Storm/Convective Discussion

[maidstone weather]

Why has Meto still got an advisory out for Wales and the SW? There is no heavy and thundery rain anymore, it's done and dusted. I'm not having a go, just wondering why it's still out.

because advisories are for the whole day in question, there is no set start time and finish, it's basically 00:00-23:59 :wub:

[MetWX]

Still optimistic about the MCS developing further and extending across the Channel by about 11 pm, peaking around 0200.

Satellite imagery loop shows that small low on the front actually swerving northeast past two hours. There already is a developing MCS over northeast France, one station north of Paris reported 70 mms of rain in one hour.

Meanwhile, I remain less than optimistic about chances for development along the main frontal band edging east, but it could at least get slightly more active after midnight in phase with the MCS.

The better dynamics long-term are later Friday when the stuff west of Ireland swings through, this could give some better thunderstorm potential and perhaps the first front will redevelop in phase with that over eastern England.

Anyway, it's a longish wait but I'm saying lightning show 11 pm to 4 am southeast England. Fingers crossed.

So have you redacted your prediction for Hampshire?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just logged-in again after a couple of weeks away. Am watching the "Raintoday" radar, and I am interested in the storms over NE France - can any learned member here explain to me (in layman's terms) what they are associated with (front?) and why Met O seems only to be talking about the rather feeble-looking cold front out West. Also, predictions of when I (in S. Norfolk) might get something, please?

[Harry]

indeed, fingers, toes and everything else crossed here thanks Roger as always

21.9C but very humid.

I know - everything crossed!! So hoping it makes it here :wub:

[StormChaser]

Hmm, I just seen 3 sets of birds not sure what kind, flying in a perfect v formation moving away from here, i wonder if thats a sign of bad weather on its way. I sware the humidity has just gone up a tad here now. Really feeling sticky again.

Edited July 2, 2009 by StormChaser

[Wilxy]

Well i can't believe how unpredictable things have gone today we had a v unexpected storms which was fairly good who knows what gunna happen.

[Guest]

Carl, with all due respect, the storms over the last few days have been forecasted pretty accurately, with western areas being correctly under the severe warnings. Storms have been very isolated, but location wise forecasts have been good.

People occasionally want to bash the big forecasting sites just because they didn't get a storm. It is never guaranteed here, ever.

This has been a disappointing breakdown. The models last weekend indicated potential for severe weather, and the MetO accordingly warned us of that in their 6-15 dayer at the time. Since then the models have generally downgraded potential, and the forecasts have paid attention to that fact.

We can't control the weather Carl, the cold front has stalled to the west. Why? I don't know. It has, and that's that. Bashing the Met Office in every post solves nothing.

[Chloe]

Any chance of West London been in the firing line, I dont listen to the weather anymore they seem to always get it wrong for example the strom that hit w, london in August 2004 that was not predicited at all and what a storm that was lightning strikes per min, really humid here but not sure if the wind direction is right for the stroms coming up from france have to wait and see.

[Nick F]

Getting too long this thread, please continue over here: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=55722

This thread will close shortly ...

[Mondy]

Probably come up against extremely hot temps and thought "wtf?" so decided to stall. :wub:

^^ the front as posted earlier. Simple, but true perhaps