Convective/storm Discussion 5Th August >>

[TonyH]

I take it that torrential blob over and east of Coventry is anaprop, as its been going nowhere all evening, otherwise 70mm in parts of that area! Mum and Dad said its been wet today there, but Church Lawford had only 10mm to 1900, so the radar must be at fault.

[Harry]

will nocturnal cooling come into effect? if so I'd expect something soon, or the game's up!

I was thinking that MW, hence my remaining hope! The fact the air is still very warm and humid, could mean the cooling of the upper atmosphere could encourage convection, therefore storms.

I still, as Weather09 compliments , am holding some optimism...initially with this next pulse just moving in now, but also the further pulse over N France now. The energy is there, hence the sweat and wide open windows etc...or as I explained to my Mum earlier, we have the keg, we have the gun powder, we just really need now the match and spark!!

[StormChaser]

I think its over for me now:( Still sticky tho. Cant complain I had thunderstorm.

[Lynxus]

Its a lovely hot 17c here Ner ner. Have fun sleeping you easterners!

[Tn9]

...or as I explained to my Mum earlier, we have the keg, we have the gun powder, we just really need now the match and spark!!

But the head has snapped off the match and we have dropped it in a puddle in the dark,and the gunpowder is now getting wet,time is running out,or is it ,

[Upgrade]

still bucketing it down here - and has been for hours - when are the storms from the channel going to hit london ?

[snow raven]

well, its raining out. How exciting!

[maidstone weather]

can't really see where the 15-20mm in Kent is going to come from, methinks the MetO will have another bucket load of egg on their faces from people in Kent tomorrow morning - everything seems to be moving straight north!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Back in North Norfolk, Some rain on the M25, now at home, swelteringly humid, but no rain, no nothing

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Back in North Norfolk, Some rain on the M25, now at home, swelteringly humid, but no rain, no nothing

You should have been here earlier - awfully sticky.

[Harry]

You should have been here earlier - awfully sticky.

Still raining here, sounds bit heavier too - rain coming in from the south seems to be getting heavier too!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Good night all.

[Cableguy]

I'm a tad confused what people were actually expecting today/tonight, it never looked like there was going to be anything severe unless im missing something

So hardly a let down.

[Neilsouth]

I'm a tad confused what people were actually expecting today/tonight, it never looked like there was going to be anything severe unless im missing something

So hardly a let down.

Who said anything about being severe?

[StormChaser]

I'm a tad confused what people were actually expecting today/tonight, it never looked like there was going to be anything severe unless im missing something

So hardly a let down.

We did get a thunderstorm I do have footage but ive yet to upload it.

[maidstone weather]

I'm a tad confused what people were actually expecting today/tonight, it never looked like there was going to be anything severe unless im missing something

So hardly a let down.

I think it was more of it's been on the charts for weeks now (well the GFS anyway) it's exactly a year to the day since the marginally severe multicells that hit the SE, it's also a Thursday night which is usually the night storms hit the SE and also the fact it's the end of this rather short hot spell/heatwave, so it's a shame such heat just fizzles out rather than leaves with an explosion of storms?

[Neilsouth]

I bet this front has two parts , one going across britain the other across france will explode into a massive mcs... Wonder why it failed so badly lol

[maidstone weather]

But all the indredients for storm potential were either not there or were rather poor. A very warm and moist humid air mass along with a slow moving CF isn't in itself going to provide alot of storms. Yesterday I joked about being vague with my prediction, which was that there would be a few storms embedded within the main area of rain and that heavy precip would be the main threat and indeed there was.

The reason for the heavy rainfall was, I think, due to the fact that there was alot of moisture in the air in the warm sector and this was forced upward by the CF, and it even produced quite a few sferics but once the CF undercut most the warm air mass, it just dissolved into nothing but moderate-heavy precip.

yeah

and, to my knowledge, the stark but obvious temperature gradient - 31C in parts of Kent, compared to just 16/17C in some places the other side of the cold front!

[Terminal Moraine]

I take it that torrential blob over and east of Coventry is anaprop, as its been going nowhere all evening, otherwise 70mm in parts of that area! Mum and Dad said its been wet today there, but Church Lawford had only 10mm to 1900, so the radar must be at fault.

I suspect it is anaprop. I'm always suspicious when (a) there are random pixels of intense rain without any structure and ( when the intense random pixels don't move.

[CardiffStorm]

My apologies, ive been very busy all day and ive gotta go back out in a couple of mins so havent got time to read back through all the posts but looking at a couple im guessing that it hasnt come to much.

[NorthantsSnow]

Well we had one decent (ish) storm today so shouldn't complain. Still raining away outside.

Looking at the radar made me wish we were in winter and it was all snow. Gosh, pining for the stuff already.

[TonyH]

I suspect it is anaprop. I'm always suspicious when (a) there are random pixels of intense rain without any structure and ( B) when the intense random pixels don't move.

Yes TM, thats what gave it away for me those random static pixels! Shame I thought Dads rain gauge was getting filled up when I first checked this evening!

Edited August 6, 2009 by Tonyh

[Geordiesnow]

I think whenever the Met forecasts 'thundery rain', some are expecting a large mass of rain with loads of thunderstorms. From my knowledge, thundery rain is a mass of rain with the odd storm perhaps embedded into the rain.

I expected a few more reds on the radar but apart from that, there are no surprises regarding the thundery activity sadly.

[CardiffStorm]

I think whenever the Met forecasts 'thundery rain', some are expecting a large mass of rain with loads of thunderstorms. From my knowledge, thundery rain is a mass of rain with the odd storm perhaps embedded into the rain.

yeah, ive always thought that when they say thundery showers they mean short, and very heavy downpours rather than T&L storms

[NorthantsSnow]

I think whenever the Met forecasts 'thundery rain', some are expecting a large mass of rain with loads of thunderstorms. From my knowledge, thundery rain is a mass of rain with the odd storm perhaps embedded into the rain.

Well, the local forecast for my area on the Met Office website showed Thunder Storms this evening rather than thundery showers which did not materialise. Indeed, the rain was not thundery either. So I think it's fair to conclude that accuracy was poor. But the GFS handled it badly too with no rain at all forecast until about 1900 according to 06z data and yet the the rain was pretty constant after the initial thunderstorm around 2pm. Overall both models handled this setup badly.