Summer Discussion!

[Weather-history]

Can this be the summer that breaks this run?

Summers ending in "8"

1888 CET: 13.7 Rain: 317mm

1898 CET: 15.1 Rain: 166mm

1908 CET: 14.9 Rain: 216mm

1918 CET: 14.9 Rain: 204mm

1928 CET: 14.8 Rain: 253mm

1938 CET: 15.3 Rain: 226mm

1948 CET: 14.8 Rain: 259mm

1958 CET: 15.3 Rain: 310mm

1968 CET: 15.1 Rain: 274mm

1978 CET: 14.5 Rain: 210mm

1988 CET: 14.8 Rain: 268mm

1998 CET: 15.2 Rain: 230mm

2008 ?

CET average: 14.9 Rainfall: 244mm

Is Summer 2008 going to break this odd run or is it going to continue?

The CET average and rainfall averages for summers ending in other numbers for that period of 1880-2007

0 CET average: 15.3 Rainfall: 235.5mm

1 CET average: 15.4 Rainfall: 218.4mm

2 CET average: 14.9 Rainfall: 238mm

3 CET average: 15.6 Rainfall: 200.5mm

4 CET average: 15.4 Rainfall: 218.2mm

5 CET average: 15.7 Rainfall: 194.7mm

6 CET average: 15.5 Rainfall: 211.1mm

7 CET average: 15.4 Rainfall: 213.8mm

8 CET average: 14.9 Rainfall: 244mm

9 CET average: 15.6 Rainfall: 186.9mm

The best summers in that period tended to end in "3" "5" and "9" whilst the poorest tended to end in "2" and "8"

Another interesting fact about summers ending "8" is that there is only one July in that period (1888-1998) actually got above a CET of 16.0 (1928 with 16.1)

Using England and Wales sunshine figures

The sunshine average for summers ending in "5": 591.3hrs

Sunshine average for summers ending in "8": 472.3hrs that compares to summers ending in "2" with an average of 513.4hrs

Taking this into account then the summers ending in "8" have been the poorest overall

Manchester Summer Index average

For summers ending in "8": 193

For summers ending in "5": 233

I notice Philip Eden has picked this up in an article in the Telegraph recently.

[frostypaw]

cool congratulations.

still bad mr.data with your numerological witchcraft. it can't be so i tell thee!

[William of Walworth]

So.

'June Monsoon'

and

June (at least parts of it) can't avoid a Southerly tracking Jet with an Atlantic driven chain of Low Pressures queuing up to soak us.

Run of bad luck based myths, or increasingly inevitable realities?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I dunno- Junes 2003 (persistent blocking to the east) and 2006 (blocked first half then northerly tracking jet) hardly fell into that category!

[William of Walworth]

I dunno- Junes 2003 (persistent blocking to the east) and 2006 (blocked first half then northerly tracking jet) hardly fell into that category!

I know, I remember those years with fondness !!

I'm a 'June Monsoon' sceptic, myself. But all this Monsoon chat tends to come out when we get a 2007 style June. We'll probably get it this week when Wednesday's and Thursday's likely deluges -- especially in the North by the look of it -- come along.

[J07]

I know, I remember those years with fondness !!

I'm a 'June Monsoon' sceptic, myself. But all this Monsoon chat tends to come out when we get a 2007 style June. We'll probably get it this week when Wednesday's and Thursday's likely deluges -- especially in the North by the look of it -- come along.

I don't recall June 2003, but do remember June 2006, for me it was fantastic, even better than July 2006* (in the southwest I found that month a touch breezy). My selective memory doesn't recall a bad June in my life. It always seemed that the first half of the month was excellent and it would fall apart in the second week of Wimbledon. Perhaps that is the June monsoon. However, in my opinion, using the term "monsoon" even as a half-joke kind of dilutes the impact of the deluge of a genuine monsoonal rain that other parts of the world get.

But, I guess it's a similar situation to the 1987 "Hurricane". The weather in the UK does not tend to extremes....but the press would like to make it seem that it does. Hence earthquakes (barely a tremor), hurricanes (vigorous mid latitude depression), monsoons (standard depressions in a westerly track) and goodness knows what else!

* Please note, no scientific basis for this, just what I remember!

[Stargazer]

My selective memory seems to remember a run of rather poor Junes in the 90's, with a general improvement since then (up to 2006, anyway). And anyone wondering when we last had unusually cold nights in June might remember 2005 when there was an air frost as far south as Oxfordshire, with Benson recording -0.3 deg C.

[Tucco]

My selective memory seems to remember a run of rather poor Junes in the 90's, with a general improvement since then (up to 2006, anyway). And anyone wondering when we last had unusually cold nights in June might remember 2005 when there was an air frost as far south as Oxfordshire, with Benson recording -0.3 deg C.

7th June min at Benson was all time low for June for that site. 0.0C was also recorded on the 13th. Month overall was above average.

http://www.tutiempo.net/clima/Benson/06-2005/36580.htm

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2005/june.html

Mark

Teesdale,Co durham

[frostypaw]

I don't recall June 2003, but do remember June 2006, for me it was fantastic, even better than July 2006* (in the southwest I found that month a touch breezy). My selective memory doesn't recall a bad June in my life. It always seemed that the first half of the month was excellent and it would fall apart in the second week of Wimbledon. Perhaps that is the June monsoon. However, in my opinion, using the term "monsoon" even as a half-joke kind of dilutes the impact of the deluge of a genuine monsoonal rain that other parts of the world get.

But, I guess it's a similar situation to the 1987 "Hurricane". The weather in the UK does not tend to extremes....but the press would like to make it seem that it does. Hence earthquakes (barely a tremor), hurricanes (vigorous mid latitude depression), monsoons (standard depressions in a westerly track) and goodness knows what else!

* Please note, no scientific basis for this, just what I remember!

You're far too right sadly, and it's a game we all play to a degree. We like playing up the weather, it's a british past-time waaaaaaay beyond these boards.

The thing is for the majority of the population there's little fixed that they do outdoors. 3 sunny weekends and it's a great weather month for them. I remember 2006 falling somewhat into that category - it was quite showery but they were "well timed" as such and it was on the whole a great summer. 2007 had a whole load of dry patches, but they rarely co-incided with weekends.

Wimbledon however the world and all of the UK watches - suddenly we're painfully aware of the UK weather's inability to stay steady. Hence public perception of "It always rains at Wimbledon" is a rather selective-memory generated version of "it always rains at some point during a fortnight"

Might seem obvious to those who pay attention to the weather all the time but most don't and come the end of june people's attention and interest is on it 24/14 rather than just for the journeys to and from work and the weekend - Ta Da it's a "Monsoon"

Makes for FAR better headlines and chat than "now that i care about the weather there's probably going to be rain in these weeks and i don't like it"

At festivals you always hear people whinge about how it's always either wet and horrid or too sunny and hot - only the two extremes. I think most people just don't realise that a full day's weather is 16 odd hours of possible sun, and that rain isn't all in 2 minute showers. It just normally is hours and hours of one or the other, occasionally showers and it's ALWAYS extreme. It's just the lack of context and exposure, be it how much weather there is in one day or how much rain there is a week/fortnight.

Long ramble sorry, been thinking about the weather a lot. Today I have seen SPECTACULAR ground mist (there is no sight so beautiful as fields of different grasses flowering in heavy mist in the morning sun - layers on layers of arching stems and different colours) then visible dots of water/mist moving upwards everywhere for a good half hour, followed by solid winter like cloud and a cold snap, a band of light rain and then enough constant blazing sun and heat to have me wanting to be topless and i've caught the sun nicely. All by 3pm and there was still six and a half hours more keeeeeeerrrrrrrrazy weather to come. Kinda dull out now tho.

Edited June 16, 2008 by frostypaw

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've been guilty of calling it the "June monsoon" on occasion myself, though only because that's what some others call it. Perhaps the phrase quoted in Philip Eden's Weatherwise, the "June Return of the Westerlies", would be more accurate. In most Junes there is an increase in the strength of the Atlantic regime during the latter part of the month, but in practice the results tend to be fairly "normal" rather than excessively wet.

Indeed, depending on the specifics of the month's synoptics, the change to a more Atlantic-driven regime doesn't always cause it to become cooler, duller and wetter, sometimes the opposite can happen- take June 2005 for instance, with a blocked, rather cool cloudy first half, and then while the second half was more "westerly", frequent southerly plumes and transitionary highs brought much warmer, sunnier weather to many.

[damianslaw]

On a personal note, I'm hoping the last week of July brings widespread sunny dry and warm weather, nothing too hot, just good conditions for when I go to north Scotland for some walking. In this sense I'd be quite happy for northern blocking to continue for a while longer. Yes it will never bring heatwave conditions but it often meanS good weather for the far north who traditionally suffer consistently British weathers worst vagaries.

[damianslaw]

All I ask for the rest of the summer is a week of fair sunny warm weather i.e. no rain or wind to spoil things and a handful of decent weekends. If this co-incided with the last week of July the better as I am off to North Scotland then, weekends like this one remind me just how awful our summer weather can be apart from better temperatures, conditions can be on a par with the depths of winter.

[Rollo]

Being even older than John Holmes my memory goes back to several summers of the current ilk, not all of them stay in the current mood and to the doom-mongers I say there is still time for a turnaround,the only gripe I have is that warm spells from mid-may to early July give us wonderful evenings prior to the nights closing in and warm evenings come late august while being more than welcome are cut short by the shortening days.

[Bottesford]

Being even older than John Holmes my memory goes back to several summers of the current ilk, not all of them stay in the current mood and to the doom-mongers I say there is still time for a turnaround,the only gripe I have is that warm spells from mid-may to early July give us wonderful evenings prior to the nights closing in and warm evenings come late august while being more than welcome are cut short by the shortening days.

Yes I agree hence why mid May to mid July is by far my favourite time of year. I'd happily sacrifice August for a good June & July which is why summer 2006 was so good. Sure we moaned in August but September treated us well to make up for it! Gimme June-Sept 2006 again anyday!

[Hodgheg]

Wheres summer! Yesteday was like Autumn only more green.

[The PIT]

Wheres summer! Yesteday was like Autumn only more green.

Fairly summery now we've just got used to being spoilt for the last ten years or so.

[Godot]

Yeah, this certainly feels like an average, 'normal' summer to me. Maybe I'm just too old.

[Bartlett Low]

After I expressed an interest in the weather in the pub a few hours ago I got pressed into a summer forecast.

One guy had apparenly heard it was all good from now untill September.

I offered up a few guarded opinions, which were lambasted as "bloody hell, talk about sitting on the fence, you sound like the professional weather forecasters!".

In the end I went with a summer close to average, possibly slightly below. No long periods of heat but not as bad as last year.

Any opinions?

[SP1986]

After I expressed an interest in the weather in the pub a few hours ago I got pressed into a summer forecast.

One guy had apparenly heard it was all good from now untill September.

I offered up a few guarded opinions, which were lambasted as "bloody hell, talk about sitting on the fence, you sound like the professional weather forecasters!".

In the end I went with a summer close to average, possibly slightly below. No long periods of heat but not as bad as last year.

Any opinions?

Definitely sitting on the fence, but given the long term pattern that has been occurring, it seems a fairly sensible move right now.

[William of Walworth]

We had a good chunk of summer in the SW, just when 177,000 needed it!

Looking utterly dreadful again for the coming week/weekend, see model output thread, but I have hopes of improvements further into July. John (Holmes) is correctly pessimisitic up to about the 14th in his latest LRF, but after that ..... I'm optimistic of some more pleasantness ('averageness', even, for 'normal' summers) like the week that we've just had. 'Average' summer would include such periods, it's LAST year that stands out as cnsistently bad up to August, and I agree with Bartlett, not as bad as last year = quite good for certain stretches of time!

[Upgrade]

After I expressed an interest in the weather in the pub a few hours ago I got pressed into a summer forecast.

One guy had apparenly heard it was all good from now untill September.

I offered up a few guarded opinions, which were lambasted as "bloody hell, talk about sitting on the fence, you sound like the professional weather forecasters!".

In the end I went with a summer close to average, possibly slightly below. No long periods of heat but not as bad as last year.

Any opinions?

i think that's spot on , actually. people are still nervous after last year - just look at the screaming and wailing at the forecast for rain this weekend and you'll see what i mean .

i think we are having a very average summer particularly in the south east. nothing worse than that.

[Louise]

Oh-oh...just looked outside to see a huge bank of black cloud heading our way...!

[kippure]

With all this cool weather, I wonder how are mountain snowpatchs will do this year, Had a scout around all the web cams and there seems to be alot more snow patchs around this summer then in the past.

[Kiwi]

What chance of a nice North easterly setting in for Gordon Browns summer holidays in Southwold?? :lol:

[Norrance]

With all this cool weather, I wonder how are mountain snowpatchs will do this year, Had a scout around all the web cams and there seems to be alot more snow patchs around this summer then in the past.

There is a topic on this in the snow reports section. They are indeed doing better this year and appear to be lasting approximately one month longer than last year which was not a bad one by recent standards .

There is a good chance that last years 9 survivors will be beaten this year I think.