Friday 13th / Sat 14th Storms

[VillagePlank]

Webcam , down south west

http://www.exmouthcam.co.uk/webcam/

... some eight hours ahead of said forecasted event. Useful? Errr ... not really - maybe later.

[dogs32]

Its not a tree thats come down in Glos BUT a Lampost on a road...

more sferics towards Plymouth

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

[DAVID SNOW]

IN any event I suspect someone, somewhere is going to get it tonight.

shhhhhhhh, the wife may hear you

[Neilsouth]

... some eight hours ahead of said forecasted event. Useful? Errr ... not really - maybe later.

???

I was just posting what it's like down there atm , no need for that tone VP

[Lewis]

Hi Lewis. Thanks a lot, i will try it now with the Portsmouth News item. Expecting trouble there tonight and tomorrow, they say the whole of Portsmouth being put on flood alert!

Never known that before.

www.portsmouth.co.uk/newshome/Flood-warnings-as-forecasters-predict.5823765.jp

Not sure if that's right or not?

Yep thats right, although since the upgrade on this forums software, it no longer shows just www. as urls. So if the link you copy and paste into your post does not have http:// infront of it, just add it to the front of the url like this http://www.weatherinhull.com

[Just Before Dawn]

Hi Lewis. Thanks a lot, i will try it now with the Portsmouth News item. Expecting trouble there tonight and tomorrow, they say the whole of Portsmouth being put on flood alert!

Never known that before.

www.portsmouth.co.uk/newshome/Flood-warnings-as-forecasters-predict.5823765.jp

Not uncommon Coldfingers - it's often a reflection on the state of a city's surface water drainage system and how quickly the weakest parts of the system are overwhelmed by heavy rain. IN this set of circumstances the added leaf litter and debris might increase problems in piped culverts, for example. Good luck.

[dogs32]

we have power cuts somewhere in Glos as some lines have gone down

[VillagePlank]

???

I was just posting what it's like down there atm , no need for that tone VP

No tone there, mate -

[Iceberg]

Thanks for that dogs forgot that NW has it's own sferics map.

That pulse coming up looks electric as well, wonder how many people will be without power come tomorrow.?

[coldfingers]

A link to check for anyone interested in wind speeds around Selsey/Bognor Area. Shows wind steadily rising already but it isn't due to get severe for quite a few hours yet.

http://www.chimet.co.uk

Edited November 13, 2009 by coldfingers

[VillagePlank]

we have power cuts somewhere in Glos as some lines have gone down

Couldn't possibly be true - haven't you read the recent posts. A bit of wind, not much to worry about, really.

(Now, there's some 'tone')

[dogs32]

Thanks for that dogs forgot that NW has it's own sferics map.

That pulse coming up looks electric as well, wonder how many people will be without power come tomorrow.?

good map that one....

Im surprised not many are reporting about the winds as some of these are quite strong....we have a lampost that as fell across a road and power out at Dursley but I might have the town name incorrect

[Polar Bear]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8358530.stm

one of you may have already posted this......bbc news - worst storm to come...

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

We shall see...

I just watched a webcam from down south west and it looked blowy , people walked normaly for a windy day... In the 87 hurricane i had difficulty standing up lol

Now i wasn't alive in '87 (generally considered a Q-100 event) but id put my best estimate at 1 in 20 this will be equally bad or worse, so pretty unlikely, gales & severe gales by the sea seem a more likely scenario.

We'll just have to see.

Im gunu sleep with my window open anyway, i like to take my risks, its never that windy here.

[Polar Bear]

http://news.bbc.co.u.../uk/8358530.stm

one of you probably has posted this already..bbc says worst storm to come of the year....

Edited November 13, 2009 by Polar Bear

[Neilsouth]

People should move valuables and irreplaceable items such as passports, certificates and wedding photos upstairs and out of the way ...

I live in a bungalow lol oh ! no stairs LOL

Edited November 13, 2009 by neilsouth

[VillagePlank]

Thanks for that dogs forgot that NW has it's own sferics map.

That pulse coming up looks electric as well, wonder how many people will be without power come tomorrow.?

Yes. It's not the 'headline' low pressure we have to worry about; it's the convective zones embedded within it. Of course, most LP have convective zones, but tonights one seems to have a rather excessive one or two.

For sure, it will be hit or miss, but if you get hit, IMHO it will be scary. There is a heightened risk (see estofex and torro) of tornadoes, of squalls, of hail.

Whilst many will 'poo-poo'- my comments, there is a risk to life. It might be small in terms of spatial distribution, but it is there, tonight.

And, to be fair, I'd rather make an @rse out of myself, rather than not say it.

Edited November 13, 2009 by VillagePlank

[coldfingers]

Not uncommon Coldfingers - it's often a reflection on the state of a city's surface water drainage system and how quickly the weakest parts of the system are overwhelmed by heavy rain. IN this set of circumstances the added leaf litter and debris might increase problems in piped culverts, for example. Good luck.

Ah! Of course! They were talking in the article though about the risk from flooding due the the high tide combining with a higher storm surge. You are correct about the Victorian (or maybe even older) sewage and drainage systems there.

Thanks for that info on posting the links. I am still a learner on a computer as I am one of the great band of 'wrinklies' now.

[pinball wizard]

Not uncommon Coldfingers - it's often a reflection on the state of a city's surface water drainage system and how quickly the weakest parts of the system are overwhelmed by heavy rain. IN this set of circumstances the added leaf litter and debris might increase problems in piped culverts, for example. Good luck.

Not to mention the fact that Portsmouth is an island and will be exposed to extreme tides made worse by storm surge!!

[Lewis]

Yes. It's not the 'headline' low pressure we have to worry about; it's the convective zones embedded within it. Of course, most LP have convective zones, but tonights one seems to have a rather excessive one or two.

For sure, it will be hit or miss, but if you get hit, IMHO it will be scary. There is a heightened risk (see estofex and torro) of tornadoes, of squalls, of hail.

Whilst many will 'poo-poo'- my comments, there is a risk to life. It might be small in terms of spatial distribution, but it is there, tonight.

And, to be fair, I'd rather make an @rse out of myself, rather than not say it.

Yes fair enough, but people dont listen to you, its the weather and bbc news/radio, all of us on here are interested in the weather and clearly understand the weather, although some may underestimate it, i think they know what to do when its raining to hard, or the wind gets to strong.

Anyhow, its only a strong LP system, i remember last year you making the same statement about life and death and sleep downstairs when you forecasted about 10 inches of snow, when they was only 1 if that.

Lewis

Edited November 13, 2009 by Lewis

[dogs32]

getting very bad winds here ..quite loud at times...maybe some strong gusts are comming up from the Severn Estuary

Edited November 13, 2009 by dogs32

[VillagePlank]

Yes fair enough, but people dont listen to you, its the weather and bbc news/radio, all of us on here are interested in the weather and clearly understand the weather, although some may underestimate it, i think they know what to do when its raining to hard, or the wind gets to strong.

Anyhow, its only a strong LP system, i remember last year you making the same statement about life and death and sleep downstairs when you forecasted about 10 inches of snow, when they was only 1 if that.

Lewis

I don't recall that. Are you sure it was me? Snow is certainly no reason to sleep downstairs.

(EDIT and for the SE there was over a foot in places, not the one inch - have you marked the wrong man??? I might ramp every now and again but normally it's based on skew-t charts and some sort of speculative evidence. I think I have a tutorial lurking around somewhere ....)

Edited November 13, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Just Before Dawn]

Ah! Of course! They were talking in the article though about the risk from flooding due the the high tide combining with a higher storm surge. You are correct about the Victorian (or maybe even older) sewage and drainage systems there.

Thanks for that info on posting the links. I am still a learner on a computer as I am one of the great band of 'wrinklies' now.

Well, an abnormally high tide is a potential contributory factor given low pressure and wind direction, though these things often have to have crackerjack timing to be really significant - tidal lock on storm water outfall pipes is also something to think about. Most Metropolitan councils are pretty hot on this kind of surface water flooding risk after 2007.

[winter watcher]

Evening all its been a long time in comeing but i think this could be the big one for us down here just been watching developements over the last 24 hours and unless there is a sudden change in track which can happen even at this stage we are in for a pasteing i only usally refer the term pasteing when we get heavy snow lol as i have said i have been looking at developements over the last 24 hours and was expecting to wake up this morning and this storm to downgrade but through the day i keep looking and the word bomb comes to mind this is a very serious lp system that is rapidly intenseifing and one i firmly believe that will have many remembering for years to come. Surrey had a very heavy spell off wet weather this morning with heavy rain lasting for three hours. I live by a local river and passed through last night and the level was nothing to be concerned about but after this morning walked the dog and it really has risen. All in all i got to be honest i am and am not looking foward to this because the river at the back looks like it may burst if we get another spell off heavy rain and second i live in a poorish area alot off houses including mine are not well structured. Sorry about the spelling mistakes but no spell checker will download later and will update you on events. Good luck and god bless.

[johnholmes]

I've updated the blog using 18z data

still on track-still deepening