Snow Watch Thread For Midlands & C Southern England

[Blizzard]

Check out the 11:30 radar... all precip disappears... love it when it does that lol!!

http://www.meteox.fr

No one has a sneak peak at Netweather radar do they?

Edited February 4, 2009 by Blizzard

[andy_leics22]

Ok.....I 've had a good look at the Gfs18z, and thought, 'what the hell...time for my first ever public forecast'

My take on the snow event is as follows:

An area of rain/sleet currently developing over the South Western parts of the country will push north, turning to snow as it does so....Areas affected in the overnight period will include mid-wales, Gloucestershire, Worcestshire, Shropshire, Staffs and part of Cheshire...For areas south and east of a line say from Cardiff and Nottingham , conditions look marginal for snow and the further south one goes, rain is the more likely....Conversley, a frontal occlusion currently over Scotland will make steady overnight progress SSEwards, the area where these frontal boundaries meet is where the potential for significant snowfall is greatest....Tomorrow.....The area for marginal precip will push slightly further north & west....Areas south and east of a line through worcestershire to East Staffs will probably see a transition from snow to a sleety mix during the daytime/evening hours on Thursday into friday daytime....Friday evening, the whole area of precip starts to slip South Eastwards with cold air undercutting the back edge of the retreating front causing any precip to turn to all snow during the evening period....The areas, in my eyes, likely to be affected the most by snow, naturally, will be areas to the north and west of these 'transition zones' My guess being mid/north Wales, Cheshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire and North Worcestershire....

Phew, my fingers are ready to drop off! .....and there you have it, my first ever forecast.....Feedback would be appreciated!

Cheers

AJ

A quick edit....A lot of members seem concerned about the current rain down south to be missing us...I'm pretty much sure that this is not the precip area to be worried....The snow event for the West Midlands area has not developed yet, and will not develope until the occlusion from the north,and the warm front down south meet

Hey AJ, cool forecast mate, I think it is pretty accurate but there is a few points which I don't agree with... The first one is that the main band of precip over Southern England now will make it as far West as South Wales, it MAY reach Mid Wales but it will have to swing round considerably to reach there and right now it's showing no signs of shifting from it's current straight North track.

Have you based your forecast on looking at the latest GFS snow risk charts aswell? The UKMO charts disagree with the GFS slightly because the UKMO charts suggest heavy snowfall for areas as far East as Northampton and Leicestershire/Rutland and Nottingham. Ground temps tomorrow through the whole day in Leicestershire, Rutland, Coventry, Nottingham, Derby aren't forecast to get above 1 or 2c all day, could be snow for a longer period than the GFS says.

West Midlands still looks most at risk though as you say..They have the biggest potential in the next 12 hours. The band of precip thats over Southern counties now is defanitly the main band, so this is the one we are going to be keeping an eye on

[ISAAC]

even if it does turn to sleet , its only brief trust me , temp progged at 0c in brum 2morrow at 15;00, so would readily turn back to snow in the evening time

plus remember evaporative cooling, lying snow will have effect on air temperatures

[Hammer]

Seems to happen at crucial times. Perhaps government conspiracy.

Check out the 11:30 radar... all precip disappears... love it when it does that lol!!

http://www.meteox.fr

[laheymichele]

hi everybody!!! is there still any chance for the north midlands?(stoke on trent) because the gfs have it over my area at 6:00am till around 12:00pm and the meto have a warning but no flash warnings on their site!!!so confused now and after all have got my hopes up xx

[A.J]

Hey AJ, cool forecast mate, I think it is pretty accurate but there is a few points which I don't agree with... The first one is that the main band of precip over Southern England now will make it as far West as South Wales, it MAY reach Mid Wales but it will have to swing round considerably to reach there and right now it's showing no signs of shifting from it's current straight North track.

Have you based your forecast on looking at the latest GFS snow risk charts aswell? The UKMO charts disagree with the GFS slightly because the UKMO charts suggest heavy snowfall for areas as far East as Northampton and Leicestershire/Rutland and Nottingham. Ground temps tomorrow through the whole day in Leicestershire, Rutland, Coventry, Nottingham, Derby aren't forecast to get above 1 or 2c all day, could be snow for a longer period than the GFS says.

West Midlands still looks most at risk though as you say..They have the biggest potential in the next 12 hours. The band of precip thats over Southern counties now is defanitly the main band, so this is the one we are going to be keeping an eye on

Cheers Andy & Cher, feedbackmost appreciated...I've gone by the 18Z Gfs and NMM UK Model....They were prob the most accurate during last sunday/ monday....I've paid particular attn to precip rate, uppers and DP's.....The Gfs is throwing it further north and west than UKMO, but living in staffs currently, I'm somewhat biased towards Gfs tonight mate...

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Just looked out window. Have a wee covering of snow out there. Just a nice dusting. But a complete suprise! Must have been well marginal that one!

You need to move a little West Beka, we had loads last night the village up the road had over 4 inches on top of Mondays and Amesbury, Salisbury, Warminster had it bad. I drove to Amesbury this morning in some of the worst road conditions I've seen in years and the A343 Andover to Salisbury was shut for one large section after a contractor forgot to grit it last night so it's been sheet ice all day

Blimy! I have been missing out!

[ISAAC]

hi everybody!!! is there still any chance for the north midlands?(stoke on trent) because the gfs have it over my area at 6:00am till around 12:00pm and the meto have a warning but no flash warnings on their site!!!so confused now and after all have got my hopes up xx

i tell u what, if any precipiation does fall it will be snow so thats one good news but i dot think the heaviest band will get anywhere near you, maybe not even here in brum. however later on on thursday i think you are in the firing line.

[MidlandsSean]

Yeah I must admit some people are doing absolutely brilliant. Sharing information and their personal opinions, to name a few Andy obviously. (I'd also like to thank Shaun for replying to my post)

Seems to be an exciting few hours. I think I will be getting up very early. According to a post on another forum (which they said was mentioned in central news) Birmingham Councils are meeting at 6am to discuss school closures. Probably a bit hasty after what happened with the event tuesday (which actually gave me snowfall till about 11pm..) and waiting for visible evidence.

Edited February 4, 2009 by MidlandsSean

[andy_leics22]

Cheers Andy & Cher, feedbackmost appreciated...I've gone by the 18Z Gfs and NMM UK Model....They were prob the most accurate during last sunday/ monday....I've paid particular attn to precip rate, uppers and DP's.....The Gfs is throwing it further north and west than UKMO, but living in staffs currently, I'm somewhat biased towards Gfs tonight mate...

I don't think you are wrong about that, Staffs will probably get worst hit I think my chances for snow between 3am and 9am are good though, lets be honest 4-6 hours of snowfall will leave something good even if it does turn to sleet and rain as the day goes on for Leicester.

Current temp is -1 ad the dew point is -4 here, the precip is only about 2 hours away!

[MKN]

if this stays as intense as it is now 1 hour from now il be very interested in this lol, looking like a direct hit of heavy precip

[*Stormforce~beka*]

ust to send people further north over the edge, the flakes are the size of beer mats!

Hahahahahhahaa!!!

[PurpleFizz]

Bring on the snow! Its started to get colder here.....ive got the window open

[*Stormforce~beka*]

getting rather silly snowing quite hard here again on the hampshire wiltshire border was this in tonights script

Silly?! Enjoy it you plonka!! Lol.

[wallopweather]

k, best of luck everyone, hope you all get what you've wished for. Seen my snowfall for tonight so time for a few zzzzzzz!

[WestMidlandsWeather]

Still on course to hit Walsall in North Birmingham?

I was watching Liverpool vs Everton!

The news afterwards looked promising..no weather warnings? But could be twice as bad as Monday!

[Pixel]

Seems to happen at crucial times. Perhaps government conspiracy.

:unsure:

Dr Drax at it again !

Pressure991,(falling) -1c, 89% Hygro and nothing round the lampost - yet - cmon' radar - hits monitor with large ruler!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Yeah I must admit some people are doing absolutely brilliant. Sharing information and their personal opinions, to name a few Andy obviously. (I'd also like to thank Shaun for replying to my post)

Seems to be an exciting few hours. I think I will be getting up very early. According to a post on another forum (which they said was mentioned in central news) Birmingham Councils are meeting at 6am to discuss school closures. Probably a bit hasty after what happened with the event tuesday (which actually gave me snowfall till about 11pm..) and waiting for visible evidence.

thankyou thats nice of u! im feeling very good about this , iv never seen red with in snow bands b4, even blue on radars give good snow ppn!!!!!!

[A.J]

Well, thats me done...I'm off to 'the land of nod'....I've got that horrible drive to look forward to in the morning....Thanks to Andy-leics for input tonight...Cheers mate! :unsure:

Happy ramping everyone

[MKN]

thankyou thats nice of u! im feeling very good about this , iv never seen red with in snow bands b4, even blue on radars give good snow ppn!!!!!!

blues tend to be smaller flakes that take forever to mount up, the greens upwards are what you want oranges and reds are where things are interesting. Im somewhat sceptical how much precip of that intensity there will be time it reaches here though

its definately dying out a tad atm.

Edited February 5, 2009 by SnowTornado

[Shezale coventry]

just seen my local forecast for coventry on metoffice and bbc sites they say heavy snow will arrive at 3 am till 12 am then turning to sleet then at 18.00 thursday eve to 21.00 heavy snow agen is this true or shall i take this with a pinch of salt

[flyer]

Just watchrd the weather forecast from Jay Wynne and 8" for Glocs with 1 - 2 for Derby area

Rain for southampton but hopefully here 30 miles north might just keep the white stuff .

Still snowing heavy unbelievable 2 " in the past hour . Better than the last hit

Flyer

[andy_leics22]

Well, thats me done...I'm off to 'the land of nod'....I've got that horrible drive to look forward to in the morning....Thanks to Andy-leics for input tonight...Cheers mate!

Happy ramping everyone

Take care mate, safe journey

[PurpleFizz]

so like, is Birmingham definately getting the snow? Im going to dream of snow tonight, thats if i ever get to sleep

I dont have a clue about all this forecasting stuff so im just going on what all you lovely people are saying!

[andy_leics22]

just seen my local forecast for coventry on metoffice and bbc sites they say heavy snow will arrive at 3 am till 12 am then turning to sleet then at 18.00 thursday eve to 21.00 heavy snow agen is this true or shall i take this with a pinch of salt

It's hard to forecast this. it's very borderline for Cov, Leicester, Nottingham and Derby. It may do as they say, all I know is... Expect some heavy snow between 3 and 7am this morning!

Latest radar pic looks beautiful...