What Will Be The Highest Temperature Recorded In The Uk Up To 31st August?

[Cookie]

anything above 25oC here would be very hot!

as for the whole uk maybe somewhere in the south east at 36oC

[reef]

anything above 25oC here would be very hot!

as for the whole uk maybe somewhere in the south east at 36oC

Even here 30C is a rather rare beast. My records go back to 1982 and theres only been 9 days where 30C has been reached, just one of which was above 31C.

I think people underestimate how difficult it actually is to achieve above 34C in this country. You need very hot 850hPa air (17C or above ideally), total unbroken sunshine, preferrably dry ground and no breeze. A good build up of heat over the continent for a week or so before helps aswell (i.e like August 2003). Just like proper winter easterlies, these are very rare beasts (though the odds gradually stack in favour of the hot conditions over time with a warming climate Ill admit).

[Rustynailer]

Mid July 33C somewhere in the Channel islands, maybe Jersey.

I think some areas of the UK especially the Southern will have a pretty strong drought. I don't think the temperatures will be record breaking though.

Russ.

[Derp Patrol]

I think that anything above the low 30s would be pushing it.. anything over 30C will most likely only be in the south east.. 33C will probably be the max temp, anything higher would require exceptional charts

[SteveB]

I think we will get over 30c this summer. Probably in london some where

32c

[GRHinPorts]

Mid July 33C somewhere in the Channel islands, maybe Jersey.

I think some areas of the UK especially the Southern will have a pretty strong drought. I don't think the temperatures will be record breaking though.

Russ.

Yes....The point about drought is should definitely not be underestimated IMO.

[Don]

I can't see us having record breaking temperatures this Summer. June so far has been pretty average and nothing like 2003 or 2006. However, I think we'll certainly have some hot spells during July and August with higher temperatures that the last two Summers. My hunch for the highest temperature this year is 34C at Heathrow or Gravesend.

Edited June 21, 2009 by Don

[BristolBaggie]

29............Another cock up by the Met Office and their useless predicter data machines a warmish summer but no extreme heat or heatwave this year. :lol: :lol:

[damianslaw]

Have a feeling that we will see a 33 degree figure at some stage during late July - early August with a very slim outside chance of a 34 degree figure.

Accolade somewhere in the south east of england no doubt.

[Summer of 95]

The trouble with these "average" (ie three fine days and a thunderstorm, a fortnight of mixed cool weather, three fine days and a thunderstorm again) summers is that they do tend to be prone to "Southeast versus the rest" weather so I'll go for 34.2 somewhere within a 50 mile radius of central London.

For other regions:

East (of M1 and south of M62): 32.3 in Cambridgeshire, Lincs or Norfolk- these counties seem to share much of the heat in SE-takes all scenarios.

Midlands: 31.6 on the eastern fringes of the region- Leics/Northants/Rutland/Notts.

(WEST Midlands: 31.2 at Birmingham airport)

SW: 31.2 on the Dorset coast. Cornwall and Devon lucky to get a 30.

Wales: misses out big-time in these summers; 28.7 at Prestatyn

NW: also misses out; if we get a warm E'ly for a few days Manchester might hit 28 but if it's all westerly will be 26.5 around Chester.

NE (north of M62): 27.8 near York

Scotland: may have been reached already but another easterly could mean a 27-28 in the W Highlands

N Ireland: 27 or thereabouts

[VillagePlank]

I think we're looking for a warm/hot end of July, or all of August; the usual places will exceed a spot temp of 30C, perhaps getting, even, to 32C on an exceptional day.

The signs will be extended period of dryness (soil temps drying out) for perhaps six to nine weeks, followed by an invasion of the Azores high.

Edited June 24, 2009 by VillagePlank

[ribster]

33c, because Mickey Mouse said it will be :lol:

[Coast]

Accolade somewhere in the south east of england no doubt.

I'll go for 31.5 DgC in Gravesend at the end of July.

That should start the Daily Express on hosepipe ban alert!

www.mirror.co.uk

Oh no! The Daily Mirror have beaten them to it!!!!! :lol:

[TEITS]

Im going for 35C possibly at Heathrow.

Having said this if model outputs continue as they are we could see 32C during Tues in some favoured locations.

[Derp Patrol]

I change my prediction from 33C to 35C. Next week could see temps in the low 30s, and this pattern looks like repeating itself so I would not rule out higher temps being reached later on in summer as the continent warms up.

[Upgrade]

i also think 35-37 degrees will be hit this summer. just a hunch. Its going to be 32 degrees somewhere in the next day or two.

i thought the last two summers past meant we'd never see a hot day again. however now its nearly 30 again and i struggle to keep cool, i remember that its not all good once it starts going 30+ . anyone else feel slightly fearful of a week of 32+ ? i certainly do. its so hard to sleep.

[Derp Patrol]

I had my windows in my room wide open last night and next week it does look muggy during the nights..

If this set up had been a month later then it would probably have been hotter, maybe 34C-37C instead of 31C-33C, so if this pattern repeats we could be in for a hot summer

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

well the hottest temperature so far is about 28C (i recorded 28.0C a couple of days ago) and it looks like the next week should be hotter atleast 30C and were only in June. The last 2 summers haven't seen temps above 30C so we are likely in fact to set a 3 year record within the next few days. Although all the months so far since feb. have been above average July could be below, it could even be above but with no significant hot spell. Really it's too Early to know..

but i'd say..

above 30C = almost certain (this week)

above 35C = possible.

above 40C = <1% chance this year.

[damianslaw]

Still sticking with my thoughts that 34 degrees will be the top temperature this summer and one which could easily occur next Thursday or Friday.

We may well see a repeat episode during the rest of the summer but I don't expect temps to climb any higher than this.

[Derp Patrol]

Later on in summer the chance of extreme heat does get higher though. As long as the jet stays up where it should be in Iceland we have a chance of a good summer, last 2 years we only just reached 30C but this year we could on a number of days, perhaps somewhere every day next week but who knows

[Devon-Nelly]

My guess would be around 36c or possibly even 37c, somewhere in south east/south midlands area, in Late July/Early August.

Last summer was the worst for heat i've ever experianced in this country, the highest temperature we had last summer was 24.5c and we only reached 24c twice.

Hopefully we should get our first 80F+ figure over the coming days. :lol:

[reef]

Later on in summer the chance of extreme heat does get higher though. As long as the jet stays up where it should be in Iceland we have a chance of a good summer, last 2 years we only just reached 30C but this year we could on a number of days, perhaps somewhere every day next week but who knows

The thing is, the mean position of the jet stream in summer should be just to the North of Scotland. A summer with it resident over Iceland would be just as unusual as it being positioned over the UK. Contrary to belief, temperatures of 30+C are not really all that common in the majority of the UK. Here we've surpassed it just 9 times in the last 27 years and only once was over 31C. The mean max even in London is around 22-23C in July and August, so 30C is exceptionally above average.

You're correct when you say the likelihood of extreme heat grows as you move later into the summer. Statistically the peak temperatures in this country are in the first week of August due to thermal lag.

Its certainly going to be a hot week though, probably the warmest summer spell since 2006. I wouldnt rule out an isolated 34C if it stays clear. I dont think the pattern looks anything like July 2006 however. The Atlantic breaking through looks likely towards the end of next week.

P.S 4000th post :ph34r:

[Jack Wales]

The values reached in 2003 and 2006 were truly exceptional and I believe it will be some duration before we see those again. I think this year will top out at 33C, either this week or in early August.

Edited June 29, 2009 by Jack Wales

[Nick F]

31C on the cards for tomorrow in the SE.

[TEITS]

31C on the cards for tomorrow in the SE.

At the rate the temps are climbing in London I wouldn't be surprised to see Heathrow airport record 31C today.

Possibly record 32C this week although I think im right in saying the record max for June is 35C.

Currently 25C in London at 9.30am which is impressive.