Winter Lrf By Rjs And Bftp

[Iceberg]

I don't think anybody has thought that there forecast for December was bad. I think it's the claiming of things that either didn't happen as planned, or saying the forecast said things that it didn't which irks people.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I've put my comments in bold so i hope it works.

Iceberg

Fair points to bring up and I answer some.

Re the stormy weather the forecast goes on to explain a strong wind event. Parts of the country did experience severe weather but I will admit it wasn't as strong as I expected but am happy that a notable weather period occurred on time. It wasn't dead calm with HP dominating so you can see where I'm coming from as the pattern or flow has been and is on course.

CET re Nov yes...wrong...but pattern and timing I am very happy with.

All accept that to get sub 3c month is very difficult as we haven't had one since Jan 1997....so the idea is that Jan will be cold month with a chance that it could be severe temp wise. So although your point to the letter is accurate we have gone further, a lot further, than say the Meto who will say below average, average or above...so maybe a little more scope to be given?

Pit

I did respond before thinking and apologise for that. But just to clarify we have no thoughts of writing it off.

BFTP

Edited January 4, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[stormchaser1]

Morning Fred and roger

thanks for your updates, i mentioned some time back watch around the 10th and 11th of this month ,

and i also mentioned about the 12th December quite some time ago,

In My opinion at least Roger and Fred have explained there methods , not like some people [ mentioniong No names , i will just say the Daily express] for instance, I myself use the Lunar cycles to do alot of my forecasting, ive been doing alot of research regarding this for the last few years now, i find it very interesting, ok its a crude way for forecasting , [not knowing where a event will take place] but using these methods at least we can give some idea of what to expect

nigel

[SteveB]

Reading your forcast from a laymens pospective. I think you have done fairly well.

Whats the rest of Jan & Feb going to be like?

[Rollo]

I do not believe for a moment that anyone (Roger and Fred in particular) expected there forecasts to be spot on but it appears to me that their methods are certainly worth further investigation. I would for one hate to think certain criticisms that have been made would deter them from further forecasts. I only wish I understood them more and I have to point out theat Roger has tried to help me in this but perhaps it's my age. Please keep up the good work Roger and BFTP.

[Koppite]

Morning all, reading the LRF for up to the present date, i have to say it looks pretty close to the mark to me, correct me if i am wrong but the finer details surely can only be forcast in the short-term, the overall assessment of cold/milder and dry/unsettled periods looks good (for my area anyway!) What i would like to say is, for all those who are prepared to stick there neck out and do stuff like this (also all the members, to many to list, that post such informative posts in the model discussion thread,) keep up the great work!!!!

[johnholmes]

but perhaps it's my age.

Roger and BFTP.

I know the feeling mate!

[Evening thunder]

Well all I'm going to say is try to look for a Lrf for the winter that has done better than this, especially one that hasn't been edited/changed. If you find one I will be very surprised.

I don't know why some people have to try to find fault with these things. I wont mention names (may be easy to guess though) but I think a few comments on the previous page may have been a bit unreasonable.

Even if it does turn out wrong in the end its interesting to see how it goes, what was forecast near enough correct and what wasn't and how reliable this method of forecasting is.

Keep up the great work guys!

Ps: the night of the 12th to 13th December we recorded our highest wind gust since early October and the highest 12hour rainfall total since I set up my weather station over a year ago and there was bad flooding around here.

Edited January 4, 2009 by StormMad26

[Gavin P]

I think its been a very good forecast. This and Glacier Points (which have very similar conclussions, I think) have been the best LRF's I've seen this winter. I was very impressed by the storm around 12th/13th December, because whilst it wasn't exactly a hurricane, it was a major departure from an otherwise very calm, anticyclonic month and to me it appears that BFTP and Roger picked it out perfectly.

Edited January 4, 2009 by Gavin P

[Yeti]

Well all I'm going to say is try to look for a Lrf for the winter that has done better than this, especially one that hasn't been edited/changed. If you find one I will be very surprised.

I don't know why some people have to try to find fault with these things. I wont mention names (may be easy to guess though) but IMO a few comments on the previous page may have been a bit unreasonable.

Even if it does turn out wrong in the end its interesting to see how it goes, what was forecast near enough correct and what wasn't and how reliable this method of forecasting is.

Keep up the great work guys!

Agreed. The Meto were forecasting a mild December right until the end of November, when they changed it and then a week later praised their forecast. This was the best forecast around for December and worthy of merit IMO.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think its been a very good forecast. This and Glacier Points (which have very similar conclussions, I think) have been the best LRF's I've seen this winter. I was very impressed by the storm around 12th/13th December, because whilst it wasn't exactly a hurricane, it was a major departure from an otherwise very calm, anticyclonic month and to me it appears that BFTP and Roger picked it out perfectly.

Thank you guys, yes it isn't perfect and Roger and I are looking forward to the review about the pluses and minuses but overall happy at the moment.

Gav yes re GP [stewart] I too have been very impressed by his LRF AND what has been very encouraging is that our methods are so different but the outlooks and broad patterns very similar....food for thought?

JH LRF updates have been excellent too...MetO should bring him out of retirement!!

BFTP

Edited January 4, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Solar Cycles]

Excellent forecast up to now boys. Take no notice of the detractors, with there hidden agendas. Some can't accept natural forcings will always be the main driver of our climate.

Ps Roger, it really is a pleasure, to read your comments on this forum.

[acrossthechannel]

To Roger and Blast

Thank you for the good work guys and bravo! It'd be a shame if because of the grumpy guys, you would refrain from sharing your thoughts with us next November.

[Evening thunder]

Agreed. The Meto were forecasting a mild December right until the end of November, when they changed it and then a week later praised their forecast. This was the best forecast around for December and worthy of merit IMO.

Yes I was thinking the same when I postet just now. They seem to have done the same for January in their last update too, were forecasting Above average until they changed it to below average just before Christmas.

This forecast got it reasonably close from the start and I agree is worthy of merit IMO too.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

To Roger and Blast

Thank you for the good work guys and bravo! It'd be a shame if because of the grumpy guys, you would refrain from sharing your thoughts with us next November.

Roger's research is quite advanced and serious stuff and he has hit many brick walls in the past. Incorrect portions of the forecast will be assessed and reviewed properly and we have no problems with such areas being highlighted or indeed correct portions.

The post re Ken Ring IMO had a rather distasteful underhand tone to it as it is suggestive of totally dismissing this type of research. Ken Ring didn't help himself I must admit but he was treated rather badly by some who think that this planet cannot be affected by outside influences climate wise....like I say the similarity between GP and ours is certainly food for thought?

Anyway we try to progress and improve and we need the highlighting of right and wrong areas so thanks for all the posts and comments.

regards

BFTP

Edited January 4, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[born to be wild]

I'm not sure what set off this flurry of hostile criticism, perhaps the cold weather?

Does anyone seriously think that the AGW theory has been subjected to such a high standard of criticism? I doubt it. There, people seem to be able to get away with obvious mis-statements of fact as long as they convey the desired impression to the media and the politicians.

Fred and I gave this forecast an honest effort and we think it's not that bad. If there is some requirement that we should be slated for our efforts halfway through by a clique of global warmers, then it will discourage us from posting any more forecasts. I suspect that is the real intention here.

I for one would be very dissapointed if stopped posting forcasts .

Have follow them with great interest and been very impressed .

WW

[Roger J Smith]

Thanks (sincerely) to those who took the time to add their views here, I think people who know me will by now realize that I am not the sort of person to miss obvious differences between a forecast and reality, this is always part of the territory that goes with long-range forecasting. The one comment I did make back there about December was just a genuine effort to explain that one small part that has been called inaccurate is due more to poor wording than poor forecasting, as I think you can work out for yourself. Actually the wording there was really poor because the theory would suggest a strong chance of inversion high pressure before any northern max and perigee event as per the 12th of December, so I put that down to the sort of mental confusion that attends trying to forecast the weather long-range on two continents. If I had taken more time to edit the comments I sent Fred (after he sent me his views) this perceptual error would not have been in print. I honestly meant to say cold inversion high followed by mild period. We probably thought the 12 December event would be stronger and further south, I think that is pretty well established in comments I made elsewhere (including on the Irish forum where this storm hardly made a big impression). The forecasts are all based on index values generated from research data, so there is not much mystery about the method really, if you had lots of time and sorted out which years in the past were similar in the astronomical set-up, adjusted the dates to eliminate small differences, and crunched the numbers, you would have the index values we are using. Then near the end of each forecast period we can compare these index values to reality.

Obviously another useful step would be to compare the verbal forecast to the index values a little more carefully.

As to what happens next, I think it's fair to say that we will see some effort by the milder Atlantic to return to action, countered by this ongoing tendency for high pressure to form near Britain. Unless the upper flow changes more dramatically than currently depicted on the global models, this high pressure is going to retain at least some of its current cold characteristics and the longer that goes on, the more chance there would be for a renewed episode of cold advection from perhaps the northeast or east before the retrograde phase ends by moving too far west to be directly involved in the western Europe circulation. Since there are two main retrograde elements in play, one moving rapidly and one much more slowly, this retrograde influence may continue to be an element even into early February, but I think we'll be seeing the more powerful evidence for it shifting through Greenland into northeast Canada as the winter progresses.

At some point probably into about the second week of February, we foresee a more zonal or mild blocked sort of pattern, probably some of each, but the zonal portions tending to be quite stormy at times. There will be an element in the model of strong wave formation near the track that in past winters has run from around 50N 20W towards southern Scotland, so that we're expecting that eventually (more likely in February) there will be some heavy rainfall events this winter season.

Anyway, I am going to suggest just sitting on this from now to the end of the winter season, because it seems that any further discussion is just too likely to dredge up animosities that won't help any part of the forum in any obvious way. This research is going to continue and I can tell you that, so far, my forecast for the North American winter has been well received on the similar forum (to this one) Easternuswx.com although with roughly the same sorts of dynamics at play in that discussion too. Given the fact there are many more LRFs posted there, mine is very much one of a large crowd and that is saving me from taking a severe grilling on that forum, I am sure, since people tend to notice forecasts that verify to some extent and tend to ignore those that are either way off base, or couched in that annoying "if this happens, then that will happen" language that tends to drive forum readers to distraction, since everyone comes in already knowing that (the classic was the old habit of our national agency here to explain forecast possibilities in terms of the jet stream -- if the jet stream blows from the southwest, it will be mild. Well hey, guess what, that is rather obvious even to the layperson, but nice work if you can get it.) B)

If heavy clouds move overhead, the wind blows from the northeast and the temperature drops well below zero, it will snow. Somewhere. For a while. Call the Daily Express.

[johnholmes]

hi RJS and BFTP

I think the constructive way you reply Roger, your usual way, and how BFTP did so after some rather unnecessary back biting will lead to much more time being given by members on here to your ideas.

Part of the reason Ken Ring and recently Dave has met a fair amount of opposition is, I think that they, especially Ken ,would not take the time to reply constructively and ignore the more prickly replies rather than homing in on those who asked politely what the heck it was all about and show me proof please?

I have to say I have never understood your idea/theories in spite of the attempts last year by Roger.

However as a professional meteorologist, unlike some of my ex colleagues, I rarely dismiss anyones' ideas provided they are prepared to spend time explaining in simple lay terms how/why/and what they are trying to demonstrate.

Keep it simple, show examples, and above all be prepared to say, ok got that wrong, and perhaps explain what went wrong and why.

Edited January 4, 2009 by johnholmes

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks John. I agree, however, to leave any further comment to a post mortem...well at least until end of Jan because I think end of each month is reasonable.

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

One of the reasons why it may be hard to follow the research theory is because most of the evidence applies to the data and weather patterns for eastern North America. I have made some progress in working out how to apply the model to western Europe using the CET data base for some support, but my original posts on here in the research thread probably left things rather incomplete ... this may continue to be a drawback but I am just about to start up a research thread on the U.S. forum for people more familiar with the day to day weather over here (especially eastern half of N America).

If you follow those weather patterns or would like to take a second look at the research from this more appropriate perspective, then have a look in the forum (you'll find it laid out very similar to Net-weather) in the research area. Don't look until later Monday, I plan to start posting there tonight local time.

The address is

http://easternuswx.com

and then navigate to research in the weather forum section.

I may update here to continue the research thread already well underway, but right now, the patterns are easier to describe on this side of the Atlantic, and then you get the basic background for perhaps seeing how the system would work over this European sector.

The casual references to mega-cold and heavy snow here and there may be upsetting to some.

[Cal]

Roger, i have read part of that over on the Eastern board, it's late and i've been up all night long but that is an amazing amount of work you have put into it all over the years , ashamedly a lot went over my head... again it's late

[Cal]

Any updates/thoughts Guys?

[Roger J Smith]

Cal, would just update that the milder signal as discussed (10-12 Jan) is about on time, I think it's fair to say that cold was already deeper than we had perhaps expected to some extent, so since we are dealing with long-term trends, that may imply that the most impressive cold of the season is behind you now ... however, adjusting the forecast to the current situation, I would simply say this ... the balance is similar to the milder turn around the full moon in December, although less energetic at present. It implies that there might be more mild than cold days for about a week starting with the Sunday warming trend for the south, but after that, there should be one last good opportunity for a cold spell and perhaps better synoptics might develop for some snow at that point. The most promising time from a stastistical point of view would be around the 25th to 29th of January.

I should add that just because it threatens to be a little milder for much of next week, snow is not ruled out altogether, there are colder days like Tuesday indicated with some chance for snow but this time more to the north and west, which is good because they have not seen much yet.

When we made the forecast, February was looking like a more average month to us, with about equal indications of bland southerly flow with some blocking nearby to the east, as well as intervals that might be more stormy in a zonal flow situation. That has not changed because North America is threatening to become more of a west-ridge east-trough set-up all the time now, and when that finally does become the case, it favours a broad area of zonal flow in the Atlantic, but one that can head north around 20W and split, usually with the result of a blocked pattern over western Europe. So I still think February will have some spells of nice early spring weather, and some windy, wet weather, but not a lot of cold weather, compared to the other two months of the winter.

I would also like to mention that the 1940 analogue and the chance for a freezing rain event is still there, the 1940 circulation featured a lot of strong east-west ridges over central Europe, more so than Scandinavian blocking, and eventually a milder Atlantic air mass tried to move against a particularly strong example of that around 25-26 January, had no luck getting past about Plymouth apparently, and dropped a large amount of rain into sub-freezing surface layers in the Thames valley, where this storm was particularly bad. There was some similarity in the surface maps to the past two weeks of cold weather, but in this breakdown, it looks to me as though the energy is going to go well past Ireland to the north, and only slight frontal activity can be expected before the UK breaks into the milder air masses this time. If there happens to be another cold spell later in January and a breakdown, that could be a time for this freezing rain event to materialize, on some scale. Let's hope that doesn't happen because a large freezing rain storm can be very damaging and costly, as well as highly unpleasant. We get them in North America more frequently, and I think even among weather "fanatics" they are very unpopular events.

[full_frontal_occlusion]

I continue to be pleasantly impressed with the LRF issued on 7 November Roger. Nearly half way through the winter and two months in, all seems on track and certainly rips the pants off the METO for consistency.

Well done both of you.

ffO.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I fully agree with Roger that next weeks milder spell is nowt to be concerned about. The signal was there for it to happen and the fact that it is arriving to the day is actually a good thing. Very little has changed and so a cold last 3rd is as much on now as it was back in the beginning, not more and not less [which indeed implies that it is 'can happen' and not 'will happen'] but we must be positive as there is nothing to say it won't happen.

BFTP