Winter Lrf By Rjs And Bftp

[Roger J Smith]

Noggin, I know what you're saying about freezing rain, that is one kind of weather that nobody wants to get, you can have snow fans, cold fans, even mild fans and windy weather fans (as long as it stays within limits) but I've never heard of freezing rain fans. I guess it would be FRRA, which sounds like what I would say if I was coming in from scraping ice off my car for half an hour as I have on occasion (freezing rain happens more in the Great Lakes region than almost anywhere else on earth, and they can keep it).

We saw a case for mentioning it because of the overall concept of the forecast, which is cold intervals at war with mild background influences. And there was a severe freezing rain event in Jan 1940, another one that many of you know about in Jan 1982, both of which were winters with somewhat similar set-ups to what our theory is telling us to expect this winter.

I hope that part proves to be wrong actually because no freezing rain would be good news all around. But we see it as part of the overall set of events likely to develop in this pattern, so we mentioned it as a risk.

[memories of 63]

Noggin, I know what you're saying about freezing rain, that is one kind of weather that nobody wants to get, you can have snow fans, cold fans, even mild fans and windy weather fans (as long as it stays within limits) but I've never heard of freezing rain fans. I guess it would be FRRA, which sounds like what I would say if I was coming in from scraping ice off my car for half an hour as I have on occasion (freezing rain happens more in the Great Lakes region than almost anywhere else on earth, and they can keep it).

We saw a case for mentioning it because of the overall concept of the forecast, which is cold intervals at war with mild background influences. And there was a severe freezing rain event in Jan 1940, another one that many of you know about in Jan 1982, both of which were winters with somewhat similar set-ups to what our theory is telling us to expect this winter.

I hope that part proves to be wrong actually because no freezing rain would be good news all around. But we see it as part of the overall set of events likely to develop in this pattern, so we mentioned it as a risk.

Roger, I agree somewhat. I've only experienced freezing rain a couple of times, the worst being 1992 (I think).

We were living in Cumbria at the time, on the fells (about 1300 ft asl) about 5 miles SE Brampton. One morning we woke up with it being darker that we expected and when we opened thecurtains, we couldn't see out - very strange.

When we got downstairs, we still couldn't see out and I went to open the main porch door ( a VERY old church door). After much effort (it opened inwards), it opened and I was confronted by a sheet of ice about 1 inch thick. Outside, the whole of the house was covered with ice, the ground likewise, and my car (which was outside also) was covered by about 2 inches of ice. I couldn't get the key in the lock, the ground was like an ice rink and it was Cooold. So I turned round and went back to bed. I eventually managed to get the car free of ice by about lunch time.

A very interesting experience at the time but I wouldn't want it to happen often as it would be extremely dangerous for anyone trying to travel.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Very interesting feature developing to the SW of the UK end of the month. Intersting to read GPs thoughts and how that plays out to the timing of this LRF, although it seems the Teles are signalling a similar outcome if not timewise certainly synoptically.

BFTP

[paul tall]

I will only be satisfied by a period with the max reaching -5c, with mostly blue skies but replenished once in a while by a nice interesting blizzard to ensure the snow keeps its pristine whiteness.

Then, as the spring advances to have the snow melted by the sunshine rather than the miserable rain and drizzle we usually get, to be followed by a spring and summer with crystal clear blue skies, with the occasional thunderstorm to replenish the water supplies with a lovely indian summer at the end, but then I am something of an idealist.

No. That is how the weather should be.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just want to add my first little 'addition' to this forecast. Its not a change but a re-inforcement and just looking at the Christmas period and I feel the chance of it being very cold with snow for many is enhanced. Around this period with new moon and apogee combining there's a little signal I'm picking up of a 'notable' disturbed feature crossing the UK around Christmas Eve. Cold air will be over us or very nearby and will be well into the mix.

BFTP

Edited December 2, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Guest zebra danio]

Both of you - nice forecast and best of luck! Hope it verifies :lol:

[Roger J Smith]

The GFS is picking up the energy peak on the 12th-13th and each run is giving quite a dynamic look at what generally seems to be a collision between a strong low pressure area and a cold signal involving retrogression (easterly flow arriving).

I expect the details of this to stay in flux on the models well into early next week but if the development was anything like today's 12z GFS run the event could morph into quite a blizzard in some areas. I would say strong winds are the most reliable prediction from the statistical profile of this event, followed by mild to cold temperature signal. Those signals show up in most of the analogue cases. But I've been watching how the GFS handles this period from the first time it showed up at T+384h, at first the general trend was a mild W to WNW sort of flow with indications of nearby blocking high pressure. That signal has been gradually extinguished from the GFS since about Dec 1st and now we're getting stronger indications of a plunging NW to SE low pressure system with cold to rush in on a developing easterly flow as the low intensifies over France.

My guess is that the models will soon begin to show more development and perhaps slow down this transition to cold by a day or two. The relevant energy centre is just rippling by to the north of my location now and is eight days out, with at least two energy cycles to run through on the way across North America and then the North Atlantic.

Interesting days ahead. I can certainly second what Fred mentioned about the Christmas period and if there would be any amendment to the LRF at this point it might be to note that the month is looking potentially colder all the time, I think 4.0 C on the CET might be pretty conservative at this point, could be more like 2 or 3 the way things are generally setting up, and that can only be a good sign for an even colder January perhaps.

All of this snow that fell across northeast England will have the effect of reducing the resistance of marginal situations to produce more snow and this kind of reinforcement is why winter months tend to be somewhat all or nothing, once you get a snow process started it takes on a certain momentum from feedback.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting days ahead. I can certainly second what Fred mentioned about the Christmas period and if there would be any amendment to the LRF at this point it might be to note that the month is looking potentially colder all the time, I think 4.0 C on the CET might be pretty conservative at this point, could be more like 2 or 3 the way things are generally setting up, and that can only be a good sign for an even colder January perhaps.

Hi Roger

We did put a caveat into the forecast that we were being conservative as there is the potential for strong cold this winter. I agree that this mild sector is looking less mild all the time and wind will be the feature more than anything else.

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

The 00z run of GFS has put back some of the warmth for this 12th-13th event, but I see that North American output has been gyrating all over the place as the models are struggling to cope with a developing high amplitude trough near the Great Lakes region; eventually, expect this 12th-13th storm to be really wound up and possibly a memorable one for wind especially, a brief shot of warmth will just serve to wind it up even further, and as many seasoned weather watchers know, when the flow intensifies to the point that lows can race across the Atlantic in 36-48hrs then it is game on for severe weather in western Europe.

Looks like the higher amplitude wave pattern will start to ripple downstream through next week and Siberian high pressure is also looking robust, I see several -50 C readings east of the Urals while the high is nosing into European Russia too. All good signs for the eventual delivery of something more than just a northerly shot although that can favour some, they prefer to see northerlies to easterlies in Ireland for example. As long as it's a even larger teapot easterly, that is.

[Magadan]

The 00z run of GFS has put back some of the warmth for this 12th-13th event, but I see that North American output has been gyrating all over the place as the models are struggling to cope with a developing high amplitude trough near the Great Lakes region; eventually, expect this 12th-13th storm to be really wound up and possibly a memorable one for wind especially, a brief shot of warmth will just serve to wind it up even further, and as many seasoned weather watchers know, when the flow intensifies to the point that lows can race across the Atlantic in 36-48hrs then it is game on for severe weather in western Europe.

Looks like the higher amplitude wave pattern will start to ripple downstream through next week and Siberian high pressure is also looking robust, I see several -50 C readings east of the Urals while the high is nosing into European Russia too. All good signs for the eventual delivery of something more than just a northerly shot although that can favour some, they prefer to see northerlies to easterlies in Ireland for example. As long as it's a even larger teapot easterly, that is.

Yes, as easterlies in Ireland generally mean nothing more than envious glances at eastern Scotland and eastern England.

[dinger]

"high risk of a major storm around 12-13 December."

I have to say hats off to both RJS and BFTP

It takes major cohonies to issue a forecast but to give such a precise date for a major event which now looks as if it might come to fruition is worthy of praise indeed.

Ok the milder start to December mentioned is a wee bit off but I can't help but be impressed.

Well done guys

Edited December 6, 2008 by dinger

[Iceberg]

Anybody who does a forecast is always very brave and deserves credit.

It's worth waiting until after the event though as Chesire (a sampled NW County) only has 1 ensemble(the operational) that takes pressure below 990 during the timeframe.

For November the forecast that can be judged, any prediction between 7,6,5 or even below that could be judged to be accurate. They did predict lying snow though which is good.

"In mid-November, the effects will be spread out over several days due to secondary energy peaks after the full moon, but it seems that as soon as two or three mild waves move through, a serious change to much colder weather could follow, so the snow could be flying in at least western and northern regions of the UK as well as some parts of Ireland before November ends. This month is clearly headed for a near or below normal CET value quite possibly in the 5 to 6 range (Roger says even lower is in play)."

[Methuselah]

In my opinion, a well-worded and erudite forecast...So thanks guys!

I don't know why I like the chances of your forecast succeeding where many others spectacularly fail...but it just feels right somehow??? This winter's 'cold' spells have been colder than equivalent affairs of recent years; and 'mild' spells havenae been so mild...

Good luck guys. There's certainly something afoot for next weekend!

[Snowaddict]

Next weekend does indeed appear to be a stormy period, going on the latest GFS run and other runs. This would mean an absolutely excellent call regarding the forecast.

My major question is that the cold spell that is predicted to follow this stormy period... will it be something along the lines of February 1991 or a standard easterly/northerly??

Thanks...

Edited December 6, 2008 by Snowaddict

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just got a PM from Stormchaser [Nigel] re his forecast. Nigel uses lunar cycles only and has come up with this snippet.

Afternoon BFTP

on our Site ive mentioned i am expecting a cold period either before the 27th or just after the 27th december {december 27th]

being a New Moon i mentioned that about last month and it paid off infact either side of the new moon so i was more than happy with

my forecast,

ive also mentioned that we could get a white xmas probably with frost [im hoping its snow] but your dates are also corresponding with my dates

Just thought I'd add this in as I have read the same signal too.

SA re this anticipated cold spell later this month, progressively colder ie Nov spell colder than Oct and Dec spell colder than Nov...which would make it a decent cold wave. Potential in Jan for humdinger.

BFTP

[Gavin P]

Hey Blast, after the stormy period has blasted through, how do you see the cold later period setting up? Personally I'm expecting high pressure to build in (probably from the Azores? (around 17th-20th) possibly bringing a couple of days of very mild weather (12c+) followed by inversion type conditions with frost and fog. Retregrssion towards Xmas, with a northerly Xmas giving snow to the north and frost to the south, then between Xmas and New Year pressure rises to the north-east, with winds turning north easterly and then probably easterly by New Year?

Edited December 6, 2008 by Gavin P

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Nice one Fred & Roger. Look forward to seeing how this pans out.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hey Blast, after the stormy period has blasted through, how do you see the cold later period setting up? Personally I'm expecting high pressure to build in (probably from the Azores? (around 17th-20th) possibly bringing a couple of days of very mild weather (12c+) followed by inversion type conditions with frost and fog. Retregrssion towards Xmas, with a northerly Xmas giving snow to the north and frost to the south, then between Xmas and New Year pressure rises to the north-east, with winds turning north easterly and then probably easterly by New Year?

Hi Gav

I think that there'll be secondary LP off this main one bringing several days of very windy/gusty/gale force days. But am after this looking at rapid pressure rises to our north and NE [no not immediate easterly] but the jet will get forced south into mainland Europe hence any LP coming our way will be a cold player, hence why the Xmas Eve peak energy signal I have mentioned could be interesting as regards to Christmas Day itself, but agree New Year to be peak of cold on that spell.

BFTP

[Gavin P]

Thanks mate.

[carpo21]

Fred/Roger,

I think your forecasts so far this autumn/winter have been pretty much on the money I think. I'm eager to see if your projections for the remainder of December and early January materialise. I must say that I don't profess to start to understand quite how you come to your forecasts but, (and we'll see come March 2009), whether other sceptics on this forum will give credence to alternative methods of weather forecasting. I sincerely hope you come out with glowing (but perhaps not solar flaringly - they're so 70s!) results, as it will build a stronger case for your (can I say experimental?) but potentially very important work.

[Roger J Smith]

The raw temperature signal from lunar analogues shows a tendency for either near normal or mild readings to be sustained to a second event which in my research is the same event from an upstream timing line morphing into a second strong wave crossing "timing line 3" which is near the British Isles. This showed up last year in December and turned out to be a somewhat stronger low than the full moon low as I recall (24th then 28th).

Given the high speed of the jet likely to be forming during the 12th-14th period, this second wave which is timed for about the 17th-18th may follow a similar track and during this period we may see the battleground set-up developing, but if the whole thing is pushed south to any extent as some model runs continue to hint at, then a very wintry set-up would quickly develop. It's probably good for the chances of a cold winter to have this high-energy mild signal coming and going in the first half of December rather than later because I think we are all aware of the persistence factor that seems to plague late December into January in general.

As you can see the models are still having some trouble resolving the high energy events around 12-13 Dec and keep giving us different looks but the consensus is starting to look "very windy" and perhaps a brief shot of much milder air in the south. I have a hunch that this second wave that keeps showing up on the 14th or so is an error introduced from the unanticipated speed-up about to begin with the perigeean factor, so in other words I would read the models with the second wave as a trailing or diving sort of feature as "plan B" at this point and see how reality pans out.

[SNOWPLOUGH]

The raw temperature signal from lunar analogues shows a tendency for either near normal or mild readings to be sustained to a second event which in my research is the same event from an upstream timing line morphing into a second strong wave crossing "timing line 3" which is near the British Isles. This showed up last year in December and turned out to be a somewhat stronger low than the full moon low as I recall (24th then 28th).

Given the high speed of the jet likely to be forming during the 12th-14th period, this second wave which is timed for about the 17th-18th may follow a similar track and during this period we may see the battleground set-up developing, but if the whole thing is pushed south to any extent as some model runs continue to hint at, then a very wintry set-up would quickly develop. It's probably good for the chances of a cold winter to have this high-energy mild signal coming and going in the first half of December rather than later because I think we are all aware of the persistence factor that seems to plague late December into January in general.

As you can see the models are still having some trouble resolving the high energy events around 12-13 Dec and keep giving us different looks but the consensus is starting to look "very windy" and perhaps a brief shot of much milder air in the south. I have a hunch that this second wave that keeps showing up on the 14th or so is an error introduced from the unanticipated speed-up about to begin with the perigeean factor, so in other words I would read the models with the second wave as a trailing or diving sort of feature as "plan B" at this point and see how reality pans out.

so you think it will get very cold after this event? B)

SP

[stormchaser1]

Morning Roger and BFTP

regarding the 12th December, {next Friday] looks like our predictions could pay off , ive been ranting about the 12th december for a very long time now , and look what the charts are showing at the moment ,STRONG WINDS SW IRELAND 60+ AND HEAVY RAIN, ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP LOW DEPRESSION

PERSONALLY I THINK THERE MIGHT BE A WEATHER WARNING ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Morning Roger and BFTP

regarding the 12th December, {next Friday] looks like our predictions could pay off , ive been ranting about the 12th december for a very long time now , and look what the charts are showing at the moment ,STRONG WINDS SW IRELAND 60+ AND HEAVY RAIN, ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP LOW DEPRESSION

PERSONALLY I THINK THERE MIGHT BE A WEATHER WARNING ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK

Agreed Nigel

The energy peak is only just being really picked up and we are in for a 'notable' period.

Roger PM me re your latest signals.

BFTP

[stormchaser1]

Morning Fred and Roger

Thanks for posting my message yesterday, Next weeknds storm looks at the moment as though it could be a severe storm especially for south west Ireland and the south west regions of the Uk,

Two dates im looking at next year in my lunar cycle theorie

January 10th moon will be Perigee at 357500 approx Jan 11th will see a Full moon, so im looking at a stormy period around these dates, Then the next date im looking at is

JULY 21ST PERIGEE AT 357464 APPROX NEW MOON ON THE 22ND iM LOOKING AT A SEVERE EVENT AROUND THESE DATES TOO

,

HOWEVER lets get winter out the way first, those two dates of December 12th and January 10th could be significant

any thoughts

Nigel