METO Winter 08/09

[Optimus Prime]

Like I said before, they'll play it safe and dabble around the average no matter what Indications are tossed their way.

Don't think I entirely agree with that. At this point in 2005, for the winter 2005/2006 they went for temperatures near average to slightly above. A month or so later they updated it to the coldest since the 1995/1996 season and noted that Europe was likely to be colder than normal rather than milder.

It's nice to see the Metoffice (and Netweather Autumn forecast) has kept a level head of things, going for a cold winter won't make any difference to whether the coming winter will be cold or not, but it'll change peoples perspective on the quality of forecasts by the Metoffice which upto now is pretty good (60% success rate) The Metoffice put a huge ammount of work into their forecasts, which is what they get paid for. What you see is simply barebone detailof what research they do so we can understand what it all means.

Would be even better if a few people would keep a level head of things here at times rather than cry cold winter every year.

[damianslaw]

Preety much what I was anticipating particularly at this early stage, you really can't ignore the fact that the majority of the past 20 winters have been above average or just near average on this basis alone going by law of averages you would especially at this stage go with suit.

I'm not expecting them to change there stance in their updates on temperature, but perhaps they will adjust to wetter than average, however, personally speaking I think we have a good chance of seeing quite near average temps this winter.

[If Wishes made Weather]

Also worth remembering that average doesnt mean 'all the time'.

I havent read anything yet, but an average often has something below, and something above.

Nothing to suggest at the moment we wont get any decent cold spells.

Actually having a quick scout over the forecast, perhaps we are looking at a greater high pressure influence over the period (i.e. lower than average rainfall), but with it potentially being in the wrong place (i.e. above average temps).

A bit late in looking at this one – but I have a couple of questions that the knowledgeable could perhaps answer:

a- I presume that this is based upon the mean average rather than median or modal.

b- If this is correct, is there anything published yet that indicates or suggests the frequency and intensity of weather activity or perhaps 'events' that deviate from this mean?

Tim

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Preety much what I was anticipating particularly at this early stage, you really can't ignore the fact that the majority of the past 20 winters have been above average or just near average on this basis alone going by law of averages you would especially at this stage go with suit.

I'm not expecting them to change there stance in their updates on temperature, but perhaps they will adjust to wetter than average, however, personally speaking I think we have a good chance of seeing quite near average temps this winter.

In Racing parlance - it's called "Backing the form horse"

[Azores Hi]

A quick heads up, the Met Office winter forecast is due to be updated 10 am tomorrow (29th Oct).

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Can't See them doing a u-turn...but with this likely to be the 5th month in a row of near average temperatures might tempt them to nudge towards a slightly cooler scenario.

[Nick L]

I think the only change to the forecast will be "We still think that...". To be honest, it probably will be a mild winter as usual.

[Frosty.]

I think the only change to the forecast will be "We still think that...". To be honest, it probably will be a mild winter as usual.

Agreed, the usual stratospheric cooling is occuring again and it takes a while for the effects of this to filter through but the odds must favour a mild winter as per normal although cold snaps here and there can't be ruled out. The meto just do the broad brush strokes with their seasonal forecasts with not too much detail and freak weather events obviously can't be anticipated by anyone.

[Nick L]

And - as expected - the Met Office are sticking to their guns.

If you want to re-read the forecast, here it is:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/winter2008_9/

[Azores Hi]

Forecast for Winter 2008/9

Temperature

Winter temperatures are more likely to be above 1971-2000 averages over northern Europe and parts of southern and eastern Europe. However, over northern Europe, this winter is likely to be less mild than last winter. In other regions the chances for above or below average are evenly balanced.

For the winter as a whole, UK mean temperatures are more likely to be near or above average. However, we are likely to have a cold start to the winter with temperatures below average in December.

Rainfall

Below-average precipitation is slightly favoured over parts of central Europe; elsewhere the chances of above and below average are more evenly balanced.

For the UK, precipitation is more likely to be average, or below average.

Below average December. Finally a change of tune from the Met!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

An hour late also - Standards, tut tut

[TEITS]

Certainly encouraging.

When you consider the Met O forecast, NAO forecast, current model output, GPs recent posts, you have to think this really could be the start of something special.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Backing the form horse again - as said December has been the lowest anomoly wise over approx the last 10 years, so maybe the MET office are recognising this fact coupled with the model outputs. Not really surprising, but to change a month and to continue on the same track there after is a little strange.

[Diane_W]

After reading the Met Office forecast it seems as though we're going to have another boring British winter.

So what was that all about in the "Model Discussion" section?

[Azores Hi]

After reading the Met Office forecast it seems as though we're going to have another boring British winter.

So what was that all about in the "Model Discussion" section?

Hi Diane.

You have to remember that the Met will be 1000 times more conservative with their seasonal forcasts than anything you will see on the model thread. They will get a lot of stick if they go for specifics and they prove to be wrong.

In the model output discussion the forecasts will be more 'bullish' because they have a lot less to lose!

The fact that the Met are plugging for a below average December is about as bullish as will see from them and it's a great sign. It actually supports a lot of the encouraging posts and speculation from some of the forecasters in the model thread.

[Diane_W]

Hi Diane.

You have to remember that the Met will be 1000 times more conservative with their seasonal forcasts than anything you will see on the model thread. They will get a lot of stick if they go for specifics and they prove to be wrong.

In the model output discussion the forecasts will be more 'bullish' because they have a lot less to lose!

The fact that the Met are plugging for a below average December is about as bullish as will see from them and it's a great sign. It actually supports a lot of the encouraging posts and speculation from some of the forecasters in the model thread.

Thanks for the reply.

I now have less of a clue of what weather we can expect this winter than I did when I started reading the posts on here.

Signing off for a reality check.

Confused of Lowestoft.

[jemtom]

Backing the form horse again - as said December has been the lowest anomoly wise over approx the last 10 years, so maybe the MET office are recognising this fact coupled with the model outputs. Not really surprising, but to change a month and to continue on the same track there after is a little strange.

Couldn't agree more Timmy - it's just another classic example of the MO's long range forecasting agenda, which is all about playing the %'ages game and striving not to get things wrong, as opposed to getting them right.

[eddie]

You have to remember that there is a financial cost associated with the Met. Office forecasting any kind of unusual weather.

Councils, gas suppliers and any other organisations that have a financial interest in what the temperature is going to be will make their plans according to what the Met Office say.

If they said another 1963 was on the way then milions of pounds would be spent preparing.

On that basis they have to be fairly conservative unless they are very sure that exceptional weather is on the way.

[TEITS]

Thanks for the reply.

I now have less of a clue of what weather we can expect this winter than I did when I started reading the posts on here.

Signing off for a reality check.

Confused of Lowestoft.

The general theme seems to be an early start to winter i.e below average Dec with Jan/Feb likely to be less cold but still the possibility of cold spells.

Im afraid you won't get any more detail than that other than following the Met O 0-15 day forecasts and following the model discusion thread.

[jemtom]

You have to remember that there is a financial cost associated with the Met. Office forecasting any kind of unusual weather.

Councils, gas suppliers and any other organisations that have a financial interest in what the temperature is going to be will make their plans according to what the Met Office say.

If they said another 1963 was on the way then milions of pounds would be spent preparing.

On that basis they have to be fairly conservative unless they are very sure that exceptional weather is on the way.

That's what I meant by playing the %'ages game Eddie. However the same financial rules apply across the other side of the pond, but for some reason NOAA seem to be very much more confident and positive about their seasonal outputs.

Trying to play safe can also be fraught with dangers tho, as the MO might well discover to it's cost this Winter.

[kold weather]

INteresting to see the UKMO mention a below average December, I'm guessing long range ensembles of the ECM that we don't see will be highly suggestive of a -ve NAO recently.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Remember the winter of discontent of 78/79 under Jim Callaghan, strikes, recession and all that - what comes around goes around? - sorry a bit off topic, that wouldn't help the economy at all.

[len]

I seem to remember winter forecasts months ago..... stating that the recent La Nina going neutral, favoured a cold early Winter followed by a milder late Winter.

Perhaps this is correct and what the Met is now saying.

Len

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

I seem to remember winter forecasts months ago..... stating that the recent La Nina going neutral, favoured a cold early Winter followed by a milder late Winter.

Perhaps this is correct and what the Met is now saying.

Len

That is true...I remember seeing that, would be similar to the last few winters if that is so.

[Guest zebra danio]

Very pleased and encouraged with that - better than expected, bearing in mind how conservatively worded the organisation are in this respect of seasonal forecasting.

It definitely backs up the suggested model output and background pattern.