December CET

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Met Office should not be subject to such derision over a little thing ike the 2008 Annual CET, even if it is a psychologically important single digit number. If it is, that is their fault not ours. Every year they take £82 million of the nation's wealth to serve us with timely forecasts and make their data available. Perhaps it would be better to give some of this money to Netweather instead? They might even make a profit.

Here's some light reading.

Met Office Framework Document (2007)

FOREWORD

By The Parliamentary Under-

Secretary of State for Defence and

Minister for Veterans, Derek Twigg

MP

I am delighted to introduce this

revised Framework Document for

the Met Office.

The work of the Met Office touches

all our lives. Its forecasts guide our

everyday decision-making, and are

crucial in protecting the public

against the effects of severe

weather. In addition, it delivers

essential services to Defence and

other parts of government, and also

to a wide range of external

customers. It leads the world in

the science of weather-forecasting

and climate-change, and plays a

key role in helping determine the

national, and indeed the

international, response to global

warming.

This Framework Document is a

development of that published

when the Met Office became a

Trading Fund in 1996. It explains

the Met Office’s purpose, vision,

and role, and the policy and other

parameters within which it

operates. It sets out the Office’s

top-level objectives, and the

governance

arrangements

established to ensure successful

delivery.

The Met Office is a vital and a

vibrant national institution, which is

respected around the world. Its

staff can take great pride in its

achievements and capabilities, and

it is a privilege for me to be its

Ministerial Owner.

. . .

1.3.Vision

Using world-class science, the Met

Office’s vision is to make its forecasts

essential to everyone, every day.

1.4.Top-Level Objectives

The overall objective of the Met Office is to

deliver value to the UK taxpayer, by using

its assets and capabilities to the benefit of

Government, the economy, the

environment and society in general. Value

is delivered to the taxpayer by:

• Providing an efficient and effective

weather service to the British public;

• Assisting and supporting other public

sector organisations in meeting their

objectives; and

• Generating profitable revenue from

commercial activities

The following paragraphs summarise the

top-level business objectives placed upon

the Met Office by the Government for the

period 2005-10. More detailed versions of

each objective can be found in Annex B.

These objectives support the delivery of

MOD’s Public Service Agreement

objectives, both by helping ensure that

current and potential future military tasks

are supported by high-quality

meteorological information, and by driving

down the costs to MOD of providing this

support. The work of the Met Office also

assists the Public Service Agreements of

other Departments; notably its world-

leading work on climate research supports

DEFRA’s objective of promoting

sustainable development in the UK and

internationally.

Underpinning the Met Office’s ability to

deliver these objectives are its strong

scientific capabilities. These are built

through its investment in facilities, skills

and research, and are reflected in its high

international scientific standing.

In meeting the objectives below as a

Trading Fund, the Met Office is required to

make a financial return at least equivalent

to the relevant cost of capital.

. . .

3.2. Dealing with the Public

The Met Office has a remit to provide the

British public at large with information

relating to the weather or climate; it aims

to respond substantively to requests for

information within ten working days.

Met Office Framework Document (pdf)

BTW, just to recap the data the Met Office has released we know in December the mean temperature in England and Wales was 3.5C and UK 3.1C.

Edited January 8, 2009 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[ribster]

Who wants headlines of plummeting temps, coldest month for.... etc when you're trying to flog GW strategies to companies and people!

Indeed, the local weather rarely if ever, mention if temps are below average, but the second they are above average boy do we hear about it!

[TEITS]

.

Come on lighten up.

Those of you old enough to be called adult behave like one.

I think you must of missed this part John from NSSC post "I think as innocent as the delay probably is".

Edited January 8, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Sorry, but not having data for Dec by the 8th is not being inefficient (in relation to post on previouis page about the METO to provide an effecitive and efficient service).

We are yet to get our Dec and 08 sales results, and these figures are rarely published to us within the first week of a month.

I would bet my bottom dollar that the data is available within the METO, but is being checked and re-checked, analysed and used for other data results.

If it cant be understood why this takes time, then I really do dispare (sp?).

I would much rather data released to be correct, then to be released incorrect, and then criticised from there.

Edited January 8, 2009 by Shiny_Bottom_1

[cheeky_monkey]

The problem with so much media attention on GW is that alot of the public will just look at things on their own doorstep. Therefore even though the uk is a tiny part of data that goes towards whether the climate is warming several cold months in a row throw peoples views off. Although of course I doubt there is anything untoward about the delay in releasing the December figure. However one does wonder what will happen to public opinion if we saw the rest of the winter cold and then the following winter also cold! in the great scheme of things these could be construed as a blip in an overall warming trend but equally the problem remains with so much invested in the industry that is now sprouting out of the concerns regarding GW what do they do! Who wants headlines of plummeting temps, coldest month for.... etc when you're trying to flog GW strategies to companies and people!

the trouble with the general public is..that when it comes to things like the weather they have the memory of a goldfish..if you asked 100 people whether november was cold warm or average..they wouldnt have a clue..also ask them whether this january is colder than last again they wouldnt know.

people quickly forget weather events or how cold or hot it is...unless it is an extreme event..how you think the express and piers corbyn get away with all their gumf year in year out?

Edited January 8, 2009 by cheeky_monkey

[shuggee]

Or it could be symptomatic of the frustration and paranoia of a handful of ultra 'cold lovers' who in their desperation to cling on to the fig leaf of a few below average months want it shouting from the roof tops - and in the emotional turmoil they find themselves in start jumping up and down and crying like 4 yr olds because one set of figures is a couple of days late...

Or as in that episode of Family Guy when Peter announces he's religous - he suddenly states he 'doesn't believe in gravity'.

As Davina would say 'You decide'.

[gmoran]

Do the Metoffice really need to delay the December temperature to disguise a cold month in a warming climate, when it's happening around the world regardless of the final figure? The UK is a small area, the majority of the world had a warm December and very warm year.

I'm not sure where you are getting your data here? HADCRUT3 clearly shows that 2008 GMST continues the cooling trend (.321'C to Nov) since 2005, each year being subsequently cooler than the previous and now on the edge of the 95% confidence intervals (2*SD of residuals 1975-2007). If this continues in 2009 it will be unarguable that the GCMs are missing something. Anyone pointing to a linear regression of the data, or failing to account for the high correlation between adjacent years in GMST, is either unaware of the subtleties or is willfully misrepresenting.

It will be interesting to see what the final HADCRUT3 figure is for the year but it won't significantly change from what it is currently, both RSS and UAH anomalies are in and are down on November and demonstrate that December was not warm in comparison to recent trends.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Or it could be symptomatic of the frustration and paranoia of 'cold lovers' who in their desperation to cling on to the fig leaf of a few below average months want it shouting from the roof tops - and in the emotional turmoil they find themselves in start jumping up and down and crying like 4 yr olds because one set of figures is a couple of days late...

Or as in that episode of Family Guy when Peter announces he's religous - he suddenly states he 'doesn't believe in gravity'.

As Davina would say 'You decide'.

You know what I really think?

You are doing some of those 'cold lovers' quite a disservice by misrepresenting what is being said, but most of all insulting their intelligence....

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I'm not sure where you are getting your data here? HADCRUT3 clearly shows that 2008 GMST continues the cooling trend (.321'C to Nov) since 2005, each year being subsequently cooler than the previous and now on the edge of the 95% confidence intervals (2*SD of residuals 1975-2007). If this continues in 2009 it will be unarguable that the GCMs are missing something. Anyone pointing to a linear regression of the data, or failing to account for the high correlation between adjacent years in GMST, is either unaware of the subtleties or is willfully misrepresenting.

It will be interesting to see what the final HADCRUT3 figure is for the year but it won't significantly change from what it is currently, both RSS and UAH anomalies are in and are down on November and demonstrate that December was not warm in comparison to recent trends.

Hope this helps:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20081216.html

10th warmest on record for 2008.

You know what I really think?

You are doing some of those 'cold lovers' quite a disservice by misrepresenting what is being said, but most of all insulting their intelligence....

To be fair to Shugs Tamara, I dont think it would just be Shugs who would have misread if that were the case. There have been suggestions of some sort of cover up...Thats not down to intelligence, but down to trying to read into something that isnt there.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

How do we know the undoubted delay (now 8 days) is innocent? To say it is innocent is to make a claim in the absence of fact. It commits the ad verecundiam fallacy, an appeal to respect authority outside one's realm and nothing more. Where is the Met Office press release on this delay?

As for the popular opinion, here is a recent news clipping from a Belgium paper.

Title reads (in Dutch translator): Let us all stop underhand stuff

Edited January 8, 2009 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[johnholmes]

look folks

can we just draw a line before this thread becomes really quite silly.

The release of the data is, as someone above suggests, nothing out of the ordinary, a % of the sites needed for corroboration have probably like some on this site been off/away for Xmas into New Year, so collecting all the last week of data ain't easy, I know that from my own Met O experience.

No plot, no cover up, so why raise the damn thing in the first place.

It will be released once the figures have been checked and verified, sod all to do with trying to make out its something to do with GW not happening or anything else.

PLEASE let's just wait for their figures quietly, in the meantime data is available for 'provisional' figures on the Met O site, and also on the site run by Philip Eden.

Edited January 8, 2009 by johnholmes

[Paul]

Do you know what, I think it's time to lock this thread - there's nothing more that can be added until the figures are released.

[Bottesford]

In case there's any misunderstanding - this thread has been closed due to the number of off topic posts and the lack of anything to actually debate until the figures are released.

It will be reopened the moment those edge of your seat stats come out.

Thanks all!

[Paul]

Just as an update to this, Shiny_Bottom (Chris), contacted the Met-Office and this is their response:

I have made enquiries with our Hadley Centre staff who generate the CET data for the website and as far as I can assertain, there are some issues with some of the data, so it is a little late being published. I have not been given any indicated timescale for the data, so I would advise to keep watching the website and we will get it updated just as soon as possible.