Summer Discussion!

[Nick H]

Don't know how much credibility people here set by that site.

Not much. Spelling "elusive" as "illusive" in their summer forecast does not inspire confidence.

Their data sections, though, are excellent - best on the web imo.

[SP1986]

Is it Ok to mention the Weather on line late spring/early summer forecast here?

Don't know how much credibility people here set by that site. Don't know how they devise their predicitons either.

They're pessimistic for part of late May and for part of early to mid June. Correct or not correct? You decide.

Well to be fair if it was picked out of the blue I'd agree with you, but to be honest as it has been rather warm recently, the expected outcome would be what they have suggested even if they don't have such a great reputation.

[Jack Wales]

the WO forecast appears to be based enteirely on model runs for the first three weeks and the La Nina signal for the rest. IMO the mature weakening La Nina signal will spell dryer (though maybe not hot) Weather, espeically for June.

[William of Walworth]

Thanks for those responses folks, Jack especially. A dryer June more important to me a than a hot one, though both would be nice ...

Edited May 13, 2008 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

Been struggling with john holmes' excellent LRF thread, which leaves me unclear on the exact timescales/dates he's talking about, and with the currently very technical Model Output thread. Can someone put a simple summary here -- likely trends for next week, Banl Holiday weekend,  the end of May, and as far into June as people feel half way confident about?

I'm getting the sense of a fair bit more good weather than bad but I'm rather hoping for Tne Eye In The Sky's somewhat contrary prediction (in Model Output) of an unsettled/rainy period from tomorrow right into June to be further contradicted if possible! Most of the others seem to be gently questioning that.

Edited May 14, 2008 by William of Walworth

[johnholmes]

all you need to do William is pm me I am always happy to try and answer question, I just happen to see this so will try here

My lrf only goes out towards the end of May. I do not pretend to be able to give any real idea beyond about 3 weeks ahead. All anyone can do is give a general idea of the type of airmass, thus the range of temps and whether it will be dominated by cyclonic(unsettled) or anti-cyclonic(mainly settled and generally dry)

There is a risk of rain for a time this evening into Thursday for southern counties. I personally have my doubts about it giving any thunder other than the immediate Channel area. Over the weekend then the cooler air will extend over all parts with the weather once again settling down under the influence of the high to the north.

This then will be the pattern up to near the following weekend when the 500mb trough with a surface low beneath it will make progress into the Uk from the west. So then unsettled right out into distant FI land I would suggest. Once an upper trough settles then its not easily moved. So a VERY rough stab into the end of May would be unsettled with the probability of high pressure re exerting its influence as we head into June(best idea of position being to our north east).

That though William and anyone else is very very tentative beyond NEXT weekend.

hope that helps?

Edited May 14, 2008 by johnholmes

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

the WO forecast appears to be based enteirely on model runs for the first three weeks and the La Nina signal for the rest. IMO the mature weakening La Nina signal will spell dryer (though maybe not hot) Weather, espeically for June.

Absolutely. It may not be particularly hot, but there is nothing yet to suggest a return to anything like last year. The Atlantic remains quiet, and whilst the general synopsis of higher pressure to our north means suppressed temps, it should also hopefully translate into relatively dry and settled as opposed to wet and windy.

[William of Walworth]

Cheers for that John. Very helpful to a semi-knowledgeable and not very technically clued up type like myself.

I would have PMed, but I was also looking for a more general discussion too ...

Not looking great for the Bank Holiday weekend then -- you seem to be suggesting that the Atlantic will reassert itself pretty strongly for a while around BH weekend time ...

But I also discern in your post a remaining hope that there'll be a recovery after that, very late May/early June perhaps ... . as people keep saying, things can chop and change.

I (selfishly!) wish that the position of the High to our North was a bit different, so that Atlantic lows coming in from the West could be diverted more to the North .... sorry Northerners!

Edited May 14, 2008 by William of Walworth

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, if the high was further south so that it was practically covering the British Isles, it would probably mean a spell of warm dry sunny weather pretty much everywhere. Nothing unreasonably selfish about that!

The north-south split scenario results when high pressure is covering the southern half of England, and there is a strong northerly tracking jet bringing fronts and bands of cloud and drizzly rain eastwards across Scotland, for example the first half of June 2004. If the jet is weak, even northern areas don't always miss out on the fine weather in such a setup, but there still tends to be more in the way of cloud cover at times.

The BBC Weather site used to quote the best positions for sunshine from a high to be to the south or east (though I think they've changed that now, having improved their articles on weather phenomena on their website). I think that taking Britain as a whole, over or to the east of Britain would be more accurate.

[Chris Knight]

The Arctic melt is later than last year, and the ice is but one year old. The cold SSTs from the St Lawrence and Baffin meltwaters are beginning to pool off the northeast coast of N America, and are likely again to be carried to mid-Atlantic by the North Atlantic Current. Like last year it could stabilise the high pressure over the central north Atlantic, and we will then experience wet cool conditions throughout June, July and August. If the Arctic Sea Ice melts to the extent of 2007, the Autumn is likely to continue cool and wet, and the likelihood of a real winter becomes a possibility for the UK.

[Scorcher]

The Arctic melt is later than last year, and the ice is but one year old. The cold SSTs from the St Lawrence and Baffin meltwaters are beginning to pool off the northeast coast of N America, and are likely again to be carried to mid-Atlantic by the North Atlantic Current. Like last year it could stabilise the high pressure over the central north Atlantic, and we will then experience wet cool conditions throughout June, July and August. If the Arctic Sea Ice melts to the extent of 2007, the Autumn is likely to continue cool and wet, and the likelihood of a real winter becomes a possibility for the UK.

Summer discussion? Nothing more annoying than people talking about winter in May IMO. Might just start a summer thread in November, I doubt that would go down too well.

[Chris Knight]

Summer discussion? Nothing more annoying than people talking about winter in May IMO. Might just start a summer thread in November, I doubt that would go down too well.

:o Are you my wife? If not, I'd like to introduce you to her

Edited May 14, 2008 by Chris Knight

[damianslaw]

Good to see a few more responses to this thread in recent days. Still not too certain of any details for this summer, however, I'm still sticking with my thoughts that June will deliver the most persistant driest and sunniest weather of the summer though not necessarily the warmest this being reserved for July, but July and particularly August will be generally more unsettled as opposed to settled though nothing comparable to last year. All in all quite a mixed bag, a bit of everything but never anything too extreme (I am playing it safe I hear you all cry!)

What I hope for is just a few decent weekends that are predominantly dry and fairly warm, don't have to be scorching hot with wall to wall sunshine, just pleasant enough to go out walking etc, personally I dislike extreme heat... theres a whole seperate discussion to start on, one which I'm sure will be started at some point during the summer.

[Jack Wales]

The Arctic melt is later than last year, and the ice is but one year old. The cold SSTs from the St Lawrence and Baffin meltwaters are beginning to pool off the northeast coast of N America, and are likely again to be carried to mid-Atlantic by the North Atlantic Current. Like last year it could stabilise the high pressure over the central north Atlantic, and we will then experience wet cool conditions throughout June, July and August. If the Arctic Sea Ice melts to the extent of 2007, the Autumn is likely to continue cool and wet, and the likelihood of a real winter becomes a possibility for the UK.

If the cold anomalies are kept to the West Atlantic it should assist height rises in W Europe. As for your winter forecast, there are tentative indicators that lower ice cover in summer contributes to milder winters in W Europe. If you combine that with the W'ly QBO, it's already looking like a record mild one for me. Anyway I'm not going to say anymore about winter or I risk getting my head bitten off too! :o

As for summer, my predictions are a bit more optimistic than yours, with a drier but not necessarily hot first half.

Edited May 14, 2008 by Jack Wales

[William of Walworth]

The Arctic melt is later than last year, and the ice is but one year old. The cold SSTs from the St Lawrence and Baffin meltwaters are beginning to pool off the northeast coast of N America, and are likely again to be carried to mid-Atlantic by the North Atlantic Current. Like last year it could stabilise the high pressure over the central north Atlantic, and we will then experience wet cool conditions throughout June, July and August. If the Arctic Sea Ice melts to the extent of 2007, the Autumn is likely to continue cool and wet, and the likelihood of a real winter becomes a possibility for the UK.

Blimey!!! I hope to heaven that you are what you meteorologists call 'an outlier'!!

Jack is already dissenting .. is this doomy and gloomy scenario from Chris supported by others??

Edited May 15, 2008 by William of Walworth

[johnholmes]

nope

[Gavin P]

Pure guess from me is a reasonable June and then getting progressively worse and worse with a horrible, cold, wet and dull Augist!

[SP1986]

I dont think the summer will be a total cool washout like some are suggesting. I can understand why such is being said, partly because the weather will really slip downhill in the next few weeks with cold weather so its a psychological way of protecting oneself.

I think that it will improve into June and July with perhaps a wet and cold August for example (in other words, a mixed bag). The climate with climate change is due to become more unstable, perhaps it is, but I dont forsee it being cold all year round.

Summer should feel pleasant at times and cold at times, your average summer really.

[William of Walworth]

Trying to cheer up with your positive June and July talk Stephen, but as for those words 'few weeks' in the first para ... whatever happened to the very recent talk on the other thread of the downturn this weekend being a shortlived blip?

Prospects seem all over the place ...

I suppose after last year's excuse for a summer, some of us want to have our cake and eat it this time, maybe we feel that we're owed** predominantly nice and warm conditions this summer.

**Not a meteorological concept!

[SP1986]

Trying to cheer up with your positive June and July talk Stephen, but as for those words 'few weeks' in the first para ... whatever happened to the very recent talk on the other thread of the downturn this weekend being a shortlived blip?

Prospects seem all over the place ...

I suppose after last year's excuse for a summer, some of us want to have our cake and eat it this time, maybe we feel that we're owed** predominantly nice and warm conditions this summer.

**Not a meteorological concept!

Well I always personally maintained that it would be a longer lived spell of colder weather than some were suggesting. I couldn't/can't actually see where any warmth was going to come from within the next 2 weeks , so largely that was/is probably an optimistic outlook by those involved.

We are owed a nice warm summer Mind you it could be more validly argued that were really owed a freezing cold winter too!

[damianslaw]

Well I always personally maintained that it would be a longer lived spell of colder weather than some were suggesting. I couldn't/can't actually see where any warmth was going to come from within the next 2 weeks , so largely that was/is probably an optimistic outlook by those involved.

We are owed a nice warm summer B) Mind you it could be more validly argued that were really owed a freezing cold winter too!

Not sure about your comment i.e. being owed a nice warm summer is this purely on the back of last year? Previous summers have been fantastic 2003, 2005 and 2006 so I don't think we should be saying the word owed, yes definately though in context of winter we are owed a cold one this year.

[Rollo]

Not sure about your comment i.e. being owed a nice warm summer is this purely on the back of last year? Previous summers have been fantastic 2003, 2005 and 2006 so I don't think we should be saying the word owed, yes definately though in context of winter we are owed a cold one this year.

In reality we are owed neither a cold winter nor a warm summer,mother nature will decide in her own good time. There is however not much doubt as to what most of us want!

[SP1986]

Wheres the sense of humour?! My owed a good summer was merely humorous and not intended to be literal B)

[MP-R]

Wheres the sense of humour?! My owed a good summer was merely humorous and not intended to be literal

Well I share the sense of humour. It has to be said though, there aren't many times when 15C is reached a maximum in both winter and summer here. 15C was the max. on Friday 20th July and Saturday 10th February. That's pretty abismal really. A nice warm summer with sunshine and some nice thunderstorms every now and again followed by a warm start to autumn would be nice. Though I'd agree this winter really needs to be a good one as I'm forgetting what snow looks like down here in snowless Somerset!

Edited May 16, 2008 by Michael Prys-Roberts

[William of Walworth]

'Owed' is not meteorological, never claimed it was!!

I agree a nice cold winter would be great too ...

Some (not just me!) are suggesting in the Model Output thread that a return to warmth and maybe even predominantly High Pressure, might be on the cards for later this month ... last week of May perhaps.

Edited May 16, 2008 by William of Walworth