Convective/storm Discussion 5Th August >>

[CardiffStorm]

'Thundery rain' is a mass of rain of which the intensity is similar to that in a thunderstorm, so torrential. If there's a chance of embedded storms then they'll most likely say there's a risk of some thunderstorms. B)

yes, like I said

[Geordiesnow]

Whatever 'thundery rain' means, i certainly would not class it as that at the moment. Just looks like to me a band of rain from a weather front which has been around Southern areas for a few days now.

I think some are disapointed as they thought with all the heat and humidity, it will go off in a bang but not to be it would seem.

[Tom D]

A very very wet evening here, we've had some very heavy and prolongued periods of rain over the last 6/7 hours, with the NWX radar saying my local area has had more than 30mm in that time.

[CardiffStorm]

Oh, ok. Thought you were talking about the term 'thundery showers' as opposed to 'thundery rain'. B)

sorry, thats me agreeing with you. I could have worded it a bit differently, sorry.

[Costa Del Fal]

Its raining here-At last! B)

[StormChaser]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUjqmkXMIqM

Todays short lived storm;)

[sunny scunny]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUjqmkXMIqM

Todays short lived storm;)

Good vid mate B)

Constant drizzle here for hours lol

[Phil UK]

I heard distant thunder to my East for at least an hour earlier. I'm guessing at IC lightning. yet had it been about 30 miles further West... It would have been almost above me. Could even see the edge of the Cb anvils almost above.

Talk about torment!

Jane Louise, I'm a coming back home to the NSC. (Unless anything spectacular happens which going by current radar... Pfft!! )

Phil. Some day, I will return. Maybe not this thread, but another set up by Shermy or whoever).

[StormChaser]

I heard distant thunder to my East for at least an hour earlier. I'm guessing at IC lightning. yet had it been about 30 miles further West... It would have been almost above me. Could even see the edge of the Cb anvils almost above.

Talk about torment!

Jane Louise, I'm a coming back home to the NSC. (Unless anything spectacular happens which going by current radar... Pfft!! )

Phil. Some day, I will return. Maybe not this thread, but another set up by Shermy or whoever).

Who is this Jane Louise you guys keep talking about and is she blond big breasted and single? lol

Good vid mate B)

Constant drizzle here for hours lol

Thankyou;) I do try where ever there is a storm in my area im the one likely to catch it. That being im not tied down with work:(

[Phil UK]

I'll erm... Let her answer that. (I don't know myself to be honest!) B) But I think a woman non stormed scorned...

She is the long suffering member of this forum who has not yet seen a storm this year. I've seen six and don't live all that far away from her.

So she set up the "No Storms Club" thread going back to 1885 was it?

(Sorry! Just being facetious.)

I'm heading back there. Not even raining now. AARRGHHHHH!!

Phil.

[West Sussex Kate]

it's also a Thursday night which is usually the night storms hit the SE

LOL! thats so funny but sooo true...in which case see u next week then! night everyone LOL!

[biddie]

blimey its been very very heavy rain here since 5pm and just got torential again !

[liambailey09]

blimey its been very very heavy rain here since 5pm and just got torential again !

tell me about it, did you hear the rumbles of thunder when the rain started like you said at about 5 ish?

[Lewis]

Well i started this thread, and it's very dissapointing indeed, and i apologise for that, i'm now adding a ending speach to the thread;

It rained, the end B).

Once again sorry for a poor thread.

[biddie]

tell me about it, did you hear the rumbles of thunder when the rain started like you said at about 5 ish?

no was in the gym but a friend told me ! went in was compeletly dry and warm came out was torrential rain. I guessed as much as lights flickered in gym

[Katherine]

Torrential rain forecast for about now has not materialised. However, did get a drenching in heavy rain while walking home from town circa 17:00. Even with a decent waterproof, jeans got soaked, as did walking boots and thick socks. Some thunder, 3 flashes of lightning but mystified as to the paucity of rain now, given that Paul Hudson put us right in the Yellow Splodge Zone on tonight's Look North forecast.....

[sunny scunny]

So far the rain hasn't amounted to very much,although in the last few minutes it's started to become a little heavier.

[we1330]

It's still persisting it down here B)

[Coast]

So whilst not a complete non-event yesterday, all it really amounted to was torrential rain in places whilst others in the forecasted areas got very little of anything.

I know Old Ma Nature is a fickle lady, but is it worth opening another thread on why thunderstorms didn't really materialise yesterday so we can take some learning from this one? As I said last night, I'm not surprised Sussex and Kent didn't get anything, but after yesterdays warm and humid conditions, forecasts from most of the major sites and encouraging soundings on the 12Z I would have thought someone in the area I highlighted on a map in the afternoon would have got a reasonable thunder and lightning show. Looking back at the posts from yesterday I notice that there were one or two isolated events that lasted a short time, but nothing more sustained or widespread.

Perhaps one of the forecast team, or a more knowledgeable member can show us what happened to prevent a better storm outbreak - was it a lack of CAPE, shear, a cap or some other meteorological phenomena that finally put pay to thunderstorms or was it too much expectation from the charts, models and other websites that was misread or over exaggerated?

I feel it would be important (at least to me) to have a debrief on yesterday so I/we can learn more about the signs and science for the next storm.

[Jane Louise]

The storms on the radar were so close to me yesterday! but as per usual they decided to skip by me to the East. Still a bit of August left yet and then there is always September for storms for Glos. (My storm matey dogs, promised me August and September is the time for us storm starved in Glos lol )

[A.J]

So whilst not a complete non-event yesterday, all it really amounted to was torrential rain in places whilst others in the forecasted areas got very little of anything.

I know Old Ma Nature is a fickle lady, but is it worth opening another thread on why thunderstorms didn't really materialise yesterday so we can take some learning from this one? As I said last night, I'm not surprised Sussex and Kent didn't get anything, but after yesterdays warm and humid conditions, forecasts from most of the major sites and encouraging soundings on the 12Z I would have thought someone in the area I highlighted on a map in the afternoon would have got a reasonable thunder and lightning show. Looking back at the posts from yesterday I notice that there were one or two isolated events that lasted a short time, but nothing more sustained or widespread.

Perhaps one of the forecast team, or a more knowledgeable member can show us what happened to prevent a better storm outbreak - was it a lack of CAPE, shear, a cap or some other meteorological phenomena that finally put pay to thunderstorms or was it too much expectation from the charts, models and other websites that was misread or over exaggerated?

I feel it would be important (at least to me) to have a debrief on yesterday so I/we can learn more about the signs and science for the next storm.

A good idea coast, I'd be interested to find out as well...I was in Milton Keynes yesterday, and had a sharp thunderstorm around lunchtime (temps prior were around 26C), but then it seemed to me that the atmosphere stabilized (temps dropped markedly to 17C by 3pm), and the rest of the day was more of a soaking, frontal rainfall than anything else. Yesterday's charts were showing limited lift and energy available over CS England generally speaking, My guess is that the initial temperature differential triggered storms along the eastern flank of the front, with more stable, cool air then getting drawn in 'dampening' down things

[maidstone weather]

So whilst not a complete non-event yesterday, all it really amounted to was torrential rain in places whilst others in the forecasted areas got very little of anything.

I know Old Ma Nature is a fickle lady, but is it worth opening another thread on why thunderstorms didn't really materialise yesterday so we can take some learning from this one? As I said last night, I'm not surprised Sussex and Kent didn't get anything, but after yesterdays warm and humid conditions, forecasts from most of the major sites and encouraging soundings on the 12Z I would have thought someone in the area I highlighted on a map in the afternoon would have got a reasonable thunder and lightning show. Looking back at the posts from yesterday I notice that there were one or two isolated events that lasted a short time, but nothing more sustained or widespread.

Perhaps one of the forecast team, or a more knowledgeable member can show us what happened to prevent a better storm outbreak - was it a lack of CAPE, shear, a cap or some other meteorological phenomena that finally put pay to thunderstorms or was it too much expectation from the charts, models and other websites that was misread or over exaggerated?

I feel it would be important (at least to me) to have a debrief on yesterday so I/we can learn more about the signs and science for the next storm.

I'd be interested too. It was so hot and sticky yesterday, I drove to west Kent (Paddock Wood) and it was about 24C at 19:00, went to Tunbridge Wells to do a bit of 'late night shopping', came back out and it had dropped to 18C by 20:30, and it did indeed feel so much fresher. The clouds on the way to Paddock Wood were very stormy and plumey in appearance I was surprised nothing happened. I guess this is another one of those hot spells that just fizzles out to nothing

[Harry]

I'd be interested too. It was so hot and sticky yesterday, I drove to west Kent (Paddock Wood) and it was about 24C at 19:00, went to Tunbridge Wells to do a bit of 'late night shopping', came back out and it had dropped to 18C by 20:30, and it did indeed feel so much fresher. The clouds on the way to Paddock Wood were very stormy and plumey in appearance I was surprised nothing happened. I guess this is another one of those hot spells that just fizzles out to nothing

Same here - I need to learn why despite the appearance of the sky, the high humidity, high temperatures, presence of a short-wave trough, stark temperature contrasts either side of the front, all did not come together to form storm conditions.

I have a sneaky suspicion the area of High Pressure to the SW/W and also out to the E played quite a part, but otherwise I don't have a clue

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I know Old Ma Nature is a fickle lady

She is indeed!

Looked like a storm might be developing as I drove back from Sainsburys early yesterday evening. Lower clouds were moving quite fast from the NW and there were lumpy higher clouds moving from both the east and the south. Looked like it might go

But nada - just a few showers through the evening. But it was soooo humid!

[Harry]

I gave my view yesterday on why I think alot more storm didn't materialise and tbh, I'm really not sure what people were expecting. Unless I'm missing something, there was no or little CAPE at both levels of the atmosphere and very poor lapse rates. These two factors determine cloud heights and also electric activity. Yesterday there were a good few sferics around aswell as alot of torrential rainfall which was probably due to the CF forcing the warm and humid airmass ahead of it, and so with alot of moisture in the atmosphere, produced the heavy rainfall. Once the CF has undercut most of that humid airmass, there was no energy left from the lower level and sferics quickly died out and all that was left was moderate-heavy rainfall.

I'm no expert on storm development but I remember taking a look at necessary ingredients for good storm development before yesterday, and they just were not there and so was quite surprised some people were expecting something like Aug 6th last year.

I don't know, there's alot I need to learn about storm forecasting, structure and development but yesterday I think was an easy one to forecast. My prediction: 'Embedded storms within the main mass of rain and the main threat would be heavy precip' and of course this is what happened. Even the MetO forecast predicted just thundery rain but I thought I'd go one further and add the embedded storm since there were hugely contrasting air masses so that when they interacted with each other, something electrical was bound to come out of it.

Anyway, that's my take on it, would be nice for someone more knowledgeable or an expert to explain.

I hear your points Weather09, but UKASF, Estofex, and other bodies were seeing a risk of thunder activity, not just thundery style rainfall. There was enough discussion to suggest the possibilites. AND, you do not always need high CAPE to get thunderstorm development (unless I am way off there).

What I cannot get my head round, is why lapse rates were poor, why CAPE wasn't there. When in Hampshire the temperatures are struggling to get into the 20s, yet 50 miles further East they are 10C higher, almost in the 30s, with sky high humidity, why that wouldn't lead to convective potential.