Is This Winter Going To Go Pear Shaped

[North-Easterly Blast]

There are a number of forecasts suggesting the run of average to mild winters will continue again this year - however, some forecasts including the Met Office forecast are suggesting a colder December than recent years. This again suggests to me that the winter will go pear shaped - with January and February by and large another disaster. In the last 20 years we have seen so many winters where there has been relatively average and varied conditions during December and then January and February pretty much devoid of cold wintry spells. In fact, there has been none or very little warming in December in the last two decades and a massive warming trend in January and February - it remains a puzzling fact.

This winter is being largely forecasted yet another pear shaped one - Consider these examples.

Winter 2001-02: A cold December overall - 3.6, dominated by high pressure and a few northerly outbreaks and a cold spell which lasted into the New Year - then it all went horribly wrong and the most of January and all February was a disaster.

Winter 1996-97: This was totally and utterly unforgettable - a cold December dominated by cold, easterly weather and a pretty intense cold spell late in the month (although not a lot of snow) which lasted until 10th January 1997, then it went belly up and February and March were very mild.

Winter 1944-45: A cold December with a cold spell late on leading into a very cold January, then it all went horribly wrong and February and March were very mild.

Winter 1981-82: A truly exceptional December, very cold and snowy, with a further intense cold spell before mid Jan 1982, then it fizzled out with a fairly mild February, although not as mild as 2002, 1997, 1945.

I do not know whether I could stand a repeat of 1996-97 or 2001-02 - those second halves of those winters in particular, and also both in the even larger teapot era, were big let downs after a promising December.

[chionomaniac]

If the met office forecast a cold December and warmer Jan and Feb and that is what happens then it will have hardly gone pear shaped - if anything the forecast will be spot on, no matter how much us coldies would prefer otherwise. To even have this discussion before winter has even started is farcical in my opinion. Anyway I sincerely hope Jan and Feb buck the recent trend and deliver some good cold spells so that come March you won't be the depths of despair!

[andy_leics22]

I think colder Decembers leading to milder January's and February's have no real connection. I think the UK winter is just purely a random occurance that you cannot really predict months in advance with any real accuracy.

[nodrog]

I think its getting to the point where its going to be one of those winters where our cold winter weather will be affected by the atlantic LP's.

What I mean is after the LP's skirt about us we then will have cold periods between the next Lp's.

This is what I see, and obviously depending on the direction and strength of the Lp's will result in the "Winteryness of any cooler periods".

I feel we will have a bit of both types, and as we approach mid/late winter the cold periods may, I say may produce some nice white events, but short lived. This stands for both the East and West of the Uk but around Feb to March 09.

Its still to early to expect a long cold period with the helping of snow, we are looking for to much to happen and take place right now.

I dont want to eat my words but I see a pattern falling here from cold to mild, and as we venture further into winter the snow fall risk is increasing.

Now if my theroy is slightly right, after the mild period for mid Dec to pass we should again experience a colder period just before the Christmas. Either for the East or West. Also when Ive been wacthing to weather occur around this period be it Gales or Cold periods, it also repeats one week later, ie: S-Gales of 96/96 then S-Gales of 99-00, and about the same period of 2002 Just after a cooling period?

Now in 2005 we had a mild Jan with some very strong gales I think topped 100mph, always near New Years eve, followed by a cooling period inc wide spred of snow fall, again. (Catch my drift?)

I know the charts are early and the Atlantic is holding out a bit but following the charts, they may of been showing similar strong patterns of the previous winter activity but the building cold spell has spoiled the otherwise more possible factual runs hence this period of confusion?

Again, Im only stil wet behind my ears and very "old-school" ie not wanting to take note of any longwave or long range forecast other than countryfile on a sunday but it's a free world and that my reasoning. Pls dont have a go at me.

Ta.

Edited November 26, 2008 by MetmanFlash

[Diane_W]

I think its getting to the point where its going to be one of those winters where our cold winter weather will be affected by the atlantic LP's.

What I mean is after the LP's skirt about us we then will have cold periods between the next Lp's.

This is what I see, and obviously depending on the direction and strength of the Lp's will result in the "Winteryness of any cooler periods".

I feel we will have a bit of both types, and as we approach mid/late winter the cold periods may, I say may produce some nice white events, but short lived. This stands for both the East and West of the Uk but around Feb to March 09.

Its still to early to expect a long cold period with the helping of snow, we are looking for to much to happen and take place right now.

I dont want to eat my words but I see a pattern falling here from cold to mild, and as we venture further into winter the snow fall risk is increasing.

Now if my theroy is slightly right, after the mild period for mid Dec to pass we should again experience a colder period just before the Christmas. Either for the East or West. Also when Ive been wacthing to weather occur around this period be it Gales or Cold periods, it also repeats one week later, ie: S-Gales of 96/96 then S-Gales of 99-00, and about the same period of 2002 Just after a cooling period?

Now in 2005 we had a mild Jan with some very strong gales I think topped 100mph, always near New Years eve, followed by a cooling period inc wide spred of snow fall, again. (Catch my drift?)

I know the charts are early and the Atlantic is holding out a bit but following the charts, they may of been showing similar strong patterns of the previous winter activity but the building cold spell has spoiled the otherwise more possible factual runs hence this period of confusion?

Again, Im only stil wet behind my ears and very "old-school" ie not wanting to take note of any longwave or long range forecast other than countryfile on a sunday but it's a free world and that my reasoning. Pls dont have a go at me.

Ta.

I actually understood some of that, a first for me, thanks.

[cheeky_monkey]

There are a number of forecasts suggesting the run of average to mild winters will continue again this year - however, some forecasts including the Met Office forecast are suggesting a colder December than recent years. This again suggests to me that the winter will go pear shaped - with January and February by and large another disaster. In the last 20 years we have seen so many winters where there has been relatively average and varied conditions during December and then January and February pretty much devoid of cold wintry spells. In fact, there has been none or very little warming in December in the last two decades and a massive warming trend in January and February - it remains a puzzling fact.

This winter is being largely forecasted yet another pear shaped one - Consider these examples.

Winter 2001-02: A cold December overall - 3.6, dominated by high pressure and a few northerly outbreaks and a cold spell which lasted into the New Year - then it all went horribly wrong and the most of January and all February was a disaster.

Winter 1996-97: This was totally and utterly unforgettable - a cold December dominated by cold, easterly weather and a pretty intense cold spell late in the month (although not a lot of snow) which lasted until 10th January 1997, then it went belly up and February and March were very mild.

Winter 1944-45: A cold December with a cold spell late on leading into a very cold January, then it all went horribly wrong and February and March were very mild.

Winter 1981-82: A truly exceptional December, very cold and snowy, with a further intense cold spell before mid Jan 1982, then it fizzled out with a fairly mild February, although not as mild as 2002, 1997, 1945.

I do not know whether I could stand a repeat of 1996-97 or 2001-02 - those second halves of those winters in particular, and also both in the even larger teapot era, were big let downs after a promising December.

i dont think 44-45 & 81-82 are fair examples..both had sustained very cold snowy periods we can only dream of today...the same can be said for dec and jan being very mild follwed by a very cold feb saying thats winter wasted to????

[Thundery wintry showers]

I agree, it does seem like winters of totally different quality are being lumped together.

2001/02- a northerly on 8/9 November, some northerlies in the last third of December with snow for some, then mild after New Year

1996/97- northerly around 18-24 November, easterlies at end of December, lying snow for upwards of 10 consecutive days in parts of eastern England, mild weather arrived for February

1981/82- exceptionally cold snowy December, varied January with exceptional cold snowy spell in the first half, mild weather arrived late January

1944/45- exceptionally cold snowy January, exceptionally mild February

2001/02 was a letdown for nearly all, 1996/97 for most, but 1981/82 and 1944/45 not so. Most members on here- even including some of those who prefer mild weather like Mushymanrob- would be happy with something similar to 1981/82- a memorable winter, and a pretty good spring followed as well.

The weather of December has little bearing on the coming winter. December 1995 was very cold- temperatures some 4C below normal in Glasgow- but then after a mild first half of January, cold wintry weather was then frequent between 25 January and 26 February- and all three spring months of 1996 had localised snowfalls. Or try some of the cold Decembers of the 1960s- 1962, 1967, 1968, 1969, those were hardly followed by mild snowless winters.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I agree, it does seem like winters of totally different quality are being lumped together.

2001/02- a northerly on 8/9 November, some northerlies in the last third of December with snow for some, then mild after New Year

1996/97- northerly around 18-24 November, easterlies at end of December, lying snow for upwards of 10 consecutive days in parts of eastern England, mild weather arrived for February

1981/82- exceptionally cold snowy December, varied January with exceptional cold snowy spell in the first half, mild weather arrived late January

1944/45- exceptionally cold snowy January, exceptionally mild February

2001/02 was a letdown for nearly all, 1996/97 for most, but 1981/82 and 1944/45 not so. Most members on here- even including some of those who prefer mild weather like Mushymanrob- would be happy with something similar to 1981/82- a memorable winter, and a pretty good spring followed as well.

The weather of December has little bearing on the coming winter. December 1995 was very cold- temperatures some 4C below normal in Glasgow- but then after a mild first half of January, cold wintry weather was then frequent between 25 January and 26 February- and all three spring months of 1996 had localised snowfalls. Or try some of the cold Decembers of the 1960s- 1962, 1967, 1968, 1969, those were hardly followed by mild snowless winters.

I was not meaning that Winter 1981-82 was a letdown at all, it was just an example of where a very cold December and first half of January was followed by a second half of winter that was nothing special - although Feb 1982 was far less mild than Febs 1997, 2002 and 1945. I'd take a Winter 1981-82 anyday, I only had to point out that Winter 1944-45 saw the largest ever increase in CET from January to February on record, a prime example of where a great first half of winter was followed by an obscene February and March.

I am pointing out that in recent years we have seen two cold Decembers - 1996 and 2001 that have led to winters going horribly wrong and having disastrously mild second halves, that is what two cold Decembers in the even larger teapot era have led to. So, if this December is colder than recent years, I just could not stand a repeat of 2001-02 or 1996-97.

[cheeky_monkey]

I was not meaning that Winter 1981-82 was a letdown at all, it was just an example of where a very cold December and first half of January was followed by a second half of winter that was nothing special - although Feb 1982 was far less mild than Febs 1997, 2002 and 1945. I'd take a Winter 1981-82 anyday, I only had to point out that Winter 1944-45 saw the largest ever increase in CET from January to February on record, a prime example of where a great first half of winter was followed by an obscene February and March.

march is a spring month so in terms of winter it dosnt count..therefore winter 44-45 with one of the coldest and snowiest janauries of the 20th century..would outstrip anything we have seen in the last 25yrs!

[johnholmes]

and there is absolutely no statistical eveidence, either in the last 10-15 years, nor over any time period with reliable records, that December is any indicator of January or February.

There are always exceptions for and against.