Arctic Ice 2009

[Sleet30031972]

No Jethro, it's not about folk or opinions (other than mine that is ) it's about how I see things. No matter how I try I can see nothing positive about the situation in the Arctic and ,to me, so many negatives which appear to be happening before times.

Having no answers, for me or anyone else, leaves me feeling quite helpless and full of despair and I've no wish to spend very long in that place. In the short term, Esp. over summer, there are so many positives to fill my world with that it seems stupid to become embroiled in something (to me) so dire and frightening.

We each see things in our own novel way and ,maybe, search out that which reinforces our views. Being 'poorly motivated' it is far too easy for me only to see the mainstream view and the direction this would have us in. Kudos to those who are more persistent in their personal endeavours. B)

Sad to say but i share your conclusions Wolf. I think we are well past the point of no return and are, largely, sleep walking towards (in a few short decades i fear) a man-made ecological disaster.

All we can do now is live our lives as best we can and hope for the future. We are lucky that we live in a country that will be sheltered from the worst extremes but famines, wars and a massive number of deaths loom on our near horizon.

Am staggered at the number of people who still persist in believing that the changes we are experiencing are somehow 'natural' and/or of no 'significance'. Very Odd.

Open.Your.Eyes.

[Thundery wintry showers]

We each see things in our own novel way and ,maybe, search out that which reinforces our views. Being 'poorly motivated' it is far too easy for me only to see the mainstream view and the direction this would have us in. Kudos to those who are more persistent in their personal endeavours.

To varying extents (depending on the openness of the individual's mind on a given subject) this is true, but I think pot, kettle and black spring to mind here. The "GW view" is rather more pessimistic from the mainstream view I get exposure to from the climate scientists- although that to a lesser extent is also pretty grim.

Your assertion re. Jethro is dependent on whether Jethro supports Polyakov because he agrees with her, or if it's more because she has seen his case and finds it convincing, but I have to say that the recent posts in this thread suggest the latter. As it happens I think most of Polyakov's stuff would have appeared correct as of 2002- as per my earlier post it's what's happened thereafter that makes me wonder if his conclusions would be the same if he conducted the same analysis as of 2009.

Sadly I have to agree, too, that we are sleepwalking towards a man-made ecological disaster- there's too much desire (among the general public as a whole) for laissez-faire, and if AGW doesn't get us, the non-sustainable consumption of resources and population pressure in developing countries for example probably will. But whether the Arctic ice melt will continue to accelerate, and how dramatic the consequences will be, is still open to question.

[Iceberg]

There was an update from polyakov in 2005 I believe where he admits that not all of the warming was natural and that the period between 2002 and 2005 was above what could be expected with the natural cycles. I wonder what he would make of things post 2005 ?. He has been very quite in the last few years.

Re Jet stream and solar cycles, I thought that the solar cycles had actually decreased since the 1950-1970 period ? over the post 1990 period ?.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes- as far as I'm aware the wintertime jet progressively strengthened and tracked further north between the 1970s and 1990s, and then in the 2000s it has weakened but continued to track even further north- though last winter was an exception.

[jethro]

There was an update from polyakov in 2005 I believe where he admits that not all of the warming was natural and that the period between 2002 and 2005 was above what could be expected with the natural cycles. I wonder what he would make of things post 2005 ?. He has been very quite in the last few years.

Re Jet stream and solar cycles, I thought that the solar cycles had actually decreased since the 1950-1970 period ? over the post 1990 period ?.

I haven't seen that update Iceberg, any chance you could post a link please?

Jet stream/Solar forcing - not a clue, I scanned an article, then posted it in the GWO thread as it seemed relevant there. I do have vague memories of the jet stream tracking more southerly than normal as being the cause of last summer's deluge, again as TWS said, more northerly this winter, the model thread has mentioned something about it still being South I think so could this be linked to the current prolonged minimum?

[Gray-Wolf]

The inference being that it took me ages to cherry pick something to back up my views?

I'm sorry you took it that way Jethro, I was speaking of me and my faults and had no wish to fetch anyone else into it at all.

As I say Kudos to anyone strong enough to not be as taken with the evidence to hand as myself and, I for one , hope that they are right and myself, and those of similar views, are dead wrong.

I love life (all of life, even if it involves the Sparrow Hawk that's just taken one of my baby hedge sparrows! B) ) and I'd rather focus on this love than find myself worrying over that which can so easily upset our current way of being. We're a long time dead eh?

Edited June 19, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Yet couldn't resist looking for Igor V's latest efforts and , as far as I can gauge, his last input was at the AGU in 05' where he was noting 2 'anomalous warm pulses' (in Feb and Aug, 04') pushing into the Norwegian sea and around the Arctic rim. " Anomalous'' doesn't souns like a regular cyclical event to me. I'll get me coat.... :lol:

Edited June 19, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[Devonian]

How about this?

Arctic sea ice report card from NOAA

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/ocean.html

Well done Dev! I.V.P. seems to be part of a team looking at this warming of the Arctic ocean since 1990 now.

EDIT: Infact why not Google the document title (as I did)

Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to a warmer state

and have a good read from Polar bears to ice thickness to salinity to ice drift and all from 06 onwards (it appears) and much of the post 07' stuff is chilling.

Edited June 19, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[Chris Knight]

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/ocean.html

Well done Dev! I.V.P. seems to be part of a team looking at this warming of the Arctic ocean since 1990 now.

EDIT: Infact why not Google the document title (as I did)

Observational program tracks Arctic Ocean transition to a warmer state

and have a good read from Polar bears to ice thickness to salinity to ice drift and all from 06 onwards (it appears) and much of the post 07' stuff is chilling.

From the beginning of the article:

"The circulation of the sea ice cover and ocean surface layer are closely coupled and are primarily wind-driven"

No-one seems to look at the wind data itself over the pole, during the melt season, over the past few exceptional years. Yet it is readily available from the same site as the reportcard:

here is 2002

winds often exceeding 10 m/s

2003

Similar picture, note that the wind sensor remains operational throughout the year, because it is kept in constant motion.

2004

Is there a drop in windspeeds in the spring and summer?

2005

June and August were a little less windy, but otherwise, lots of wind

2006

Hey, is this the same place? No wind much greater than 8m/, throughout the summer?

2007

looks like a rerun of 2006, with the sensor failing in the late summer melt, as the icepack destabilises, still, low windspeeds again.

2008

Same again, perhaps the design of the buoy and instrumentation is not up the the job in fair weather!

2009 (so far)

It is like a millpond up there, hardly a gust above 4m/s.

Is this because the ice is flat mecause it is mostly single season, or is the ice flat because there have been no winds to break and pile it up?

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd read somewhere (and some time back) that during solar min's there is a trend towards higher pressure (globally) and during solar max a move towards lower pressure across the globe. Maybe the low wind speeds reflect the 'average SLP' around the Northern hemisphere and the number of storms moving up into the polar region?

I do hope we are not going to have a summer of high pressure over the pole as we do not need a repeat of 07' right now.

[J10]

This is the latest set of figures on the Arctic Sea ice,

On the IJIS figures, there has been decent performance over the past week, with an average drop off of only 25,000 per day since the last update, (however this only covers 5 days). This is now around 95,000 above the 2003-2009 average (and by inference 475,000 below the 1978-2009 average).

On the IJIS figures we are the third highest of the series, below 2003 and 2004, but above all years since that, we are now around 150,000 above the figures in 2008, and 130,000 above the 2007 figures.

Arctic_Ice_Summer_2009.xls

This is the latest set of figures on the Arctic Sea ice.

On the IJIS figures , the rate of ice loss is rising over the past week to around 70,000sqkm per day. We are still above the 2003-09 average by around 45,000sqkm (and by inference 535,000 below the 1978-2009 average).

On the IJIS figures we are the third highest of the series, below 2003 and 2004, but above all years since that, we are now around 40,000 above the figures in 2008, and 145,000 above the 2007 figures.

Arctic_Ice_Summer_2009.xls

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Seem to be tracking with 07' currently and seeing as we had a thinner pack at the start that probably means a min twixt 07 and 08. Fine recovery eh?

[J10]

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Seem to be tracking with 07' currently and seeing as we had a thinner pack at the start that probably means a min twixt 07 and 08. Fine recovery eh?

Not quite true, seems to be tracking 2008 at the moment, and there will be a full update as normal on Sunday, to give the exact figures.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not quite true, seems to be tracking 2008 at the moment, and there will be a full update as normal on Sunday, to give the exact figures.

Enough said and thanks

BFTP

[songster]

Not quite true, seems to be tracking 2008 at the moment, and there will be a full update as normal on Sunday, to give the exact figures.

"Tracking" means bupkiss until a week or so into July. Pretty much all the lines are parallel to each other throughout the latter half of May and the whole of June. You (or GW, or I) can spin that any way you like, but the practical upshot is that the rate of daily melt through May/June gives us almost zero predictive information about the summer minimum.

What matters this year are two things:

1) Will we see the rapid melt in late July, as in 2007?

2) Will we see prolonged melting througgout late August, as in 2008?

Of these, the first seems to have been due to the "perfect storm" factors promoting summer melt, which are presumably unlikely to repeat. The second seems to have been due to the fact that there was vast amounts of first-year ice present which thinned through the summer and gave out in August. This is likely to repeat this year, given the ice pack makeup.

Edited June 24, 2009 by songster

[osmposm]

"Tracking" means bupkiss until a week or so into July. Pretty much all the lines are parallel to each other throughout the latter half of May and the whole of June. You (or GW, or I) can spin that any way you like, but the practical upshot is that the rate of daily melt through May/June gives us almost zero predictive information about the summer minimum.

I don't think J1 was spinning it, just pointing out that GW had got his coloured lines confused. In fact, J1 never spins it: he just gives us the facts. For which much thanks.

Edited June 24, 2009 by osmposm

[songster]

I don't think J1 was spinning it, just pointing out that GW had got his coloured lines confused. In fact, J1 never spins it: he just gives us the facts. For which much thanks.

I know, which is why I tried hard to word it to make clear that I was using a generic "you" rather than a specific "you". Perhaps I should have written "One can spin it ... if one is so inclined", but then one would have sounded like the Queen. :-)

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't think J1 was spinning it, just pointing out that GW had got his coloured lines confused. In fact, J1 never spins it: he just gives us the facts. For which much thanks.

Got my numbers confused actually J1 is correct in his 'correction' and ,yup, it seems bang on the 08' line (the lime green on the IJIS is a bugger to see). As Songster rightly (IMHO) points out the initial 'falloff' of ice seems constant for most years apart from the start point that is. Once again we had a high final ice extent and once again ,in these times of cooling, we are in the middle of the IJIS data plot. For that to occur would suggest that we have already undergone a period of melt more rapid than many years previous.

The final melt out of single year ice this season would have me thinking that final figures must end up lower than last year (more single year ice and less 'blocking' of ice flow into the Atlantic by perennial now melted) which ,we must remember, was far from the perfect storm (pretty average actually) but still gave us second lowest extent and lowest ice volume by the end of the season.

[osmposm]

I know, which is why I tried hard to word it to make clear that I was using a generic "you" rather than a specific "you". Perhaps I should have written "One can spin it ... if one is so inclined", but then one would have sounded like the Queen. :-)

Ah, yes, right, of course...now I see: I thought the 'you' in "You (or GW, or I) can spin that any way you like" was addressed to J1.

One offers one's apologies .

Ossie

[J10]

Ah, yes, right, of course...now I see: I thought the 'you' in "You (or GW, or I) can spin that any way you like" was addressed to J1.

One offers one's apologies .

Ossie

ROFL

The colour scheme used by IJIS is rather confusing, hopefully the colours I use in my graphs are more easily identifiable, if not please let me know.

[tundra]

Apparently the average Arctic temperature has not yet managed to rise above 0c, this is so far the latest date in 50, yes 50 years for this to happen.

Other than that nothing really to report unless you count bleating on and on about what you think might or might not happen.

[Gray-Wolf]

Other than that nothing really to report unless you count bleating on and on about what you think might or might not happen.

Would it not be more of a social bore if we just sat and twiddled until next sept. T.? These (you must admit) are extraordinary times in our life time yet you would have us mute insofar as speculation is concerned?

I'm glad I spout a lot 'cause if we ever met and shared a pint I ,for one, wouldn't be the one sat there at the dregs without speaking! :lol:

We know J1 is on top of the facts so let us have our ruminations eh? :lol:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Would it not be more of a social bore if we just sat and twiddled until next sept. T.? These (you must admit) are extraordinary times in our life time yet you would have us mute insofar as speculation is concerned?

I'm glad I spout a lot 'cause if we ever met and shared a pint I ,for one, wouldn't be the one sat there at the dregs without speaking!

We know J1 is on top of the facts so let us have our ruminations eh?

Tundra

Can you post a link to this 'fact'. Would be useful to have it on here and very interesting too.

GW

I think that if what Tundra has posted is verified then it is far more relevant than any 'musings' wouldn't you say?

BFTP

[tundra]

record keeping25 06 2009 By Joseph D’Aleo, AMS Fellow, CCM

The average arctic temperature is still not above (take your pick) 32°F 0°C 273.15°K–this the latest date in fifty years of record keeping that this has happened. Usually it is beginning to level off now and if it does so, it will stay near freezing on average in the arctic leading to still less melting than last summer which saw a 9% increase in arctic ice than in 2007. H/T to FredM and MarcM

Data from DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute)

See larger image here. Compare with DMI charts in other years here.

[NOTE: as a second source to Joe’s article I’ve added this weather station data from the “North Pole Cam” operated by NOAA. Link is here: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html