Winter Lrf By Rjs And Bftp

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Morning Fred and Roger

Thanks for posting my message yesterday, Next weeknds storm looks at the moment as though it could be a severe storm especially for south west Ireland and the south west regions of the Uk,

Two dates im looking at next year in my lunar cycle theorie

January 10th moon will be Perigee at 357500 approx Jan 11th will see a Full moon, so im looking at a stormy period around these dates, Then the next date im looking at is

JULY 21ST PERIGEE AT 357464 APPROX NEW MOON ON THE 22ND iM LOOKING AT A SEVERE EVENT AROUND THESE DATES TOO

,

HOWEVER lets get winter out the way first, those two dates of December 12th and January 10th could be significant

any thoughts

Nigel

Cheers for sharing your thoughts Nigel. Very interesting re the dates you mention, I can agree certainly with your winter dates but I haven't looked at summer yet but certainly with perigee and new moon coinciding there's the first signal. I'm really interested in next weekend and what develops from that.

BFTP

[dinger]

Quote by BFTP on model discussion thread - "Cold Christmas, very cold New Year!!"

Are the below charts what you had in mind lol

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119951225.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119781231.gif

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Quote by BFTP on model discussion thread - "Cold Christmas, very cold New Year!!"

Are the below charts what you had in mind lol

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119951225.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119781231.gif

I remember both events. The 95 event was pretty good too and I remember going to the Penlan Social club in Swansea with my dad Boxing Day lunchtime. When we came out about 2-30 pm I said to my dad how cold it was...it was perishing with all day hard frost.

More to come

BFTP

[dinger]

Both were extraordinary snow events for me. Hogmany '78 was amazing but I was only 9 so don't really remember the hardships that go with such an event.

Xmas '95 was fantastic, started snowing xmas eve and it took me an hour and a half to walk the half mile home from the pub. Kept falling on my a**e lol. Alcohol, snow and slippy shoes is not a combination found in a health and safety manual.

The thing I remember most is the bitter cold that ensued. Daily maximum was -10. Brrrr!!!

Hopefully Roger is correct in his PM to you and we might see something like that again

Colin

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

:lol: Winter

BFTP

Edited December 10, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[SNOWPLOUGH]

:lol: Winter

BFTP

what about it? :lol:

SP

[stormchaser1]

Morning Roger and Fred

ive been watching these charts since they came out , and it looks like this weekends prediction by yourself /Roger/ and myself could pay off

nigel

rain charts below

[stormchaser1]

Evening everyone

Wasnt sure where to put this picture, and i wasnt going to start a new thread just for one picture, well as you all know

the Moon and the Lunar cycles are my favourtie talking point , {and photography]

I manged to take this picture of the moon tonight at 1700hrs

[i apologise if its in the wrong thread]

nigel

[stormchaser1]

looks like the North East missed out on the strong winds , top wind speeds 31.5mph recorded last night, stronger winds else where in the country,

Heavy rain just started here in the North East , flash flooding in Somerset , {hope every one stays safe]

nigel

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

looks like the North East missed out on the strong winds , top wind speeds 31.5mph recorded last night, stronger winds else where in the country,

Heavy rain just started here in the North East , flash flooding in Somerset , {hope every one stays safe]

nigel

Indeed very windy and heavy rain down here in the 'warm' SE. Awful conditions or nice depending on your preference. The perigee/full moon combination shows its hand nicely.

BFTP

[full_frontal_occlusion]

An impressive call and a tick in the box from me for your first storm prediction guys. Well done.

Next up Christmas and New Year. Feeling confident? Phone a friend?

ffO

[stormchaser1]

An impressive call and a tick in the box from me for your first storm prediction guys. Well done.

Next up Christmas and New Year. Feeling confident? Phone a friend?

ffO

very confident

nigel

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

An impressive call and a tick in the box from me for your first storm prediction guys. Well done.

Next up Christmas and New Year. Feeling confident? Phone a friend?

ffO

Hi FFO

Thanks

yes a rollercoattser ride to come no doubt but so far we have had good verification up to now. No signals for a change so we remain on course.

BFTP

[Gavin P]

Yes, great forecast up to now guys. Well done.

Of course now it gets to the tricky part - Cold easterlies in mid to late December have been as rare as hens teeth in recent years. Good luck.

[stormchaser1]

MORNING Fred

thanks for your coment,

i will update when i get home im in asdas car park at the moment] mrs n banned me from the shops lol

nigel

its tipping it down here

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

MORNING Fred

thanks for your coment,

i will update when i get home im in asdas car park at the moment] mrs n banned me from the shops lol

nigel

its tipping it down here

Asda!!! I let it shine me

BFTP

[Iceberg]

That was the the severe winter storm was it ?. Your forecast has been OK, but that's stretching it really as winds didn't really get above 30mph for most and nowhere i can find went above 40mph, yes lots of rain but that's because the weather front stayed in the same place as the low pressure moved down from the NW.

"A severe storm is indicated as more likely than not, in the period 11th-14th, timed for the full moon at perigee which on this occasion will pretty much coincide with other strong energy peaks. So mark the calendar if not setting the watch for a strong SW to W wind event across the British Isles around the 12th-13th perhaps continuing with a second period of strong winds shortly after"

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That was the the severe winter storm was it ?. Your forecast has been OK, but that's stretching it really as winds didn't really get above 30mph for most and nowhere i can find went above 40mph, yes lots of rain but that's because the weather front stayed in the same place as the low pressure moved down from the NW.

"A severe storm is indicated as more likely than not, in the period 11th-14th, timed for the full moon at perigee which on this occasion will pretty much coincide with other strong energy peaks. So mark the calendar if not setting the watch for a strong SW to W wind event across the British Isles around the 12th-13th perhaps continuing with a second period of strong winds shortly after"

It stands up well, strong wind event was experienced, conditions were severe in parts of the UK. But I let it ride through and review at end of each month.

BFTP

Edited December 14, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[The PIT]

That was the the severe winter storm was it ?. Your forecast has been OK, but that's stretching it really as winds didn't really get above 30mph for most and nowhere i can find went above 40mph, yes lots of rain but that's because the weather front stayed in the same place as the low pressure moved down from the NW.

"A severe storm is indicated as more likely than not, in the period 11th-14th, timed for the full moon at perigee which on this occasion will pretty much coincide with other strong energy peaks. So mark the calendar if not setting the watch for a strong SW to W wind event across the British Isles around the 12th-13th perhaps continuing with a second period of strong winds shortly after"

More of rain event then strong wind event also cold not mild. So I would agree with Iceberg in stretching it somewhat. My own forecast not on here but on my own site is holding up fairly well bar one slight detail the temps. I was going for average and it's looking like we'll be below average this month.

[johnholmes]

Just to give the actual wind speeds for the two day period, 13-14 December

Courtesy of Wx Online

On the 13th there were 6 places, at low level, with gusts greater than 60mph; they were

Fair Isle(66), Capel Curig(65), Foula(62), Lerwick(61), Sumburgh(61) and Plymouth(61).

Today, so far the highest gusts are

Foula(53) and Inverbervie(52)

Edited December 14, 2008 by johnholmes

[Terminal Moraine]

I recorded several gusts between 55 and 60 mph late on the 12th and a max' gust of 63 mph around 0230 on the 13th, the mean speed briefly reached gale force (39 mph) at this time so it was certainly windy, particularly from a SE direction.

Not a damaging storm maybe but, coupled with heavy rain, it was certainly a wild night and a complete contrast to recent weeks.

[Snowyowl9]

Wind here was gale force from the south/SE even a smallish silver birch has uprooted but not fallen as it`s leaning onto another tree in the dingle I found yesterday, and torrential rain at times water table is now high to say the least.

[mountain shadow]

I think some are being harsh here, the weather over the weekend was defintely stormy in nature.

[bluearmy]

does anyone have the pressure reading for this 'winter storm'. not sure it fits into the type of depression the forecast anticipated. the wind speeds were more to do with the track of the low and the strength of the blocking to our east than the strength/deepening of the 'storm'.

Edited December 14, 2008 by bluearmy

[Polar Continental]

Below is in extract from my 09:00 report yesterday, on the previous nights weather of the 12th / 13th

It has been a stormy night with moderate to heavy rain and a strong south-to-south easterly winds gusting to 42mph, much milder though with the temperature reaching 7.9c during the early hours. At observation, moderate rain with the SE wind moderating. Rain 15.5mm

Ok, not the worst of wild weather, but still significant for this low lying area. The wind certainly kept me awake during the early hours and the sound of heavy rain lashing against the south facing widows for a couple of hours or more.

quote: bluearmy

does anyone have the pressure reading for this 'winter storm'. not sure it fits into the type of depression the forecast anticipated. the wind speeds were more to do with the track and the stength of the blocking to our east than the strength of the 'storm'.

just checked 984mb in this area

Paul

Edited December 14, 2008 by Polar Continental