METO Winter 08/09

[Don]

Not a bad forecast IMO and an improvement on last months. All eyes on December it would seem.

[Frosty.]

Not very inspiring from the met office bods really, it sounds like reading between the lines they are expecting january and february to be much milder after a cold start to winter, with temps coming out above average overall, nothing special there then. As for the meto further outlook just released, no mention of the word snow in the 3-5 day range and only snow for high ground out to 15 days although they do concede it will be a rather cold period for the first week with milder westerlies for week two. .......so, considering all the excitement being generated by the models and, wow we have never seen anything like this for years etc, the meto have in my view just poured cold water over the whole thing in their usual manner.

Edited November 25, 2008 by Frosty039

[johnholmes]

oddly enough if you watch the video with Steve, GP and Brick commenting, their prediction is, for the most part, along much the same lines.

[Frosty.]

The winter forecast from BFTP & RJS gets my vote anyway, much more exciting.

[Nick L]

I think it's just going to be same old again. Coolish December, horribly mild January and an OK-ish February.

[VillagePlank]

Thanks for the reply.

I now have less of a clue of what weather we can expect this winter than I did when I started reading the posts on here.

Hi Diane,

It's reasonably straightforward, actually.

The MetO is a government body tasked with all of our safety, and they are very well respected the world over. So, for instance, if they say - my goodness me you'll never guess what's going to happen this winter, we predict the whole country will come to a standstill under feet of snow - everybody will listen to them take notice, make plans, spend money, cancel people's Christmas leave etc etc on the basis of such a prediction. For instance, the Prison Service, I know, would allow less leave at the back end of December on that basis as would nurses, doctors, fireservice, police etc etc.

Now, if such a forecast occured in the model thread - who's going to listen? Sure amateurs and professionals alike read the thread because of it's academic interest, and, really, not it's predictive power - although, for sure, Net Weather has attracted many a talented meteorlogist who occasionally post.

The model thread is for speculative enquiry, the MetO is for public digestion.

Hope that helps,

VP

Edited November 25, 2008 by VillagePlank