Summer Discussion!

[Devon-Nelly]

Yes summer 2005 was very thundery in this neck of the woods.

June 24th in particular, 6 thunderstorms in one day, one of them dumped an just over an inch of rain in 30 mins, had just over two inches in total that day. Never seen rain like it since absolutly amazing day, and we still managed 24c despite it was overcast and misty all day.

Then we had two more quite nasty storms on the 28th which gave flash flooding during the rush hour, finished my last GCSE exam couple of hours before it kicked off, but i've never seen such a warm and thundery spell ever in the uk 8 storms in 4 days and temps between the low and high 20's.

Edited April 21, 2008 by Devon-Nelly

[William of Walworth]

I know the BBC 4 week forecast is not thought much of round these parts, and quite rightly not.

On today's update they're suggesting predominantly unsettled/showery weather well into May. How reliable is this as an outline guide, will they end up with eg on their faces or do people here think their edicts are broadly right?

I know it's a bit of a 'too early to say scenario' so far, and that changes can come about quite quickly ...

Me I'm wanting a nice END of May, mainly. As a buildup to scorching weather... later B)

Cheers.

Edited April 21, 2008 by William of Walworth

[SP1986]

I know the BBC 4 week forecast is not thought much of round these parts, and quite rightly not.

On today's update they're suggesting predominantly unsettled/showery weather well into May. How reliable is this as an outline guide, will they end up with eg on their faces or do people here think their edicts are broadly right?

I know it's a bit of a 'too early to say scenario' so far, and that changes can come about quite quickly ...

Me I'm wanting a nice END of May, mainly. As a buildup to scorching weather... later

Cheers.

You could argue it serves no purpose being an LRF but if I was going to take a punt it would be pretty what they have said there, remaining unsettled and cool.

[MP-R]

Well one thing is for sure, even if it is rubbish weather up until the end of May, when the lovely sunny weather does arrive, it will be even more welcome and feel so much better after weeks of drab! I will say though that May 2006 would be considered a nasty month weatherwise but in amongst the dull days of continuous heavy rain, there were some good convective days, the 10th, 11th, 21st and 28th stand out in my records.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I enjoyed May 2006 in Leeds- it wasn't too bad sunshine wise, there was some good warm sunny weather in the first half, and three days of thunder, including a particularly big storm on the 12th. It was one of those months with a pronounced north-south split- dull in the south but sunny in the north- so it got a reputation for being dull because most people live in the south and the media are strongly South East-biased.

[William of Walworth]

Yes, May 2006 wasn't too bad, and June was even better that year.

[Rollo]

I notice TWS mentions spending May 2006 in Leeds-in another era 1959 to be precise I spent most of the summer there and it was a real corker,some more of that this year would,I feel, be more than popular but somehow I have my doubts.

[William of Walworth]

JACKONE's new Glastonbury forecast (last weekend of June -- see separate thread) is at this stage indicating positivity for that period .... obviously one's forecast can go down as well as up, but festivalgoers and non festivalgoers alike may be cautiously pleased that last year's washout June just might be avoided this time. OK prospects can change but! :lol:

Edited April 28, 2008 by William of Walworth

[Thundery wintry showers]

Summer 1959 was one of the famous hot summers- statistically not as remarkable as those of 1976, 1989 and 1995, but it was also an unusually long summer with September and October both widely ranking among the sunniest on record, and September also ranking among the driest.

[damianslaw]

Would be great to have a summer like 1995 again, though for many it was worringly dry so perhaps it would be unwise to hope for such a summer again. In this respect something akin to 2005 would suit me fine, appreciably warm but not too humid like July 2006 and more particularly 2003 - don't want a 2003 summer really found that uncomfortable.

I think we are likely to see the best summer weather early on in the season with July and August being of the wet variety, though not a washout like last year. Also another above average summer CET warmer than last year but not as warm as 2003, 2005 or 2006 - perhaps comparable to 2004.

[Scorcher]

I wouldn't actually mind a repeat of August 2004, although ideally I would like something less wet and with more settled spells. I really liked how consistently warm it was throughout the month, although the last week or so was around average temperature wise. There were hardly any days in August 2004 with below average temperatures. It was also warm by night which I always enjoy. Very interesting month I thought.

[frostypaw]

So fellas how is the optimism now?

It seems hard to believe at this point that summer will be a wash-out again, though it seems to still have scope for blandness and some rain. I've seen very little support in the GFS at least for any of last year's nonsense and high pressure mostly dominates.

But my very amateur view is limited - what do you see?

[Jack Wales]

The Atlantic SST's currently point to a -ve NAO and possibly a -ve AO which would not be ideal, however La Nina is now in an advanced stage and looks like dissipating into neutral values soon, if not already. GP has already pointed out that this along with the MJO etc indicates a W European ridge for early summer but it will be interesting to see how this plays out against the Atlantic sst's.

[J07]

So fellas how is the optimism now?

It seems hard to believe at this point that summer will be a wash-out again, though it seems to still have scope for blandness and some rain. I've seen very little support in the GFS at least for any of last year's nonsense and high pressure mostly dominates.

But my very amateur view is limited - what do you see?

How can the GFS give any evidence either way when it doesn't even make it into summer at the moment?

[bigboblee]

At this stage yes we will see some rather wet days but nowhere near as bad as last year thank god. Temps will be higher though

[frostypaw]

The Atlantic SST's currently point to a -ve NAO and possibly a -ve AO which would not be ideal, however La Nina is now in an advanced stage and looks like dissipating into neutral values soon, if not already. GP has already pointed out that this along with the MJO etc indicates a W European ridge for early summer but it will be interesting to see how this plays out against the Atlantic sst's.

this report from down under says it has already dissipated and isn't threatening to swing back into El Nino mode - which is good or so i get the impression

[johnholmes]

not immediately NOAA suggest that may happen over a 2-3 time span from now

[sundog]

I think it will turn out to be a very average summer. The good weather we have got recently i dont trust it at all. I didnt trust the great weather we had in april last year either as i had a feeling that things would change later on and i have the same feeling now. That coupled with what Mr Data has said in the past about summers ending in "8" just makes me think we will get an average summer at best.

[Vesuvius]

I think it will turn out to be a very average summer. The good weather we have got recently i dont trust it at all. I didnt trust the great weather we had in april last year either as i had a feeling that things would change later on and i have the same feeling now. That coupled with what Mr Data has said in the past about summers ending in "8" just makes me think we will get an average summer at best.

Hope you are wrong mate. Baby Vesuvius has arrived so no holidays for me this year. I'm staying at home hoping for nice weather.

Best, V

[ribster]

this report from down under says it has already dissipated and isn't threatening to swing back into El Nino mode - which is good or so i get the impression

Blimey, some rather wild predictions going on here, based on not very much at all. GP always words his posts very carefully, he gives a suggestion of what events might signal, not what is definitely going to happen. Theres a long long way to go yet. 5 days isn't even nailed, never mind 60!

[damianslaw]

I'm quite surprised at the low number of responses to this thread, particularly as we are now only 3 weeks away from the official start of the 3 summer months.

I'd be interested to see in the next 2-3 weeks peoples call on the summer i.e. summer forecasts. I may start a separate thread altogether titled summer forecasts, if nobody does this first. I will only start it when I have my own thoughts firmly mounted in my head. However, I still think June will deliver the best weather of the summer i.e. driest and sunniest weather though not necessarily the warmest.

[Devon-Nelly]

So how will the current conditions in regards to la nina going to neutral conditions effect our summer patterns?

Im sure i heard somewhere it takes 30 days for the weather to change to the pattern assoicated with the current la nina or el nino ect.

I dont know why but my instincts are telling me that June is going to be a sunny, dry and quite warm month especailly later on, but im still sticking with an average/warmish summer similar to 2005.

Edited May 11, 2008 by Devon-Nelly

[frostypaw]

I think it's partially because after last year all bets are off!

IIRC by this time last year it was already clear something was wrong with the jetstream's direction and we were starting to watch lows head straight at us with very little input from the continent. as 'summer' continued increasing heat led to more blocking and slow tracking lows and the heavy rains

This year it looks more normal, the patterns across the atlantic on the global charts are more typical of the type of weather pattern i was brought up to believe in with the jetstream's effect fairly visible and the lows being disrupted and redirected. that said there does appear to be a wettish patch coming - the so called european monsoon i guess - that looks like it'll pass early next month leaving us with a dryish july. august is more iffy and i wouldn't hazard i guess yet.

Or at least that's my not-quite-hopecast i'm amateur and not very scientific so please don't shoot me down in flames & be gentle. is based on watching the global short-range predictions and the daily CFS output on meteociel for the next few months and not trying for anything but 'nicer or nastier' level predictions.

[William of Walworth]

I think it's partially because after last year all bets are off!

IIRC by this time last year it was already clear something was wrong with the jetstream's direction and we were starting to watch lows head straight at us with very little input from the continent. as 'summer' continued increasing heat led to more blocking and slow tracking lows and the heavy rains

This year it looks more normal, the patterns across the atlantic on the global charts are more typical of the type of weather pattern i was brought up to believe in with the jetstream's effect fairly visible and the lows being disrupted and redirected. that said there does appear to be a wettish patch coming - the so called european monsoon i guess - that looks like it'll pass early next month leaving us with a dryish july. august is more iffy and i wouldn't hazard i guess yet.

Or at least that's my not-quite-hopecast i'm amateur and not very scientific so please don't shoot me down in flames & be gentle. is based on watching the global short-range predictions and the daily CFS output on meteociel for the next few months and not trying for anything but 'nicer or nastier' level predictions.

How about late June?

I'm sure some rain will come, but exactly when? is the issue .....

[William of Walworth]

Is it Ok to mention the Weather on line late spring/early summer forecast here?

Don't know how much credibility people here set by that site. Don't know how they devise their predicitons either.

They're pessimistic for part of late May and for part of early to mid June. Correct or not correct? You decide.