Arctic ice

[bluecon]

or did I say that before?

As the anthropogenic CO2 has a huge increase and the Earth cools the 'scientist' beat their heads against the wall. What passes as science is so embarrassing.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Show me a graph that has the Earth cooling.

[bluecon]

Show me a graph that has the Earth cooling.

The AGW zealots have so far been able to twist the facts on the Earths cooling. The next couple years will show the truth.

[beng]

Show me a graph that has the Earth cooling.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/TRENDAPRIL.jpg

Yes it doesn't prove anything yet - since it's only a 5 year timeframe - but it is interesting given the lack of volcanic acivity, enso conditions averaging slightly positive since 2002 , and with both the PDO and AMO positive for most of the period (until the PDO switched last year) you might be forgiven for expecting the 5 year trend to have shown warming (I also think you could knock out the recent la nina from the graph and you still wouldn't have a warming trend). The only obvious factor that would have favoured no warming is the current solar cycle.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/TRENDAPRIL.jpg

Yes it doesn't prove anything yet - since it's only a 5 year timeframe - but it is interesting given the lack of volcanic acivity, enso conditions averaging slightly positive since 2002 , and with both the PDO and AMO positive for most of the period (until the PDO switched last year) you might be forgiven for expecting the 5 year trend to have shown warming (I also think you could knock out the recent la nina from the graph and you still wouldn't have a warming trend). The only obvious factor that would have favoured no warming is the current solar cycle.

The PDO has been negative for a few years now around turn of the century. The Perturbation Cycle [La Nina] started last year. This is important because both phases have now aligned hence why such largescale cooling over the last 12 months. [it would appear that the -ve PDO stabilised temps. This is now coinciding with a current low sunspot minima which if the peak of cycle 24 is low is likely to lead to a Dalton [at least] solar minima. The AMO is still posiotive but is anticipated to switch by 2010 and all these natural cycles don't often combine together. When they do.....empirical evidence has shown what happens.

The positive ENSO coincided with the huge peaks of cycle 21/2/3 which can/does account for the warming between 80 to 00.

BFTP

Edited May 25, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7417123.stm

Things would appear to be in more disorder than I imagined. The cracks will be continuing their growth/disintegration by July/Aug and we'd better hope that both they and the multiyear behind Greenland do not break free and drift into the open (dark) waters as I fear that they will rapidly ablate through Aug/Sept.

I still cannot believe some folk are harping on about the thin skin that pushed last years 'ice extent' up (but well below the historical averages) as if it matters! Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear......clutching at ice straws methinks......

[beng]

The PDO has been negative for a few years now around turn of the century. The Perturbation Cycle [La Nina] started last year. This is important because both phases have now aligned hence why such largescale cooling over the last 12 months. [it would appear that the -ve PDO stabilised temps. This is now coinciding with a current low sunspot minima which if the peak of cycle 24 is low is likely to lead to a Dalton [at least] solar minima. The AMO is still posiotive but is anticipated to switch by 2010 and all these natural cycles don't often combine together. When they do.....empirical evidence has shown what happens.

The positive ENSO coincided with the huge peaks of cycle 21/2/3 which can/does account for the warming between 80 to 00.

BFTP

Just to be pedantic - the PDO did switch negative briefly around 2000, but since then it was mainly positive up until last year

http://atmoz.org/img/nao-pdo-amo-timeseries.png

[biffvernon]

oh dear......clutching at ice straws methinks......

Skating on thin ice, you mean.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Skating on thin ice, you mean.

That was open water last year

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

These plots would suggest otherwise BFTP.......we appear to be ahead of last years melt/ice extent which, from a higher level of ice at max extent, is pretty worrying......or not?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

These plots would suggest otherwise BFTP.......we appear to be ahead of last years melt/ice extent which, from a higher level of ice at max extent, is pretty worrying......or not?

Very possibly

BFTP

[laserguy]

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/

???

[Devonian]

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/

???

In the newspapers that's called a 'spoiler'.

I mean, there is still ice up there, so it is still possible to get stuck. The reality that seems to be difficult to get across to the AW's of this world is that there is less ice and it's thinner. Perhaps you can help with that?

Edited May 28, 2008 by Devonian

[Gray-Wolf]

In the newspapers that's called a 'spoiler'.

I mean, there is still ice up there, so it is still possible to get stuck. The reality that seems to be difficult to get across to the AW's of this world is that there is less ice and it's thinner. Perhaps you can help with that?

The other thing we might recall is the northward lurch of the multiyear pack that used to be cemented to the sea bed around the archipelago. If they ran into a big enough blob of that then even the mighty Russian icebreakers will become fast. Seeing as the ice trapping them drifted off I imagine this is just what occurred. So, dying remnants of the old multiyear ice traps ice breaker........not the same kinda spin eh?

[trevw]

nsidc have finally updated their ice area graph and it shows extent converging with last years levels..

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews

[bluecon]

nsidc have finally updated their ice area graph and it shows extent converging with last years levels..

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews

Actually it shows much more sea ice in April 2008 than April 2007 and at least in the Canadian Arctic May 2008 has been colder than 2007. The whole country of Canada has been below normal for temps.

Edited May 29, 2008 by bluecon

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, it shows that April 2008 had a greater ice cover than April 2007, and May 2008 hasn't been particularly warm in polar regions.

However, the article does say that because of the much higher proportion of first-year ice, all other things being equal, we would expect a much faster melt this summer than last summer- and it would take particularly favourable summer conditions in the Arctic not to break last year's record.

[Gray-Wolf]

The 'New' ice is effectively holding a vice like grip on the damage done last Aug/Sept and as T.W.S. has said this 'clamp' will fail quite readily over the next 2 months releasing the skyscraper sized 'multiyear' chunks to slug it out like a number of 'battling tops' on speed.

I would suggest another 6 weeks patience from everyone whose watching to see how it shakes down this year......I'm sure there will be plenty to natter about from that point in.......

[trevw]

Actually it shows much more sea ice in April 2008 than April 2007 and at least in the Canadian Arctic May 2008 has been colder than 2007. The whole country of Canada has been below normal for temps.

absolutely, more ice extent in april 08.

since when the curves have converged as the rate of extent loss has been greater this year than last since mid april.. if this trend is continued then some time before the end of June you would expect the curves to cross and for us to be ahead of last years ice loss.. will be interesting.

[bluecon]

absolutely, more ice extent in april 08.

since when the curves have converged as the rate of extent loss has been greater this year than last since mid april.. if this trend is continued then some time before the end of June you would expect the curves to cross and for us to be ahead of last years ice loss.. will be interesting.

My prediction is that with extreme cold in the Arctic this year and the huge thick and new ice and the late warming the ice pack will result in a return to normal of the ice pack. Time will tell. We will soon see. With the lower heat from the Sun and the cooling of the oceans plus a little from the volcanoes it seems inevitable.

Edited May 31, 2008 by bluecon

[biffvernon]

With the lower heat from the Sun and the cooling of the oceans plus a little from the volcanoes it seems inevitable.

A little what from volcanos?

[Chris Knight]

The 'New' ice is effectively holding a vice like grip on the damage done last Aug/Sept and as T.W.S. has said this 'clamp' will fail quite readily over the next 2 months releasing the skyscraper sized 'multiyear' chunks to slug it out like a number of 'battling tops' on speed.

I would suggest another 6 weeks patience from everyone whose watching to see how it shakes down this year......I'm sure there will be plenty to natter about from that point in.......

.......just a few days now, the big meltdown starts in earnest.

[Gray-Wolf]

My prediction is that with extreme cold in the Arctic this year and the huge thick and new ice and the late warming the ice pack will result in a return to normal of the ice pack.

??

I thought that all the measurements for the single year ice show it at 1/2 normal thickness or less??? Doesn't ice formation (and thickness) have as much to do with sea temps as air temps? If the warm water is being continually refreshed with waters from further south then how can ice thicken?

I'm beginning to suspect we live on different planets bluecon!!

May 23, 2008

Researchers predict ice-free North Pole this year

Has melt reached tipping point where retreat cannot be halted?

JANE GEORGE

Here's the good news: this summer's Arctic ice melt means an early start to the Hudson Bay shipping season. Forecasts show Coast Guard icebreakers will no longer be necessary for shipping to Churchill after July 16.

This figure shows probable ice conditions in Hudson Bay in July. The dark area in the centre indicates below-normal ice conditions. Ice experts predict the shipping season in Hudson Bay may open two weeks earlier than normal this year.

(COURTESY OF THE NATIONAL SNOW AND ICE DATA CENTER)

That's 15 days earlier than the average ice-free shipping date of July 31, which means re-supply barges should able to reach communities in Nunavut's Kivalliq and Kitikmeot regions that much earlier.

But the down side to the retreat of the Arctic's thin ice cover is a 50-50 chance that the North Pole will become ice-free this September - for the first time in more than 100,000 years.

"The North Pole is where there's supposed to be ice," said environmental scientist Mark Serreze in a recent telephone interview from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.

Scientists like Serreze say the weakness of the ice that's melting is responsible for the retreat of Arctic sea ice.

As old ice melts, a development linked to rising water and air temperatures, the new, thin ice that forms in its place in the winter tends to melt much more rapidly in the spring and summer.

During the month of April, scientists determined that the Arctic's increasingly flimsy sea ice cover shrank by 6,000 square kilometres every day.

If this ice continues to melt at the same rate as in 2007, scientists predict that only 2.22 million sq km of ice - less than the size of Nunavut - will remain in the Arctic Ocean this September. This would be much less than the record low of 4.28 million sq km set in 2007.

A major concern is whether the Arctic ice melt has reached a "tipping point," where even tough measures to curb global warming won't stop its final retreat.

After this tipping point is reached, the Arctic Ocean is expected to settle into an ice-free state every summer.

Tipping points were the hot topic at last week's Arctic Forum conference in Washington, D.C., where scientists looked at the potential consequences of these "points of no return" on the environment and people.

The impact of tipping points may explain why the Norse in Greenland died out during the 1400s.

The Norse settlers were unable to deal with several changes occurring at the same time, suggested researcher Tom McGovern in his talk, "Well adapted but still extinct: Norse Greenland in new perspective."

Today's sea ice loss is expected to deliver many environmental changes, which will compound other social, economic and political stresses in the circumpolar world.

New scientific information about Arctic sea ice loss played into last week's decision by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service to list polar bears as "threatened."

Scientists expect that as sea ice thins, melts and retreats, open water will allow even more heat to enter the Arctic Ocean. This warmer ocean will in turn heat the land and melt glaciers where they flow into the water.

As Greenland's ice sheet melts, sea levels may rise, threatening many coastal, low-lying communities.

The stream of icebergs, recently seen off Newfoundland and Labrador, originate from glaciers in Greenland. Scientists suspect these icebergs reflect the breakdown of the island's huge ice sheet, which is occurring many times faster than scientists believed possible.

Over the short term, an ice-free Arctic Ocean will open up new possibilities, including easier access to natural resources and new transportation routes.

The Northern sea route, the shipping lane from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean along the Siberian coast, is expected to open up this summer, and the Northwest Passage through Nunavut waters is also likely to be navigable by August.

Edited June 1, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html

Out of interest I've linked some web cams at the north pole so we can see if/when the ice melts (and also the weather up there). NSIDC have deployed some ocean going buoys atop of the pack up there awaiting this summers forcast melt........they seem rather confident of it occurring now don't they?

The more dark water opened up to solar heating the hotter the ocean becomes up there and the slower it will be to cool down leading to even thinner single year ice than this winters come autumn......................tipping point anyone????

[bluecon]

The weakness to the argument of all the ice dissapearing is the fact that their was extreme cold in the Arctic last winter and the new ice is thicker than last year and then May was much colder than last year. Using last years weather to predict this years ice melt makes no 'common sense'.

I am very interested in seeing what happens. Somebody is going to have egg on their face.

A little what from volcanos?

of course vplcanic activity has a tendency to cool the Earth. The recent eruption likely has as much affect as any anthropogenic CO2.