Severe Weather US June.

[NL]

After several weeks of a relatively quiet period there looks to be some severe events in the coming days/weeks

with some extremely severe weather expected at the end of next week into the weekend with possibly the most

significant trough of the whole season coming into western US..!!

Today the NWS/SPC have issued a slight chance of storms today

Tornado risk

Several MD have been issued and 2 Wx Watches in effect. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

Several US chasers will be out today streaming, (although nowhere near as good as NW stream..!)

http://www.tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

http://severestudios.com/livechase

[Paul Sherman]

Sob

[MAF]

cheers NL. something to look forward to.

hope you are not too upset Paul. i suppose you could always go back out there

[Nick F]

10% risk of tornadoes today for central High Plains:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1257 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2009

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

PLAINS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS

LATER FRIDAY AS SWRN U.S. SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS AZ INTO THE

4-CORNERS REGION. ALTHOUGH GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS

THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR WEST...NWLY H5 FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE

CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BACK TO THE WSW...ROUGHLY 250-260 DEG...BY

06/00Z. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT THE SFC OVER NERN CO

WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MOIST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES DUE TO ELY

COMPONENT...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE

INDICATES STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO

WRN KS. THIS SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES SOAR TO NEAR 80F. CONVECTIVE

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF

THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. FORECAST PROFILES

SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL EASILY DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED

ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500

J/KG. IT APPEARS SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE BY MID-LATE

AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD INTO SWRN NEB WHERE LOW LEVEL

SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY MOST STORMS

THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND WHERE DEW POINTS CAN HOLD IN THE 50S

THERE APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW

TORNADOES. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN OVER

THE CNTRL PLAINS. WAA WILL ENHANCE EWD MOVING COMPLEX OF STORMS AS

THEY MOVE ACROSS NEB DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. LARGE

HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

STRONG HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN ASSIST ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. BOUNDARY

LAYER AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY MOISTENING ACROSS THIS REGION AS SFC

ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS TX. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT

BE THAT STRONG IT APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN

ADEQUATE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS...OR PERHAPS

AN ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SUPERCELL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

[dogs32]

mmm..

thanks for the heads up Nick.

If money wasnt the problem

[NL]

Update from the SPC.

Forecast Discussion

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0733 AM CDT FRI JUN 05 2009

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH

PLAINS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

INCREASING SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE

CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW

EJECTING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE LOW

PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH

STRONG HEATING INTO CENTRAL/SERN CO SHIFTING DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH EWD

NEAR THE KS BORDER. BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF DRY LINE AND

EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MOIST FOR

MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE MID AFTERNOON...AS TEMPERATURES WARM

INTO THE 70S F AND DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE LOWER 50S F.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN DEEP UPSLOPE REGIME AND

OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CENTRAL CO INTO ERN WY BY THE MID TO LATE

AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND

ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AS IT OVERSPREADS INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE HIGH

PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50

KT. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE

LARGE/...A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED

SUPERCELL ACROSS NERN CO/ERN WY/WRN NEB...ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY

EVENING AS LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE DUE TO STRENGTHENING

NOCTURNAL SSELY LLJ. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BUILD UPSCALE INTO A MCS

DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT

OCCURRING OVERNIGHT ALONG NOSE OF 50+ KT LLJ WHICH WILL LIKELY

MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS EWD OVER

THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...

STRONG HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN ASSIST ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. BOUNDARY

LAYER AIRMASS IS GRADUALLY MOISTENING ACROSS THIS REGION AS SFC

ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS TX. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT

BE THAT STRONG...IT APPEARS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN

ADEQUATE FOR A FEW ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS...OR PERHAPS

AN ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SUPERCELL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...WRN WY TO ERN ORE...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SWRN MT TO

CNTRL CA BY EARLY EVENING...WHILE QUITE COLD MID LEVEL

TEMPERATURES...H5 TO -18C...SETTLE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BENEATH THIS

FEATURE. STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW EJECTING ACROSS UT WILL ALLOW A

RATHER PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT TO SURGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN

INTO UT. GREATER MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES ON THE

ORDER OF 0.75 INCHES WILL HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN WY/ID INTO ERN

ORE...WELL REMOVED FROM STRONGER SWLY FLOW REGIME. SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MOIST

ENVIRONMENT...POSSIBLY INITIATING AS EARLY AS 18Z. ISOLATED LARGE

HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AT THIS TIME IT

APPEARS AIRMASS OVER UT WILL DRY TOO QUICKLY AND REMAIN TOO STABLE

TO SUPPORT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

...SOUTHEAST...

WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH

ASSOCIATED AXIS OF MODEST SWLY LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS. PROFILES

WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ONLY MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE...

HOWEVER APPEARS AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUST REMAINS

POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 06/05/2009

Hells teeth whats going on whats yesterdays risk doing there!!!

[Nick F]

Few tornado warnings recently in SE Wyoming:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY

349 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN GOSHEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

* UNTIL 415 PM MDT

* AT 349 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF MERIDEN REST AREA...OR 33

MILES SOUTHWEST OF TORRINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN

GOSHEN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS HWY 85 MM 60 AND

HWY 85 AT HIGHWAY 151.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY

327 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL GOSHEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

* UNTIL 400 PM MDT

* AT 326 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF CHUGWATER...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST

OF WHEATLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL

GOSHEN AND SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES.

That's got to be dropping a nado

[Gorky]

Vortex 2 showing a significant tornado live now...

http://www.weather.com/tv/programs/vortex2...om=hp_main_tab3

Live probe deployment underway.. fascinating...

That was one of the coolest rope outs I've ever seen. I wish the cameraman was a little better though....

[Arron]

oh I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad roll on 2010 :ph34r:

Edit: swear filter working ok I see :lol:

[Nick F]

Vortex2 got on that tornado warned cell in Goshen County, WY yesterday and finally bagged a tornado ... lol. Nice video of the storm showing what was going on - took a while to get going as funnel it roped out a few times then finally got on the ground for about 25 mins, I think, as wedge. Nice One:

Shame we weren't still there

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videopla...=gn_six_welcome

Short Video Highlights here, I must have missed the Wedge Stage and cant seem to find the Wedge Tornado that the Weather Channel were talking about. All I saw last night was a few Cone Tornadoes, an Elephant Trunk and then the Amazing Rope Stage.

Anybody got other footage of last night ??

Had to happen 6 days after we came back I suppose.

Paul S

[Arron]

Nice clip

[Gorky]

It was reported as a wedge on TWC, but of course, they were just sensationalising it. It never progressed from a fat cone stage really.... Still, it was a pretty nice twister

[Paul Sherman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1247 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS...SERN

NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM

NRN OK TO SRN WI...

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT AND

ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER

CO RIVER VALLEY OF SRN NV/CA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST MID

LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ACROSS NRN

NM BEFORE SHIFTING INTO KS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ENHANCING SEVERE

POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD

OF FRONTAL ZONE. PRIOR TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...AN EARLY MORNING MCS

WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY

ENHANCE ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT ACROSS IA AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW

BECOMES DRAPED ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SRN NEB WHERE IT SHOULD

INTERSECT SURGING COLD FRONT. NAM IS A BIT FARTHER SE WITH COLD

FRONTAL POSITION OVER KS AT 00Z THAN GFS AND THIS SEEMS MORE

REASONABLE GIVEN THE AIRMASS OVER THE NRN PLAINS ATTM.

LATEST THINKING IS AFTER THE EARLY MORNING MCS OVER THE MID MS

VALLEY...MUCH OF THE DAY WILL PROVE CONVECTIVE-FREE OVER THE CNTRL

PLAINS AS SFC PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED PRIOR TO MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

VERY STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO

SCNTRL KS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE

WELL INTO THE MID 90S. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG NERN

PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WHERE PARCEL RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE

MAXIMIZED ALONG ZONE OF STRONG CONVERGENCE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL KS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC

LOW THEN TRACK/DEVELOP NEWD INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS

CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE APPROACHING

SHORTWAVE TROUGH...UPDRAFTS SHOULD ORGANIZE QUICKLY WITH SUPERCELLS

THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY MANY

OF THESE STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH CAPE.

ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER NERN KS INTO

SERN NEB/NWRN MO ALONG DECAYING OUTFLOW WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS

SUGGEST SFC-3KM HELICITY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 300 M2/S2 OVER THIS

REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE

ACROSS THE MDT RISK REGION...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES INTO THE

EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN KS/NEB

INTO IA/NRN MO DURING THE LATE EVENING...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC

LOW. ONE OR MORE MCS-TYPE COMPLEXES SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE MID MS

VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS MCS MATURES.

...ELSEWHERE...

ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG

DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO

NEAR 100F. HIGH BASED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE WIND

GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH

FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS

WITHIN MARGINAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR MICRO

BURSTS ARE THE THREATS WITH THIS DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

[Nick F]

Lol, the lack of words from Paul says it all.

Fist Moderate for a while. Think Stuart Robinson is out there now, lucky him.

Hail the main reason it has gone MODERATE, though with 10% tornado probs, I'd fancy there being some nado reports cmong in later. Perhaps the first proper tornado (rather than landspout) for Kansas this season?

Think I'd target Wichita then head NE from there up the I-35.

[Paul Sherman]

Lol, the lack of words from Paul says it all.

Fist Moderate for a while. Think Stuart Robinson is out there now, lucky him.

Hail the main reason it has gone MODERATE, though with 10% tornado probs, I'd fancy there being some nado reports cmong in later. Perhaps the first proper tornado (rather than landspout) for Kansas this season?

Think I'd target Wichita then head NE from there up the I-35.

Lol You Noticed

FIST Moderate Risk - Is that for the Hail

[Nick F]

Lol, haven't fully awoken yet.

Another cold front set-up though today - perhaps similar to that time you had on Tour 2 in s-central KS. Need to get on cells when they first form before they turn into a linear squally mess.

[Paul Sherman]

Yeah it looks a lot like that Nick TBH!

Depends how long the Supercullular Mode can hold together, with that day we had it Lined out in literally 20 Minutes, there were a few embedded Supercells but finding them over a 500 Mile line was almost Impossible.

What would be good is about 5 Discrete Supercells spread out and getting on them for about 2 Hours before it turns into a Squall Line. But yes Hail looks like the likely Threat with again 10% for Tornadoes.

Just does not look like this year is going to have a Classic 2/3 Day Outbreak like we saw on 22nd and 23rd May last year.

All bodes well for 2010!

[Cookie]

how can it bode well for next year so early?

dose it go in cycles?

or is it just optimism? :lol:

[Nick F]

how can it bode well for next year so early?

dose it go in cycles?

or is it just optimism? :lol:

Put it this way, it can't get much worse/quieter than it has this season :lol:

[Paul Sherman]

how can it bode well for next year so early?

dose it go in cycles?

or is it just optimism? :lol:

Well they usually have 1 Outbreak per year and as yet this year has been benign. Even the dreadful 2005 & 2006 had Outbreaks in June that year, but usually the Outbreak occur in May (See 2007 & 2008) If we knew when the BIG Outbreaks would occur we would also win the Lottery on a regular basis :lol:

Tour 3 showed this year that even under a Huge Ridge we still got Severe Storms on 10 out of 10 days so I would not worry too much.

Paul S

[dogs32]

one Twister report so far today

1850

20 WSW SCOTTSBLUFF SCOTTS BLUFF NE417610402 (CYS)

i miss chasing

[Nick F]

I see that storms are beginning to fire along dryline extending from S-central KS (where it intersects sagging cold front/triple point) down across NW OK and across TX Panhandle. Tornado threat looks low along DL though and best shear looks to be reserved further NE across NE KS, SE NE, Nern MO and IA for tornadoes.

Supercells have developed over SE NE and NE KS area now and it will be a case of getting on these supercells quickly while they are still discrete before they merge into linear squall line along CF.

Tornado warning for SE Nebraska:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA

454 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

RICHARDSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM

WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PAWNEE CITY...OR 29 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF BEATRICE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

STEINAUER...PAWNEE CITY...TABLE ROCK...DU BOIS...HUMBOLDT...THE

HIGHWAY 75 AND 8 JUNCTION...DAWSON...STELLA...SALEM...VERDON...

SHUBERT...FALLS CITY...RULO...PRESTON AND BARADA

[Nick F]

Quite a few tornado reports in the end: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[dogs32]

Just been watching ALL the Twisters from Reed this last week.Brilliant footage!!!

dont know whever to laugh or cry...

I hope next year comes back with a evengence for us

though I saw some superb Supercells better than the euro teddybears