Severe Weather US June.

[Paul Sherman]

Looks like this is going to be the Chase Day of the Year - I would expect a few Very Strong Tornadoes today with a possibility of an EF3-EF5 Today. This will definately be one to Watch tonight.

Would start the day in Hays Kansas

MODERATE RISK

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0100 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND

SRN PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK...ERN

PA...MD AND NJ...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AS A

60 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE

SOUTHWEST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AN MCS WITH ELEVATED

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN WRN KS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE

SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE

WAKE OF THE MCS...STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A MOIST

AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F EXTENDING NNWWD FROM

CNTRL OK INTO WCNTRL KS. NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS

CORRIDOR BY 00Z SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY IN CNTRL OK WITH MLCAPE

VALUES APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. FURTHER NORTHWEST...MLCAPE VALUES DROP

INTO THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE INTO NW KS. IN ADDITION...THE

MID-LEVEL JET MAX SHOULD MOVE OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE

LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR

PROFILES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS

ENVIRONMENT WILL BE A VERY FAVORABLE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT

ONCE SFC-BASED STORMS INITIATE JUST WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA

IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN

AGREEMENT ORGANIZING A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN KS

AND DRIVING A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS EWD ACROSS NERN KS INTO NRN MO

OVERNIGHT.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREATS...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL

INCREASE FROM NRN OK INTO CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING FEEDING

INTO SUPERCELLS ONGOING IN THE NRN PART OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND HUTCHINSON KS AT 00Z SHOW IMPRESSIVE

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 800 MB AND

0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND

500 METERS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT

TRACK EWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. WITH THIS VERY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LONG TRACK

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THE

CORRIDOR WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST

FROM HAYS KS EWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO MANHATTAN KS AND SWD

ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED SWD INTO

FAR SRN KS AND NRN OK WHERE A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE INCREASINGLY

INFLUENTIAL. SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS STRONG INSTABILITY

SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. THE WIND DAMAGE

THREAT SHOULD BE FOCUSED FURTHER EAST ACROSS ERN KS INTO NW MO AS

THE MCS BECOMES WELL-DEVELOPED.

...NRN OZARKS/MID-MS VALLEY/SRN OH VALLEY...

AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS MO

EXTENDING EWD INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS AGREE WITH

DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE THIS

AFTERNOON. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO SFC HEATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ACROSS SRN MO INTO WRN KY SHOW MODERATE

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND/OR

ORGANIZED BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONG

INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE

STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP

SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO EXIST.

...NY/ERN PA/MD...

A WELL-DEFINED MOIST AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE

MID-ATLANTIC NEWD ACROSS ERN PA INTO CNTRL NY. THE MODELS DEVELOP

MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE CORRIDOR WITH STORMS INITIATING IN

THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ECNTRL PA AND SRN NY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE

THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE

35 TO 40 KT RANGE SUGGESTING SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED

SEVERE STORMS. THE LATEST NAM AT 18Z SHOWS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8.5

TO 9.5 C/KM SUGGESTING DOWNDRAFT MOMENTUM WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT

AND FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE

MORE INTENSE CELLS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FORECAST.

[Arron]

15% Not too far from my friends in McPherson either!

Think I will be staying up late tonight

[Paul Sherman]

Arron

Mcpherson should be right under the Gun along with Hutchinson and points down to Witchita!

Would be a good idea to find the Weather Channel Feed for tonight and that Mike Bettes Character as their Picture quality will be like watching Tv Tonight.

Paul S

[Arron]

Arron

Mcpherson should be right under the Gun along with Hutchinson and points down to Witchita!

Would be a good idea to find the Weather Channel Feed for tonight and that Mike Bettes Character as their Picture quality will be like watching Tv Tonight.

Paul S

Emailed my friends earlier just to warn them, although they will probably hear about it all day :lol:

What a tedious man that Mike bloke is, oh well will have to put up with him I suppose! :lol:

[NL]

SPC have updated the moderate risk the threat has shifted a little further south.

SPC AC 091210

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0710 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND

EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA

FROM NERN CO ACROSS KS/MO AND ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...AND

FROM THE MDT RISK AREA SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL OK AND INTO CNTRL AND SRN

TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE EAST FROM WRN NC TO SERN

PA...

...SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS

OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND MISSOURI TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING ACROSS

THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER TX AND THE

ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SRN STREAM...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT

WAVE TROUGH AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM

AZ/NM THIS MORNING TO MO BY TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITH THIS

DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT

ALONG AND NORTH OF A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM KS/OK EWD ACROSS

MO TO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT

ACROSS NRN OK/ERN KS AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY

LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO

LATER TODAY.

A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK

INTO QUEBEC CANADA TODAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL PASS

ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA WITH RESIDUAL/WEAKENING STATIONARY PORTION

OF THIS FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE OH VALLEY. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS

ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK

CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS DELMARVA REGION LATER TODAY.

...NRN OK/SRN-CNTRL KS AND INTO WRN MO...

A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO THE

OK/KS BORDER. TSTMS...ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WERE

INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS KS THIS MORNING AS MASS TRANSPORT AND

ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND

ALONG THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. CLOUD COVER AND

PRECIPITATION WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT

NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT AS VERY UNSTABLE TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE

CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM SRN/CNTRL KS SWD ACROSS OK. FORECAST

SOUNDINGS DEPICT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CAPPING ACROSS

MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF

INSTABILITY FUELING ELEVATED STORMS FROM KS INTO MO...AND EFFECTIVE

SHEAR THIS AREA...SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR LARGE HAIL

PRODUCTION AS STORMS INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE

AFTERNOON.

SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT/INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED AS CAP IS

BREACHED THROUGH A COMBINATION OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND

PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/TRIPLE-POINT LOW AND

WARM FRONT...SOMEWHERE NEAR SRN KS/NRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS

AREA SHOULD ALSO LIE NEAR THE SWRN/SRN FLANK OF RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS

FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...IN A REGION WHERE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG

THE WARM FRONT MAY BE STRENGTHENED AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE

MAXIMIZED.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG/

AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS RESULTING IN 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES IN THE

RANGE OF 200-400 M2/S2...AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC NEAR THE WARM

FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LONGER-LIVED

SUPERCELLS/MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR

TWO. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE GREATEST TORNADO

POTENTIAL WILL EVOLVE AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON DISCRETE STORM

INITIATION NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES. AT THIS

POINT...THE WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE-POINT LOW ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE

LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...OR PERHAPS IN SRN/SERN KS

AT THE TIME SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF

20-22 UTC.

UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING FROM

NERN OK/ERN KS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN MO THROUGH THE

NIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM

FRONT WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO OR TWO WILL

ACCOMPANY THE STORMS NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVELY

ENHANCED FRONTAL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM KS/OK INTO CNTRL MO.

...EAST...

AIRMASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS FROM

DELMARVA NWD ACROSS ERN PA. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE

EAST SLOPES/FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM CAROLINAS TO VA.

BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH PASSAGE

OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT

WITHIN MARGINALLY SHEARED FLOW. POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR

ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL

CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THESE AREAS.

GREATER PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG

LEE-TROUGH AND NEAR COLD FRONT/LEE-TROUGH INTERSECTION AND

DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM PA ACROSS DELMARVA AREA LATER THIS

AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS IN THESE AREAS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUPERCELL

STRUCTURE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHER MULTICELLULAR

STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND/MARGINAL HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING IN

INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

...ERN CO/WRN KS...

NARROW CORRIDOR OF DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG/ IS FORECAST

TO DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS ERN CO. UPSLOPE

FLOW AND MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE STORM

INITIATION AS WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. RESULTING

STORMS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO HELICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND EAST

OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE

SURFACE/LEE LOW AIDING STORM INFLOW AND SOME TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL

WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...CNTRL OK SWWD ALONG TX DRYLINE...

AN ENSEMBLE OF VARIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM

INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXTENSIVE TX DRYLINE FROM SPS/ABI

AREAS SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. WHILE THIS ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN

CAPPED BY STOUT EML...IT DOES APPEAR THAT LOCAL HEATING AND MIXING

ALONG THE GRADUALLY ADVANCING DRYLINE...ALONG WITH VERY WEAK HEIGHT

FALLS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE

STORM INITIATION...ESPECIALLY IN TX. INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS

WILL LEAD TO HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN

THIS REGIME.

THREAT ACROSS CNTRL OK IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM INITIATION WHICH

APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THIS AREA LIES

BETWEEN BETTER DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH AND STRONGER

HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA ANY CONVECTION BREACHING THE

CAP WOULD POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.

THUS...CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS

TIME.

Could be a late one the neet...!!!

[NL]

A huge MCS affecting northern Kansas presently.

[Paul Sherman]

Would be on the Move from Starting Target based upon the latest Models - Journey from Hays to Witchita should take a few hours.

So lunch it is in Witchita (South side) so that I can use the I-35 South when needed.

Paul S

[Arron]

Would be on the Move from Starting Target based upon the latest Models - Journey from Hays to Witchita should take a few hours.

So lunch it is in Witchita (South side) so that I can use the I-35 South when needed.

Paul S

Virtual chasing just isn't the same

Best dig out the mamma mia cd for the virtual trip B)

[Paul Sherman]

Virtual chasing just isn't the same

Best dig out the mamma mia cd for the virtual trip

I know Gonna be a Dicey old day if you live in ICT (Wichita) May need to play the Abba song B)

The MCS That NL Posted up a Satelite Image of is actually going to help with today as it "should" throw off one or two Southward moving Outflow Boundaries, couple that with the Lifting Warm front just currently South of the KS/OK Border and................ If a few discrete Supercells form and ride the Boundary we are going to have a Serious Mess around South Central Kansas from around 11-01z tonight.

Paul S

[dogs32]

We would be putting a name to the Supercells today...lol

Oh well...

popping into Subs with a foot long bap...for the firework show for later...

And Ian preparing the buds for the road side viewing B)

And surely the dance music!!

Or SOS from ABBA like you say Paul

Edited June 9, 2009 by dogs32

[Gorky]

Correct me if I'm wrong but is this the first 15% tor risk issued since before May? NOt sure what the probs were for May 8th as I was flying out that day, but I'm sure all the moderate risks whilst I was out were for hail or wind.

It does look like this is the case. May 8th was only ever 5% tornado risk (with 47 tor reports... Oops...)

Edited June 9, 2009 by Gorky

[NL]

SPC update on the moderate risk.

756

ACUS01 KWNS 091631

SWODY1

SPC AC 091628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1128 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S CENTRAL/SE KS INTO

EXTREME NRN OK AND SW MO THROUGH LATE EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK

AREA...FROM NE CO AND NW TX EWD TO THE OH

VALLEY...APPALACHIANS...AND S CENTRAL NY...

..CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT

AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE

IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS FROM ERN

KS INTO WRN MO. GIVEN A FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE SW AND

LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND NWD

PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT FROM OK/AR INTO SE KS/SW MO...THIS

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND WITH AN

INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL

STRENGTHENS. OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO MOVING SWD ACROSS

CENTRAL KS AND WILL CROSS SE KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM

FRONT LIFTS NWD. THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE CONSOLIDATION OF A

PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SW MO ENEWD INTO SE KS...AND THEN

WWD INTO S CENTRAL KS.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM AROUND MID

AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WITH

THE DRYLINE ACROSS SRN KS AND PERHAPS EXTREME NRN OK. CONTINUED

DAYTIME HEATING /TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/

AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F...BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL

LAPSE RATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES

AOA 3000 J/KG/ AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR

SUPERCELLS...AS SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OCCUR IN

CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SPEED MAX EJECTING NEWD FROM NM IN ADVANCE

OF THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES. FORECAST

SOUNDINGS E OF THE TRIPLE POINT AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT SHOW

FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE

HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. THE

AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY GROW INTO ANOTHER MCS OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD

EWD ACROSS MO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND WAA

OVER THE REMNANT COLD POOL FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN KS/MO.

FARTHER S...AS DURING PREVIOUS DAYS...STRONG SURFACE HEATING COULD

SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IN TX.

IF STORMS FORM...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE

EXPECTED.

..OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AREA TO CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON

COMPLICATED FORECAST TODAY WITH SEVERAL SMALL SCALE SPEED MAXIMA

PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS...S OF THE

MAIN BELT OF WLYS AND THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR AND N OF THE

SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING

SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN NY/PA AND SEWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER...WHILE A

WARM FRONT IS LIFTING SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS ERN PA AND SRN/SERN NY.

REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES

AND POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500

J/KG/ ONCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NY

..THE LOW-MID 80S TOWARD THE OH VALLEY

AND THE UPPER 80S IN THE

LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL

FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE

SURFACE FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SUBTLE MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA

FROM THE OH VALLEY NEWD INTO PA/NY. THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW

AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESIDE OVER PA AND ESPECIALLY NY...WHERE

ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND

LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S AND SW TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND

APPALACHIANS...DIURNAL PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE RELATIVELY

WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

..SE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON

WITH WEAK MEAN NWLY FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS...THE SE FL SEA

BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED

DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 06/09/2009

[AudMun]

Only midday over there now and already a 20F difference between Salina and Wichita (80 miles)!

[NL]

Would be a good idea to find the Weather Channel Feed for tonight and that Mike Bettes Character as their Picture quality will be like watching Tv Tonight.

Paul S

They are streaming live now, and as Paul S has said the picture quality is spot on...

http://www.weather.com/tv/programs/vortex2...ml?from=hp_news

Will be streaming again later when storms start to kick off......(gone for lunch)

Edited June 9, 2009 by NL

[Arron]

They are streaming live now, and as Paul S has said the picture quality is spot on...

http://www.weather.com/tv/programs/vortex2...ml?from=hp_news

Will be streaming again later when storms start to kick off......(gone for lunch)

Cheers NL

[Cookie]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KS INTO SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354...

VALID 091759Z - 091930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354

CONTINUES.

TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE INVOF WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON

AND AN WW UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY.

RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT ANCHOR STORM SE OF EMP HAS EVOLVED

INTO A LARGE HP SUPERCELL SITUATED VERY NEAR SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT

SLOWLY DEVELOPING NWD. INFLOW AIR MASS OVER SERN KS INTO SWRN MO IS

RATHER MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. WHEN COUPLED WITH

STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STORM IS LIKELY INGESTING

SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG.

GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 AND

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN

QUITE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AS STORM CONTINUES ESEWD.

WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY

SEVERE THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF

STORM CAN LIMIT COLD POOL GENERATION.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2009

tornado warning issued

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

124 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

BOURBON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT.

* AT 123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO NEAR MORAN...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUND CITY...MOVING

EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

BRONSON BY 130 PM CDT.

7 MILES NORTH OF UNIONTOWN BY 140 PM CDT.

6 MILES NORTH OF REDFIELD BY 150 PM CDT.

7 MILES SOUTH OF FULTON BY 200 PM CDT.

FORT SCOTT BY 205 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF XENIA...MAPLETON...HARDING...DEVON...MARMATON AND

HAMMOND ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

Edited June 9, 2009 by cookie

[NL]

Mesoscale Discussion issued for southern/central Kansas and Northern Oklahoma

Tornado watch likely.

290

ACUS11 KWNS 091834

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 091834

KSZ000-OKZ000-092000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0134 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO S-CNTRL KS AND PARTS OF NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091834Z - 092000Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS

EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE

BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD

FROM ERN FINNEY COUNTY ESEWD THROUGH FORD...EDWARDS AND AT LEAST

INTO PRATT COUNTY. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT IS

OCCURRING ALONG THE MERGING OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ATTENDANT TO KS/MO

MCS WITH NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT. HERE...LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY

HAS BEEN ENHANCED...BUT THE LIGHT ELY/ENELY WINDS IN THE COLD AIR

SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY SWD PUSH. AS SUCH...COMPOSITE BOUNDARY SHOULD

BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE INITIATION OF STORMS WITH ANY MATURE

SUPERCELL MOTION LIKELY REMAINING LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE BAROCLINIC

ZONE.

DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE

THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

CURRENTLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT IT IS

FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS WOULD

SUGGEST THAT ANY CORRESPONDING TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

..MEAD.. 06/09/2009

[Paul Sherman]

Just about to Post that NL

As earlier thought the Morning MCS Has thrown off an Outflow Boundary that is nearing the Warm Front currently just North Of (ITC) Wichita. This is more than enough to get the Initial Storms Firing and as Low Level Shear increases towards 22-00z then these should have no problem becoming Tornadic.

Watch out Eastern, Central and South Eastern Kansas could be a Rocky Ride!

Paul S

[Roger J Smith]

Here's the first tornado-warned cell on radar, moving southeast towards the KS-MO border.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=twx...111&loop=no

This has been analyzed as a warm front but it has been retreating south through Kansas since 0600 and is therefore a back-door cold front, merging with a q.s. front east-west just north of Wichita to the intersection of a strong dry-line near Dodge City and a potential deformation zone between ICT and END. I'm expecting this zone to back-build from the present activity with more supercells to come around Winfield KS later this afternoon, and a major tornado or several would seem quite likely today. The warm sector is juicy with mostly sunny skies and temps heading for low 90s, dew pointe near 70 F.

This first developing tornadic storm will probably head towards Springfield MO eventually, but soon there is probably going to be a chain of supercells east-west through ICT, all drifting in the same e.s.e. direction.

[dogs32]

no.1

1904

5 S FORT SCOTT BOURBON KS3777 9471 TELEVISION STATION RECORDING VIDEO OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND (SGF)

Edited June 9, 2009 by dogs32

[NL]

Tornado watch now issued concerning MD1006...

DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING STORMS IN SE KS/SW MO

IS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS SRN KS...AND THE WRN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY

WILL STALL THIS AFTERNOON NEAR ICT...WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED

IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED AND

LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS...WITH

SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FARTHER E TOWARD SE KS. SHORT

TERM MODEL FORECASTS ARE UNCLEAR ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH LOW-LEVEL

FLOW WILL RESPOND TO A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING ENEWD OVER THE

TX PANHANDLE. ALSO...THE COLD POOL IS STILL RELATIVELY NEW AND MAY

NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO MODIFY BEFORE NEW STORMS FORM ALONG THE

BOUNDARY...WHICH CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE THREAT FOR

LONG-LIVED/INTENSE TORNADOES. REGARDLESS...THE STORM ENVIRONMENT

WILL STILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND THE POTENTIAL

FOR A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THIS EVENING...GIVEN MLCAPE AOA 3000

J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT.

Edited June 9, 2009 by NL

[dogs32]

thanks NL...

the saga continues

no.2

1925

8 SE HUMBOLDT NEOSHO KS3773 9533 TRONADO HAD A BRIEF TOUCH DOWN ON THE NEOSHO ALLEN COUNTY LINE. (ICT)

wish I knew the TV station for the other Twister while it was happening

Edited June 9, 2009 by dogs32

[Nick F]

I see SPC have a high risk (70%) for tornadoes and moderate risk (40%) of EF2+ tornadoes in their latest watch ...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0358_prob.html

[NL]

Latest from SPC concerning todays risk.

425

ACUS01 KWNS 092002

SWODY1

SPC AC 091959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0259 PM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND

SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS

OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH

PLAINS...ACROSS KS AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE

OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES/NY/PA...

..CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION

A CLUSTER OF VIGOROUS STORMS CONTINUES MOVING ESEWD ACROSS ERN KS

AND MO ATTM...WITH THE STRONGEST/SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS ALONG THE SRN

FRINGE OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM SERN KS INTO THE SRN HALF OF MO INVOF

THE OUTFLOW-ENHANCED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY W-E ACROSS THIS

REGION.

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70/

BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON

HEATING HAS YIELDED A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEAR AND S OF THE

SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES REVEALING MIXED-LAYER

CAPE LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG CONFIRMED BY AFTERNOON NORMAN OK

AND SPRINGFIELD MO RAOBS.

LATEST VIS IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ALONG THE SURFACE

BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM THE ONGOING SUPERCELL STORMS OVER SERN

KS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RAOB/PROFILER DATA

DEPICTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THREAT FOR

ISOLATED/STRONG TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE

HAIL. IN ADDITION...STORMS NOW ONGOING ACROSS MO SHOULD SLOWLY

EVOLVE INTO A LARGE MCS...WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS

INTO THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...A SECOND MCS MAY EVOLVE AS STORMS DEVELOP OVER SRN

KS/NRN OK INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY EXPAND IN

COVERAGE AND MERGE AS A LOW-LEVEL JET RE-INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING

OVER OK AND THEN VEERS WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND NOSES INTO MO. ALONG

WITH SOME CONTINUED TORNADO POTENTIAL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE

HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND MCS.

FARTHER S...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE MIXING EWD

ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF TX. WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING

STORMS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH

ISOLATED STRONGER/SUPERCELL STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME

OVER NERN CO. LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE

POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED CELLS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

Latest vis satellite image.

the cu field can be seen just behind the large MCS spreading in a westerly direction.

[dogs32]

no.3/4.. :huh:

2040

PRESTON HICKORY MO3794 9321 RAIN WRAPPED SMALL ROPE TORNADO ONE QUARTER MILE W OF 65/54 JUNCTION (SGF)

2115

12 NNE HYANNIS CHERRY NE421610167 TORNADO BRIEFLY ON THE GROUND...DISSIPATED. (LBF)

Edited June 9, 2009 by dogs32