Storm Chase 2009 - Day 10 Discussion

[chionomaniac]

It has, but for the hail risk (from 45% to 30%) rather than tornado risk which remains at 10%.

I thought it had - but good to see the tornado risk still at 10% .

When I look at the live streaming, come off that page and then back on again, it speeds up like time lapse photography. Presently that is a great help at watching how the clouds are forming. It looks like the cap is still strong with small cumulus clouds forming but quickly dissolving. Fingers crossed that the lid on the pressure cooker wobbles soon!

[maidstone weather]

they're off to somewhere

[Nick F]

Looks like they are heading east atm, cu field developing to the SE of their position atm though around Anson N of Abilene - maybe something may develop around there:

[Paul]

Looks like they are holding fire just east of Aspermont at the moment.

[Nick F]

Looking at hourly 0-1km shear vectors and helicity values - N central TX around DFW seems to be favourable for turning of winds for tornadic development - as per SPC 10% tornado box ... as others have mentioned - could be some nados in the metroplex area later if storms move into that area - wouldn't wanna be chasing them there though. Where the team are is right on the western edge of most favourable low-level winds.

[Tony Gilbert]

The low level shear in the projected region is in reality emphasized by turning within the lowest layer. Such conditions are often overlooked by the basic 0-1 & 0-3km shear readings which may be bias toward vertical speed shear increase!

By way of opinion I see the risk of tornadoes on a local scale much higher than 10% ATM

This condition probably noticed by Nick also as per his post

Edited May 5, 2009 by Tony Gilbert

[Arron]

Are those charts from NW-extra Nick? As I've had a hunt around for them and can't find them. Still learning about these setups!

Edited May 5, 2009 by Smokes

[Nick F]

The low level shear in the projected region is in reality emphasized by turning within the lowest layer. Such conditions are often overlooked by the basic 0-1 & 0-3km shear readings which may be bias toward vertical speed shear increase!

By way of opinion I see the risk of tornadoes on a local scale much higher than 10% ATM

I agree, I tend to look at 0-3km helicity also in combination with 0-1km wind shear - as below, some good turning along the warm front boundary over Nern TX:

Are those charts from NW-extra Nick? As I've had a hunt around for them and can't find them. Still learning about these setups!

No, they are SPC's hourly mesoscale analysis, which can be found through here:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...es.php?sector=5

[Nick F]

Cu field becoming more pronounced/agitated close to Hwy 180 between Anson and Breckenridge, could be start of something trying to break the cap. Does seem to be reports of 'turkey towers' in this area, maybe one will breach soon ...

Here we go, SPC think intiation soon maybe for area above:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0513 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 052213Z - 052315Z

TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED SHORTLY FOR PART OF THE BIG COUNTRY

AND NCNTRL TX.

TSTM INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT IN AREAS JUST NE OF KABI ALONG THE

NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. 20Z FWD SOUNDING WAS

CAPPED...BUT MODIFYING FOR AN 88/65 PARCEL YIELDS NO CAP AND OVER

3000 J/KG MLCAPE. EXPECT STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND AROUND 60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR.

FCST STORM MOTION OF 280-300 AT 20 KTS WOULD TAKE THE STORMS ALONG/S

OF THE WRMFNT LOCATED ALONG I-20...MAINTAINING VERY BUOYANT INFLOW.

VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN IMPACTING AT LEAST PARTS OF WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF

THE DFW METROPLEX BY MID-EVENING.

[Paul]

Team are on the move....

[Gorky]

Looks like a cell going up near Breckenridge.

[Nick F]

Yes, amongst the radar clutter of the Abilene radar, there does appear to be a cell close to Breckenridge. Might be worth the team heading SE down the 183 when they get to Throckmorton.

[nsrobins]

Looks like the corks off the bottle. Unfortunately I'm still 'in' Guthrie but am making tracks east :blush:

Good luck chaps - there may only be a few discrete cells as they drift east but what there is could be major.

[Gorky]

Tops to 47.5k already, with a 50dbz core. This is erupting very quickly.

Edited May 5, 2009 by Gorky

[Paul]

Looks like they've hung a right in throckmorton to head down towards breckenridge

[Gorky]

The cell is struggling slightly to get properly rooted. After the first initial burst, it's not improved in appearance much. I think the cap is still causing it some problems. Lets hope it overcomes this :blush:

[Nick F]

About 5 cars that stream on tornadovideos.net close to the storm NE of Breckenridge, including Reed Timmer of course, though none are streaming atm.

Got a good inflow tail apparently according to someone reporting from close to the storm ...

Our team should hopefully catch up with - though it does seem to be shifting east quicker than I'd expect.

[Mammatus]

Nice view of the CB's on live streaming :blush:

Edited May 5, 2009 by Seasons

[Sno' problem]

Just started watching things. All the storm chasers seem to be congregating aroung that cell near Breckenridge, so they must expect things to happen there.

Need an early(ish) night, so it would be great if things continue to build there.

[Muffelchen]

Doesn't look too clever on radar at the mo - sort of linear.....

[Gorky]

Looks like the cell has pretty much died... Maybe outflow from this cell will trigger new development further back along the front?

[Muffelchen]

Good, steady stream from Craig Curlee at the mo although he waiting someway East of the action. It may all be dead by the time it reaches him though.....

Cell East of Breckenridge is now definately a gonner. However, there might just be the beginnings of something behind it (under the Breckenridge label).

[Paul]

I think the team are currently sat in breckenridge

[Nick F]

Looks like there is a new cell going up over Breckenridge, team maybe sat under it ...

[Muffelchen]

Looks like there is a new cell going up over Breckenridge, team maybe sat under it ...

It's all about Location, Location, Location.... :blush: