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Harry

By Harry
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

It has chucked it down this afternoon. Peak in Burgess Hill was running at 1.71mm/min. Eastbourne has seen almost 7mm since lunchtime but non of it has come with thunder, lightning or rotation! :whistling:

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

That is some pretty serious intensification of the 2nd batch of rainfall - really gathered and organised itself in the last 30 mins or so.

This is an example of thundery rain - without the thunder, lightning, sudden gusty winds and most likely hail also. Just thought I'd that also ;):whistling: (though am hoping there will be some thunder, just to add)

;)

nicely said Harry...

Thundery rain down South...

Drizzle here and cold

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Storms really kicking off across north france into the low countries , a nasty patch of rain developing across the south moving east!!

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=188&y=265

Nasty!!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted

Check out the MetO radar between 1630 and 1700 paying close attention to France...now THAT is intensification!

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Sno' problem Aficionado

Sno' problem

Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
Posted

That band of ppn to the East of the IOW is really intense now! Any reports of thunder?

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Mike Storm Apprentice

Mike Storm

Posted
  • Location: Crayford Kent :) 30m AMSL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Crayford Kent :) 30m AMSL
Posted

wow thats the biggest bit of red ive ever seen on the net weather radar! heading for Maidstone !

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Sno' problem Aficionado

Sno' problem

Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
Posted

Looking really hefty on the radar, looks like it will be a treacherous rush-hour in the South East....Take care all!!!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Check out the MetO radar between 1630 and 1700 paying close attention to France...now THAT is intensification!

H, have a look at that beefy thunderstorm thats growing to the west of Paris...strewth! that one should come with a government health warning about the dangers of steroid abuse in thunderstorms!...lol

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

H, have a look at that beefy thunderstorm thats growing to the west of Paris...strewth! that one should come with a government health warning about the dangers of steroid abuse in thunderstorms!...lol

Looks like the far South has had its large share of the rain now at last. Very intense in places.

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Fitzwis Enthusiast

Fitzwis

Posted
  • Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
Posted

Good evening all...bright flash of lightning just witnessed to my South accompanied by distant thunder :-) ... Had a fair deluge of rain this morning and judging by the Meteox radar, we've got more on the way...

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

I see the French get all the fun again today into tonight according to ESTOFEX who put them under a storm watch, just the other side of the Channel. Who'd have thought 30 miles of water would make so much difference? :D

Mind you, see what the GFS have for Southern England this evening:

Rmgfs216.gif

Rmgfs246.gif

ukstormrisk.png

and a bit of 'Marge Simpson's hair' going on according to others:

PGNE14_CL.gif

A long shot I think :D

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_18_00Z.png

Although what's this going on?

gfs_spout_eur21.png

I just don't know what to make of it all!!!! :D

ASII_20091009_0715.png

Over to you clever people.....

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maidstone weather Newbie

maidstone weather

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted

From what I can see, looks like the southeast has a chance this evening? :D

I shall be in Kent from about 6pm tonight until early Sunday so fingers crossed something happens - or will it be a case of me bringing my storm shield home with me? :D

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

or will it be a case of me bringing my storm shield home with me?

:D Please don't MW!!!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Already some showers running out of France towards the SE at the moment.

As Estofex has a storm risk over N France, I suppose this is where any storm risk for the SE will come from? Or will it be more from the CF pepping up?

Either way - it was a beautiful day yesterday, and a stunning morning as well...that swiftly disappeared :D

COME ON GFS!!! Interestingly, the LightningWizard.com chart has the SE under a fairly notable tornado/spout zone too...could be interesting watching today's developments, especially so as I thought there was nowt to watch (other than the torrential rain piling in to Rep of Ireland at the moment!!!)

UPDATE - Precip really getting going now just off the Kent/Sussex coast - looks like it's going to swerve by though :D

Also, precip gathering near the IoW which looks more like hitting land, the rainfall towards the SW is gathering some momentum too and intensifying, while the rain across RoI, well, flooding I think will be a distinct problem IMO considering what they had on Tues/Weds!!!

Edited by Harry
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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Not sure where you are getting these storm ideas from , this forum is the only place talking about it... Doesn't even feel or look remotely thundery outside , nothing developing storms wise across north france either

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Not sure where you are getting these storm ideas from

:rolleyes: See Netweather - first again!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Not sure where you are getting these storm ideas from , this forum is the only place talking about it... Doesn't even feel or look remotely thundery outside , nothing developing storms wise across north france either

Well if those developing showers in the Channel currently are anything to go by, there is certainly potential there NS!

True there may not be sferics detected yet, however there has been some rapid intensification in the last hour - see radars! You don't simply get that on a boring, non active, cold day do you?? And since when has thundery feeling been the best indicator?

Also, if you revert to Coast's charts which were posted earlier, you can see more than one chart is keen on some pretty decent precip, with a 50% chart for some areas of the SE on the storm risk!

The situation to me appears to be thus - We have a rapidly approaching Cold/Occluded front from the West, preceded by an elevated occlusion, a warm front encroaching from the South, with the charts pointing at them all colliding and forming an area of LP somewhere around the SE! What model would be confident of the outcome? :rolleyes: MetO going for heavy rain especially to the S and E of London, but thats about it.

EDIT - Downpours really going for it just off of the Kent coast, actually making landfall now!

Edited by Harry
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Tony Gilbert and Paul K on UKWW have mentioned risk in SE this evening.

It seems to me that the risk is based on a very bouyant atmosphere; I think it's going to be wet, and the clouds will get up to about 350hPa; but, as for electrification - I don't think so, very small CAPE, and large CIN seems to rule it out for me. Could get the odd rumble, perhaps, but not a storm, I think.

That said K, and TT, look condusive to storm formation, and decent electrification - if they can get going - which, I think, will be based on shear at the surface (funnel clouds not ruled out - but not likely) and at around 700hPa -which might give enough energy to get past the incredible Tdd at around 400hPa - but I doubt it. Shear doesn't look that great in those terms.

Nice to see some rain, though :rolleyes:

Edited by VillagePlank
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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Interesting... Anyhoo will wait n see :rolleyes:

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Herstmonceux don't seem to be outputting data from soundings for a couple of days now so I can't get an up to date Skew T to see what's going up there.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted

at last! a sferic from the torrential stuff in the Channel - sadly destined for France rather than SE UK (as usual!!)

Lovely intensification - CRAP direction!!

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Lovely intensification - CRAP direction!!

Agreed ! , pah :)

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