Convective/Storm Discussion

[Lewis]

Had some fairly hefty rainfall over the past few hours, my labrador pup enjoyed it going to shop but i certainly did not!

Certainly the potential is there for some thunderstorms to kick off, whether the conditions materialize is another question. The ex tropical storm thats now interacted with the cold front has some nippy energy in there, i think personally tonight will see parts of the south get some very very heavy rainfall, i think it will be a case of thundery rain in the main band, with some potent cells forming as a cluster east of the main band.

Looks promising.

Lewis

Edited October 6, 2009 by Lewis

[Harry]

Those dew points are as good, if not better than some of the countries in S/C Europe.

Forecasts this morning were for the sun to get out this afternoon - which, dependant on the Herstmonceux sounding (for the SE at least) will be critical for any thundery developments which MAY occur

I myself am not anticipating anything - though when Grace arrives (which assuming that is her still out in the Bay of Biscay - there are so many areas of precip and dense cloud its hard to pick anything out) things could turn very interesting.

Stepping outside 5 mins ago, the air has that feel which you get on humid plume events - that dense, sticky feeling! If the sun does get out temps could respond significantly IMO, even though it is October!

[BrickFielder]

Interesting rotating core to the south west of Ireland.

[Coast]

Interesting rotating core to the south west of Ireland.

Just posted this over on the TS Grace thread, one of the spaghetti models takes her track right over my house!!!!

:unsure: :ph34r:

[Neilsouth]

Interesting rotating core to the south west of Ireland.

http://www.sat24.com/homepage.aspx?html=zoom&xas=140&yas=200

:unsure: :ph34r:

[dogs32]

http://www.sat24.com/homepage.aspx?html=zoom&xas=140&yas=200

:unsure: :ph34r:

WOW..Never seen that before towards the Uk

[The PIT]

Yeh former Grace may add something to a large none event. It's maintaining it's circulation fairly well isn't. Anyway sun is out now and a nice Indian summers day is developing.

[Nick F]

Those dew points are as good, if not better than some of the countries in S/C Europe.

Forecasts this morning were for the sun to get out this afternoon - which, dependant on the Herstmonceux sounding (for the SE at least) will be critical for any thundery developments which MAY occur

I myself am not anticipating anything - though when Grace arrives (which assuming that is her still out in the Bay of Biscay - there are so many areas of precip and dense cloud its hard to pick anything out) things could turn very interesting.

Stepping outside 5 mins ago, the air has that feel which you get on humid plume events - that dense, sticky feeling! If the sun does get out temps could respond significantly IMO, even though it is October!

There looks unlikely to be much if any sunshine over England south of cold front, the satellite images show persistent low cloud likely to linger in the rather moist SWerly flow all day.

I am very sceptical about there being much in the way of thundery activity away from the cold front, and even near the cold front where there maybe sufficient lift from undercutting, instability looks meagre - but I would expect to see some isolated sferics across Sern Ireland and N + W Wales perhaps this afternoon embedded in the dynamic rainfall. Ex Grace's moisture and Tropical warmth certainly providing hefty radar returns across Sern/SW Ireland atm as it gets lifted by the CF, but no sferics associated with it yet.

[Harry]

If I was living in Southern Rep Ireland, I'd certainly be concerned - that rain is VERY VERY heavy and persistent...with little sign of letting up within the next hour or two (maybe more)

Edited October 6, 2009 by Harry

[Costa Del Fal]

It will be interesting to see if we have some of that very heavy rain later.

[Coast]

Managed to find 15 minutes gap in the rain for a bike ride and was amazed at how humid it is out there! Check of the local weather station in Burgess Hill shows 90% humidity and 16.3 DgC dewpoint. If only some other factors could come into play :unsure: Still, it is October!

Just waiting for the 12z Herckymoo sounding now, but along with Nicks comments above, today may not be the day....

[Harry]

Managed to find 15 minutes gap in the rain for a bike ride and was amazed at how humid it is out there! Check of the local weather station in Burgess Hill shows 90% humidity and 16.3 DgC dewpoint. If only some other factors could come into play :lol: Still, it is October!

Just waiting for the 12z Herckymoo sounding now, but along with Nicks comments above, today may not be the day....

Indeed - as I said before, however much I want it to I have no buzzing feeling that anything will happen!

But yes definitely, it is exceptionally humid feeling outside - in fact, I'd go as far as saying it is probably one of the most humid feeling days we've had all year - very clammy and muggy feeling - could well be an uncomfortable night sleep, irrespective of temperature.

I'm surprised ESTOFEX issued a severe storm warning for much of the UK. Seems to me they're a playing it safe, I reckon they know amongst themselves that today isn't looking favourable for thunderstorms. A risk is a risk I suppose, though there used to be a time when they sometimes never issued a general thunderstorm warning when the conditions looked very favourable for storms here in the UK - for example, Jun 15th when EA and parts of the SE had some intense thunderstorms, some verging on severe. Now, they seem to slap a severe warning down for days where instability is clearly lacking.

In all fairness, even Estofex are saying chances are fairly low, particularly so with reference to thunderstorms. If you note the yellow lightning zone on their map, it is a skinny line, indicating only a small chance of any lightning events. Also bear in mind you do not need thundery events to get tornadoes.

Speaking of which, something convective looks like it is forming along S England, judging by the MetO radar.

Edited October 6, 2009 by Harry

[johnholmes]

thundery is usually used to indicate heavy short sharp bursts of rain as one gets in thunderstorms but without the electric bit?

[Coast]

12z Brest sounding now in:

12z Herkymoo, still waiting......

Camborne's not a complete right-off, but the afternoon is marching on!

[Harry]

That Brest sounding overall looks quite decent - only issue with the Brest one is that some of the weather activity seems to have a fairly strong NE push, so should anything develop I'd have thought it'd avoid us like the plague :lol:

Fairly heavy shower developed in the Channel over the last hour/hour & half - skirting past the Kent coastline at the moment. At least we know there is some potential around, though what of that will affect us...???

Edited October 6, 2009 by Harry

[Harry]

Yes, we have had that discussion before, I'm just asking what Harry means by "..Also bear in mind you do not need thundery events to get tornadoes". I'm talking about the use of the word 'thundery' in this context.

My definition of thundery in that sense, albeit arguably a hypocritical definition from me, was that of the cloud formation. I.e you don't necessarily need a Cb {producing thunder and lightning :lol:} to get waterspouts/funnel clouds/tornadoes.

Edited October 6, 2009 by Harry

[maidstone weather]

first sferics of the day, and quite a few of them, just north of the Humber.

[Lewis]

Got a nice thunderstorm brewing and about it hit me now in hull

will keep you updated

[Will storm]

Some very large anvils building to my north just visible through the broken cloud.

The suns out now

[sunny scunny]

Got a nice thunderstorm brewing and about it hit me now in hull

will keep you updated

Lucky you :unsure: A little rain here would be nice,but maybe later this evening

[Beverley Lass]

Cracking thunderstorm here (near Beverley,E. Yorks)

Torrential rain the last 15 mins.

Feels amazingly warm too at 15 degrees C right now.

(Y'day you could see your breath in the morning air.)

BL

[Lewis]

ROTATION, scud and rotation..... theres gunna be a funnel in this baby!!!

Edited October 6, 2009 by Lewis

[sunny scunny]

Very dark here and it's absolutely hammering it down :unsure:

It's a monsoon

Edited October 6, 2009 by sufc

[The PIT]

Nothing her eof interest at all. Quiet calm warm.

Although it maybe raining in a bit despite nothing being on netweather radar.

Edited October 6, 2009 by The PIT

[sunny scunny]

There's been 3 torrential downpours in the last hour.Absolutely hammering down now

It's that bad here that the cars are coming to a standstill on the main road :unsure:

Hugh flash of lightning this is awesome

Edited October 6, 2009 by sufc