Thursday / Friday Storm Discussion

[WS Evolution]

Persistent heavy rain across most of North Yorkshire at the moment. Warnings justified here, I think. Lots of standing water, if this carries on there could be flooding problems. It really depends if the low stalls for a while or not.

[azores92]

major downplay on the beeb graphics this morning, now it has been reduced to little more than the odd heavy shower for our region. so much for all the hype, i agree with blizzards.

[SteveB]

Know how you feel Steve.....

Fair play to Nick who predicted long ago that the MCS'S would hit the East..

The Met well...maybe they should employ Nick!!

Like you I have lost count on so many false warning's...

Yesterday's rain was heavy at a few point's but nothing drastic.

I am still waiting for my 2-4inch rain

Fair shout to Nick & Brickfielder, they are much closer to the mark than the meto are.

I really don't get whats going on with meto warnings. They must have a new default of when there is any rain about stick up warnings.

The funny thing is, this year has been fairly dry around these parts, with maxes under 60mm for every Month since I started recording back in March.

2-4inches have never been on the cards

Edited July 17, 2009 by SteveB

[I can't believe it's not better]

Rain looks like easing in Wales now - 7 flood warnings issued.

It looks grim up north!

[Coast]

Another interesting day in prospect around Europe with the East of the UK looking to get the bulk of any action today.

ESTOFEX:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 17 Jul 2009 06:00 to Sat 18 Jul 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 16 Jul 2009 22:01

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A strong upper trough gradually gains a negative tilt during the forecast, with further amplification to the SE. Weak pressure gradients over E-Europe remain in place with hot and moist conditions, so diurnal driven thunderstorms are possible, increasing in intensity and coverage over W-Russia due to a broad surface depression. Cold and stable remains the atmosphere over Norway and Sweden with no deep convection expected.

The main feature at the surface is an extensive cold front over the level-1/-2 regions of W/-CNTRL Europe, which moves towards the south/southeast during the forecast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is forecast during the following 24h along that front.

DISCUSSION

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast over parts of Germany, Switzerland, SE-France and N-Italy with large hail, tornadoes and severe wind gusts

This set-up, although quite supportive for widespread severe thunderstorms, still features major uncertainties. The main uncertainties arise over SE-Germany and W-Germany, described in the respective paragraphs.

... UK and Scotland ...

Main focus for a few thunderstorms is the back-bent occlusion, which crosses UK during the afternoon/evening hours. However, despite a few thunderstorms, not much severe is forecast. Also, no level-1 for excessive rain was issued over S-Scotland/N-UK as the precipitation of the occlusion ought to be more of stratiform nature.

Surprisingly UKASF have no forecast for today yet

TORRO:

TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2009/005

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been updated at 17:00 GMT on Thursday 16th July 2009

Valid from/until: 17:00 - 03:00GMT on Thursday/Friday 16th/17th July 2009 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Channel Islands Cent S & SE England E Midlands E Anglia Lincs

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes, possibly strong; hail to 30-40mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; heavy rain.

SYNOPSIS

Sharpening upper trough will move NE across the area this evening and overnight, with an area of low pressure at the surface developing. Ageostrophic flow associated with the developing low will keep surface flow backed to the east or south-east, beneath a 30-35 knot 850 hPa flow, and 50-60 knot 500 hPa flow. Thunderstorms have already developed in the moisture plume, associated with strong forcing from the upper trough. These are expected to move/develop north-eastwards this evening and overnight, although may be slightly elevated. Cloud layer shear is sufficient for elevated mesocyclones, bringing the risk of large hail/strong winds.

The tornado risk is more questionable as storms may remain rooted above the boundary layer. However, if any storm does root into the boundary layer, strong 0-1km shear would bring the risk of low-level mesocyclones/tornadoes, and the magnitude of the shear suggests that a strong tornado is possible (T4+).

Forecaster: RPK.

I've got to go (virtually) for Norfolk and Lincolnshire again today, although anywhere up the Eastern side could see action!

Edited July 17, 2009 by Coast

[dogs32]

yes been very dry here also.

lost two Conifier's this year for the first time.

Yesterday was probally the most rain we have had here for some time..

And that wasn't that much...

So far this as been the worse year since 1972 when I started to watch Storm's..

Only saw 2 flashes and 7 bangs which to me doesnt warrant a Proper storm..

Yes cant see a great deal happening today

apart for the East

Anyway good news it will soon be xmas

Edited July 17, 2009 by dogs32

[Coast]

Whoops! Sorry, double posted, must have been 'cos I was up late watching the storm from the Seafront

Edited July 17, 2009 by Coast

[azores92]

actually, the met office did say between 15 and 25mm, and a local report suggests we had around 13mm worth of rainfall, and the event isnt entirely finished yet.

[Typhoon John]

Just posted this in general weather chat:

Very heavy rain during the night and again this morning. Very dark outside.

I drove through 4 floods on the way to work and it's still chucking it down. I didn't think it would be so bad, the rain we've had this week must have really saturated the ground as it's pouring off the fields.

[Geordiesnow]

Rain moderate/heavy and its rather dull outside, not a great morning to go out in as i have to soon. Must say the radar does not surprise me, i did suspect the graphics has overestimated the rainfall and the current graphics this morning is a more realistic outcome. There are some heavy downpours around but its not like the whole region has got them like the graphics suggested yesteday. However flooding is still an possibility as the rain is going to be persistant all day so a grotty day in truth.

[SteveB]

Yes Dogs, I think we have been very unlucky this year storm wise.

And it does'nt help when you keep getting false hopes from the meto.

As you said soon be Xmas.

[Harry]

Radio this morning was REALLY ramping up the idea of thunder in the London area today, and a lot of rain - not merely mentioned in the forecast, but during their chat too.

Have to say, some of the charts suggest we could be on the fringe of some possible convective activity, but anything which MIGHT form should be to the North of London.

That said, when I left for work this morning at 7.30 there were some Cu developing, and also a lot of Altocumulus and some Acas around too...worth keeping an eye open I suppose.

Just found this radar shot of an hour ago - running it radar you can see it pretty much develops a couple of hours ago - potential is out there then obviously (postcode is my work address)

Edited July 17, 2009 by Harry

[Cloud 10]

Nasty morning here with a strong breeze and heavy rain.

Looks like some early storms are starting to fire up just north of norwich.

[Harry]

Nasty morning here with a strong breeze and heavy rain.

Looks like some early storms are starting to fire up just north of norwich.

Appears to be either a convergence zone or trough running towards London from the South at the moment - you cannot get a more defined line than that lol

Edited July 17, 2009 by Harry

[SteveB]

Funny enough having a torrential down poor at the moment, heaviest rain I have seen for a while.

[Snow Cat]

constant flashing every few secs from the line of storms to my east! why won't it budge this way!

Still lightning strikes every 15-20 seconds. Lots to the south in the Channel. Rain begining to become heavier.

It was right over me. Fantastic storm and rain last night.

I've uploaded the photos in the photo area:

MORE LIGHTNING PHOTOS CLICK HERE

[ANYWEATHER]

yes been very dry here also.

lost two Conifier's this year for the first time.

Yesterday was probally the most rain we have had here for some time..

And that wasn't that much...

So far this as been the worse year since 1972 when I started to watch Storm's..

Only saw 2 flashes and 7 bangs which to me doesnt warrant a Proper storm..

Yes cant see a great deal happening today

apart for the East

Anyway good news it will soon be xmas :lol:

Yep ,youre right! Very poor year here in Evesham this year , no thunderstorms at all over my patch, but we can only live in hope! :lol: Today perhaps something will happen, but as always the storms will be miles away from here CHIN UP! :lol:

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Ive got a strong feeling that it will be dry and cloudy all day, but time will tell

This may be a double post, as my broadband dropped as I posted,

Just had a heavy burst of rain, with thunder to the west, saw one CC lightning about 4 miles west. Looks like a real cracker south of Norwich, let's see if the 850's really drag it this way

[dogs32]

there is a line of heavy showers forming from South Glos to South London

[sunny scunny]

Clouds are breaking and the sun is making a brief appearance,so hopefully things will kick off here soon

[Paul Sherman]

Some beautiful Convection around here this morning and now have Tropical Rain and very low cloud bases, Convergence Zone over-running this area now

Paul S

[Methuselah]

For the first time in my 21 years here, Inverness has just had four successive thunder days.

Edited July 17, 2009 by Pete Tattum

[peterf]

well the water is about an hour away from breaching my defences.

wind picking up also.

[dogs32]

just might be luck today

no truthfully there are some meaty looking shower's from Bristol area to London..

Pivoting and growing on radar

Met have updated at 9.04

Edited July 17, 2009 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

Have zoomed in the Images of a few Lightning shots from Last Night

Paul S