Arctic Ice 2009

[Thundery wintry showers]

Doesn't everything arrive at the N Pole as a southerly?

Aye- that's one of the ironies, when you get warm air coming down from the north because it came up to the pole in the other half of the hemisphere!

I agree about the Russian side which has seen well above average temperatures this month. That >20C 850hPa pocket of air that I referred to around midmonth seems to have just stuck around and presumably contributed heavily to the ice melt- it's still there today.

[Iceberg]

A couple or arctic images which might explain mine and GW's concerns.

[doctormog]

A couple or arctic images which might explain mine and GW's concerns.

Given the (slight) positive ice anomaly in the Arctic Basin currently the impact seems to be minimal at this stage of the melt season. I'm sure that could change very quickly. The high Arctic ice seems to be in relatively decent condition so far this season thanks to the cooler than average temperatures there in recent weeks.

If there's going to be anomalous melting this year it looks like being on the Siberian rather than Russian side. From now on (to late August) seems to be the key period in terms of anomalies and large scale melting. Fasten your seatbelts...

[stewfox]

If there's going to be anomalous melting this year it looks like being on the Siberian rather than Russian side. From now on (to late August) seems to be the key period in terms of anomalies and large scale melting. Fasten your seatbelts...

I think the next 3 weeks will tell where this year is going to go. Its trending with the pack at present but the real interesting bit is next 3 weeks. 2007 had gone of the cliff by now

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Might disappoint many if its 'average' and no ice free boat rides this year but im not going with lemmings just yet

Edited July 3, 2009 by stewfox

[J10]

June has passed and the ice extent has pretty much been slightly above the 2003-08 average throughout (except on the 7th). At the start of the month we were 86,000 above average, at the end 88,000 above average. So in terms of 2003-2008 no real story.

Compared with 2008 we are 88,750 above

Compared with 2007 we are 379,218 above

Compared with 2006 we are 497,343 above

Compared with 2005 we are 170,468 above

Compared with 2004 we are 281,563 below

Compared with 2003 we are 236,407 below

Of course recent years are well below historical averages.

[pottyprof]

Thank you Julian, as always..

[stewfox]

June has passed and the ice extent has pretty much been slightly above the 2003-08 average throughout (except on the 7th). At the start of the month we were 86,000 above average, at the end 88,000 above average. So in terms of 2003-2008 no real story.

Compared with 2008 we are 88,750 above

Compared with 2007 we are 379,218 above

Compared with 2006 we are 497,343 above

Compared with 2005 we are 170,468 above

Compared with 2004 we are 281,563 below

Compared with 2003 we are 236,407 below

Of course recent years are well below historical averages.

When you say 'historical averages' , I assume you mean the last 30/40 years.

I would 'assume' there is far more ice now (ie early July) then say 1100AD (early July)or when ever those people with the funny hats popped over to Greenland :lol:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes 10 days away and still a relatively decent picture, thanks for continued update

BFTP

[Methuselah]

When you say 'historical averages' , I assume you mean the last 30/40 years.

I would 'assume' there is far more ice now (ie early July) then say 1100AD (early July)or when ever those people with the funny hats popped over to Greenland :lol:

That's a good question...It seems to me, that the 'warmists' want to relate everything back the LIA, and the 'coolists' to 2003 (or whatever's the most convenient date)?..No wonder we are all so confused! :lol:

[J10]

When you say 'historical averages' , I assume you mean the last 30/40 years.

I would 'assume' there is far more ice now (ie early July) then say 1100AD (early July)or when ever those people with the funny hats popped over to Greenland

Just to confirm, by historical averages, I mean 1979-2008, hope this makes more sense.

That's a good question...It seems to me, that the 'warmists' want to relate everything back the LIA, and the 'coolists' to 2003 (or whatever's the most convenient date)?..No wonder we are all so confuse d! :lol:

IJIS figures only go back to 2003.

[Methuselah]

Just to confirm, by historical averages, I mean 1979-2008, hope this makes more sense.

IJIS figures only go back to 2003.

Thank you J1!

[Iceberg]

Yes 10 days away and still a relatively decent picture, thanks for continued update

BFTP

We lost 150000 yesterday, 100000 the day before we are within around 5 hrs of 2008 (which went on to record the second lowest ice melt on record). We are around the 4th or 5th lowest on record I believe for this time of year.

By almost any standards ice melt is currently falling of a cliff.

If we compare this to 2008 which makes sense, what alot of people wanted and expected was a recovery, this blatently isn't happening yet.

[Iceberg]

Whilst trawling through Modis again, I noticed the ice to the north of Greenland.

As far as I am aware the north pole (as long as we've been watching it, even in 2007) has always been joined directly by ice to Greenland.

The image below taken yesterday and shows that soon this might not be the case. The ice in this areas has always been the strongest, thickest, oldest ice as it's generally protected from melt by the Greenland ice cap, what price the ability to sail around Greenland ? For the NW passage to be open ? and for the NE passage to be open ?

[J10]

Time for the latest update.

On the IJIS figures , the rate of ice loss has fallen back to just over 60,000sqkm per day over the past week. We are still above the 2003-09 average by around 95,000sqkm (and by inference 485,000 below the 1978-2009 average).

On the IJIS figures we are the third highest of the series, below 2003 and 2004, but above all years since that, we are now around 60,000 above the figures in 2008, and 270,000 above the 2007 figures.

So in summary the figures continue to track slightly above last years figures, but as 2007 reaches the time it fall away sharply, the current trend is for 2009 to have a lot more sea ice than 2007 at this stage.

Time for the latest updates,

On the IJIS figures, the rate of ice loss has risen to 95,000sqkm per day over the past week. We are still above the 2003-09 average by around 15,000sqkm.

On the IJIS figures we are the fourth highest of the series, below 2003, 2004 and 2005, but above all years since that, we are now around 50,000 above the figures in 2008, which despite the large increase in fall is only 10,000 less comparatively than last week. We are now some 565,000 above the comparative figures in 2007 and around 395,000 above the same value in 2006.

Contrasty we are now over 400,000 below both 2003 and 2004, and it seems highly unlikely that we will be above these figures again during Summer 2009.

July's recent average (2003-2008) was 870,000 below the longer term average.

[J10]

We lost 150000 yesterday, 100000 the day before we are within around 5 hrs of 2008 (which went on to record the second lowest ice melt on record). We are around the 4th or 5th lowest on record I believe for this time of year.

By almost any standards ice melt is currently falling of a cliff.

If we compare this to 2008 which makes sense, what alot of people wanted and expected was a recovery, this blatently isn't happening yet.

Nothing factually incorrect there, however the cliff comment is a subjective opinion, we are the 4th highest in the series 2003-2008. At this time of year 2008 was not doing that (comparatively) badly, at the end of July it was above the figure in 2005 and 2006 albeit slightly. The 2008 figure at the end of July was 7,203,594, 2005 was 7,045,938 while 2006 was 7,143,281 while 2007 was 6,375,313.

The final figures for 2005 was 5,530,094 while for 2006 5,913,271. So during July so long as the ice extent remains above generally above 2008, no real inference can be taken as to the likely outcome with regard to the figures in 2005,2006 and 2008. Of course this does not apply to 2003 and 2004, as 2008 was well below these figures at this stage.

Experts opinion for this summer http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/...report_june.php

[Wynn D Woo]

Thanks for the impartial input Jackone, others would do well to take note of the way you post info as it is, rather than spinning all the time.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Does anyone discern a turn down in the IJIS line over the past week?

My piece of paper (on my screen extending the line) tells me that , should the same rate of loss continue, we should cross 07' before mid Aug. Should the rate of loss continue to accelerate (as it should this time of season) then we may cross 07' before Aug.

[J10]

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Does anyone discern a turn down in the IJIS line over the past week?

My piece of paper (on my screen extending the line) tells me that , should the same rate of loss continue, we should cross 07' before mid Aug. Should the rate of loss continue to accelerate (as it should this time of season) then we may cross 07' before Aug.

Over the past week the rate of decline has increased you are correct to say to 95,000sq ft on average per day, if this continued, we would cross 2007 on August the 17th.

However it is also true to say that over the past week, we have gone from 280,938sqft above 2007 to 565,625sqft above 2007, the surplus of ice this year has doubled over 2007.

Early July has seen the highest ice loss over the past couple of years, and it tends to drop off slightly into Late July and especially into Late August when the ice amounts drop off quickly. As a result is seems unlikely that the current ice drop off will continue at this extent into August, however if it does so, I will be the first to congratulate you for getting the figures correct.

Figures as per new spreadsheet attached.

[reef]

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NE...e.color.000.png

Theres going to be some big losses over the Russian and Alaskan sectors in the next few weeks. These areas have a distinct lack of cold air present at the moment and with high pressure resident, will be recieving quite a bit of sunshine. The area has also suffered from frequent warm shots from the south over the last few weeks. It will be interesting to see where we end up by the month's end.

[songster]

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Does anyone discern a turn down in the IJIS line over the past week?

My piece of paper (on my screen extending the line) tells me that , should the same rate of loss continue, we should cross 07' before mid Aug. Should the rate of loss continue to accelerate (as it should this time of season) then we may cross 07' before Aug.

Yeah, and if you extended the line we saw in the second week of June, we'd have ended the season with 10 km^2 of ice remaining. What does that have to do with the price of eggs? Extrapolating from a trend of a day or two isn't even Nostradamus-levels of scientific rigour <_<

The next few weeks (not hours!) are of critical interest, since that will tell us whether we recapitulate the 2007 "cliff". After that, August will also be of great interest in terms of the continued melt-out of weak first-year ice.

[Iceberg]

We know the Hudson ice always melts each summer, this winter it's holding up quite well, currently 400-500000 sq km.

However in 2007 at this time see the pic below there was no hudson ice left.

What does this tell us.?

Well if we exclude the hudson from the figures and just look at ice in the arctic ocean, we have roughly the same amount as 2007 ??? the lowest year on record.

Also btw looking at past Greenland ice through modis I am even more concerned now..

We know the Hudson ice always melts each summer, this winter it's holding up quite well, currently 400-500000 sq km.

However in 2007 at this time see the pic below there was no hudson ice left.

What does this tell us.?

Well if we exclude the hudson from the figures and just look at ice in the arctic ocean, we have roughly the same amount as 2007 ??? the lowest year on record.

Also btw looking at past Greenland ice through modis I am even more concerned now..

[MR EXTREMES]

how exciting a record being broken in the arctic should make for more global warming stories,

weve suffered massive loss of ice up there in the past and it never really effected anyone apart from the wild life there.

so in all honesty does it really matter most people knew it was going to melt away giving ice free summers and that global warming is something thats happening so might aswell get used to it,

as we have seen dont look like where ever going to get the arctic back to its 80s 70s 60s extent.

and global warming is not going to go away.

[Iceberg]

Sorry to labour a point but I think this will make interesting watching over the next week or two.

This is the north greenland pack less than a week ago compared to yesterday.

Quite a difference, I think it might be good to compare again in a weeks time to see if Greenland becomes detached from the Arctic ice.

[Chris Knight]

Sorry to labour a point but I think this will make interesting watching over the next week or two.

This is the north greenland pack less than a week ago compared to yesterday.

Quite a difference, I think it might be good to compare again in a weeks time to see if Greenland becomes detached from the Arctic ice.

It appears that the cloud in the earlier image obscured most of the features of interest in the later one. I agree that the leads are extensive though, in the area where the ice pack is the oldest, and potentially thickest.

If you look through the gaps in the clouds of the earlier image, the leads were already there:

Edited July 5, 2009 by Chris Knight

[Iceberg]

I agree Chris, that crack has been working it's way up and seems to go on for over a thousand miles.

Another massive ice melt yesterday with 2009 now falling below 2008 and 2005 with only 2007 and 2006 below it.