Hurricane Hanna

[Jack Wales]

I did think that Iceberg. This does concerns me a bit as my mother is currently on holiday on the north coast of the Dominican Republic and I can't get hold of her!

I see TD10 has now formed, its a bit of a conveyor belt at the moment!

The centre is still about 150 miles away from the Dominican as is the deepest convection so your mum should be ok.

Hannah seems to be static at the moment but an upper low to the west should turn her back northwards again tomorrow.

[Cookie]

thanks for posting that image jack

new update

Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT

Hurricane HANNA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Haiti

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 100% currently

Cuba

probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 60% in about 69 hours

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

probability for TS is 40% currently

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[kold weather]

It looks to me as if shear has blown the convection southwards. The center may well be now on the northern side of the system and if thats the case then its probably undergoing some weakening from where it was about 6-12hrs ago.

[shuggee]

She's all over the shop!

[Tn9]

do any of you folks know if this is the first season that the ukmet has officially had their model hurricane tracking/predicting?and if so how do you think its fairing?by what i have seen its doing reasonabley well,ii know some of the other models have extra -local data to work with ,but i think its doing well,whats your opinion-s?

[Jack Wales]

It looks to me as if shear has blown the convection southwards. The center may well be now on the northern side of the system and if thats the case then its probably undergoing some weakening from where it was about 6-12hrs ago.

You're correct Kold, downgraded to TS at the moment but should regain hurricane status within 24 hrs as shear levels drop...

NHC Hannah

From NHC...

000

WTNT33 KNHC 021156

TCPAT3

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008

800 AM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...HANNA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

...HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND

CAICOS ISLANDS...AND HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE

SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR

GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 385 MILES...615 KM...SOUTHEAST OF

NASSAU.

HANNA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. SLOW AND

ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO

BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST

TRACK...HANNA WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND

INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HANNA COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH

LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...

WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH

ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN THE

CENTRAL BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN

OF EASTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE

RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP

CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST

DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...21.2 N...73.1 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM AST.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN

[Coast]

Models still consistent with direction, although the spread of the track is quite large with only NGPS going for landfall in Florida.

[Jack Wales]

Hannah looking very sheared now and although the LLC can just be detected over the bahamas, all the convection has been displaced well to the south and IMO she is now at risk of being sheared apart.

Edited September 2, 2008 by Jack Wales

[knightstorm]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...02.html#content

Hurricane season in full swing

2 September 2008

As Hurricane Gustav continues to weaken, attention turns to the east with Hurricane Hanna and Tropical Storm Ike strengthening over the Atlantic Ocean.

The wind speeds associated with Gustav peaked at around 110 miles per hour as the eye of the storm passed over the Louisiana coast. Despite the easing wind, heavy rain is still falling with a continued risk of flooding.

Early September usually marks the peak of the Atlantic tropical storm season and 2008 is proving no exception.

Hanna is currently a Category 1 hurricane with wind speeds of near 80 miles per hour and higher gusts. The predicted path currently takes the storm through the Bahamas, then east of Florida and on towards the coast of Georgia and South Carolina.

The Met Office provides forecast information of tropical storms and hurricanes from its unified model twice daily to its colleagues at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami. This valuable information is used by forecasters in the NHC when compiling the official forecasts of track and landfall of hurricanes and tropical storms such as Gustav, Hanna and Ike and the issue of warnings to affected areas.

The Met Office has a responsibility to protect the lives of British citizens abroad and issues regular briefings to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) for tropical cyclones around the globe throughout the year. In addition the Met Office provides forecast information to humanitarian agencies and the insurance industry, giving advanced notice for mitigating action.

The latest forecast tracks can be found at the <A href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target=_blank>National Hurricane Center website.

[Somerset Squall]

Hanna remains trapped in a weak steering environment, and it is actually currently drifting southeastwards. It's bringing heavy rains to northern parts of Hispaniola, especially as the deepest convection is being sheared to the south of the LLC. A sharp northwestward accelaeration is still forecast along with a reduction in shear which may allow Hanna to regain hurricane strength before a possible east coast hit.

Edited September 2, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

new update on hanna

Storm Alert issued at 2 Sep, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HANNA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for TS is 100% currently

Cuba

probability for TS is 100% currently

Haiti

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 90% currently

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for TS is 90% currently

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for TS is 90% currently

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours

Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

probability for TS is 50% currently

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Iceberg]

Hanna might surprise alot of people yet.

She's shown alot of strength in the face of shear previously, and has also shown that she has the structure oto intensify rapidly and that should not have changed.

I am still going for a CAT 2-3 strike, but alot of her model guidance take her along the east coast, GFS and METO most keen on this. They both have her a strong storm in the north Atlantic 950mb ish.

Don't have time to post up much as it's the kids first day of the new school year, but will hope to a bit later.

[knightstorm]

I think this one will be simular in strength to what Gustav was when it hit the Gulf coast!

[Iceberg]

I have to admit she looked bl**dy awful earlier.

Convection has recently started around her centre again though and we might see the storm coming back to life.

50Kts was the highest recon found on the last trip, which indiates that very little is left and that winds of 45KT at surface is about where she is atm.

[Cookie]

big update on hanna

Storm Alert issued at 3 Sep, 2008 9:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HANNA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours

Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Port-au-Prince (18.4 N, 72.3 W)

probability for TS is 95% currently

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for TS is 90% in about 21 hours

Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)

probability for TS is 85% currently

Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Charlotte (35.2 N, 80.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

West Palm Beach (26.6 N, 80.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 45 hours

Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 93 hours

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Cuba

probability for TS is 40% within 9 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Miami (25.8 N, 80.3 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 45 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Megamoonflake]

Webcam from a hotel 5 miles away from where my mum is staying in the Dominican. Decent sized waves and not many sunbathers! http://www.cabaretecool.com:8080/

[Somerset Squall]

Hanna has killed 28 in Haiti:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0903/hanna.html

[Cookie]

not good at all

new update

Storm Alert issued at 3 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HANNA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Turks & Caicos Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Haiti

probability for TS is 100% currently

the Dominican Republic

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Grand Turk (21.5 N, 71.5 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Monte Cristi (19.8 N, 71.6 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Nassau (25.1 N, 77.4 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 21 hours

Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Santo Domingo (18.7 N, 69.9 W)

probability for TS is 45% currently

Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Fredericksburg (38.2 N, 77.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Baltimore (39.5 N, 76.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Coast]

The Islands of the Caribbean seem to be at some further risk but she doesn't look likely to make landfall in Florida now, quite some way up before that happens according to most models this morning, surely she will be 'out of breath' by then?:

[Coast]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7597307.stm

Haiti faces a "catastrophe" after being hit by a series of storms in recent weeks, President Rene Preval has said. Three storms in less than 21 days have killed 170 people and forced thousands to flee their homes in the Caribbean nation, officials say. The latest, Tropical Storm Hanna, has killed 61, caused floods several metres deep and stranded people on rooftops. It could prove even more deadly than one that killed more than 3,000 people in 2004, Mr Preval warned

[Cookie]

not good at all regarding hati!

a huge list of places in my latest alert

Storm Alert issued at 4 Sep, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HANNA is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the Bahamas

probability for TS is 100% currently

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours

Canada

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

San Salvador (24.0 N, 74.5 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Wilmington (34.2 N, 77.9 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours

Capeville (37.2 N, 75.9 W)

probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours

Norfolk (36.9 N, 76.2 W)

probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours

Kitty Hawk (36.1 N, 75.7 W)

probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours

Hatteras (35.2 N, 75.6 W)

probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours

Myrtle Beach (33.7 N, 79.1 W)

probability for TS is 85% in about 33 hours

Salisbury (38.3 N, 75.6 W)

probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours

Freeport (26.6 N, 78.6 W)

probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours

Charleston (32.9 N, 80.0 W)

probability for TS is 80% in about 33 hours

Atlantic City (39.0 N, 74.8 W)

probability for TS is 80% in about 45 hours

Richmond (37.5 N, 77.5 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours

Raleigh (35.8 N, 78.6 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 33 hours

Philadelphia (39.9 N, 75.2 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 69 hours

Baltimore (39.5 N, 76.0 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 45 hours

Washington D.C. (38.9 N, 77.0 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

Fredericksburg (38.2 N, 77.5 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 45 hours

Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

Belmar (40.1 N, 74.1 W)

probability for TS is 60% in about 45 hours

Concord (43.2 N, 71.5 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Boston (42.3 N, 71.0 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Providence (41.8 N, 71.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Chatham (41.7 N, 70.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Hartford (41.5 N, 72.7 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Siasconset (41.2 N, 70.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Montauk (41.0 N, 72.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

New York (40.7 N, 73.9 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Saint John (45.3 N, 66.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Bangor (44.5 N, 68.5 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Augusta (44.3 N, 69.8 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Portland (43.5 N, 70.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

St. Pierre and Miquelon

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Albany (42.7 N, 73.8 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Fredericton (45.9 N, 66.7 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Columbia (34.0 N, 81.0 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Montpelier (44.3 N, 72.6 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 93 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Coast]

Haiti gets a battering and the flooding continues:

NASSAU, Bahamas — Tropical Storm Hanna roared past the edge of the Bahamas on Thursday ahead of a possible hurricane hit on the Carolinas, leaving behind at least 137 dead in Haiti. Hanna blew by the Bahamas late Thursday, knocking out power to Cat Island and causing minor flooding in other eastern islands, but sparing the Atlantic nation major damage. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Hanna should reach the coast of North or South Carolina by Saturday, but its sprawling bands of outer winds are likely to hit the U.S. sooner.

Haiti's government more than doubled Hanna's death toll late Thursday to 137. It had previously been 61. Eighty of the deaths occurred in the flooded region of Gonaives, and 22 more people died in areas immediately surrounding the port, according to statements released by the Ministry of the Interior and the Civil Protection Department. The remaining 35 deaths were scattered across Haiti, the statements said. The storm also was blamed for two deaths in Puerto Rico.

Gonaives has been almost entirely cut off by Hanna's floodwaters, and virtual lakes have formed over every road. Gonaives — a collection of concrete buildings, run-down shacks and plazas with dilapidated fountains — lies in a flat river plain between the ocean and deforested mountains that run with mud even in light rains. Hanna swirled over Haiti for four days, dumping vast amounts of water, blowing down fruit trees and ruining stores of food as it swamped tin-roofed houses.

Two other storms killed 85 people in August, and forecasters warned that fearsome Hurricane Ike could hit Haiti next week. Haiti's government has few resources to help. Rescue convoys have been blocked by floodwaters, although the UN World Food Program said Thursday it was sending a food-laden boat to Gonaives from the capital, Port-au-Prince, and would set up a base in the stricken city.

"All roads able to access Gonaives are cut either by bridges that have collapsed, by trees that have fallen down, or by waters that have washed away parts of the streets," UN food agency representative Myrta Kaulard said. She said the UN peacekeeping mission was also hoping that its helicopters could take more UN personnel along to begin handing out aid, which includes 19 tons of biscuits, 50 tons of water, and water purification tablets.

In the capital, a U.S. Embassy spokeswoman said $250,000 in relief supplies arrived in Haiti on Thursday, including jugs of drinking water, and would be sent to Gonaives by boat or plane. Anger and frustration were growing at the inability or unwillingness of the government and the international community to help. If they don't have food, it can be dangerous," warned Sen. Youri Latortue, who flew in by helicopter. "They can't wait."

Ad Melkert, associate administrator of the UN Development Program who just returned from Haiti, admonished international donors to do more. "The poverty in the rain and mud of Haiti that I witnessed is nothing less than a disgrace," he said.

Where next then?

[Iceberg]

Hanna is re-gaining tropical appearance now and is looking good, pressure has dropped to 980 winds are responding and are about hurricane level. There is still time for Hanna to become a potent hurricane.

[Iceberg]

Looking at the doppler from Florida it seems that an eye is emerging in Hanna, a 980 pressure would be difficult to achieve without one to be honest.

[knightstorm]

Looks like this is gonna avoid Florida and hit south Carolina, but I would imagine it would have weakened a fair bit by the time it gets there!