Met Office Winter Forecast

[Terminal Moraine]

I seem to remember the Met' Office usually issue a preliminary winter forecast around this time of year, based on various parameters in May.

Does anyone know when it's due out, or indeed if there's going to be one at all?

[Nick L]

Crikey last winter only just seems to have finished

Not sure, I thought it was usually around late June, but it should be soon anyway.

[Don]

They normally issue their initial thoughts around the first week of July, so not long to wait.

[skifreak]

Any news on this? Have searched the Meto site to no avail.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Yes I was wondering about this as well I think its usually about now based on May SST's is it not?

[jo200199]

How can they give a P. forecast? They can't even get day to day right lol

[Methuselah]

Ah havnae found it yet!

[Nick L]

I think they are shying away after getting it wrong last winter

[Don]

They should release it sometime during this coming week going by recent years. I have a distinct feeling it won't be pointing towards a cold one!

[stormchaser1]

Lets get summer out the way first,

But in my opinion for what its worth, im looking at a colder winter than last year , and last year it was the coldest winter in 13 years

[jo200199]

I'm going for a white Christmas

[Solar Cycles]

I can gurantee it will be another forecast, with AGW factored into the equation. Thus making it completely busted. AGAIN!!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Lets get summer out the way first,

But in my opinion for what its worth, im looking at a colder winter than last year , and last year it was the coldest winter in 13 years

Hi Nigel

Agreed, the way the pattern looks to emerge is the opposite to what we have been getting this summer. The above average sector over Europe/N Europe may become the below during winter. I anticipate at this very early stage that blocking to N quadrant to show its hand fairly robustly. Long way to go and El Nino worth keeping eye on. I'll be looking for a decline come start of winter.

Hi Dave see tha you are reading, good to see you around. Stew...going to do an early guestimate?

BFTP

[noggin]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

......."first assessment of prospects will be issued by 11.00 on 23rd July".

That's this coming Thursday then.......I have put a big note on my calendar.

See you all then!

[Nick L]

Let's hope it says mild. Last winter they said it was going to be mild - it was anything but. This summer they have forecasted a barbeque one - not really so far!

[azores92]

Let's hope it says mild. Last winter they said it was going to be mild - it was anything but. This summer they have forecasted a barbeque one - not really so far!

to be fair to them, there were a good few days at the end of june where the temperatures were exceptionally high, and in july so far, it hasnt been raining all the time, as there have been pleasant days mixed in with the not so pleasant ones. i wouldnt be getting excited over their forecast, as they will tend to play it safe by perhaps saying temperatures will be near to or slightly above average, and probably similar with precipitation.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Just had an e-mail back from the Meto and it will be released on Thursday, yay!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Just had an e-mail back from the Meto and it will be released on Thursday, yay!

I wouldn't hold your breath!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Just had an e-mail back from the Meto and it will be released on Thursday, yay!

Let the countdown begin !!

Autumn starts in 40 days !!!!

[Optimus Prime]

Temperature are likely to be either near normal or above normal.

I can predict into the future!

[londonsnow]

yes the meto winter forecast is issued at 11am on the 23rd, according to their website. will it suggest a little above or near average temperatures and average rainfall? or will it suggest several spells of deep cold and blizzards for everyone, especially around christmas. i wonder...

[Don]

I know it's forecasting a 'forecast', but I would be suprised if they predict a colder than average Winter, partly because of the developing El Nino conditions. My best guess as to how it will go would be something like this:

'The early signals point to the UK Winter 2009/10 being more likely to be warmer and wetter than average and warmer than Winter 2008/09, but with the risk of colder weather at times'

We will soon see!

[Solar Cycles]

I know it's forecasting a 'forecast', but I would be suprised if they predict a colder than average Winter, partly because of the developing El Nino conditions. My best guess as to how it will go would be something like this:

'The early signals point to the UK Winter 2009/10 being more likely to be warmer and wetter than average and warmer than Winter 2008/09, but with the risk of colder weather at times'

We will soon see!

I predict it will be way off the mark, as they consistently factor in AGW IMO!!

PS, Is it me or does any one else hate this new layout!

[karyo]

I will not pay much attention to the Met Office forecast! Simply because they got the autumn 2008 wrong (they went for above average and it was slightly below), the winter forecast wrong (they expected slightly above and it was below average), and the spring forecast (they went for a below average spring and it was above average).

That's a pretty bad record don't you think?

Karyo

[Don]

I will not pay much attention to the Met Office forecast! Simply because they got the autumn 2008 wrong (they went for above average and it was slightly below), the winter forecast wrong (they expected slightly above and it was below average), and the spring forecast (they went for a below average spring and it was above average).

That's a pretty bad record don't you think?

Karyo

They haven't done too well with their seasonal forecasts this last year it has to be said.