Storm Chase 2010 - Heads Up..

[Paul Sherman]

Yeah not a bad Summary Darren! Although from the thread above I am liking Monday and Tuesday more than Friday, Could just about squeak a Moderate Risk, but probably mainly for Hail and Wind on Friday with Shelf Clouds and Gust Fronts the main attraction on a Linear Squall Line. Monday and Tuesday should see Isolated Dryline Supercells - (My Fav)

With regards the rest of the Season I am likening this Season to 1979 or 1982 still, with an Active April (See Red River F5 Outbreak 10 April 1979)and an active May period. I also think the Season will go into the Summer Pattern by week 3 or 4 in June and that will be that for this year.

Paul S

[kold weather]

Yeah the ECM has been rather keen on Monday/Tuesday with a tasty looking dryline and a big ole Warm sector as well with decent dews, just a shame its so far out really!

Tomorrow has a shot of being quite a good day if you like isolated supercells, got a decent cap in place and it maybe 50-50 as to whether anything does develop in the first place but if anything does get going it'll have decent conditions to strengthen and not be crowded out or become part of a linear mess like recent events this year have done.

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj0JrdIUw80&feature=player_embedded

Lol

Most people would be happy with 1 Tornado/Landspout - But.........6 at once

[dogs32]

That would of been a chaser's dream to see that many in one go.

Good capture on the video..

[MAF]

todays forecast from Storm Prediction Centre

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1239 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS/ERN

OK/TX AND THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE

PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE

MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM

SUGGEST A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...90KT AT H5...WILL ROUND THE

BASE OF AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX

BEFORE EJECTING TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL

MAINTAIN A STRONG LLJ ACROSS ERN TX INTO IL ENSURING THE GREATEST

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE NOTED ALONG A NARROW AXIS

JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE. IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT

60+ SFC DEW POINTS WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE SLGT RISK AREA PRIOR

TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF

KS/NERN OK. EVEN SO FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES

WILL EXCEED 1000 J/KG.

WHILE THE SHORT RANGE MODELS APPARENTLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE

LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN...LARGE VARIABILITY EXISTS WITHIN THE

GUIDANCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION/MODE. 02/00Z SOUNDINGS

ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR EXHIBIT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF INHIBITION

ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. STRONG FORCING/MID LEVEL COOLING

SHOULD ERODE THE NEGATIVE AREA ACROSS KS/OK EARLY IN THE

PERIOD...WHILE WEAKER FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS TX SHOULD DELAY

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AIDS UPDRAFT

DEVELOPMENT ALONG WIND SHIFT LATER IN THE DAY. FORECAST SHEAR

PROFILES ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING ROTATING

UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR A FORCED

LINE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE

ARKLATEX. ONCE THIS LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS IT SHOULD EASILY BE

SUSTAINED AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MS VALLEY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING

INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS TOWARD 12Z OVER WRN TN/KY/IL. INTENSE

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 150M IN 12HR...AHEAD OF

EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SEVERE SQUALL LINE TO PROGRESS

DOWNSTREAM OF INSTABILITY AXIS. NEEDLESS TO SAY IT APPEARS DAMAGING

WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH FAST MOVING SQUALL

LINE. GREATEST RISK FOR HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH NEWER UPDRAFTS ALONG

ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW

FAR SOUTH THE SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX REMOVED FROM THE

STRONG FORCING. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INTO THE

UPPER TX COAST REGION BEFORE SPREADING INTO LA DURING THE OVERNIGHT

HOURS...AS MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS THIS

REGION.

[user700]

Hi, mite be tornados today in eastern parts of Texas.

Danny

[kold weather]

http://www.youtube.c...player_embedded

Lol

Most people would be happy with 1 Tornado/Landspout - But.........6 at once

Thats real impressive, I remember watching this before when I was a kid, amazing stuff!

[Harry]

Right, that's ESTA sorted- got my 16 digit application number.

ESTA - done

Flights - done

Insurance - done

NW T's & C's - done

Now got to get hold of the funny green dosh, a remote release for my camera, and then I think I am in business!!

3 weeks today :unsure:

[TornadoJo]

Right, that's ESTA sorted- got my 16 digit application number.

ESTA - done

Flights - done

Insurance - done

NW T's & C's - done

Now got to get hold of the funny green dosh, a remote release for my camera, and then I think I am in business!!

3 weeks today

Yay you!

I'm sorted too apart fom a camera case - why are they all so ugly?!? And I need a rigid one for insurance which you just cant get!

1month and half a day

:unsure:

[Harry]

I got the Canon Semi Hard case - unfortunately, while innocently named, it's probably no good for you Jo :unsure:

What if you have your camera in a semi hard case but inside a ruck sack - does that count as one hard case?

[TornadoJo]

No idea. I found a cool bag though - aha slr bag - should haven enough room for extras too. Found a semi-rigid one but its soo ugly! Camera could go in that in to the nice bag! LOL

Got a month to keep looking but the funky red one I just got will do for now.

Yes - insert inuendos below:lol:

[Ross B]

Considering booking up for tour 3 but the minimum costs of the flights I can get is about £650 ( + Flights from Glasgow and Hotel in London), prices have shot up since last time! Can get it for 415 with a stop in Chicago but not sure I fancy 3 flights...

They are ~ 400 for Tour one if anybody is interested in that.

[John Hanrahan]

Can get it for 415 with a stop in Chicago but not sure I fancy 3 flights...

Have done that route twice. Once for work and once for stormchase. Wasn't that bad actually, as AA flights go. Chicago O'Hare is actually a fairly nice airport. Now once on the way home it went horribly wrong for me but that was down to mechanical failure on the aircraft but that could happen on a single hop. I certainly wouldn't let the additional flight get in the way of a chase in the plains. Although its probably 2 additional flights for you Ross.

[Ross B]

Have done that route twice. Once for work and once for stormchase. Wasn't that bad actually, as AA flights go. Chicago O'Hare is actually a fairly nice airport. Now once on the way home it went horribly wrong for me but that was down to mechanical failure on the aircraft but that could happen on a single hop. I certainly wouldn't let the additional flight get in the way of a chase in the plains. Although its probably 2 additional flights for you Ross.

Yep, that would be Glasgow > London > Chicago > Dallas in just over a day (and the same on the way back). Don't have time to take any more days off of work as I need them for 2 weeks in Florida with the GF in July. Wonder if I can get a flight from Glasgow to Chicago... will need to look into that. Might just be easier to try a bit harder and get my boss to let me off for tour one

Out of interest, do you guys just tell immigration that you are going Storm Chasing? Or tell some white lies? They never asked Gordon and I last year but i guess "vacation" would usually cover it.

[dogs32]

Hope you get a cheap flight Ross,they have been a pain this year to find..

I was lucky enough to eventually find one but that was weeks ago...

good luck

[John Hanrahan]

Out of interest, do you guys just tell immigration that you are going Storm Chasing? Or tell some white lies? They never asked Gordon and I last year but i guess "vacation" would usually cover it.

I said vacation 2 years ago and the officer found it odd that I was on my own, so he continued to ask who I was meeting and why. I eventually had to fess up and he ended up shouting over to the officer about 5 booths over that this Irish guy was with the other nutters from England on the previous flight, he didnt say nutters but something similar. Don't lie anyway, even if its something trivial and you are questioned further you may end up with a cavity search.

[ian cameron]

would be great to have u out there Ross - will see what flights I can find for you and see if it comes in any cheaper than £650

[AudMun]

Ross, Don't know if it's any good to you but I was really struggling to find flights at a reasonable price. I have ended up getting direct flights with AA for £463. I have done it all through a company called Flight Centre who have done all the leg work for me. I just need to now get a hotel sorted for the first night over there as I don't think the airport couches will be very comfortable.

Far as customs is concerned the first year I told them we were sight seeing and breezed through then last year I fessed up and ended up getting the third degree from the guy so don't know with that one!

Would be great to see you out there again.

Stewart

Edited April 8, 2010 by AudMun

[D-J-V]

Wohoooooooo

I have now got everything sorted for the chase, all I need to do is pack!

Dam I am excited 1 month today for meeeeee ;-)

Just out of interest anyone taking a Nikon digi SLR or are you all a bunch of Canon lovers?

See you soon guys!

[dogs32]

I told them I was Storm Chasing and to my surprise they where very interested and asked me many questions..

Stu Im at the Best Western Suites(Irving) if you are ariving a day early..

Im hopeing there is a shuttle that takes you from the airport straight to the hotel.

Edited April 8, 2010 by dogs32

[John Hanrahan]

Im hopeing there is a shuttle that takes you from the airport straight to the hotel.

Yes there is

[Mikel Nimbus]

Ross, you can travel from Glasgow for £464 with US Airways on tour 3. Glasgow ----> Philadelphia ----> Dallas

Have a look at www.kayak.com

Entering the country last year went ok. I just told them I was storm chasing, although I was a bit stumped when the guy asked me "what's that then?". I thought it was quite self explanatory to be honest.

[Gorky]

Never had a problem with telling them I'm Storm Chasing. I think it's a bit of a change from the usual people they deal with. They do get a bit suspicious if you are on your own. I get a lot of questions about who I'll be with during my trip and the last two years they've quizzed me about chasing alone but it's really not much hassle. When I went out with the team in 2007 I just told them I was meeting everyone at the car hire place as they'd come through on different flights (and in most cases the previous day!) and they were fine with that. Scary to think I'll be out there 1 month today Can't come soon enough!!!

[Dorsetbred]

Hmmm, I've still got to get some luggage, to stick everything in, that's OK I suppose with 5weeks to go.

[Harry]

Speaking of meeting place - I haven't really thought about that :unsure: lol

When we get through the mission that is aka customs, where do we go from there? Will we have a great big NW billboard with our names on it or do we head to a certain meeting place?

Cheers

Edited April 8, 2010 by Harry