Summer Discussion!

[TonyH]

A nice start to summer here. Although yesterday was mostly cloudy, it was warm and rather humid.

There has been no measurable rain these past 4 days now, as we've dodged the showers.

This morning was cloudy, but this has burnt off leaving a warm and sultry afternoon, up above 21c.

[MP-R]

Another very humid day, feeling almost tropical outside. What was a beautiful morning up until 1pm is now cloudy with pale white skies and the sun shining weakly through it.

[J07]

Another very humid day, feeling almost tropical outside. What was a beautiful morning up until 1pm is now cloudy with pale white skies and the sun shining weakly through it.

:lol:

You need to visit the tropics more often old chap! I'd be surprised it Bristol's highest ever dewpoint would be the same as the average value found in the tropics in the wet season.

[richarddx7]

You are basing the above on not much real evidence, if your post on the Model Output thread is any guide. And NOBODY knows what will happen in 2009.

We've had some pretty rotten weather in recent days (with some warm sunshine inbetween though!) but that doesn't mean that unsettledness is bound to persist.

I'm all for realism, and I do respect science-based real forecasts however bad, but the doom and gloom tendancy by some here, to assume that the weather will continue indefinitely as badly as it might be at a given current moment, is annoying. We're only on the official second day of official summer for heavens sake!

LOL I was not being serious... jeez. My point is NOBODY KNOWS. I was being ironic if you didn't notice.

[William of Walworth]

LOL I was not being serious... jeez. My point is NOBODY KNOWS. I was being ironic if you didn't notice.

I didn't really, so apols for that, but yesterday was a bad weather day like today, and a few others,

not just you, were also being pessimistic (more so than today) so that affected my grumpiness level ....

There is a serious point somewhere in there though -- it's profoundly annoying (generally) for people to write off the month, or eevn the whole summer, and for them to adopt a seriously pessimistic tone longer term, on the back of current conditions, however down those are. Some are basing their pessimism on their particular interpretation of models/forecasts, others just seem a little too much generally downbeat, and more so than upcoming trends justify right now IMO..

Edited June 3, 2008 by William of Walworth

[frostypaw]

for you it is.

for others they'd love to see loads of weather-action with lows and storms riding across us - or they might just feel that pessimistic and want to vent

The trends will change by tomorrow - I've only seen STABLE type patterns of high pressure a couple of times in the LRFs so it's best to watch and see what happens and not to get too attached to any particular report-of-the-moment at least until right near the date.

[TonyH]

Cold last night.

Min: 3.1c possible ground frost- but I did nt put a sensor on the lawn as the forecast lows were something like 8c

[Thundery wintry showers]

As it happens, I'm one of those rarities who isn't overly enthusiastic about prolonged settled spells. Settled, by definition, means not changeable, and I generally get bored if the weather stays dry and sunny and unchanging for significantly over a week. I get bored a lot more quickly than that if it ends up dry and cloudy for weeks on end (which quite often happens in stable easterly setups on the north-east coast.)

The above isn't a hard and fast rule- I didn't get bored about lack of variety during 8-20 February this year, as there was temperature variation and varying amounts of haze and stunning sunsets, and I didn't get bored during the exceptional July of 2006 as the hot sunshine was punctuated by occasional showers/thunderstorms (that month may have been too hot down south, but up in north-east England it was more like having a particularly good continental summer!).

In summery, I like my high pressure, dry/sunny setups as much as the next member of N-W, but I prefer them to be interspersed with the odd southerly plume and the odd spell of cyclonic sunshine-and-showers weather like we had in the second week of April this year (though not the July 1988 style Atlantic train). If I had to quote a summer I'd most want to see a repeat of, it wouldn't be 1976, but I'd be tempted to opt for the preceding summer- 1975 had pretty much everything.

So yes, there are some dissenting voices out there with regards the general desire to see another 1976.

As for 2008 it remains up in the air. I've never seen so much disagreement from ECM and GFS. ECM traditionally has the better track record, but strangely over recent months it's often erred too much on the progressive side. But we are long overdue a summer ending in "8" that isn't generally cold, dull and wet.

[William of Walworth]

And -- my original point -- there ARE one or two posters here who seem overpessimistic beyond -- in some cases -- what the forecasts/models justify or even tell us at all, IMO.

As it happens, I'm one of those rarities who isn't overly enthusiastic about prolonged settled spells. Settled, by definition, means not changeable, and I generally get bored if the weather stays dry and sunny and unchanging for significantly over a week. I get bored a lot more quickly than that if it ends up dry and cloudy for weeks on end (which quite often happens in stable easterly setups on the north-east coast.)

The above isn't a hard and fast rule- I didn't get bored about lack of variety during 8-20 February this year, as there was temperature variation and varying amounts of haze and stunning sunsets, and I didn't get bored during the exceptional July of 2006 as the hot sunshine was punctuated by occasional showers/thunderstorms (that month may have been too hot down south, but up in north-east England it was more like having a particularly good continental summer!).

In summery, I like my high pressure, dry/sunny setups as much as the next member of N-W, but I prefer them to be interspersed with the odd southerly plume and the odd spell of cyclonic sunshine-and-showers weather like we had in the second week of April this year (though not the July 1988 style Atlantic train). If I had to quote a summer I'd most want to see a repeat of, it wouldn't be 1976, but I'd be tempted to opt for the preceding summer- 1975 had pretty much everything.

So yes, there are some dissenting voices out there with regards the general desire to see another 1976.

As for 2008 it remains up in the air. I've never seen so much disagreement from ECM and GFS. ECM traditionally has the better track record, but strangely over recent months it's often erred too much on the progressive side. But we are long overdue a summer ending in "8" that isn't generally cold, dull and wet.

Fair dos. Nowt wrong with variety in the summer. All in the timing though!

Last year we had for most of the early summer a LACK of (much) variety -- constant series of jet driven Atlantic sytems and miserable, frequently rainy conditions.

I'm happy without a 1976 (we're not going to get it anyway). 2003 would do!

Edited June 4, 2008 by Paul

[Thundery wintry showers]

Last year we had for most of the early summer a LACK of (much) variety -- constant series of jet driven Atlantic sytems and miserable, frequently rainy conditions.

A good point- "unsettled" weather regimes can also be pretty boring and, ironically, result in unchanging weather, depending on what type it is. In Norwich, the fortnight just gone has been as good an example as any- relentlessly dull and damp, with varying degrees of rain!

[J07]

I'm happy without a 1976 (we're not going to get it anyway). 2003 would do!

That hot and humid spell in August 2003 was a little bit excessive for my tastes!

[Eugene]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/rep...;MENU=WeekAhead

The dangers of basing your forecast on GFS runs, big change since that forecast was written.

[William of Walworth]

That hot and humid spell in August 2003 was a little bit excessive for my tastes!

Yeah, that was a bit ultra, but I'd take that over late June 2007! Hopefully for late June 2008, it's not humid in the countryuside!

[Thundery wintry showers]

1-10 August 2003 varied from being a lovely warm sunny spell to being a horrendous, energy-sapping heatwave, depending on where you were and your tolerance for heat. For most of northern Britain temperatures stayed mainly between 25 and 30C, but in the urban areas of the south it must have been pretty stifling at times with temperatures into the mid to high 30s. The overnight minima were also high, unusually so for such a hot sunny spell.

I was in northern France during that heatwave- the area that suffered most (I don't use that word lightly) with highs of around 40C on 11 consecutive days. I might be alright with something like that as a one-off just to experience it, but a week of it was enough to get my holiday cut short by a couple of days just to escape from the heat! As a consequence I saw the large scale thunderstorms that hit the Tyne & Wear area on the 10th.

Summer 1976 had a similar heatwave from 22 June which persisted into the first week of July. For France and south-east England it wasn't quite as intense as the August 2003 one, but it was more prolonged and, away from the aforementioned areas, generally more extreme.

The other recent extreme months I recall for heat were August 1995 and July 2006. Again, for most in the north those were fantastic months, but for many in the south, particularly urban areas, they were rather too hot. Neither were quite as extreme in France though, I was in France for some of the July 2006 hot spell as well, and the temperatures were mostly around 30-35C. August 1997 is less well remembered, but that month had a lot of hot sticky nights.

[Scorcher]

The other recent extreme months I recall for heat were August 1995 and July 2006. Again, for most in the north those were fantastic months, but for many in the south, particularly urban areas, they were rather too hot. Neither were quite as extreme in France though, I was in France for some of the July 2006 hot spell as well, and the temperatures were mostly around 30-35C. August 1997 is less well remembered, but that month had a lot of hot sticky nights.

I also spent time in Northern France during the July 2006 heatwave and the conditions there were notably more oppressive there than in the UK. It was a lot more humid, with a spectacular thunderstorm marking my arrival followed by a day that actually felt rather cool but still reached about 28C. After that the real heat got going again. The mosquitoes in the north of France during July 2006 were absolutely rampant, I've never been bitten that badly in my life and I spent a year in Florida. Surprising the difference a couple of hundred miles in latitude can make in these heatwaves. The nights were also warmer in France, as in the north of England we nearly always get some relief at night even in the most exceptional heatwaves.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well, I doubt you'd have coped very well in the August 2003 heatwave then- trust me, July 2006 was nothing in France compared to August 2003. And as your account rightly shows, that's saying a lot in itself!

For instance I remember one evening in August 2003 in northern France rejoicing at the fact that it was midnight and the temperature had finally fallen to 27C.

[damianslaw]

Worst aspect of any heatwave are the uncomfortable hot sticky nights that accompany them, particularly if you are in the urban heat island. Luckily I reside up here in Tyne and Wear where you can normally count on one the hand the number of evenings of such type that occur each year. Whereas London seems to suffer from such nights even in modest heatwaves.

Much better when high pressure anchors itself either directly over the country or just north or north west ensuring that humid conditions do not prevail but still getting the high daytime temperatures. Unfortunately most of our recent summers have seen high pressure anchoring themselves in positions to bring in consistent humid conditions. As you can see I am not a heat lover!

[Bottesford]

The warmest night I can remember was in July 2006. Seem to remember recording 26c at midnight! I was in town pub crawling which required only t-shirt & shorts but was still stiffling! Can't remember a night like it before or since. I really enjoy hot nights - the atmosphere of them is just magical in some way. You generally expect night to be cold & forbidding so its so different when its warm & tender. British houses don't suit hot nights at all though with all the curtains, carpets & insulation.

I also prefer to have lower daytime maxes and warmer nights - eg 26c max, 18c min rather than the extreme hot days (>30c) but with chilly nights (14c<). Mostly since I do most 'fun' stuff in the evenings so whats the point of a roasting day spent in an office only for it to be too chilly to sit out with a beer at night?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I also spent time in Northern France during the July 2006 heatwave and the conditions there were notably more oppressive there than in the UK.

Just realised that my earlier post wasn't worded very well. It should have said "July 2006 wasn't as extreme in France as August 2003", but could easily be misread as "it wasn't as extreme as in the UK" which is clearly inaccurate, apologies for that. On the other hand, August 1995's heat did appear to be especially concentrated over the British Isles.

Re. Bottesford's post, it might just be a quirk of having lived on the north-east coast for many years, but in my experience warm evenings aren't always perfectly correlated with warm nights. On the contrary, if it's clear and sunny, the warmth often hangs around during the evening, then tapers off shortly after sunset, while if it's muggy then the temperature may fall quite a bit in the evening but then stay at a similar level for the rest of the night. But I suppose if you're out well after midnight then you'd start to feel the chill in a clear airmass!

I wonder which July 2006 night it could've been, as I recall that the average mimima for July 2006 were much less exceptional as a whole than the maxima. Maybe the southerly surge around the 20th?

[TonyH]

Its going to be a cold one tonight!

Down to 8c already, so must get that sensor on the lawn! Could get close to zero if it stays clear and calm.

[PersianPaladin]

Seems these days we get crap winters and summers.

Makes you wonder why you bother getting up sometimes.

[mushymanrob]

. I really enjoy hot nights - the atmosphere of them is just magical in some way.

i couldnt agree more mate.... however theres no sign of anything like that in the charts atm, in fact they are totally opposite

what an abysmal run the 00z is, plus the ecm agrees, a huge high to our west with the azh and greenland high linking and staying put. too early to write summer off?.... well last summer i saw temps over 25c only 3 times! which was a write off IF you are looking for settled warm sunny weather. my only fear at this early stage is that the pattern for the next few months is being set... and like last year we might have to wait until autumn (september) to get any 'summery' weather. a return to settled, anticyclonic weather has been predicted to quickly follow on since that slow moving occlusion brought much needed rain slowly northward two weeks ago... that, even within a reliable timeframe has not happened... im NOT writing off summer, however my instinct is not looking very favourable for the forseeable future.

[William of Walworth]

Is there ANY chance of that High moving in nearer? Not so much the end of this week (which looks unlikely) or even next week, but sometime around the 20th June?

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

UKMO looks like it's just reverting to a week or so ago, with high pressure to the north and LP close to the UK with cold Arctic/Continental air over the country (again). Strange patterns occuring, nothing like previous summers when the Azore/continental high was prevelant. But its early days yet!

[Eugene]

Unbelievable but a pretty widespread inland ground frost is possible later this week :o

Even down in the midlands, the airmass is definately cold enough, it all depends if it remains cloudy or not at night even if it does remain cloudy cool dewpoints will make it feel cool.