Model Output Discussion

[Iceberg]

The GFS Alternative comes to the rescue !. OR not a near miss. !

Edited December 5, 2009 by Iceberg

[Snowyowl9]

Its prob this your after-

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.fcst.html ( 200 mb jet)

Although im sure net weather extra has the same info-

S

I`ve found what I was looking for and more,just how I remember seeing it.

It`s on the site I showed.

Thanks for that link.

As for GFS 12z!!

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2161.png

[Mark Bayley]

The GFS Alternative comes to the rescue !.

Unfortunately the high sinks and the main cold ends up just missing us. Everything's still to play for. Lets see what the euros and ensembles have to say

[bluearmy]

pretty good synergy between the op and parallel (unfortunately). too much energy to the north (as sm has often alluded to in the past). at least we have the straw to cluth that the arctic pattern isnt always well modelled which gives us a chance that things could be placed further west in time (though its more likely to be further east).

[winter watcher]

There's always something though Nick.

Every year we have some reason why we dont get cold.

[/quote

Alot off calm heads are needed here for this situation i think. Yes it can go wrong for instance 2005 but at the same time it can get better look back a week ago this type off set up was being thrown up and alot was quick to dismiss this. Which fair play you hardly see a good decent chart make it through to the reliable timeframe. This set up actually does make me smile if you look on the plus side its only the beginning off december second point is that the background signals are pointing for this type off set up and third point is that if there is a time to see these short waves its now theres a long way to go but im with teits on this situation we have more than a decent chance off seeing something special here and i am enjoying every minuite off this. JUST KEEP THE FAITH. Just to add all those who is quick to say its all over just lets see what the ecm has to say for christ sake its only 1 run.

Edited December 5, 2009 by winter watcher

[MR EXTREMES]

perhapes it would be harsh to say this but once again reading so far out on the model outputs ends up in dissapointment.

im glad i was right to diss count lastnights exciting runs just another reality check.

but still it will be a little more settled with frost which the met office suggested but no special christmas white out looks likely now.

but im sure something will show again soon.

[phil nw.]

It can do but also this is a possibility and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise given recent history, we'll have to see what the euros do but if the shortwave appears and verifies i'm going to put away my ear muffs and bobble hat!

There`s the little B***** Nick.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

As soon as i spotted that i thought here we go again.It may change as we are just far enough away from that .

However IB makes a good point about the lack of a driving Low in Europe to in effect hold the High up and get the cold further West.

On this run it all looks a bit messy and if it goes this route it`s back to the "faux Cold "set up.

Hopefully something better from the Euros soon.

[guitarnutter]

PTB 9, Deal or No Deal?

HI THERE SORRY TO BUT IN ON HERE BUT IF ANYONE COULD SOME UP WHATS GOING ON IN ENGLISH PLEASE FOR THIS NEWBIE. HAVE NOT GOT USED TO ALL THE WEATHER JARGON YET

I THINK YOUR CAPS LOCK IS BROKEN

[The Eagle]

UKMO is not as bad. Sign of undercutting at 144hrs

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

Still leaves a bit to be desired though.

[MR EXTREMES]

PTB 9, Deal or No Deal?

I THINK YOUR CAPS LOCK IS BROKEN

that is a very sexy chart but i think its just a little over the top lol.

[Cal]

Uk Meto not bad

[cooling climate]

That is from the 06z run this morning.

UKMO looks good to me. Very good.

[nick sussex]

The ukmo looks okay and no shortwave.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=&ech=144&carte=1021

This brings D-Day much closer, if the ukmo had a 168hrs then that would signal whether its get the coal in or ring the prozac hotline!

[MR EXTREMES]

Thats the mornings chart mate

wolly hats if that chart came of lol.

[Mark Bayley]

perhapes it would be harsh to say this but once again reading so far out on the model outputs ends up in dissapointment.

im glad i was right to diss count lastnights exciting runs just another reality check.

but still it will be a little more settled with frost which the met office suggested but no special christmas white out looks likely now.

but im sure something will show again soon.

But only the GFS has come out!

The UKMO doesn't look to bad and we have yet to see the essembles. I agree with you that its not the likely scenario (easterly) but i still think its very possible. We shall have to see what the ECM, ECM essembles, GFS essembles etc.. come out with later.

[Solar Cycles]

The situation remains the same after this run; unless a trigger low runs under the High to back the cold West, then we will be under a mid-latitude High which will probably take a fair bit of shifting.

I concur Ian, without it, it looks like Greece could again benefit

[Iceberg]

GFS ENS are CR^P, don't both looking, nearly all of them have the shortwave on and some to more degree than the ops.

METO is good though, but doesn't tend to have shortwave detail on at 144.

It could be just a bad 12Z run from GFS or if ECM backs it up the begining of the end of a non-existant cold spell

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, when GFS 12Z had updated to about T+168 I saw that as a real barrier. The chart shows a huge zone of high pressure from southern Spain up to northern Scandinavia. Even if the highest pressure is centred over Scandinavia, without any fall in pressure to the south, at most we are going to pick up a very sluggish easterly flow with the zone of highest pressure sinking slowly south to our east.

Some kind of depression or shortwave needs to head across to our south in order to pull that very cold air across from the east. The high pressure to our south is a bigger factor than the temporary shortwave that the GFS has spanwed to the north.

[Big Innes Madori]

There's always something though Nick.

Every year we have some reason why we dont get cold.

[/quote

Alot off calm heads are needed here for this situation i think. Yes it can go wrong for instance 2005 but at the same time it can get better look back a week ago this type off set up was being thrown up and alot was quick to dismiss this. Which fair play you hardly see a good decent chart make it through to the reliable timeframe. This set up actually does make me smile if you look on the plus side its only the beginning off december second point is that the background signals are pointing for this type off set up and third point is that if there is a time to see these short waves its now theres a long way to go but im with teits on this situation we have more than a decent chance off seeing something special here and i am enjoying every minuite off this. JUST KEEP THE FAITH. Just to add all those who is quick to say its all over just lets see what the ecm has to say for christ sake its only 1 run.

"JUST KEEP THE FAITH. Just to add all those who is quick to say its all over just lets see what the ecm has to say for christ sake its only 1 run"

Ah Dubya Dubya! that tickled me mate!

Wise words indeed

Big Innes

[Tn9]

I concur Ian, without it, it looks like Greece could again benefit

I bet if we could look at the Greeks weather boards the cold lovers in there are going 'come on baby ,spit that shortwave out',the sad thing is, it usually does

[bluearmy]

its clear from the ens that the GFS 12z suite has picked up a signal for there to be more energy in the atlantic jet later this week and for it to head ne rather than se. its probably as simple as that. take into account that this follows the trend from the 06z run. whether the run is correct will be known by tomorrow when we will have seen more runs from other models and also GFS. GEM may well have picked the signal first again. however, unless ecm 12z heads in this direction, i will hold onto the hope that GFS is plain wrong.

[winter watcher]

UKMO is not as bad. Sign of undercutting at 144hrs

http://www.meteociel...ch=6&carte=1021

Still leaves a bit to be desired though.

I think its better than not bad very good actually. No sign off the gfs shortwave which i think the gfs has a very nasty habbit off over playing these. Very good run as i said around 15 minuites ago just keep the faith. These situations are bound to be shown good or bad it what we as weather watchers makes us addicts and keeps us comeing back year on year for the thrill. I still think we are in a very good situation and unless we see a clear trend showing the same synario off these short waves being progged and not just 1 run it all bodes well for us.

[Cheese Rice]

If the GFS is correct wouldn't we see something similar to Dec/Jan with cold surface air, last year came pretty close to some serious cold and it missed us, but that didn't stop many areas achieving sub-zero days and recording breaking cold. It seems that an easterly is becoming more and more likely and although where the cold is changes from each run the idea of cold prospects ahead is still there. There's no point getting too caught up on each run as there are so many details yet to be resolved, apart from the fact this si all in FI so nobody can say where the cold will be or where the high pressure is, were only likely to know several day before not 10 days before.

Anyway if we do miss the bulk of the cold it would support the METO charts from there winter forecast http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/world/seasonal/index.html, with most of the cold to our east and south of the UK

[snowpara]

still lookin good models know whats gonna happen and they keep showin us happy days

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think its better than not bad very good actually. No sign off the gfs shortwave which i think the gfs has a very nasty habbit off over playing these. Very good run as i said around 15 minuites ago just keep the faith. These situations are bound to be shown good or bad it what we as weather watchers makes us addicts and keeps us comeing back year on year for the thrill. I still think we are in a very good situation and unless we see a clear trend showing the same synario off these short waves being progged and not just 1 run it all bodes well for us.

Also see my above post which follows on from Ian Brown's previous observation. The UKMO at T+144 has a trigger low to our SW that could undercut the high and bring the cold air across from the east.

However I don't trust the UKMO at T+144.