Arctic Ice 2009

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks like the graph is continueing to steepen.

Hey Ice! thanks for the reminder about the Hudson and the great Lakes. Some sites were even watching the great lakes freeze over last winter so if they have remaining ice it will tend to skew the figures until they melt out completely (apparently it is uncommon for the lakes to freeze).

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We know the Hudson ice always melts each summer, this winter it's holding up quite well, currently 400-500000 sq km.

However in 2007 at this time see the pic below there was no hudson ice left.

What does this tell us.?

Well if we exclude the hudson from the figures and just look at ice in the arctic ocean, we have roughly the same amount as 2007 ??? the lowest year on record.

It tells us that it is cold there! Incredible post really....

BFTP

[Iceberg]

yep sure does, incredible then that Arctic ice is as low as it is !.

Do you really think it will stay cold enough to keep ice in the Hudson ?.

[Gray-Wolf]

yep sure does, incredible then that Arctic ice is as low as it is !.

Do you really think it will stay cold enough to keep ice in the Hudson ?.

I get the feeling that only the extreme 'coolists' will be focused on such things by the end of Aug, the rest of us will be looking north of there.

Will this be the first major El-Nino since we started to measure the Arctic Amplification signal? I know we had a little El-Nino in the early 00's but the phenomena of A.A. had only just started being noted back then. The past two cold winters, whilst doing nothing to halt the ice loss in the Arctic, have given the coolists a platform from which to comment from.Would A.A. and the El-Nino delay the start of winter re-freeze this year and silence such noises??

[Iceberg]

It would be interest to view a graph that plotted the a 3 month ENSO signal for summer and autumn and then plot the first date that say 1M sq Km of ice was added, to see if ENSO effected the refreeze of arctic ice.

I don't have time unfortunately at the moment and I think you would need to go back at least 20 years to get any useful data.

I don't really have a feel either way as to the effects of ENSO on ice creation, but it would be interest to see, as would a plot of the prevailing AO signal.

[Admiral_Bobski]

Will this be the first major El-Nino since we started to measure the Arctic Amplification signal?

The last time I looked (on Saturday), the forecast was for a weak to moderate El Nino. Not exactly "major"...

CB

[Iceberg]

They give an update CB later today, which I will post in the ENSO watching thread.

FWIW though the figures being recorded now are already the highest since 2002 and could be the highest since 98 soon.

[Filski]

Will be fun to watch the coolists change from a 'ice pack is recovering due to global cooling' to a ' it only melted because of freak spell of warm weather like 2007'.

Pass the popcorn.

[Methuselah]

Will be fun to watch the coolists change from a 'ice pack is recovering due to global cooling' to a ' it only melted because of freak spell of warm weather like 2007'.

Pass the popcorn.

Aye mate. The Modern Hymn Sheets are selling out!

[osmposm]

....Well if we exclude the hudson from the figures and just look at ice in the arctic ocean, we have roughly the same amount as 2007 ??? the lowest year on record.

Ice - as you know, I share your concerns for the health of Arctic Ice, and am not an optimist about where it's heading. However, I don't think you should be selectively excluding/including certain areas - especially the Hudson - to make a particular point.....in fact a year or two ago, when the Hudson was slow to freeze one autumn/winter, the exact inverse argument to yours was used by soemone to try and show that everything was fine, along the lines of "The Hudson is normally much more frozen than this by now, and if you add the 'missing' Hudson ice on to the grand total, look how high the ice level would have been."

The point I made then I will therefore repeat to you. You cannot really - at least not usefully - take one area or another out of the equation, because the airflows around the various Northern Hemisphere weather systems that cause some ice melt areas to be late, and others early, are, of course, interrelated; and a warm plume in one sector will inevitably be balanced by a cold plunge in another - as is presumably happening now.

Looking at individual areas is interesting. Looking at the total picture is educative. Mixing the two is dangerous.

Ossie

PS G-W, the same applies to the ice in the Great Lakes, though I am surprised to learn that they are included in the Arctic Ice measurements. I'm not denying it, I'd just assumed that bodies of fresh water were excluded from the figures: does anyone know for sure?

[Gray-Wolf]

The last time I looked (on Saturday), the forecast was for a weak to moderate El Nino. Not exactly "major"...

CB

I'm staying with the Hansen forecast myself. Not only did they predict well in advance they also re-affirmed their forecast whilst we were all Hmmm'ing and Aaah'ing about a continuation of the last La-Nina

PS G-W, the same applies to the ice in the Great Lakes, though I am surprised to learn that they are included in the Arctic Ice measurements. I'm not denying it, I'd just assumed that bodies of fresh water were excluded from the figures: does anyone know for sure?

Hi Ossie! I'm not sure that the great lakes would be included as I don't think they fall within 'The Arctic'

You are right that we should all play by 'the rules' when looking at ice extent.If folk seek to include/exclude areas then we should do it with all the figures (IMHO). Seeing as the Arctic appears to have remained anomalously 'warm' over winter (NSIDC figures) you have to wonder about where the cold air displaced to (I think we got a bit of it......as your Avatar shows!) and the North American continent seemed to cop for a bit. If we are to look at ice extents extending then surely this is best done when the pole is as cold as it aught to be whilst the extension takes place.A warm pole and then anomalously chilly further south raises questions in my kind of mind.

[MR EXTREMES]

i dont know BFTP how you dont get annoyed by some of thease posts it almost like they want this to happen.

but if im honest i do care if it does but theres nothing no one can do so why does it always have to become so dramatic.

so if people say record ice loss this summer is going to happen add in the dramatic el nino then id start to say its sounding like ian brown.

ive herd very little of thease major developments that some posters are talking about

[Admiral_Bobski]

I'm staying with the Hansen forecast myself. Not only did they predict well in advance they also re-affirmed their forecast whilst we were all Hmmm'ing and Aaah'ing about a continuation of the last La-Nina

Could you post a link to that please, GW? The only Hansen forecast I have come across in a (brief) look on Google is his prediction for a "Super El Nino" (his words) in 2006. Which didn't happen.

CB

[Iceberg]

Ice - as you know, I share your concerns for the health of Arctic Ice, and am not an optimist about where it's heading. However, I don't think you should be selectively excluding/including certain areas - especially the Hudson - to make a particular point.....in fact a year or two ago, when the Hudson was slow to freeze one autumn/winter, the exact inverse argument to yours was used by soemone to try and show that everything was fine, along the lines of "The Hudson is normally much more frozen than this by now, and if you add the 'missing' Hudson ice on to the grand total, look how high the ice level would have been."

I agree ossie. I think the main point was simply that the main difference between now and 2007 is not the state of the Arctic ice, but mostly the ice in the Hudson.

I'll leave people to draw conclusions from that, but the melting of the Hudson over the next few weeks will leave an interesting impression on the ice extent graphs.

[Solar Cycles]

I'm staying with the Hansen forecast myself. Not only did they predict well in advance they also re-affirmed their forecast whilst we were all Hmmm'ing and Aaah'ing about a continuation of the last La-Nina

Hi Ossie! I'm not sure that the great lakes would be included as I don't think they fall within 'The Arctic'

You are right that we should all play by 'the rules' when looking at ice extent.If folk seek to include/exclude areas then we should do it with all the figures (IMHO). Seeing as the Arctic appears to have remained anomalously 'warm' over winter (NSIDC figures) you have to wonder about where the cold air displaced to (I think we got a bit of it......as your Avatar shows!) and the North American continent seemed to cop for a bit. If we are to look at ice extents extending then surely this is best done when the pole is as cold as it aught to be whilst the extension takes place.A warm pole and then anomalously chilly further south raises questions in my kind of mind.

Well if Hansel say's it's so, then it must be right!

[tundra]

i dont know BFTP how you dont get annoyed by some of thease posts it almost like they want this to happen.

but if im honest i do care if it does but theres nothing no one can do so why does it always have to become so dramatic.

so if people say record ice loss this summer is going to happen add in the dramatic el nino then id start to say its sounding like ian brown.

ive herd very little of thease major developments that some posters are talking about <_<

How can you get annoyed at such silly wind up posts, read the posts for what they are then you can not help but laugh.

[Gray-Wolf]

Could you post a link to that please, GW? The only Hansen forecast I have come across in a (brief) look on Google is his prediction for a "Super El Nino" (his words) in 2006. Which didn't happen.

CB

How's about 'El-Nino Modoki'?

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,...=rss-topstories

whilst I search for the "late09/early10' El-Nino forecast (I'm hoping I pinned it on the right guy!!!)

Maybe the old PDO-ve could become the new PDO Modoki?

[Chris Knight]

How's about 'El-Nino Modoki'?

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,...=rss-topstories

whilst I search for the "late09/early10' El-Nino forecast (I'm hoping I pinned it on the right guy!!!)

Maybe the old PDO-ve could become the new PDO Modoki?

Sounds like a small Japanese scooter

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks like some more pools of warm air will move into the Siberian sector over the coming days, causing more ice in that area to melt rapidly. On the other hand a strong vortex is setting up over the pole which should keep things reasonably cold and unsettled there, good for ice retention.

[Gray-Wolf]

Looks like some more pools of warm air will move into the Siberian sector over the coming days, causing more ice in that area to melt rapidly. On the other hand a strong vortex is setting up over the pole which should keep things reasonably cold and unsettled there, good for ice retention.

When you take away the 'girdle' holding the pack in place it leads to greater mobility within the pack so ice from the areas more favourable for retention drifts into less favourable areas. As the pack opens it reveals more and more dark water and lessens the overall albedo of the pack also leading to enhanced melt rates.

The merry-go-round at the pole (that you forecast) may well lead to the above as cyclonic conditions produce higher winds and more drift.

[Roger J Smith]

I believe that Hudson Bay always thaws at some stage, even in the coldest years. Back in the famous 1816 year without a summer set-up, apparently some lakes in central Quebec still had ice in early July. It is not quite that anomalous in the region this year, but everyone over here is complaining about what a cold, wet and backward year it has been (since April in particular, and applying to most of Canada except my part, BC, and the northern US from Montana east to New England.

There has been a pretty persistent cutoff low over Ontario much of that time, sometimes it relaxes enough to permit a two or three day warm spell, but then it comes back again and for example, June was about 2.5 C deg below normal in many places from the Dakotas to New England. Hudson Bay is getting the fairly cool circulation from the northeast around the top of that cutoff low, which is why there is still more ice than usual (note it is melting gradually from the north to the south, which happens because of the circulation in from slightly warmer Hudson Strait.

In terms of the longer-range considerations, I don't think this means all that much. The rest of the arctic ice pack could now move towards any postulated end result by September without this Hudson Bay anomaly counting in the result because you can be 99% sure it will be ice free by then. All the 15 C water pouring in from the various rivers around the "Bay" which is really a Sea by nature, pretty well guarantees that ice cannot maintain itself much longer. It is, after all, at the same latitude generally as the UK and if it stays cloudy to prevent insolation, then the predictable rainfall will accelerate melting too. Also, Al Gore on his speedboat collecting all those polar bear cubs, that has an effect. :lol:

The Hudson expedition that wintered in James Bay 1610-1611 is said to have sailed out of James Bay in June (1611) and at this point Henry Hudson was set adrift with seven others in a smaller vessel. The point here is that in 2009, they would still be waiting to leave James Bay. :lol:

Edited July 8, 2009 by Roger J Smith

[Iceberg]

Sorry to labour a point but I think this will make interesting watching over the next week or two.

This is the north greenland pack less than a week ago compared to yesterday.

Quite a difference, I think it might be good to compare again in a weeks time to see if Greenland becomes detached from the Arctic ice.

Even after just 3 days the break up of the ice there is rapid. The pictures below show the ice last night and the ice when I took the last picture 3 days ago.

[doctormog]

Even after just 3 days the break up of the ice there is rapid. The pictures below show the ice last night and the ice when I took the last picture 3 days ago.

Yet despite that the Arctic Basin Ice area is significantly higher than last year at the same point so any impact is rather limited at the moment:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...m.region.1.html

Mind you I guess it will be another case of every silver ling has a cloud?

Perhaps your predictions will come true, perhaps not. :lol:

P.S. Re. Hudson Bay - it's actually a little below average in terms of ice area currently and hasn't really been significantly above at any point:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.13.html

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009JC005312.shtml

Above is an extract from the "Journal of Geophysical Research" covering a study over 5 years of M.Y. ice and single year ice.

Did you know the remaining M.Y. ice decreased by 42% since 2005??? Pretty awful eh? Single year thickness displayed no changes in thickness over the period but ,as we all know, it's extent varied.

As such the loss in volume is down to the loss of M.Y. ice.......maybe the folk who live by 'ice extent' need to take note of how important the loss of perennial actually is and monitor it's losses more closely. :lol:

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Roger thanks for interesting report. I tend not to read the same old planet is melting overhype. It clearly is gnawing that the ice hasn't melted as 'some' would have liked. Plenty of time to go and to monitor.

BFTP