Stratosphere Temperature Watch

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes one would think so.

I have been wondering for some time and as SM mentioned it in the model thread I thought I would bring it up here. Is it possible that the effects are more diffuse this time? Rather than promoting a strong polar block in one position is it possible that the negative zonal wind anomalies weaken the northern jet as a whole, with slacker low pressure systems (more akin to summer), circumnavigating the globe but not allowing the major release of cold as we would expect if HLBs were in place? Or is something major still around the corner?

c

Might seem reckless to say (in the circumstances) but something HAS to give.

Hence my own frustration, not because the model are showing something I don't like (lol! as has been charged), but because it makes no sense whatsoever.

There must be a big u-turn to come...

Edited February 11, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[johnholmes]

it certainly does seem odd but then we are all pretty new to this idea. Little data seems to exist for the really cold winters nor for that matter for comparisons for mild winters to try and work out some sort of correlation for the start of mild or cold spells. Certainly as Tamara highlighted, prior to this unusual warming, the weather in the Uk this winter has matched quite well with both warming and cooling spells. Perhaps the cold spell now expected to end is part of the warming effect and it occurs much quicker than we thought. I was under the impression that after a warming began, or at least a few days into it, the time lag was from 15-25 days. The warming commenced around 20th January I think, so 15 days would put it about 7th or a bit later. 25 days would be 17th of this month.

If so then for the second date the models have to start showing something fairly quickly, I would suggest by early next week the pattern must be showing or its perhaps back to the drawing board. Odd though as other connections also suggest that northern blocking should be showing very soon. The NOAA charts especially have been very consistent in showing this developing.

Interesting to watch what does happen.

Edited February 11, 2009 by johnholmes

[chionomaniac]

it certainly does seem odd but then we are all pretty new to this idea. Little data seems to exist for the really cold winters nor for that matter for comparisons for mild winters to try and work out some sort of correlation for the start of mild or cold spells. Certainly as Tamara highlighted, prior to this unusual warming, the weather in the Uk this winter has matched quite well with both warming and cooling spells. Perhaps the cold spell now expected to end is part of the warming effect and it occurs much quicker than we thought. I was under the impression that after a warming began, or at least a few days into it, the time lag was from 15-25 days. The warming commenced around 20th January I think, so 15 days would put it about 7th or a bit later. 25 days would be 17th of this month.

If so then for the second date the models have to start showing something fairly quickly, I would suggest by early next week the pattern must be showing or its perhaps back to the drawing board. Odd though as other connections also suggest that northern blocking should be showing very soon. The NOAA charts especially have been very consistent in showing this developing.

Interesting to watch what does happen.

When looking at the zonal wind propagation charts shown earlier then 17-20 Feb could be the key dates when maximum tropospheric propagation could occur form this next phase. So I'll be watching out for something then. I still can't believe that with all the propagation that zonal conditions will occur. I guess this is what Paul Sherman feels like in an atmosphere ripe for supercells but they just don't occur!!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

it certainly does seem odd but then we are all pretty new to this idea. Little data seems to exist for the really cold winters nor for that matter for comparisons for mild winters to try and work out some sort of correlation for the start of mild or cold spells. Certainly as Tamara highlighted, prior to this unusual warming, the weather in the Uk this winter has matched quite well with both warming and cooling spells. Perhaps the cold spell now expected to end is part of the warming effect and it occurs much quicker than we thought. I was under the impression that after a warming began, or at least a few days into it, the time lag was from 15-25 days. The warming commenced around 20th January I think, so 15 days would put it about 7th or a bit later. 25 days would be 17th of this month.

If so then for the second date the models have to start showing something fairly quickly, I would suggest by early next week the pattern must be showing or its perhaps back to the drawing board. Odd though as other connections also suggest that northern blocking should be showing very soon. The NOAA charts especially have been very consistent in showing this developing.

Interesting to watch what does happen.

CH today has illustrated how progressive this event has been in terms of propogation - with the Dec 2001 event as a comparison. We also know of the Jan 2006 event which took until the end of Feb to replicate blocking at the surface and lead to a cold Spring. This event surpasses both events, surely, by a long margin both in terms of potency but also longevity and speed of propagation. This underpins the expectancy of some type of response sooner rather than later and in addition to the initial atmospheric response to the MMW which was felt last week with the first negative waves. And questions current interim NWP output which almost appears to suggest it doesn't exist in terms of current modelling.

Will they be felt outside of the remit for Feb ? (in terms of wintry weather potential) Brickfielders interesting post acknowledges long term knock on effects may be possible beyond the snow/cold chase.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes one would think so.

I have been wondering for some time and as SM mentioned it in the model thread I thought I would bring it up here. Is it possible that the effects are more diffuse this time? Rather than promoting a strong polar block in one position is it possible that the negative zonal wind anomalies weaken the northern jet as a whole, with slacker low pressure systems (more akin to summer), circumnavigating the globe but not allowing the major release of cold as we would expect if HLBs were in place? Or is something major still around the corner?

c

It is a possibilty of course.

But if it is a very strong propagator, and it surpasses the Jan 2006 event and by a long chalk (it is very a recent one to compare), which still provided fairly extensive northern blocking from late Feb to mid march so we should expect much more than a diffuse reaction from this one? Shouldn't we?

The easterly of last week IMO only represented the 'shock' reaction to the atmosphere of the MMW and the initial downburst of negative anomalies in response to it. I know that publicised accounts of the event seem to suggest that the event has already occured, but like JH says I would agree that this is just a precursor to the main effects. We know that further propagation node(s) are following.

What we don't know,atm, in the circumstances of 'contrary' tropospheric modelling, is if those main effects will be felt within, say the next 10 days, That in turn might mean that a lot of increased 'twitching and unrest' from the model thread natives is going to occur in the interim as it 'appears' that nothing is going to happen at all . It might (should!) happen tomorrow or the next day etc, but it is entirely possible that the sort of high impact results that Brickfielder reasonably talks about might occur some time after some people have demanded a post mortem on why the MMW didn't produce. If you see what I mean!?

That would take Steve M's 'diffuse' response onto a whole new level!

[rubble79]

Firstly, thank you all so much for providing and contributing to such a fascinating thread. I am learning so much from you all and am very grateful for all the time and effort you put in.

For fear of churning out garbage from my ignorant intelligence on this subject, I was curious as to what the likelyhood is that the models are simply struggling to pick up any changes and interpret them the way we are hoping/expecting? If this event is on a much grander scale then before, is it not possible that the models just don't know how to handle this and revert to default outcomes?

From what i've seen this week, and read about in the model thread, the charts are simply bouncing all over the place and have actually done an almost 180 in 24 hours. I don't know how common alterations like that are but it straight away made me wonder if it's because of this very subject? is it just a coincidence that the week where we were expecting to see, perhaps, some effects of the warming, is the same week/day that the models all chop and change?

[Steve Edgefield]

Having read Brickfielder's post from last night, he is suggesting that there may be a number of phases to this event. I think many people, mysefl included, expect large MMW = automatic northern blocking = high impact cold and if this doesn't occur then the theory goes out the window (myself not included here). People hate complexity and uncertainty and want things to be black and white. This is clearly a major and unusual event and I've become fascinated by it. Yes, it is disappointing that we're heading for a warm phase into next week but as brickfielder has suggested perhaps this is a transitional phase and one which the models will continue to struggle with for a few days yet - we shall see. I'm still of the view that this will still lead to further cold this winter/spring and it will be interesting to see what else during th year. I guess because it is so unusual, it provides us all with a great opportunity to learn.

[tundra]

I think a cold or very cold March, maybe along the lines of 1962 would not be far off the mark this spring.

The effects of this warming will be spread out over several weeks at least, perhaps we will still be feeling its effects well into April.

[mountain shadow]

Certainly zero sign of propogation to the H500 level on GFS 0z, indeed the opposite seems to be the case with a deep vortex over the pole around the T+168 mark with no significant height rises throughout the run.

Obviously this is 'new' theory being discussed and we are piXXing in the wind so to speak as to impact on Uk and Ireland

[chionomaniac]

It is a possibilty of course.

But if it is a very strong propagator, and it surpasses the Jan 2006 event and by a long chalk (it is very a recent one to compare), which still provided fairly extensive northern blocking from late Feb to mid march so we should expect much more than a diffuse reaction from this one? Shouldn't we?

The easterly of last week IMO only represented the 'shock' reaction to the atmosphere of the MMW and the initial downburst of negative anomalies in response to it. I know that publicised accounts of the event seem to suggest that the event has already occured, but like JH says I would agree that this is just a precursor to the main effects. We know that further propagation node(s) are following.

What we don't know,atm, in the circumstances of 'contrary' tropospheric modelling, is if those main effects will be felt within, say the next 10 days, That in turn might mean that a lot of increased 'twitching and unrest' from the model thread natives is going to occur in the interim as it 'appears' that nothing is going to happen at all . It might (should!) happen tomorrow or the next day etc, but it is entirely possible that the sort of high impact results that Brickfielder reasonably talks about might occur some time after some people have demanded a post mortem on why the MMW didn't produce. If you see what I mean!?

That would take Steve M's 'diffuse' response onto a whole new level!

When one looks at the vorticity charts that BF was illustrating yesterday the whole middle stratosphere has no vorticity whatsover. It is dead air up there with no discernable flows whatsoever. If some of this can transfer its way down to the troposphere then we are in business. I agree with your thoughts about post mortems when the MMW is still ongoing and the zonal winds at 10-30 hPa levels still negative! The strength of todays negative zonal winds are as strong as some MMWs ever get to and we are 20 days in to this one! Some people may have forgotten that.

c

http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/...mp;forecast=all

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm still wondering whether we have 2 main 'forcings' that can warm the strat and ,in one case (bottom up warming) we have a set of synoptics on the ground that will ,over time, continue into a pattern which is augmented by the impacts from above. The other (top down) will not ,necessarily, have favourable conditions on the grounds and impacts are therefore more mooted merely 'tweaking' conditions on the ground rather than dominating them.

Seeing as the warming was positioned out to our west (over Greenland??) I'd have thought we'd have been directly in the firing line for any impacts that propagated down into the trop.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes one would think so.

I have been wondering for some time and as SM mentioned it in the model thread I thought I would bring it up here. Is it possible that the effects are more diffuse this time? Rather than promoting a strong polar block in one position is it possible that the negative zonal wind anomalies weaken the northern jet as a whole, with slacker low pressure systems (more akin to summer), circumnavigating the globe but not allowing the major release of cold as we would expect if HLBs were in place? Or is something major still around the corner?

c

Hi C, Tamara, GP, JH et al.

On the above point. I think there was an immediate impact from the SSW felt in late January [not to say there's not a lagged effect coming too, I don't know]. However, with what C has mentioned re zonal winds...they have been weakened ALL winter and late Autumn, ENTIRELY IN LINE WITH THE EFFECTS OF TH HALE CYCLE/WINTER. When the sun leaves and odd cycle [eg 23] to an even one [24 current] then the solar poles flip back to alignment with Earth. The UV output is reduced, interraction with ozone is that less is produced. The zonal westerly flow is weakened and the jet is disrupted/amplified and forced south. We have seen lots of cold DESPITE no real/deeply -ve AO or NAO and previous HALE winters have been 84/5, 62/3, 39/40, 16/17, 1894/5...and IMO this is why.

These cycles vary between about 22/3 years on average. However, what in the longer term is of interest to me is that this HALE WINTER has occurred 24 years since the last. Why? Initially simply because cycle 23 refused to end and was still ongoing in 2008 and indeed a 23 sunspot was observed last month. Schwabe [solar] cycle is approx 11 years BUT they can vary between as short as 9+ years and as long as 13 years. Now this is where I am standing up and looking. The longer the cycle, the quieter the sun. Many top astrophysicists have forecast that we headed toward a deep minima whereas NASA said 24 would be one of the highest seen. Well with 24 set to peak at 2012 this just isn't going to happen. We could be headed towards a DALTON minima by cycle 25 [this one is going to be called The Gleissberg minima]. What effect will this have?

BFTP

Edited February 12, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi C, Tamara, GP, JH et al.

On the above point. I think there was an immediate impact from the SSW felt in late January [not to say there's not a lagged effect coming too, I don't know]. However, with what C has mentioned re zonal winds...they have been weakened ALL winter and late Autumn, ENTIRELY IN LINE WITH THE EFFECTS OF TH HALE CYCLE/WINTER. When the sun leaves and odd cycle [eg 23] to an even one [24 current] then the solar poles flip back to alignment with Earth. The UV output is reduced, interraction with ozone is that less is produced. The zonal westerly flow is weakened and the jet is disrupted/amplified and forced south. We have seen lots of cold DESPITE no real/deeply -ve AO or NAO and previous HALE winters have been 84/5, 62/3, 39/40, 16/17, 1894/5...and IMO this is why.

These cycles vary between about 22/3 years on average. However, what in the longer term is of interest to me is that this HALE WINTER has occurred 24 years since the last. Why? Initially simply because cycle 23 refused to end and was still ongoing in 2008 and indeed a 23 sunspot was observed last month. Schwabe [solar] cycle is approx 11 years BUT they can vary between as short as 9+ years and as long as 13 years. Now this is where I am standing up and looking. The longer the cycle, the quieter the sun. Many top astrophysicists have forecast that we headed toward a deep minima whereas NASA said 24 would be one of the highest seen. Well with 24 set to peak at 2012 this just isn't going to happen. We could be headed towards a DALTON minima by cycle 25 [this one is going to be called The Gleissberg minima]. What effect will this have?

BFTP

Morning Fred

Good post. The MMW did have a quick initial impact, I agree with that. I previously described it as an indirect one, which was not the best term to use, but implied by that there were a further series of downwelling negative zonal waves to propagate which would produce increasingly strong blocking with time. I still feel that is the case despite the model hiatus atm

In terms of the rest of what you said, please keep us all informed on the solar cycle developments. It is a big factor to be sure to watch over the coming few years in terms of where we may be heading

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Morning Fred

Good post. The MMW did have a quick initial impact, I agree with that. I previously described it as an indirect one, which was not the best term to use, but implied by that there were a further series of downwelling negative zonal waves to propagate which would produce increasingly strong blocking with time. I still feel that is the case despite the model hiatus atm

In terms of the rest of what you said, please keep us all informed on the solar cycle developments. It is a big factor to be sure to watch over the coming few years in terms of where we may be heading

Hi T

There is the lag correlation and I am far from knowledgeable on this but is seems that with such a large event there must be a follow up. Interesting to note too that the last one of this magnitude was in Jan 85!...look at my previous post and guess what? yep the last HALE winter.

Was there the same thing in 62/3 39/40? Do we have data fo this?

regards

Fred

[johnholmes]

I'll do a post either in here or as a blog of an attempt to correlate what has happened so far this autumn/winter, re the 30mb temperatures, the AO and the NAO.

Not yet fininshed it but it is rather interesting.

well to me anyway!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hi T

There is the lag correlation and I am far from knowledgeable on this but is seems that with such a large event there must be a follow up. Interesting to note too that the last one of this magnitude was in Jan 85!...look at my previous post and guess what? yep the last HALE winter.

Was there the same thing in 62/3 39/40? Do we have data fo this?

regards

Fred

Fred, I only have data to hand from the SSW website which goes back to 1958, so I don't know about the war year winter of 39/40 apart from the fact that it was a very cold easterly January, ice storms etc. But regarding the notorious 62/3 winter there was an SSW on 28 Jan but it wasn't of the magnitude of this one.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Fred, I only have data to hand from the SSW website which goes back to 1958, so I don't know about the war year winter of 39/40 apart from the fact that it was a very cold easterly January, ice storms etc. But regarding the notorious 62/3 winter there was an SSW on 28 Jan but it wasn't of the magnitude of this one.

Tamara

When was the Jan 85 one?

JH look forward to that

BFTP

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Tamara

When was the Jan 85 one?

JH look forward to that

BFTP

It was 1 Jan

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Fred, I only have data to hand from the SSW website which goes back to 1958, so I don't know about the war year winter of 39/40 apart from the fact that it was a very cold easterly January, ice storms etc. But regarding the notorious 62/3 winter there was an SSW on 28 Jan but it wasn't of the magnitude of this one.

Ok, Lets have a look at at the set up within the lag effect back then. I know it was a mild start to Feb and very cold from 7th onwards. Looks like it was 15 day lag. Northern blocking [uK Favourable] 15-23 Jan and then 5 Feb for another week. Can we gleen anything from that? Not on face value. Also just to add did we see immediate impact from the Jan 85 SSW/MMW? Well there was a true GHP an bitter cold.

BFTP

Edited February 12, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[chionomaniac]

It was 1 Jan

Very interesting Fred and I am believe the Hale cycle comes into play. 62/63 had a Canadian Warming in Nov and a MMW in Jan/Feb similar to this year.

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/stra...pole/index.html

The only time the jet stream picked up this winter was after the strat cooling in Dec Jan.

[Methuselah]

CH today has illustrated how progressive this event has been in terms of propogation - with the Dec 2001 event as a comparison. We also know of the Jan 2006 event which took until the end of Feb to replicate blocking at the surface and lead to a cold Spring. This event surpasses both events, surely, by a long margin both in terms of potency but also longevity and speed of propagation. This underpins the expectancy of some type of response sooner rather than later and in addition to the initial atmospheric response to the MMW which was felt last week with the first negative waves. And questions current interim NWP output which almost appears to suggest it doesn't exist in terms of current modelling.

Will they be felt outside of the remit for Feb ? (in terms of wintry weather potential) Brickfielders interesting post acknowledges long term knock on effects may be possible beyond the snow/cold chase.

I'm not being funny at all; as I find this thread of great interest...I was just wondering how we know that the cold spring of 2006 was caused by that particular event?

I know I'm old and all, but could those 'events' have been unrelated?

PS: I learn from asking stupid questions...

Edited February 12, 2009 by Pete Tattum

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Ok, Lets have a look at at the set up within the lag effect back then. I know it was a mild start to Feb and very cold from 7th onwards. Looks like it was 15 day lag.

BFTP

Jan/Feb 85 displayed the typical 'laddering' effect that most MMW characterise.GP spoke of these the other evening too, The series of downwelling negative anomolies provide sequential blocking episodes in tandem with these and short westerly zonal anomalies in between. I think the cold spells of that winter with the short mild snaps in between illustrates this well.

I believe that we are going to see a very similar sequence this late winter and early Spring too - the recent/current cold spell being the opening salvo

I too am looking forward to JH analysis in due course

[Nick B]

Morning Fred

Good post. The MMW did have a quick initial impact, I agree with that. I previously described it as an indirect one, which was not the best term to use, but implied by that there were a further series of downwelling negative zonal waves to propagate which would produce increasingly strong blocking with time. I still feel that is the case despite the model hiatus atm

In terms of the rest of what you said, please keep us all informed on the solar cycle developments. It is a big factor to be sure to watch over the coming few years in terms of where we may be heading

Maybe this belongs more in the political thread, but if this is the route we're heading, just think how our present governments and the UN departments (IPCC) will be viewed in terms of using AGW and "carbon taxes" to fill their coffers for their short term ideological gains... when the funding would have been better spent on working out how to cope with food production in a global cooldown!

I feel many of these phenomena (e.g. HALE winters, solar minima and SSW's) are related in a cyclical way - that is the way nature tends to work. Purely my opinion and of course there are many examples to the contrary, but it's a gut instinct for me.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Jan/Feb 85 displayed the typical 'laddering' effect that most MMW characterise.GP spoke of these the other evening too, The series of downwelling negative anomolies provide sequential blocking episodes in tandem with these and short westerly zonal anomalies in between. I think the cold spells of that winter with the short mild snaps in between illustrates this well.

I believe that we are going to see a very similar sequence this late winter and early Spring too - the recent/current cold spell being the opening salvo

I too am looking forward to JH analysis in due course

Hi T

Interesting, should see visual developments then by say well as JH has mentioned about 17th.

C

Yes indeed thanks for that. I 've been keeping eye on the thread and was very intrigued and saw a correlation to my thoughts solar/lunar method hence the chipping in.

BFTP

Edited February 12, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[chionomaniac]

Hi T

Interesting, should see visual developments then by say well as JH has mentioned about 17th.

C

Yes indeed thanks for that. I 've been keeping eye on the thread and was very intrigued and so correlation to my thoughts solar/lunar method hence the chipping in.

BFTP

Keep doing so Fred. It's all one big jigsaw. Finding out if and how the pieces fit together is another matter.

PT - Yes they can be unrelated and I haven't looked into the 2006 event in any detail. Certainly this years easterly can be shown to be a direct consequence of the MMW though.