Chase 2009 Day 13 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Will Refine a Chase Target later today as we need to Haul ass down to DFW

Not looking Great for Tornadoes Today and LARGE HAIL Seems the Primary Threat if Supercells can Overcome the Cap!!

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1251 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE S CNTRL

PLAINS THRU LWR OH AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS....

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS INDICATE THAT SEASONABLY STRONG FLOW WILL PERSIST IN A

BROAD...GENERALLY ZONAL BELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TIER OF

THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THIS REGIME APPEARS

LIKELY TO REMAIN BROADLY CYCLONIC AT MID-LEVELS...SOME INCREASE IN

AMPLITUDE APPEARS POSSIBLE AT UPPER LEVELS. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING

MAY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AS LOW AMPLITUDE

TROUGHING SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRIMARY

HIGH LEVEL JET CORE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. GUIDANCE IS

SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE

WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO

THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A

COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS

...HAS ALREADY RETURNED NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/

SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND...THE EVOLVING

PATTERN SEEMS LIKELY TO FAVOR INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE LEVELS

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES.

HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN

FOCUSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF WARM CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED

LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S./MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS COULD BECOME QUITE EXTENSIVE FAIRLY

EARLY IN THE DAY...ULTIMATELY LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF

THE MAIN COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.

...OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THE LWR OH/TN VALLEYS...

STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE SHIFTING EAST OF THE

CENTRAL ROCKIES IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE

IMAGERY...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. THIS

APPEARS TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE STRONG SIGNAL AMONG MODEL DATA

SUGGESTING THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM

NEAR/NORTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY 12Z THIS MORNING.

IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP

LAYER SHEAR...A SEVERE RISK IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL IS

EXPECTED TO CARRY OVER BEYOND DAYBREAK. BUT...OF SIGNIFICANT

CONCERN TO CONTINUING SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IS

SUBSTANTIAL FORECAST WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AMONG SOME MODEL

GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF AND 07/12Z ECMWF. IF THIS OCCURS...A

CORRESPONDING WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY

ENSUE...ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT

ACROSS MUCH OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND

TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

HOWEVER...MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OR

GENERATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER

EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS DURING THE

AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND AT

LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE

ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG...REGENERATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT

APPEARS PROBABLE. PROGGED STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB

FLOW ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD YIELD

LARGE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES

IN MORE DISCRETE ACTIVITY. BUT...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE

EXPECTED TO BE A MORE PROMINENT THREAT AS STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVE.

IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT MAY

REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF THE ANTICIPATED MESOSCALE

CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AT ITS EARLY MORNING STRENGTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE

DAY. IF THIS BECOMES THE CASE...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE

OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO TENNESSEE VALLEYS MAY BE

CONSIDERABLY GREATER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE CATEGORICAL

OUTLOOK.

...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE S CNTRL PLAINS...

A STALLING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...AND A

PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE...ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR

POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO EXTREME POTENTIAL

INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT LOWER/MID

TROPOSPHERIC INHIBITION WILL BE AN ISSUE...GIVEN SOMEWHAT

WEAK/UNCERTAIN MID-LEVEL FORCING. AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY

SCATTERED STORM INITIATION DOES APPEAR PROBABLE FOLLOWING PEAK

AFTERNOON HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE

SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WEAKENING OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW

BY AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT TORNADIC POTENTIAL...DESPITE POTENTIALLY

FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...BUT STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE

OF AT LEAST PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG DAMAGING

WIND GUSTS.

[A.J]

Will Refine a Chase Target later today as we need to Haul ass down to DFW

Spoken like a true American....lol

Did you end up in Northern Oklahoma last night?....There are big storms associated with the warm front over NE OK & SE Nebraska borders

[Paul Sherman]

Yep dont go there. We changed our booking from Ardmore to Perry to try and get the Hotel Slammed this Morning but it missed us by about 12 Miles to our North and East.

Luck of the draw with a SE Moving Cold Front! Think Steve and Martin were right underneath it though in El Dorado (Ks)

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

MODERATE Risk Issued mainly for the Wind Risk over Misery and Arkansas

Still looks like we will go for the Red River Target area at this stage

Paul S

[NL]

Update from SPC have moderate chance, shame its in Missouri (Misery..)

SPC AC 081209

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0709 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX INTO THE OH

VALLEY...

...DERECHO IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR...

...MID MS VALLEY...

MATURE BOW ECHO NOW OVER SOUTHWEST MO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN

INTENSITY AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND

NORTHERN AR THROUGH THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE

BEING REPORTED WITH THIS BOW...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST AS

FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER. FROM THERE EASTWARD...FORECAST IS MORE

UNCERTAIN DUE TO EFFECTS OF NOCTURNAL MCS THAT TRACKED ACROSS KY/TN

OVERNIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING

WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS MO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH

REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN KY/TN...WHERE LOW LEVEL

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE STRONGER.

...TX/OK/AR/LA THIS AFTERNOON...

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE ARE FORECAST THIS

AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN

OK INTO NORTH TX. MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE

ALONG THIS AXIS...BUT A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY

PERSIST. A COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE

BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS

FROM WEST OF DFW TO FSM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR

PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY

OVER OK PORTION OF AREA. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE

POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS.

...VA/NC...

REMNANTS OF MCS OVER KY/TN WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING

AND MOVE ACROSS NC/VA THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND SUFFICIENTLY

UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS

WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE IN A FEW STORMS. AT THIS

TIME...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO MORE CLOUD

COVER AND WEAKER INSTABILITY THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.

...IA/IL...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN

DAKOTAS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT IA THIS

AFTERNOON. RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODERATELY STEEP

LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL THIS

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 05/08/2009

Wide area for 5% chance of tornadoes all the way into Oklahoma,NE Texas.

Ha ha beat me to it there Paul.!

Tornado warnings already issued for SW Missouri, Springfield area.

129

WFUS53 KSGF 081304

TORSGF

MOC077-081400-

/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0031.090508T1304Z-090508T1400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

804 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

* AT 803 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR REPUBLIC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

BATTLEFIELD BY 815 AM CDT.

SPRINGFIELD BY 825 AM CDT.

STRAFFORD BY 840 AM CDT.

8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIR GROVE BY 845 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF GALLOWAY...TURNERS AND BASSVILLE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF

THIS TORNADIC STORM. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE

MARKERS 66 AND 90.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.

Edited May 8, 2009 by NL

[nsrobins]

Lovely looking bow and derecho slamming MO now - hence the MOD risk by SPC. It seems to be spinning up on occasion but mainly SLWs of around 70mph and hail.

Paul - I agree with the Red River target from 23Z and within reach from DFW, pending delays and immigration, etc. Given your pick-ups I'd stay south but on a crossing path and for that purpose Wichta F looks ideal.

Edit: Just had a gander at the 12Z NAM and I'm really liking the easing off of CIN over the target. It's been cap or bust lately and I'm keen to weight this particular parameter more heavily, especially as juice, etc is a given at the moment. Also look at the bullseye of 550 SRH (0-3) just N of Wichita F over the river. From my inexperienced perspective I reckon numbers look more favourable today than the previous two.

Edited May 8, 2009 by nsrobins

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

American adverts at the start of the stream

[Paul]

I'm guessing you're meaning the night at the museum ad, it's for a film and is narrated by an american but it is for the UK as it's being released here soon.

Unfortunately with the high cost of bandwidth, the ads are vital to allow us to use video freely on the site and only last 15 seconds while the stream is connecting, so hopefully not too annoying..

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I'm guessing you're meaning the night at the museum ad, it's for a film and is narrated by an american but it is for the UK as it's being released here soon.

Unfortunately with the high cost of bandwidth, the ads are vital to allow us to use video freely on the site and only last 15 seconds while the stream is connecting, so hopefully not too annoying..

The one i saw was was an american air-wick 'commercial', which showed the price of it id $s. Not annoying, just a little bit strange lol.

[nsrobins]

Well the bow echo feature excelled itself and is still ongoing, with 100mph+ winds and embedded tornados in a few places in the last few hours.

What this does to the situation further west this evening is difficult to judge, but I still think discrete structure and possibly a strong sup is more than possible in the area I described earlier. I think SPC's take on the cap is a tad overdone and despite recent history some chasable action is still on the table for Wichita F area eastward.

[Roger J Smith]

If the second team is able to move by 5 pm, there might be a chance of intercepting the tail end of the cold front as it develops through eastern OK this afternoon, and I would suggest Sherman TX to Durant OK as the target area. It is conceivable that the front could activate further west all the way through north TX near Decatur, Mineral Wells etc, but the chances seem higher to the north and northeast of DFW. Could be very severe storms too, all the ingredients are there if the cap is blown off.

I hope team one enjoyed their wild ride, they certainly got to see a variety of storms in the past ten days or so.

[plymouthflye]

I'm guessing you're meaning the night at the museum ad, it's for a film and is narrated by an american but it is for the UK as it's being released here soon.

Unfortunately with the high cost of bandwidth, the ads are vital to allow us to use video freely on the site and only last 15 seconds while the stream is connecting, so hopefully not too annoying..

d

Hi all.

Well, after seeing the Chicken Bites ad' around 40-50 times now, ("Ohh-hhh") anything else is just bliss - for now.

BTW, really enjoyed watching tour 1's adventures. Looking forward to the next batch of "lucky people" later today. It never occurred to me to watch chasing via streaming video, until last week. A new facet to my hobby!

Edited May 8, 2009 by plymouthflye

[stevestorms]

Hi all we are targeting Red River prob Hugo area with options to drop down to Paris if need we have been driving quite a ways already just got a 150 to do now, very tired after last night early this morning when we got completley hammered by 90mph winds, the place is a mess this morning, we stayed put in El Dorado Ks looked like a storm during the early hours and I was up watching lightning approach around 0300 it started to weaken in our direction so went inside to check radar next thing I know SPC had issued a PDS and hadnt said why???? I just caught something about dangerous and 90mph and the lights went off WE WERE PLUNGED IN DARKNESS! the storm seemed to intencify with no lights atal the lighting was somewhat nasty looking everything went still for a mo -----then all hell broke loose ! roaring winds and debree flying past our room window things crashing and banging around wooooo then the blinking Tornado Sirens went off ! I was a tad concirned :-) had something suddenly developed ? people were starting to run around the hotel must have looked funny all in pitch blackness, anyway it all lasted around 15 mins and it was over, the facts are this morning no power to hotel no breckfast to power to town and surrounding areas no fuel pumps working no shops open --nothing! so we left :-) ok well fingers crossed for something structured today that we cn film in the light . cheer s all, Steve and Martin

Edited May 8, 2009 by stevestorms

[Tony Gilbert]

Good target zone is Bowie, now (A few miles NW of DFW)

The RUC gives exceptional instability for the region north central TX. The combination gives a classic low shear high instability environment with slow moving supercell development likely by late afternoon. Low level lapse rate potential for the region look phenomenal to say the least. Expect a very localised weakening of the cap as surface temps peak. Given the potential for very rapid upward development we could well see strong updrafts pull in any and all vorticity available. Likewise we could maybe expect to see one or two narrow but potent tornadoes develop. Not sure if the SPC will go moderate with this risk because the coverage for expectation is rather confined IMO

IMO the best deal on the board today but if you are a way off then you will need to haul ass!

Edited May 8, 2009 by Tony Gilbert

[Nick F]

Wow Steve, sounds like a nasty squall that moved though there. Was looking at the radar across Kansas this morning and saw what looked like a bow echo shaping up across central KS around 8am this morning here, then when I looked later around 10am it had shifted east quite quickly - hallmarks of a derecho.

As regards to a target today, I agree with Tony actually, would head up the 287 and turn off at Bowie with option N up the 81 across Red River into S-central OK. Models hint at some strong 0-3km shear and also large CAPE in this area (provided the cap goes) - so as good an area as any for supercells and possible tornadoes.

[Paul]

The team are at the airport now and have dropped off those leaving from tour 1, first flight for the incoming guests is about to land, with the next batch coming in about an hour. So hopefully they should be at the airport too long...

That said the american airlines flight is currently showing as delayed by 45 mins.

[ian cameron]

hI this Tom . We are currently picking up and dropping off at DWF and then it looks like we are heading north again. It has been sad saying good bye to John, Danny and Tammy. Oh well the show must go on.

Tom

[Nick F]

Must be like a sauna outside where you are, dew points reaching the mid 70s over n-central TX and temps in the high 80s. Explosive energy available if the cap breaks - especially near the Red River where Tds seem higher than further south in the southerly wind! I guess it could be something to do all the moisture in that area north of DFW which had that flooding recently.

[NL]

Convection along the c\f looks to be initiating now, been watching the visible satellite

images for about 40 mins. Hoping the cap breaks in a couple hours and then all hell break loose.

What a rude awakening that will be for team 2.

[NL]

The Skew-t for Witchita Falls at 6pm us time.

Wind convergence at 6pm should aid lift and break the ever weakening cap.

[Julie Cameron]

i no its probably not the weather u want but i wld swap wot u have 4 wot we got, its cold windy and wet, bk 2 winter almost lol glad u all ok an gd luck 2 the new team hope u c wot u want 2 c, still cant get over that lightening, take care and enjoy x

[A.J]

Convection along the c\f looks to be initiating now, been watching the visible satellite

images for about 40 mins. Hoping the cap breaks in a couple hours and then all hell break loose.

What a rude awakening that will be for team 2.

Yes,

NWS enhanced radar is now showing showers developing just to the north of I20 between Albilene and Dallas/Fort Worth....Its looking promising for the new team... radar link

[NL]

SPC have issued MD for severe potential.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0342 PM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN OK...N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 082042Z - 082215Z

STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM

DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING ALONG AND N OF COLD FRONT/RESIDUAL

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SRN/ERN OK INTO N-CNTRL TX. MAIN UNCERTAINTY

REMAINS IN TIMING OF INITIATION...WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE

SUGGESTING AROUND 22Z. GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY...ONCE INITIATION

APPEARS TO BE COMMENCING A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED.

20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A LOW CENTERED 20 E

SPS...WITH A COMPOSITE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING NEWD INTO

CNTRL/ERN OK TO FSM AND AN ATTENDANT DRY LINE S/SWD TO THE EDWARDS

PLATEAU. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CU GRADUALLY BUILDING

BETWEEN ABI AND MWL...WITH MORE VIGOROUS CU DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN OKC

AND MKO. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS NOTED ON RECENT ACARS DATA

INVOF OKC/DAL. HOWEVER...MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS/RAOBS SUGGEST

MLCIN SHOULD BE MINIMAL ACROSS N-CNTRL TX WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES

HAVE REACHED 95 TO 100 DEG F WITH DEW POINTS FROM 65 TO 70 DEG F.

CONTINUED HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWD-SAGGING

BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM INITIATION AROUND 22Z. AN

EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AMIDST MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD

SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.

UPSCALE GROWTH SHOULD LEAD TO CLUSTERS/QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH

EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS

AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..GRAMS.. 05/08/2009

[A.J]

Yes,

NWS enhanced radar is now showing showers developing just to the north of I20 between Albilene and Dallas/Fort Worth....Its looking promising for the new team... radar link

edit....looks like an isolated storm going up just to the south of Abilene.....supercell possibility??

Edited May 8, 2009 by ajpoolshark

[Nick F]

Some large amounts of CAPE bullseyed around Witchita Falls area on the hourly meso analysis, CINH seems to be weakened in this area too, satellite shows cu field W and NW of DFW up into central Oklahoma ahead of the cold front:

Possibilities of some isolated storms developing further W near the dryline west of Abilene, this backed up by the line cu developing in this direction too:

Concerns that when storms do develop, the cold front may undercut too quickly ... but the models tend to slow the front as it approaches Red River area as a meso low develops along the boundary.