Global Weather Oscillations

[jethro]

All explained in the reports I think.

Besides it's 95% confident not correlation.

Surely that's just splitting hairs; 95% confident that increased emissions have led to the increased temperatures. Where are those statistics which have caused so much confidence? Genuine question btw, never seen them anywhere.

Fine, we're not, as ever, that far from agreeing. But, if it's 50% AGW how can it all be due to the Moon as David says? It can't be.

Those were my figures, not David's. His theory, he knows soooooo much more than I do about it, if I knew as much, perhaps my confidence in it would be greater too. My figures are based on what I know to date.

Anyone fancy a game of climate bingo (not here, in another thread)? Posting papers which give a figure of some sort, on any subject relating to climate drivers. Eg El Nino causes x degree increase in world temperature. If we get as many drivers or known causes as possible, do a bit of maths, see what figure we come up with?

If anyone fancies the idea go ahead and start without me, this is last post until after weekend - got 10 house guests due to arrive any minute now for a bit of a weekend do, even if I found time to come on here, doubt I'd be in a fit state to say anything but gibberish (I can hear all those what would be the difference comments...).

[osmposm]

........ this is last post until after weekend - got 10 house guests due to arrive any minute now for a bit of a weekend do, even if I found time to come on here, doubt I'd be in a fit state to say anything but gibberish (I can hear all those what would be the difference comments...).

Have a great, if demanding weekend. I've got some feedback for you from your link to the Polyakov stuff (and other things), but it's a bit complicated, so I'll happily take some more time to try and make it intelligible!

Ossie

[Cycles]

Surely that's just splitting hairs; 95% confident that increased emissions have led to the increased temperatures. Where are those statistics which have caused so much confidence? Genuine question btw, never seen them anywhere.

The IPCC has said 95% certainty...and most AGW have said "case closed"..... which means 100%

and if they are incorrect?

The IPCC has said 95% certainty...and most AGW have said "case closed"..... which means 100%

and if they are incorrect?

And here is some good info on the El Nino forecast from others.............

Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions from July 2008

About ENSO outlooksProduct Code: IDCKGLM000

Neutral ENSO Conditions to Continue

Summary

ENSO conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have now been neutral for several months. All sea surface temperature indices are in the neutral range (as of 27 July the 7-day average NINO3 index is +0.6°C, NINO3.4 is +0.2°C and NINO4 is -0.3°C), the SOI is +3 and trade winds are close to normal strength. Ocean temperatures are slightly cooler than normal in the central Pacific and slightly warmer than normal in the east, but there is little potential for conditions to change from neutral during the remainder of 2008. Our ENSO Wrap-up has more details.

The latest forecasts of ENSO from international coupled climate models show that conditions are likely to remain neutral throughout the outlook period. All models surveyed here forecast sea surface temperatures in the central to western Pacific Ocean to warm slightly in the next few months but for ENSO-neutral anomalies to extend right across the basin. Confidence in this outlook is high as there is good consensus amongst the models and winter-spring is a period of relatively high predictability. None of the six models shown here is predicting a return to La Niña conditions or for an El Niño to develop in 2008.

Model Outlooks

The following table summarizes the opinion of National Climate Centre climatologists regarding the outputs from various forecast models. The model set contains six reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models that take into account complex physical ocean processes. NCC's interpretation may not necessarily be the same as the organisations producing the model output. You are therefore encouraged to follow the hyperlinks to the various institutions listed in the table.

See About ENSO outlooks for details on the models and a summary of the terms used.

MODEL /

GROUP Forecast Start Date2-4 MONTHS

(Sep to Nov)5-7 MONTHS

(Dec to Feb 09)POAMA

(run at Bureau of Met) 30 June - 29 July Neutral Neutral System 3

ECMWF 01 July Neutral Neutral # GloSea

UK Met Office 01 July Neutral Not Available CSF

NCEP 19 - 28 July Neutral Neutral CGCMv1

GMAO/NASA July Neutral Neutral JMA-CGCM02

Japan Met. Agency May Neutral Neutral #

[Chris Knight]

ENSO conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean have now been neutral for several months. All sea surface temperature indices are in the neutral range (as of 27 July the 7-day average NINO3 index is +0.6°C, NINO3.4 is +0.2°C and NINO4 is -0.3°C), the SOI is +3 and trade winds are close to normal strength. Ocean temperatures are slightly cooler than normal in the central Pacific and slightly warmer than normal in the east, but there is little potential for conditions to change from neutral during the remainder of 2008. Our <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso" target="_blank">ENSO Wrap-up has more details.

The latest forecasts of ENSO from international coupled climate models show that conditions are likely to remain neutral throughout the outlook period. All models surveyed here forecast sea surface temperatures in the central to western Pacific Ocean to warm slightly in the next few months but for ENSO-neutral anomalies to extend right across the basin. Confidence in this outlook is high as there is good consensus amongst the models and winter-spring is a period of relatively high predictability. None of the six models shown here is predicting a return to La Niña conditions or for an El Niño to develop in 2008.

By comparison, your prediction for "a moderate to strong El Niño to form in December." is positively bullish, David.

Even if the ENSO upward trend remains strong, it will not be possible to announce an El Niño until January 2009 at the very earliest for the following reasons.

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST.v3) for July should be released by Monday, so the ONI for May-July will be available thereafter. Oceanic Niño Index, (ONI) is defined as [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)]

April-June was still La Niña at -0.5.

The greatest April-June to May-July increase on the ONI index since 1950 was from 0.8 to 1.3, a 0.5 degree increase, and that occurred in the early stages when the 1997-1998 great El Niño event was well underway.

If a 0.5 ONI index increase could be sustained over the next two months, i.e. May-July = 0.0 June-August = 0.5, and continued above 0.5 throughout the rest of 2008, because the definition of an El Niño event requires five consecutive three month mean ONIs over 0.5, El Niño conditions could not be announced until the first week of January 2009.

Should the event be as strong as you infer it will be, 2009 looks likely to be another very warm year on the global thermometers, followed presumably by some very much cooler conditions over the subsequent seasons.

Can the PFM predict La Niña events also?

[Cycles]

Even if the ENSO upward trend remains strong, it will not be possible to announce an El Niño until January 2009 at the very earliest.

Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST.v3) for July should be released by Monday, so the ONI for May-July will be available thereafter. Oceanic Niño Index, (ONI) is defined as [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)]

April-June was still La Niña at -0.5.

The greatest April-June to May-July increase on the ONI index since 1950 was from 0.8 to 1.3, a 0.5 degree increase, and that occurred in the early stages when the 1997-1998 great El Niño event was well underway.

If a 0.5 ONI index increase could be sustained over the next two months, i.e. May-July = 0.0 June-August = 0.5, and continued above 0.5 throughout the rest of 2008, because the definition of an El Niño event requires five consecutive three month mean ONIs over 0.5, El Niño conditions could not be announced until the first week of January 2009.

Should the event be as strong as you infer it will be, 2009 looks likely to be another very warm year on the global thermometers, followed presumably by some very much cooler conditions over the subsequent seasons.

Can the PFM predict La Niña events also?

Chris,

I understand the "definition" of an El Nino is for a five consecutive three month mean over 0.5"...for the event to be announced.

However, an El Nino can be underway before the 5 month mean is achieved. Often an El Nino event is announced well after the event is underway. My forecast is for the beginning of the event...not for after it is already ocurring or has been occuring for a couple months.

Caution requires heeding for ENSO forecasters. Temperatures are rising in the tropical South Pacific central and eastern areas, and this is during their winter....lets see what happens as summer approaches in this area.

[Cycles]

Can the PFM predict La Niña events also?

Chris,

I have stayed focused on the El Nino events and other climate/weather events. However, I would at this point assume the PFM would likely be a very useful forecasting tool for La Nina events as well.

.....I will be on a trip Saturday into late Monday, will briefly answer questions Saturday morning before leaving and Monday evening. Not sure if I will be online Sunday or Monday morning, will try.

[Chris Knight]

Chris,

I understand the "definition" of an El Nino is for a five consecutive three month mean over 0.5"...for the event to be announced.

However, an El Nino can be underway before the 5 month mean is achieved. Often an El Nino event is announced well after the event is underway. My forecast is for the beginning of the event...not for after it is already ocurring or has been occuring for a couple months.

Caution requires heeding for ENSO forecasters. Temperatures are rising in the tropical South Pacific central and eastern areas, and this is during their winter....lets see what happens as summer approaches in this area.

So I guess you are definite that by December, ONI for September-November will exceed 0.5, leading to a definite El Niño event by the end of March, which will reach at least moderate levels?

[Cycles]

So I guess you are definite that by December, ONI for September-November will exceed 0.5, leading to a definite El Niño event by the end of March, which will reach at least moderate levels?

Chris,

That is what I expect, rapid rise in Tropical Central South Pacific Sea Surface temperatures during November and December... El Nino setting in around late December, full effects during the northern hemisphere winter and southern hemisphere summer. At the least, a moderate El Nino.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Chris,

That is what I expect, rapid rise in Tropical Central South Pacific Sea Surface temperatures during November and December... El Nino setting in around late December, full effects during the northern hemisphere winter and southern hemisphere summer. At the least, a moderate El Nino.

David

As mentioned by another poster, with a moderate/strong El Nino can there still be a noticeable drop in Global Temps between 08/09?

BFTP

Edited August 2, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cycles]

David

As mentioned by another poster, with a moderate/strong El Nino can there still be a noticeable drop in Global Temps between 08/09?

BFTP

Blast,

During an El Nino event some areas of the world normally receive colder than average temperatures, and some areas normally above average temperatures. But, it very well could disrupt the overall temperature drop for a brief period.

When I say temperatures falling back to more like during the 1950s to 1980s, it does not mean every year during the upcoming 8 years will be cold, even during the 50s to 80s there were ups and downs with the El Nino.

It will be the droop after about 2023 that will be extremely harsh, more of a moderate drop now.

....Will be leaving on a nice trip to Quebec Province in Canada this morning, back late Monday, will try to get online to check posts Sunday, and if not, will check Monday evening...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Blast,

During an El Nino event some areas of the world normally receive colder than average temperatures, and some areas normally above average temperatures. But, it very well could disrupt the overall temperature drop for a brief period.

When I say temperatures falling back to more like during the 1950s to 1980s, it does not mean every year during the upcoming 8 years will be cold, even during the 50s to 80s there were ups and downs with the El Nino.

It will be the droop after about 2023 that will be extremely harsh, more of a moderate drop now.

....Will be leaving on a nice trip to Quebec Province in Canada this morning, back late Monday, will try to get online to check posts Sunday, and if not, will check Monday evening...

Thanks for that, a strong one would IMO do that and unfortunately for winter lovers that'll put the mockers on Western European winter...particualrly the UK. Indeed I must clarify that I did understand your assertion re the temps being more like 50s to 80s. Also I pretty much support your direction in this as most know and thanks for coming on here to share this with us.

BFTP

[Cycles]

Thanks for that, a strong one would IMO do that and unfortunately for winter lovers that'll put the mockers on Western European winter...particualrly the UK. Indeed I must clarify that I did understand your assertion re the temps being more like 50s to 80s. Also I pretty much support your direction in this as most know and thanks for coming on here to share this with us.

BFTP

BFP

Thank you for your comments. I would like to add that the Arctic has had a cool summer, some believe this will likely slow or halt the melt down there. I have notice that mid to upper Canada temperatures are much cooler this year than prior years...good indication of the jet stream being further north.

[Chris Knight]

David

As mentioned by another poster, with a moderate/strong El Nino can there still be a noticeable drop in Global Temps between 08/09?

BFTP

1991-1992 had a moderate El Niño, overturned by Pinatubo's cooling.

Watch out for increasing volcanic activity, particularly tropical and Northern Hemisphere. We could be overdue a major explosive global cooling event. Not so silly as it may seem if gravitational influences are in a state of flux!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1991-1992 had a moderate El Niño, overturned by Pinatubo's cooling.

Watch out for increasing volcanic activity, particularly tropical and Northern Hemisphere. We could be overdue a major explosive global cooling event. Not so silly as it may seem if gravitational influences are in a state of flux!

Hi Chris

Yes its something I've been monitoring and anticipating. Not silly at all I agree. It seems our winter is dead in the water though.

David for your info Robert felix has picked up on your book/research on Ice Age Now

BFTP

Edited August 3, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Arnost]

Chris,

That is what I expect, rapid rise in Tropical Central South Pacific Sea Surface temperatures during November and December... El Nino setting in around late December, full effects during the northern hemisphere winter and southern hemisphere summer. At the least, a moderate El Nino.

David,

Here in Australia, the state of the ENSO is followed closely as it has significant impact oun our climate. And I think I have a good layman's understanding of the phenomenon - this is how I read the current ENSO state:

200mb zonal winds - currently positive (a cold ENSO signal)

OLR (160W to 160E) - currently positive (a cold ENSO signal)

GLAAM - steadily negative (strongly a cold ENSO signal)

SOI - fluctuating and near zero on both the 30 day and 90 day averages (neutral ENSO)

One of the most consistent ways of reading the potential future state of the ENSO is the sub-surface. To have any chance of an El Nino developing, the sub-surface has to be warm (or at least neutral). And there has been a significant cooling of the sub-surface over the last month.

There is now a cold spot 150m under Nino3.4 that is now more than -2C below climatology. See here:

So at the moment, I would suggest that the chances of an El Nino (i.e. SST anomalies in Nino3 & Nino4 regions greater than +0.5) in the November/December period are next to zero. In fact, I would suggest that there is a better chance of a La Nina than neutral...

Can I ask what would a cooling of the November and December Pacific Tropics do to your theory?

Edited August 3, 2008 by Arnost

[Cycles]

David,

Here in Australia, the state of the ENSO is followed closely as it has significant impact oun our climate. And I think I have a good layman's understanding of the phenomenon - this is how I read the current ENSO state:

200mb zonal winds - currently positive (a cold ENSO signal)

OLR (160W to 160E) - currently positive (a cold ENSO signal)

GLAAM - steadily negative (strongly a cold ENSO signal)

SOI - fluctuating and near zero on both the 30 day and 90 day averages (neutral ENSO)

One of the most consistent ways of reading the potential future state of the ENSO is the sub-surface. To have any chance of an El Nino developing, the sub-surface has to be warm (or at least neutral). And there has been a significant cooling of the sub-surface over the last month.

I would suggest that the chances of an El Nino (i.e. SST anomalies in Nino3 & Nino4 regions greater than +0.5) in the November/December period are next to zero. In fact, I would suggest that there is a better chance of a La Nina than neutral...

Can I ask what would a cooling of the November and December Pacific Tropics do to your theory?

I do not expect a cooling in November and December, the La Nina is history. Most monitor the Nino 3 and Nino 4 Region for cooling or warmng. My research is based on this region, and it has warmed to a neutral and will warm quickly toward December.

Hi Chris

David for your info Robert felix has picked up on your book/research on Ice Age Now

BFTP

BFTP

Been away for 3 days and not up on things yet.

Ice Age Now is???

[Cycles]

I do not expect a cooling in November and December, the La Nina is history. Most monitor the Nino 3 and Nino 4 Region for cooling or warmng. My research is based on this region, and it has warmed to a neutral and will warm quickly toward December.

BFTP

Been away for 3 days and not up on things yet.

Found his web site BFTP, and yes he does have it on there.

[Chris Knight]

Just found this clearly indicting lunar influence (without specifically mentioning it!) on NAO, PDO, via LOD variation (LOD length of day is primarily changing due to the tidal braking of the earth's spin by the moon, secondarily by changes in the earth's equatorial diameter, e.g. changing sea levels, crustal height changes due to rising continental land masses etc.)

A rather more learned treatise by Walter Munk on the sea level rise enigma in the 20th century from Scripps Institute for Oceanography.

And just for fun, how the earth's magnetic field is generated and affected by climate.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Osmposm: yes he is the chap. Goodness knows where he is. I have tried to pm him but with no success.

regards

ACB

He got sick and tired of the merry-go-round nature of these debates. I'm sure many can sympathise.

[jethro]

He got sick and tired of the merry-go-round nature of these debates. I'm sure many can sympathise.

Although often could be found with one foot on the merry-go-round and the other foot on the floor, generating the circular motion.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Yeah, which is why he "got off".

[jethro]

David,

I spent some time looking into climate and magnetic field changes; it seems there is a connection. I thought you may find some correlation between your work and these changes, here are a few links with dates and animated charts showing the changes. I'd be interested in your thoughts.

http://swdcwww.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/igrf/anime/index.html

http://www.natsci.colostate.edu/jurs/example/index.htm

http://sait.oat.ts.astro.it/MSAIt760405/PD...I..76..957D.pdf

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I do not expect a cooling in November and December, the La Nina is history. Most monitor the Nino 3 and Nino 4 Region for cooling or warmng. My research is based on this region, and it has warmed to a neutral and will warm quickly toward December.

BFTP

Been away for 3 days and not up on things yet.

Ice Age Now is???

David

Sorry should have posted the link. Anyway my research into our climate studies by magnetic field influences has churned up the perturbation cycle [solar linked] which we entered in Feb 2007 which is about 36 years in length and is denoted by La Nina/El Nino domination. We have currently entered the La Nina domination and right on cue the El Nino died 'suddenly'. However, looking into the research and predictions [particularly Landscheidt] it was spot on. Does your theory cover this cycle?

BFTP

[laserguy]

He got sick and tired of the merry-go-round nature of these debates. I'm sure many can sympathise.

So whaddya suggest - that these threads be scrapped altogether? Should we all agree to disagree and live happily ever after? Throwing the towel in means you've seen sense and to save face you 'disappear' rather than admit to being wrong all along. However,I don't think this applies to the poster in question - he appears to be absent from nw in its entirety,non just the climate change arena. Despite our ding dongs,I for one would welcome his return,as well as more than a few others who absence is sorely apparent.

[shuggee]

Can we stick to discussing the topic please - if anyone wants to complain about a poster, press !Report - if anyone wants to discuss other matters to do with membership, please contact a member of the Team.