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Winter Lrf By Rjs And Bftp


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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Mods feel free to move this to a relevant place you see fit. Folk sorry for delay my PC failed on me yesterday.

Friday, 7 November, 2008

Cold spells ahead -- the combined winter forecast of BFTP and RJS

As you are aware I use lunar and solar cycles to predict weather patterns and I have used this technique to compile my forecast. My forecast signals are formed from a baseline of several observations.

This year we have seen a southward movement of the jet-stream linked IMO to the current solar pattern.

According to my calculations this winter is the HALE winter.

Upstream we have seen that we have entered the -ve PDO phase and perturbation cycle where La Nina will dominate. These add up to cooler climes.

As you are aware Roger has his own excellent research using magnetic field influences. You can read about his research in the 'learning area' and also on his site Future Weather inc. Set out is the pattern expected and when I sent my initial draft to Roger there were big similarities to the overall pattern. Roger's technique is much more advanced and more detail could be added and indeed there may be additions/updates throughout particularly if Roger's research picks up on disturbances. I too will of course chip in if I pick up on further peak energy signals that may influence some periods.

So here we go.

Net-weather members "Blast from the Past" and Roger J Smith http://futureweatherinc.com/

have combined their efforts this year after coming to the conclusion that they have essentially the same forecast in mind. Why ask people to read two when only one is really required?

The forecast essentially calls for quite a variable pattern as a stubborn Atlantic tries to deal with what all signs indicate will be a very active polar regime that is already making claims on Greenland and even the recently ice-free regions around Svalbard and further east.

The battle is clearly on, with the last week of October showing just how vigorous the northerly influence can be when summoned.

Roger and I both agree that some periods will fall to this colder influence, while other periods of the winter to come will be mild and probably quite stormy.

The rhythm of this alternating pattern will probably be governed mainly by the lunar cycle which favours mild and westerly influences near the full moons, which are both perigee-an this season, and northern max in declination as always. Those influences combined will probably allow strong low pressure to blast through the chaos and draw in (if temporarily) rather mild air masses that will be coming along at a furious pace due to the strong gradients. In mid-November, the effects will be spread out over several days due to secondary energy peaks after the full moon, but it seems that as soon as two or three mild waves move through, a serious change to much colder weather could follow, so the snow could be flying in at least western and northern regions of the UK as well as some parts of Ireland before November ends. This month is clearly headed for a near or below normal CET value quite possibly in the 5 to 6 range (Roger says even lower is in play).

December.

December will then replicate this pattern of a milder start, after perhaps a few days of anticyclonic blocking and frosty nights. A severe storm is indicated as more likely than not, in the period 11th-14th, timed for the full moon at perigee which on this occasion will pretty much coincide with other strong energy peaks. So mark the calendar if not setting the watch for a strong SW to W wind event across the British Isles around the 12th-13th perhaps continuing with a second period of strong winds shortly after. This will also be a milder period with temperatures likely to peak around 12 C. After this, much colder conditions are likely to follow as blocking high pressure will quickly redevelop both to the north and well to the northeast, directing the jet stream back towards France and the Mediterranean. Whether it happens suddenly or in stages, there is likely to be a much colder period in late December and some chance for a white Christmas, although a better chance of a snowy New Years Eve and Day. With all of these variations, December is likely to register a near average 4.5 C on the old CET, but this will be less interesting than the week to week variations.

January

Then into January, we are optimistic that some real winter weather will strike, and the sad memories of the past two winters will fade as strong low pressure systems are forced to take rather southward-shifting tracks at regular intervals. Possibly one or two will succeed in pushing further north again for a day or two of rain and mild weather, but quite a few of these disturbances, which are likely to be well developed with strong energy peaks, could track far enough south to bring many regions snow, or sleet or even freezing rain. There is some similarity indicated to 1940, a January which brought perhaps the worst freezing rain event ever seen in England, so that could see at least a minor repeat. The milder period of this month could be expected around the 10th to 12th, but other intervals of quite cold weather seem likely, snow will cover the landscape for at least part of the month, and the CET could be lower than 3 C for the first time since Jan 1997!, and could even reach the depths of sub-2.0 if everything works out perfectly.

February

This leaves us with a February that may be one of two things, either a bland return to milder weather in persistent blocking shifting away to the southeast, or possibly a more unpleasant return to limited zonality because of a tendency to strong wave formation suggested by one variable in the research model. If it is a blend of these two then the month could produce a little of everything, a near normal 4.5 C CET, and perhaps one good snowstorm for final measure. March is likely to become quite mild, so for once winter may actually happen in the winter season.

We hope you have enjoyed the read. We have agreed to remain in the conservative mode but just to mention that if the expected coldest period develops, as might be, this could be a pretty severe spell of wintry weather.

Feel free to ask questions either on here or by PM.

Kind regards

BFTP and RJS

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

A well presented forecast.

If it turns out anywhere near accurate it would be like a typical Winter of the 1960`s--changeable but with some proper cold spells.

I would be happy to see that.

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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

Nice work, I hope its not going to be as cold as you say, my house is already feeling like its made of ice.

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I have not made any measurements of this or collected records of this but it has appeared to me sometimes that a full moon heralds a change in the weather.

It would be interesting if someone were to compare historically the lunar cycles with the daily records, though a mamoth task. Or, perhaps someone may already have done it.

In any case I will be watching this space during the coming months.

I wonder what the weather will be like in Languedoc in February? I will be going there for a time to supervise the renovation of a house.

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Posted
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold. Enjoy all extremes though.
  • Location: Lochgelly - Highest town in Fife at 150m ASL.

Very well researched forecast. Thanks for the effort and I hope it pays off!

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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl
  • Weather Preferences: warm and sunny, thunderstorms, frost, fog, snow, windstorms
  • Location: Saddleworth, Oldham , 175m asl

Great read, hope it comes off as it would be good to have some wintry weather in January again.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

tks to both Roger and BFTP for sticking their heads above the parapet so to speak.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m

Thanks for that and well done!!!

I can't wait to see some very wintry and cold weather in December and January,I have not seen lying snow since 2001 in dublin,so this would be great ;)

SP

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Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

I tend to think you are on a hiding to nothing with a LRF in the UK but they are always interesting to read - thanks. Like you I tend to think colder than the last 2 unseasonably mild affairs but overall maybe more close to average than below temperature wise.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

With any winter LRF, the emphasis is usually on temperature, and certainly there is optimism for colder temperatures at least getting into the mix this year.

However, I just wanted to underline the idea that in our forecast, we are expecting a higher than average degree of storminess this winter, and possibly a bit further south than "storminess" has come to imply in recent seasons.

We mentioned the high risk of a major storm around 12-13 December. I'm thinking that from about 27 December on, there will be frequent moderate to intense low pressure systems moving through some part of the British Isles, and fairly often these may be on a track across southern England. The research is showing a peak in the focus or organization of these storms in late January and February. I will post more about this in the research thread as we get a bit closer to the time, but with this energy system being researched, there is about a 3.5 day cycle which tends to give the weeks a bit of a defined rhythm. The cycle is a bit longer than exactly 3.5 days so this tends to move later in the week slightly as time goes on, but in general, these peaks should be occurring around the late weekends, and from Wednesdays to Thursdays as the winter progresses.

If there is going to be a significant cold spell with a lot of snow, I think the two best times for that to set up will be around New Years, and in the second half of January. Around 9-11 January there is a milder interval indicated, hopefully that will be a brief one that separates two good cold spells. :doh:

As BFTP says, we will stay on the case and update our forecast if we start to get different signals, but you have to admit, the size of the arctic vortex so far this early in the season is encouraging, it seems that the 510 dm thickness has established an almost permanent home over the Greenland-Baffin sector but it also seems reasonably healthy across Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya, so some of the building blocks seem to be in place, Scandinavia could get some reasonable cold spells and snow cover building up, and ice could build reasonably fast down the east coast of Greenland, all good signs if there is to be a base for significant cold air in the eastern Atlantic sector.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
With any winter LRF, the emphasis is usually on temperature, and certainly there is optimism for colder temperatures at least getting into the mix this year.

However, I just wanted to underline the idea that in our forecast, we are expecting a higher than average degree of storminess this winter, and possibly a bit further south than "storminess" has come to imply in recent seasons.

We mentioned the high risk of a major storm around 12-13 December. I'm thinking that from about 27 December on, there will be frequent moderate to intense low pressure systems moving through some part of the British Isles, and fairly often these may be on a track across southern England. The research is showing a peak in the focus or organization of these storms in late January and February. I will post more about this in the research thread as we get a bit closer to the time, but with this energy system being researched, there is about a 3.5 day cycle which tends to give the weeks a bit of a defined rhythm. The cycle is a bit longer than exactly 3.5 days so this tends to move later in the week slightly as time goes on, but in general, these peaks should be occurring around the late weekends, and from Wednesdays to Thursdays as the winter progresses.

If there is going to be a significant cold spell with a lot of snow, I think the two best times for that to set up will be around New Years, and in the second half of January. Around 9-11 January there is a milder interval indicated, hopefully that will be a brief one that separates two good cold spells. :doh:

As BFTP says, we will stay on the case and update our forecast if we start to get different signals, but you have to admit, the size of the arctic vortex so far this early in the season is encouraging, it seems that the 510 dm thickness has established an almost permanent home over the Greenland-Baffin sector but it also seems reasonably healthy across Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya, so some of the building blocks seem to be in place, Scandinavia could get some reasonable cold spells and snow cover building up, and ice could build reasonably fast down the east coast of Greenland, all good signs if there is to be a base for significant cold air in the eastern Atlantic sector.

Just how cold do you expect these cold spells to be in comparison to other winter cold spells? :doh:

SP

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Posted
  • Location: Sale (Cheshire)
  • Weather Preferences: Dry and cold...
  • Location: Sale (Cheshire)

Cheers lads, here is hoping yours is voodoo science, I'm flying right in that super storm in December period you're predicting! :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Just how cold do you expect these cold spells to be in comparison to other winter cold spells? :doh:

SP

We have seen how potent potential cold can be already in October...so bitter cold is possible. The arctic is showing its hand and if we get in the mix as you can see a potential sub 2c monthis possible...so cold as in not seen since at least Jan 1997 and possibly much earlier.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
We have seen how potent potential cold can be already in October...so bitter cold is possible. The arctic is showing its hand and if we get in the mix as you can see a potential sub 2c monthis possible...so cold as in not seen since at least Jan 1997 and possibly much earlier.

BFTP

Well if the arctic does show its hand like it did in October(very early) well then I would expect it to get very cold,if we get a sub 2c month it would be a shock to the system for alot of people especially the people who have not experienced a very cold month or were to young to remember.I will mark those dates for potential severe storms.I really do hope your forecast becomes reality this winter as I miss lying snow so much here in Dublin and the cold :doh:

SP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Well if the arctic does show its hand like it did in October(very early) well then I would expect it to get very cold,if we get a sub 2c month it would be a shock to the system for alot of people especially the people who have not experienced a very cold month or were to young to remember.I will mark those dates for potential severe storms.I really do hope your forecast becomes reality this winter as I miss lying snow so much here in Dublin and the cold :doh:

SP

Hi SP

I am hopeful and the perigee/full moon is a strong signal for peak energy. It is the 14th this month and Full Moon 13th and I think is number two in closeness for 08. The storminess happens in a window covering the approach to and just after the date. We see that this month is falling into line and there's a nasty feature over the next couple days.

It is important that folk note the variable theme of temperature, its not all cold in fact a fair bit of mild buit to get CETs as suggested then the cold episodes should be of note. Dec Perigee is the closest of 2008 and it coincides exactly with full moon so anticipate this to be very noteworthy.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
Hi SP

I am hopeful and the perigee/full moon is a strong signal for peak energy. It is the 14th this month and Full Moon 13th and I think is number two in closeness for 08. The storminess happens in a window covering the approach to and just after the date. We see that this month is falling into line and there's a nasty feature over the next couple days.

It is important that folk note the variable theme of temperature, its not all cold in fact a fair bit of mild buit to get CETs as suggested then the cold episodes should be of note. Dec Perigee is the closest of 2008 and it coincides exactly with full moon so anticipate this to be very noteworthy.

BFTP

BFTP,am I right in saying around the 13th/14th of November it will be stormy and that the period of 10th-14th of December there is going to be a big noteworthy storm? :doh:

Well yes I would expect in any winter no matter how severe there is going to be mild weather at some point,still anything cold is welcome :doh:

SP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
BFTP,am I right in saying around the 13th/14th of November it will be stormy and that the period of 10th-14th of December there is going to be a big noteworthy storm? :doh:

Well yes I would expect in any winter no matter how severe there is going to be mild weather at some point,still anything cold is welcome :doh:

SP

Not quite, I did a monthly outlook for Nov and predicted storminess on the approach to the 13th. The dates show perigee and full moon so peak energy periods 'encouraging' storminess and our region of the world is prone to this influence. Re Dec yes the signal is for pretty noteworthy LP system/s.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall
  • Location: Nr Bude, Cornwall

A great effort chaps, however I fall into the category of hoping you'll be right but expecting you'll be wrong - as ever, time will tell, but I'll be the first to congratulate and concede defeat if you are subsequently proven correct. Good luck.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
Not quite, I did a monthly outlook for Nov and predicted storminess on the approach to the 13th. The dates show perigee and full moon so peak energy periods 'encouraging' storminess and our region of the world is prone to this influence. Re Dec yes the signal is for noteworthy LP system/s

BFTP

well I know the last few days(apart from today) have had high winds and heavy rain, so that's a bit near the 13th :doh:

Ok so around the 2nd week of December?

SP

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