Summer Discussion!

[azores92]

mike,i think that is hopecasting rather than a backed up opinion. at the moment, a hot and wet summer is favoured, and a summer to beat 1976 is still some time away imo.

[Bottesford]

Just out of interest, could somebody list every summer with a CET of 17C+, i believe that 1976, 1995, 2003 and 2006 achieved this, however i am not sure which others did.

The top few as a screenshot:

Or the complete dataset output from CETAnalyser:

summer17pluss.xls

Based on summer CET >16.9c

EDIT:

oooopsss spot the 'deliberate' mistake!

Try again this time to 2 d.p.! Summer >16.99c

summer17pluss.xls

EDIT 2:

This time in warmest-coolest order:

You don't wanna know what kinda day I've had at work today!

Yep finally got it right now

[Scorcher]

That table is very interesting, 1983 is very surprising. Hard to believe such a warm summer followed such a cold spring- look how close April got to being colder than January! Even June was relatively cool, it is quite amazing that the 2nd warmest month on record followed it.

[Snowyowl9]

Last summer was a freaky one thats for sure never seen it so wet can`t see anything like that a one of a kind that was at least it dried up for august if still cool, although 2004 was a long drawn out one meaning much too wet with not enough dry spells plenty of thunder mind, who knows what this summer will bring lots of variety is all I ask for dry warm/hot spells mixed with fresher atlantic air and of course thunderstorms at times and humid S-ly and the odd cold wet day/2 like last summer to be refreshed if it gets too hot.

[Iceni]

Last summer was a freaky one thats for sure never seen it so wet can`t see anything like that a one of a kind that was at least it dried up for august if still cool, although 2004 was a long drawn out one meaning much too wet with not enough dry spells plenty of thunder mind, who knows what this summer will bring lots of variety is all I ask for dry warm/hot spells mixed with fresher atlantic air and of course thunderstorms at times and humid S-ly and the odd cold wet day/2 like last summer to be refreshed if it gets too hot.

Variety's the key for me as well. I hate weeks of one kind of weather (unless it's snow in the winter)

This year it's my parents' Diamond Wedding in mid September and and my Dad's 90th birthday in November... so I'm hoping for a warm September for the marquee. Their Golden Anniversary in September '98 was a scorcher and it got above 25C so we had to bring in the wine set out on the tables.

If we have to go through the purduh of a vile August to have a sunny September, I don't mind.

[Bottesford]

Summer is one time I don't mind lack of variety - so long as the prevailing pattern is one of hot sunshine and generally dry. The odd thundery interlude is always welcomed though.

Not averse to a freshening up few days so long as the warm, sunny pattern reloads.

Last summer was the worst I can remember - probably on par with the dreadful ones in the 80s.

[Scorcher]

Variety's the key for me as well. I hate weeks of one kind of weather (unless it's snow in the winter)

This year it's my parents' Diamond Wedding in mid September and and my Dad's 90th birthday in November... so I'm hoping for a warm September for the marquee. Their Golden Anniversary in September '98 was a scorcher and it got above 25C so we had to bring in the wine set out on the tables.

If we have to go through the purduh of a vile August to have a sunny September, I don't mind.

For your and your parents' sake I hope September is warm and sunny but I definitely wouldn't sacrifice August for a warm settled September! By the end of September the sun is a lot lower and weaker than it is in August and the days are shorter of course, so you can't quite get the full benefits of the sunshine as you can in August.

I too would like to see some variety this summer but I would like it to be predominantly sunny with temperatures above 24C, with a few thundery interludes. I would like the rain to be infrequent though as damp ground and soil can suppress temperatures. In my opinion it would also be nice to see some record temperatures at some stage- there was nothing better than seeing the BBC weather forecasts during 2006 when they were forecasting 34-37C right across England, quite astonishing! Never thought I would see the day, and I have to say I was on top of the world during July 06!

Edited April 17, 2008 by Scorcher

[William of Walworth]

Summer is one time I don't mind lack of variety - so long as the prevailing pattern is one of hot sunshine and generally dry. The odd thundery interlude is always welcomed though.

Not averse to a freshening up few days so long as the warm, sunny pattern reloads.

Last summer was the worst I can remember - probably on par with the dreadful ones in the 80s.

You know the score Mr B! B)

Some of us in the festival community even those less interested in the weather than me, are DESPARATE for a predominantly sunny/warm summer this time, after 2007's debacle ...

And if this summer's has to be indifferent to rubbish generally, let's at least have a heatwave the last 2 weeks of June to compensate!

I too would like to see some variety this summer but I would like it to be predominantly sunny with temperatures above 24C, with a few thundery interludes. I would like the rain to be infrequent though as damp ground and soil can suppress temperatures. In my opinion it would also be nice to see some record temperatures at some stage- there was nothing better than seeing the BBC weather forecasts during 2006 when they were forecasting 34-37C right across England, quite astonishing! Never thought I would see the day, and I have to say I was on top of the world during July 06!

Living up to your name ....

I'm with you, even if long hot spells mean variety lovers get bored, after last year we need them!

Edited April 18, 2008 by William of Walworth

[frostypaw]

Calm calm WoW not every thread is about Glastonbury.

Away from that...

Can someone here explain to me why everyone is quite so set on this summer being wet?

Lately summers have been very dry - until last year hosepipe bans had started to seem a normal part of summer life down here in the south. Is it just that last year was SO bad and 2006 a bit meh that's changed people's minds or is there a greater pattern that's so accepted it's not being talked about?

Would last year's extreme wet have swung the long-term models a bit? Doubt it's that simple - but what do those in the know think?

Edited April 18, 2008 by frostypaw

[Thundery wintry showers]

In Tyne & Wear I don't think last summer was any worse sunshine wise than 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002 or 2004, while 2002 was comparably wet and 2004 was wetter, so for that part of the country, the reaction to last summer was a bit OTT. For other regions, the wettest June-July combo on record for many places, but even so, temperatures were not far below average, and nor for that matter was sunshine (over England & Wales 1998 and 2000 had duller summers for instance).

There is a sense on here that a summer is either like last year or like 1976, but realistically the odds strongly favour something in between. Maybe something like a 1999 or 2005 type summer might be on the cards, with temperatures and sunshine near or slightly above average, rainfall near or slightly below.

[Iceni]

:lol:

Lately summers have been very dry - until last year hosepipe bans had started to seem a normal part of summer life down here in the south. Is it just that last year was SO bad and 2006 a bit meh that's changed people's minds or is there a greater pattern that's so accepted it's not being talked about?

Hosepipe bans are usually necessary because the preceding winter has been dry — the only time when trees and other vegetation are not drawing up water, so reservoirs get a chance to refill. As this last winter has seemed a pretty wet one with all the rain in January, so for this summer, even if it doesn't rain for a couple of months on end, I'd be surprised if there's another ban this year.

The perfect summer for me would be like an African one... blazing sunshine then just after sunset an inch of rain — every day, with some exciting thunderstorms.

[kold weather]

How sad but I actually don't really remember much about the summer of 2005...I was too busy watching the tropical atlantic pumping out one hurricane like another!

[Scorcher]

I hope we don't get a summer like 2005 as it was a bit of a non-event in my view, not much excitement on offer really. I remember the Ashes series didn't have too many rain interruptions but there very few hot days either once we reached the middle of July. I remember September being nice though.

[summer blizzard]

Summer 2005 was quite varied, June was very warm and frequantly thundery, with the second half being "easily the warmest since 1976 according to Phillip Eden, though after a great start to July, it rapidly went downhill with the second half of the summer being extremely poor, with temperatures averaging below average, and rainfall above.

Seen as though the second half of summer 2007 averaged below average rainfall (almost all the rainfall was in the first half which averaged above average temperatures), there is an arguament for the cool second half of summer 2005 being worse than the cool period of summer 2007.

[J07]

there was nothing better than seeing the BBC weather forecasts during 2006 when they were forecasting 34-37C right across England, quite astonishing! Never thought I would see the day, and I have to say I was on top of the world during July 06!

Yes, it's wierd isn't it. Looking back at temperatures, as in "today it reached 36C in Kent" is never quite the same as watching the 6PM news and actually seeing a *forecast* for such temperatures the next day!

It's part of why I always find it wierd looking at an Australian weather map from Nov-March and seeing temperatures of 40C+ actually being forecast, sometimes for days on end, in Melbourne, Adelaide or Perth.

[Scorcher]

Yes, it's wierd isn't it. Looking back at temperatures, as in "today it reached 36C in Kent" is never quite the same as watching the 6PM news and actually seeing a *forecast* for such temperatures the next day!

It's part of why I always find it wierd looking at an Australian weather map from Nov-March and seeing temperatures of 40C+ actually being forecast, sometimes for days on end, in Melbourne, Adelaide or Perth.

Indeed, it was also strange telling people, 'it's going to be 34 degrees on Wednesday', I remember a lot of people weren't very enthusiastic about it, saying that it was too hot but I was savouring the whole situation as it doesn't happen very often in the UK! As you say though, in Australia those temps are often the norm day after day. Melbourne's forecasts are often interesting in the summer, it can be 20C one day, 41C the next and then back down to 22C the day after that!

[Bottesford]

Yes I remember those few weeks looking at BBC 5 day forecast and seeing 5 sun's in a row and maxes of 30-34c and mins all 16c+. Absolutely loved it myself despite the extreme heat in the office. The whole atmosphere of extreme long last heat is just wonderful even if a little uncomfortable at times. Coming home all windows open with the missus in her bikini instead of last year with her wrapped up and moaning cause I've left the door open again <_<

Hope we have a scorching June this year - always my favourite time to have heat with days at their longest and the students still about so lots to do (Nottingham is almost dead in high summer as relies on students so much!).

[summer blizzard]

Yes I remember those few weeks looking at BBC 5 day forecast and seeing 5 sun's in a row and maxes of 30-34c and mins all 16c+. Absolutely loved it myself despite the extreme heat in the office. The whole atmosphere of extreme long last heat is just wonderful even if a little uncomfortable at times. Coming home all windows open with the missus in her bikini instead of last year with her wrapped up and moaning cause I've left the door open again <_<

Hope we have a scorching June this year - always my favourite time to have heat with days at their longest and the students still about so lots to do (Nottingham is almost dead in high summer as relies on students so much!).

I'd say the best thing about June is the actual strength of the sun, even with temperatures of 25C, the sun strength makes if feel more like an August day in the low 30C's.

[Bottesford]

I'd say the best thing about June is the actual strength of the sun, even with temperatures of 25C, the sun strength makes if feel more like an August day in the low 30C's.

Oh yes that's true too with stronger sunlight lasting longer into the evening. 7pm sun in June is much better than 7pm sun in August!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember being unable to cope with the 40-degree heat in northern France in August 2003, but conversely, I just about managed to cope with the 35-degree heat there during the third week of July 2006.

It's the kind of thing I'm okay with as a one-off, but the excessive heat drains me when it goes on for over a few days. August 2003 was particularly bad as the period 3-12 August had maxima around 40C throughout the period in most of France.

I fondly remember the warm sunny spell during the first 12 days of June 2006 in Leeds, it was quite something being able to sit out at 7pm in the evening and just relax in the warmth, shame that the rest of the month was cloudy there. Most of the entirety of July 2006 was similar with maxima mostly around 27C and falling to very comfortable values during the evening, but as many of us will remember, things changed substantially for August.

[Roger J Smith]

My forecast for your summer ...

JUNE rather bland and near normal, occasionally quite wet, watch for a major stormy period around the 17th to 20th, seems dodgy because it's not a weekend.

JULY should see gradual improvement as a rather warm and dry summer pattern slowly emerges from the dying phases of the persistent zonality of June. Some thunderstorms worth chasing mid-month.

AUGUST may turn out to be hotter and drier than many recent Augusts have been. A peak in the QBO is one factor in this forecast (current QBO periodicity is about 25 months, a little shorter than average).

SEPTEMBER can be included because it will probably be a warmish and pleasantly dry and sunny month.

If this is what the Metoffice would accept as a typical British summer, then I guess we are on the same page here. It might be a bit like 1976 however, without the strong drought theme.

[Glacier Point]

..... A peak in the QBO is one factor in this forecast (current QBO periodicity is about 25 months, a little shorter than average).

Edited April 19, 2008 by Glacier Point

[MP-R]

It's interesting to hear that people either didn't pay attention to summer 2005 or they thought it was a non-event but actually summer 2005 was probably the most thundery summer in this area this entire millenium - even more so than 2002 and 2004. Some key events to remember:

19th June: Excessive heat with 33.1C being recorded in London, the highest temperature since 38.1C on August 11th 2003.

23rd June: 30C was widely hit across the country before the onset of thunderstorms later.

10th-14th July: 30.5C recorded in Yorkshire, 31.7C recorded in Gravesend - the warmest day of the month.

8th-11th August: A gorgeous period of weather in many places with 27C being reached bar thundery activity in some counties.

15th-18th: Another hot spell with 28.3C being reached in Surrey on the 18th.

30th August: 32.2C recorded in London, the highest temperature of the month.

3rd September: 27C in many places and 28C at Heathrow

19th June: Severe thunderstorm in Yorkshire, Hawnby receiving over 60mm in 1 hour.

23rd-24th June: Very thundery across the south at first then further north with up to 8 hours of thunder and lightning and heavy or torrential rain.

28th-29th June: Another breakdown of heat into severe thunderstorm, at first in the West Country then later in the east.

13th & 18th July: Thunderstorms breaking out across the country.

28th July: Birmingham receives severe thunderstorms and a record-breaking tornado causing damage.

31st August: Certainly a day to remember, a thundery breakdown with spectacular lightning and locally monsoonal rain.

10th September: The most intense fall of rain in the West Country from slow-moving thunderstorms.

Although there were cooler intervals in summer 2005, it should certainly not be written off completely, there were many note-worthy events as listed above in both heat and thunder terms. Wouldn't mind another summer like this if you ask me.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, 2005 was a fairly good summer. Particularly the end of June, never seen thunderstorms like it for intensity and duration!

You can see in my sig that 2005 was very thundery, so a good Summer for me.

Edited April 19, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Thundery wintry showers]

In the Tyne & Wear area summer 2005 was notable for contrasting episodes of weather. A cool, cloudy first half of June was followed by a noteworthy warm, sunny second half with a max of 27C and some big thunderstorms on the 19th, unusually for that part of the country. July was cool, dull and wet during the first week and final third- the final third had almost no sun at all- yet the second week had almost unbroken sunshine and highs in the mid 20s.

August 2005 has a rather poor reputation but in Tyneside it was quite a dry sunny month with near average temperature, coolish first half, warmish second half, and decent convective events as well. I was in Leeds while the huge storms hit Sunderland on the 31st August, but it didn't matter, because Leeds got storms of similar intensity.

So quite a memorable summer but let down by a few very dull spells, esp. final third of July. It wasn't unusually thundery in the Tyne & Wear area- four thunder-days, about average- but two of the storms that did hit were exceptional for their intensity.