What The Weather Will Be Like - In 2080

[Mondy]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20090607/tuk-wh...80-45dbed5.html

Weather experts have looked into their crystal balls and come up with what they think temperatures will be like in 2080, and it is going to be very hot for some.

:huh:

Model in, garbage out.

Plus, since when was Hull in the North East?

There will be also be storms and floods in the winter in north-eastern towns such as Hull.

Edited June 8, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[MR EXTREMES]

scoarcher lol,

well i think i wont be around then lol.

so that wont matter but my kids might.

well if this cooldown or cooler summers and winters becomes regular thing then they might have to rewrite this story.

typical press overcooked story lol get it :huh: B)

[morfius]

Unless i've been living on another planet, as far as i'm aware, the maximum for London in July is not 31C, it's more like 23 or 24C.

Secondly, in no way will the July maximum rise to 41C in London - that is a typical July maximum for Las Vegas (which is in the middle of the desert!)

[J07]

The whole thing I find odd. No matter how much temperatures rise, it's going to be very hard to maintain a Mediterranean climate at 50 degrees of latitude. It would need a change in the global circulation, you still have to have a subtropical ridge somewhere and westerlies somewhere. If the forecasts suggest the Med gets hotter and drier...fair enough, but I would have thought this would lead to strengthening of westerlies over the UK. In other words, making the east warmer and drier and the west wetter and milder.

I suppose the idea is that with Europe as a whole warming, this pushes the polar front further north and naturally leads to ridging over the UK. I'm just not convinced.

When they talk about "maximum" temperatures I think they mean "the highest maximum you can expect in any given summer". So 31C is probably not a bad bet for London right now. 41C in 2080 is quite believable considering an exceptional heatwave will give temps of 35C or more in the southeast in current times.

[Mondy]

Tbh, they couldn't even predict the last two summers! http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/08/met-...drowning-again/

Still, I suppose they have to justify the £30m spent on a new super computer. http://www.itpro.co.uk/610965/met-office-g...n-supercomputer

Edited June 9, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[Thundery wintry showers]

As per usual the article looks like it has been exaggerated in sensationalist fashion, because sensationalism sells more easily. The argument "you can't predict tomorrow so how can you predict the future" is a poor one though, because long term predictions look at general probabilities not specifics. Would it be reasonable to say to a football pundit, "your forecast that Man Utd will win the Premiership is groundless because you said Man Utd would win yesterday and they only drew"?

As for Hull's location, it depends on how you define "north east". North-east England is generally considered to constitute anywhere from Yorkshire northwards, but in some cases it can more specifically refer to the area north of Yorkshire, with Yorkshire being categorised as Yorkshire, as per the BBC bulletins. I don't think calling Hull a north-eastern town is unreasonable if you are talking about England.

[Methuselah]

A fine and balanced response, Ian - as usual! :lol:

I do wish that these deniers would accept that weather and climate are two different things!

[Phil UK]

Unless I live to be 110, I won't really care unless I an cryogenically stored after my death then re-awakened in July 2080, then say. "Blimey! Bit hot today innit?"

All pie in the sky to me. It's like the METO predicting that it'll be a white Christmas 2009 all over the UK and Ireland. This is what bugs me to the hilt when you get these 'doom mongers' saying that this and that will happen.

An example...

2007... METO predicted the HOTTEST Summer on record.

Well they were half right with "the record" bit. More like the coolest and wettest more like. 2008 didn't fare much better.

Food for thought. Media corrupts the mind. Think carefully about it.

Phil.

[Essan]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20090607/tuk-wh...80-45dbed5.html

Model in, garbage out.

Plus, since when was Hull in the North East?

Since when was weather and climate the same thing? We really, really, really must stop taking notice of anything in the media. I bet next week they'll be telling us how a car insurance firm led us to victory in WWII and that scottish mountains partake in the Grand National ......

Still, fair easier for people to critcise the met office over something they didn't say/do than what they did, eh?

2007... METO predicted the HOTTEST Summer on record.

Perhaps the Metro did, the the Met office predicted nothing of the sort!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20070411.html

This is exactly what I mean about not believing what you read in the papers!

[Methuselah]

Thank you for that, Essan...

[Phil UK]

I bet next week they'll be telling us how a car insurance firm led us to victory in WWII and that scottish mountains partake in the Grand National ......

Well, when they find a Lancaster bomber on the Moon. Support for Gordon Brown, car insurance did lead us to victory in WWII. They annoyed the German media on daytime TV adverts so forced to surrender.

Perhaps the Metro did, the the Met office predicted nothing of the sort!

Oh yes they did! They must have backtracked after the event. Easy to alter a website comment after all if you have the knowhow. ;-)

Phil.

[Methuselah]

Oh yes they did! They must have backtracked after the event. Easy to alter a website comment after all if you have the knowhow. ;-)

Phil.

Where?

[Phil UK]

I'll try to find the source, Mr Tattum. but I know what I saw. Bearing in mind it was also a rather lousy year for sunspots. (Many sunspots = hot weather... No sunspots = indifferent weather) in 2007/2008, the 11 year sunspot cycle was receding.

Now 1998 was also a cool Summer. co-incidence? Sunspot minimum at that time? But SC24 hasn't quite kicked off yet and probably won't until around mid 2010. Just sporadic ones at this time which last for 2 or 3 days max, and only tiny ones at that.

Think about this...

2003 saw the highest temperatures ever recorded in the UK, co-incidence that sunspots were going barmy during the now old cycle SC23.

Phil.

[MR EXTREMES]

Well, when they find a Lancaster bomber on the Moon. Support for Gordon Brown, car insurance did lead us to victory in WWII. They annoyed the German media on daytime TV adverts so forced to surrender.

Oh yes they did! They must have backtracked after the event. Easy to alter a website comment after all if you have the knowhow. ;-)

Phil.

yes i agree they been back tracking for years.

and the met office like the bbc and ipcc got a rep to keep,

now they could never possibley get things wrong now could they haha.

of coarse there get it right from time to time but as for the artical typical media scaremongering.

just as likely to freeze up,

remember where not in a true solar minimum yet so who knows.

i apoligise phil uk i did not read your last post my thoughts are as yours and i also recall the met office calling a hot hot summer and they where very wrong.

Edited June 11, 2009 by badboy657

[Methuselah]

I'll try to find the source, Mr Tattum. but I know what I saw. Phil.

Thanks Mr UK!

[Phil UK]

Mr Tattum. Although not having much time to myself this week so far for various reasons...

I did come across this, as promised... 2007 HOT HOT HOT

But they must have obtained the info from METO.

apoligise phil uk i did not read your last post my thoughts are as yours and i also recall the met office calling a hot hot summer and they where very wrong.

Badboy657... No worries.

Phil.

[Methuselah]

Thanks Monseur UK...I'm chastened! :lol:

[CardiffStorm]

Although I believe that 'climate change' may be happening (not necessarily due to human activity) I certainly dont understand how they can predict what is going to happen in 70 years. Nobody on Earth has ever experienced 'climate change' so there is absolutely no way of knowing what will happen. The media are just scare mongering (sorry if spelt wrong).

Even if temperatures did rise by 6 degrees I'm pretty sure humanity could come up with a solution and nature can and does adapt very quickly.

[Mondy]

BBC bias on the topic of AGW

A fine and balanced response, Ian - as usual!

I do wish that these deniers would accept that weather and climate are two different things!

I do wish the last three out of four responses from yourself weren't "thanking people" Kinda adds nothing to the debate - I see now why your "post count" is high! LOL

[Optimus Prime]

Nobody on Earth has ever experienced 'climate change' so there is absolutely no way of knowing what will happen.

How about comparing the years from the 80s to 90s, that was climate change.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Although I believe that 'climate change' may be happening (not necessarily due to human activity) I certainly dont understand how they can predict what is going to happen in 70 years. Nobody on Earth has ever experienced 'climate change' so there is absolutely no way of knowing what will happen. The media are just scare mongering (sorry if spelt wrong).

Actually we have, but not on the scale that is projected for the future. Temperatures have risen by about 1C, snow has declined substantially and hot summers have got more frequent. Homogeneously warm springs are more common nowadays- look at 2007 and 2009 for example.

We can guess at what will happen in the future using climate models, although those are controversial- there is no good way to test how accurate they really are.

Even if temperatures did rise by 6 degrees I'm pretty sure humanity could come up with a solution and nature can and does adapt very quickly.

Unfortunately I see that as symptomatic of head-burial "assume everything will be ok so we don't have to worry". Chances are, in the long run we probably could adapt to a rise of 6C in the space of 100 years, but at least a couple of generations may have to go through an extremely painful transition period when the humans were trying to devise ways to adapt to such a big change.

Remember that global warming of 6C does not simply mean that the temperature baseline rises by 6C, all kinds of changes are implied within the atmospheric system, most of which are prone to considerable uncertainty- such as changing rainfall patterns and more severe rain of the sort many parts saw in summer 2007.

[Phil UK]

Homogeneously warm springs are more common nowadays- look at 2007 and 2009 for example.

You forgot 1995, Ian.

2007, Yep, was ok to begin with but ended up as being one of the coolest and wettest Summers, (or call it extended Autumn on record and 2008 wasn't all that much better either).

Looking at the general weather patterns for the next week or so... Have we had our Summer already? That comment probably belongs in another thread but I do urge you to remember this...

Sunspot low... "Poor Summers (2007/2008)"

Sunspot maxima... "Hot and thundery Summers (1976/1995)"

I could go further back but I use the above for our younger members. Co-incidence?

Phil.

[Optimus Prime]

(or call it extended Autumn on record and 2008 wasn't all that much better either).

With a CET 15.1c, 15.2c and 15.4c that would be a damn hot Autumn. It was a summer, just not to everyones liking. Spring 2008 was also on the warm side, on a par with 1995 I'd say.