Storm/Convective Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Please carry on here please..............

A clue is in the Title, please try to talk about the ongoing convective threat for Thursday

I am sure Nick will paste in the Netweather Forecast for tomorrow

Paul S

[Kain]

Ok i'll ask Nick again.

If that MCS drifts over the UK overnight, will it hamper todays development like it did on friday?

kain

[Lewis]

the sferics have more or less died S of devon/cornwall, but i expect it to pick up again as it hits the B channel area. What does Paul and Nick F think?

Edited July 1, 2009 by Lewis

[Nick F]

Ok i'll ask Nick again.

If that MCS drifts over the UK overnight, will it hamper todays development like it did on friday?

kain

It may hamper surface based storms developing across the west due to cloud cover inhibiting insolation - but elevated storms are still possible as the warm moist plume advecting N across the west today destabilises aloft with approach of cold front and upper forcing.

[StormChaseUK]

Sferics in Irish sea now, west wales should be able to see a few flashes.

[Kain]

It may hamper surface based storms developing across the west due to cloud cover inhibiting insolation - but elevated storms are still possible as the warm moist plume advecting N across the west today destabilises aloft with approach of cold front and upper forcing.

Thanks for clearing that up mate

[andy_leics22]

Alright, i'm afraid this is not on-topic with convection but sorry for being a tart in the last thread. I just thought that when I saw 33.9c recorded here that it might have been fairly big news if it was the hottest temperature of the year so far.. Obviously it wasn't an official reading so doesen't count and no ones really bothered but I thought some peeps might have been so i'm sorry for being off-topic and bringing it up.

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Nick's Forecast for tomorrow above

[Lightning Ed]

should be interesting...

[Cheese Rice]

According to beeb, Friday is the best chance for Yorkshire area to get showers, doubt they will be thudery though

[A.J]

just wondering about tomorrow.....Will it snow in Lincoln??..................lol

I'm not too impressed by the 18z NMM run for tomorrow.....suggesting diddly squat for the midlands during the day, with overnight rain tomorrow night...As Nick has suggested, there's a risk of convective precip over the West Midlands in the late afternoon, but its just a risk....I'll await the next run (after a few hours kip) and then I guess it'll be radar watching

[andy_leics22]

just wondering about tomorrow.....Will it snow in Lincoln??..................lol

I'm not too impressed by the 18z NMM run for tomorrow.....suggesting diddly squat for the midlands during the day, with overnight rain tomorrow night...As Nick has suggested, there's a risk of convective precip over the West Midlands in the late afternoon, but its just a risk....I'll await the next run (after a few hours kip) and then I guess it'll be radar watching

Friday is our best chance isn't it? Even then though it looks a pretty weak affair lol.

[Lightning Ed]

In the UK its never clear cut, the best storms i have seen were totally unexpected.

[Marcus_surfer]

Nothing at all here in South Wales

[Wilxy]

Don't think anything is going to happen here tomorow just have that feeling.

[viking_smb]

Don't think anything is going to happen here tomorow just have that feeling.

all the big rain is moving up through cornwall straight up the irish sea

according to meto 02:00 radar there have been showers forming in avon maybe anaprop or something

[Ross B]

Stormy in the Irish sea! I wonder if it will make it this far north for the morning... we shall see

[weatherobsuk]

Explosive convection in the Bay of Biscay the past hour (0100-0200am) and moving Northwards according to the IR radar. Not too sure wether it'll hold itself together by the time it interracts with the incoming frontal system but only some 3 hours until Sunrise if it makes it to the Channel and I suspect heating will be taking place fairly rapidly once the Sun is up.

[The Eagle]

thunderstorm in Dublin right now - VERY active - 8 strikes per minute so far.

[viking_smb]

thunderstorm in Dublin right now - VERY active - 8 strikes per minute so far.

it hasn't moved east as GFS promised, it's moved north west through irish sea to ireland,

not sure what is going but all the forecasters are in bed and so should I as well now

cheers

Edited July 2, 2009 by viking_smb

[viking_smb]

What's with all that mess South of Leicester, a clear anaprop.

not sure mate, I'm going by the 03:00 METO Prep Radar but look at ireland, and irish sea having a huge battering ATM lol

[The Eagle]

Im currently looking at the edge of these storms. It looks like a supercell from here on the east coast - it is amazing to look at.

Oh sh*te it is near me now - vicious strike just now - logging off..........jesus this is bad...

Edited July 2, 2009 by The Eagle

[ballybabe12]

Could we dare to hope here in Belfast? Think the storms are moving North Westerly but not sure, can anyone clarify for me? Cheers BB

[dogs32]

Could we dare to hope here in Belfast? Think the storms are moving North Westerly but not sure, can anyone clarify for me? Cheers BB

yes they are..........massive deluge on radar for N.IRELAND..ON its way

[The Eagle]

Lightning has died off now but very heavy rain remains. NI may get a bit of lightning on the front edge but it is in retreat so I suspect rain will be the bigger problem as it is here now.