Severe Weather US June.

[MAF]

A sturdy house and board up the windows against the strong straight line winds and grapefruit size hail likely later today ... actually, an underground bunker would be good.

and, of course, instead of the MPV, a Sherman Tank

Not much change from the 0718 outlook

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

[Paul Sherman]

Well today is an amazing Set-Up out there and you would be hard pushed to choose a Target area. Am expecting Tornadoes in wide apart areas today. Possibly as much as 500 Miles apart!

NE Panhandle / SE Wyoming

Great chance of Supercells from Upslope flow with adequate dewpoints and low level shear for Tornadoes

DVCZ & Palmer Divide

Again the Denver Cyclone should yield Tornadoes today and also the Palmer Divide should light up once again from Colorado Spring with Supercells moving East towards the Limon Area and into Eastern Colorado, again adequate Moisture and Shear for Tornadoes.

NE New Mexico

This area has continued to get better by the Models esp the latest RUC Model, much better temperature and dewpoints with better SE Upslope flow for this area, would expect Landspout type Tornadoes here today but as these Supercells drift out towards the OK Panhandle Guymon and Dumas Area expect one or two Stronger Tornadoes

E Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma

Insane Extreme Instability with up to 7,000jkg of Cape, harder to get the Storms Firing with more of a Cap here, but any Storm that can go up along a W/E Orientated Boundary has the Chance to go absolutely Crazy, Large Hail could top 5" in this area and could be some Strong Tornadoes. The Jarrel Texas Tornado was on a day just like this Set-Up.

So pick the bones out of that and choose a Chase Target.

Going to stick with Childress at the moment

Paul S

[dogs32]

some cells growing rapidly outside of Lubbock

and Childress what a place for Storms..

Edited June 13, 2009 by dogs32

[Nick F]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0240 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PNHDL INTO THE TX S PLAINS AND NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131940Z - 132115Z

SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE

HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED

PRIOR TO 21Z.

A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY

SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN NM /N OF TCC/ ESEWD THROUGH

THE SERN TX PNHDL ACROSS SRN OK. FARTHER S...LBB RADAR IMAGERY AS

OF 1920Z SHOWS A BOUNDARY DELINEATING A NWD SURGE OF WARMER AIR FROM

ROOSEVELT COUNTY NM THROUGH BAILEY...NWRN LAMB INTO CASTRO COUNTIES

TX. ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY...DELINEATING A WLY SURGE OF

COOLER AIR EXTENDED SEWD FROM SRN SWISHER COUNTY THROUGH WRN FLOYD

INTO CNTRL CROSBY COUNTY TX.

3-HR SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST

BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING AND WARMING IS OCCURRING FROM THE TRANS-PECOS

REGION THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE TX S PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD

CONTINUE TO BETTER-DEFINE THE DRYLINE E OF A LBB-MAF LINE BY LATE

AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD

WITHIN THIS HOT...DRYING AIR MASS...SUGGESTING THAT CAP IS BECOMING

INCREASINGLY WEAK.

EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITHIN THE NEXT

1-2 HOURS E OF DEVELOPING DRYLINE /LIKELY OVER THE LOW ROLLING

PLAINS/ WITH STORMS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEVERE GIVEN THE MODERATE TO

STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. CURRENT

LBB VWP AND JAYTON PROFILER INDICATE 30-35 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH

WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY.

VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE

MESOCYCLONES.

..MEAD.. 06/13/2009

[dogs32]

kicking off around Lubbock

Edited June 13, 2009 by dogs32

[Nick F]

Tornado warning just issued for supercell(s) ESE of Plainview:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX

332 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN MOTLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 331 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST

DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DOUGHERTY...OR ABOUT

17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MATADOR...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DOUGHERTY AND

ROARING SPRINGS.

[MAF]

yes guys, its certainly looking like a productive day out there

latest watch #398

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 398

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

320 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PART OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

MUCH OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 110 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF

ABILENE TEXAS TO 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

latest radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=fdr...111&loop=no

[MAF]

watch #399 issued. no text for it yet

[dogs32]

27 TS...lol....

3 and a half inch hail....

puts this country to shame

Edited June 13, 2009 by dogs32

[MAF]

27 TS...lol.... 3 and a half inch hail.... puts this country to shame

and added to that ....

THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

[dogs32]

touch down....Tornado report

TS 29

and here 0

EDIT.

NO TWISTER YET

Edited June 13, 2009 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

This is gonna get Tornado Warned Soon!

Childress missed that one

[Paul Sherman]

Above Storm Finally Tornado Warned! Took em long enough LOL

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

617 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES WEST OF

ROCHESTER...OR 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF HASKELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT

30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

ROCHESTER BY 635 PM CDT...

RULE BY 640 PM CDT...

HASKELL BY 655 PM CDT...

LAKE STAMFORD NEAR LAKE STAMFORD MARINA AND IRBY BY 715 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF

70 MPH.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING

FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

[Paul Sherman]

All kicking off again! Some Extreme Conditions in the Warning Text - Tornadoes and 3.5" Hail!

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 411

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

410 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS

PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE

PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 410 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF HILL CITY KANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...WW 408...WW

409...WW 410...

DISCUSSION...DRY LINE IS PUSHING INTO WATCH AREA AND RAPID

DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE WATCH. WITH FAVORABLE

SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY.

IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY

SUPERCELL. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE WATCH DURING THE

EVENING.

[Arron]

Just watching some nice CG's on Roger Hills live stream, east of Denver, AGAIN!!

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/playe...hill&uid=15

[Arron]

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/playe...kens&uid=97

Tornado on the ground

Edited June 14, 2009 by Smokes

[Nick F]

Tornado warnings right along dryline from SE Wyoming/SW Nebraska down into TX Panhandle!

Looks like Childress is going to get mullered - southern supercell was tornado warned recently;

[Arron]

The Kansas cell looks ace on Wills livestream

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/playe...kens&uid=97

[Arron]

Childress about to get spanked

[Paul Sherman]

Childress about to get spanked

Sigh - I love that place

[Cookie]

managed to find a podcast a very short one that talks about American sever weather ( not so much tornadoes). but the amount of activity across the whole of the USA at the moment, thunderstorms etc. with so much going on, on land and so little going on out to sea. very interesting.

typical though i missed the tornado on the live stream.

[Arron]

managed to find a podcast a very short one that talks about American sever weather ( not so much tornadoes). but the amount of activity across the whole of the USA at the moment, thunderstorms etc. with so much going on, on land and so little going on out to sea. very interesting.

typical though i missed the tornado on the live stream.

I only caught about 30 seconds of it on the ground and then roping out for about a minute. I think he had it on his live stream for a few minutes before I spotted it but I had it streaming on my other monitor while looking at something else

[Arron]

Nice pic here of the Kansas nado I saw on the live stream last night

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=21103

[Cookie]

some really amazing images thier!

[Paul Sherman]

Vortex 2 Must be Finished - A great chance for Tornadoes in Kansas today!

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0739 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2009

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

ACROSS MUCH OF KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL

PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE CAROLINAS...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHILE

A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS

THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE

TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...AND WILL AID IN THE

DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TODAY FROM

THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINAS...AND OVER PARTS OF

PA/NY/NEW ENGLAND.

...MO/AR/IL/KY/TN...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING

ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MO. THESE STORMS ARE IN A

REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. A SMALLER SCALE

BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS

AND WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE DOWN THE WEST EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED

PRECIPITATION SHIELD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT ITS PRESENT

SPEED...THESE STORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MO AROUND MIDDAY...AND

EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN KY/TN BY EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS

INCONSISTENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY

ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PROJECTED PATH COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF INTENSIFICATION AND THE

THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST

KS...WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF LOW

ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KS. MEANWHILE...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR

WEST OF THE DRYLINE NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE

VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE

ELIMINATED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A VERY MOIST

LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO

PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES

DURING THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE

VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS ORGANIZE AND TRACK

EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KS. AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL AND

MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL

DATA...APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE CONFIDENCE IN UPGRADE TO A

CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK FOR MUCH OF KS.

...WESTERN SD/NEB...

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE

BLACK HILLS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEB. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES AND 25-40 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS

CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CAROLINAS...

A BROAD AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT

TODAY OVER THE CAROLINAS. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...THIS WILL

PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL

STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME

HEATING.

...NY/PA/VT/MA/CT...

COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE

NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL

LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NY/PA AND WESTERN NEW

ENGLAND. A FEW CELLS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE WITH A RISK OF HAIL

AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER

ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.