close to equalling them will be appalling, to surpass the losses??

Wouldn't it be better, more diplomatic and generally nicer all round, to just agree to disagree with someone eh? A few times recently you've complained in thread about being reprimanded; it's within your power to change that you know.

I've said it before and at the risk of being boring, I'll say it again, your opinion is different to other's, NOT superior.

Again, can we play nicely?????

[grab my graupel]

Come on please folks!

This thread is beginning to deteriorate again. Can we not have a discussion in this area for more than a week

without some sort of petty arguing breaking out.

It is starting to get a little bit tiresome

Brian

[Gray-Wolf]

Firstly I will appologise for any offence I may have caused to reader on this thread. I do ,however, find it irksome to find folk who claim to be interested/passionate about a topic not being bothered to put in a little time and effort on their own behalf and crying out to be 'spoonfed' details/data.

If someone has gone to the trouble of rooting out info, and given source names, then surely we can do the rest for ourselves .

As Jethro suggested I shall tone it down.

[jethro]

You're a star

[Osbourne One-Nil]

No wonder the ice caps are melting then.